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Mailbag: Glavine’s Effectiveness
January 20, 2008 – 8:15 amKenny wrote:
Is Tom Glavine going to make a legit difference on the starting staff this year? I love Tommy, don’t get me wrong, but he looked very below average by seasons end with the Mets. I’m hoping he’s got a good year or two left, but whats everyone else’s opinion?
This is somewhat of a speculative answer, as I haven’t talked to Tommy personally and haven’t seen him pitch. That said, I have heard Frank Wren address this question. I’ll echo his thoughts and then add some of my own.
One of Wren’s big things he mentioned about Glavine was the number of quality starts last season. A quality start is when a pitcher completes six innings and does not allow more than 3 earned runs. Wren pointed out that even though Tommy had a bad ending to the season, he had a very high number of quality starts throughout the season (I’ve looked for 10 minutes and can’t find the actual stat anywhere). Obviously Wren feels that Tom has some gas left in the tank.
My personal opinion is that Tom has a bit more in him - forget the “end of the season” thing. We have seen more and more frequently the Cy Young winners of yesterday play into their forties. Glavine is no different. He’s been a fairly effective pitcher for the Mets and while he’s not as good as he once was (I don’t expect a Cy Young out of him next year), he still can fill the three-spot in the rotation quite effectively. If we get the identical season he gave the Mets last year (13-8, 200.3 IP, 4.45 ERA), we get better stats than we got out of our rotating 3 spot last year. He’s stable for most of the year, and will get us into our bullpen, and that’s what matters at this point. He won’t look like 1998, when he won 20 games and the Cy Young, but he doesn’t have to. I’m perfectly happy with a consistent pitcher who can contribute at the level he’s at now.
Not to mention the fact that he can help Chuck James develop as a left-handed pitcher. I think we’ll see Chuck have a better season simply because Glav is around.
Just because Glavine had a couple crappy starts at the end of the season doesn’t mean he’s got nothing left. It just means he had some crappy starts, and they happened to be at the end of the season. Glavine has some more left in the tank, and I am looking forward to having him back.
Posted in Mailbag |
By Matt on Jan 20, 2008 | Reply
Also, don’t forget that not only did Tom have a frustrating season to the 2007 season, but so also did the entire Mets team….in fact, there collapse was the worst in Major League History.
Being around a franchise that’s losing has a tendency to promote only one thing: more losing. So, it is not suprising to see Glavine have a frustrating conlcusion to his season.
Hopefully being back around the Braves organization will help Glavine bounce right back, especially given the front office’s attention to putting together a quality team this off-season.
By Amanda on Jan 21, 2008 | Reply
I looked over Glavine’s pitching log and it looks like he had 23 quality starts last season. Here’s a bit of a breakdown of the quality starts. (yes, I have no life and WAY too much time on my hands. Heh)
In those quality starts he gave up …
0 earned runs: 4 times
1 earned run: 8 times
2 earned runs: 5 times
3 earned runs 6 times
In those quality starts he pitched …
6 innings: 11 times
6.1 innings: 2 times
7 innings: 7 times
7.2 innings: 1 time
8 innings: 2 times
By Amanda on Jan 21, 2008 | Reply
…Wait…I can’t add. lol.
I screwed up on the ERs given up.
Okay…
0 ER should be TWO times (not 4)
1 ER should be NINE times (not 8 )
2 ER should be SIX times (not 5)
Don’t ask me how I screwed that up…
I had the correct number for the 3 ER
And had the correct number for the innings.
By Joey Smith on Jan 23, 2008 | Reply
Yeah, quality starts, in my opinion, is Tommy’s most important stat. And I believe he had the 4th highest number in MLB last year (could be wrong).
People who don’t really know baseball say to me often that they don’t want Glavine based on his performance last year. However, if you look at his entire year and consider if *we* had him last year giving the exact same performance, then we are winning the division in ‘07.
He just shouldn’t be judged by a year-end TEAM-WIDE implosion. Plus, look at the number of “loses” he had last year with the Mets offensive scoring one or less run. A pitcher’s “L” column doesn’t happen in a vacuum.
Here’s hoping he eats up some innings this year!
Smitty