Handicapping The Outfielders

Written by Colin on March 13, 2008 – 12:43 pm

We all know that Jeff Francoeur and Mark Kotsay have their positions locked down. Francoeur remains the face and future of the Braves’ outfield, and Kotsay is the veteran bridge until Jordan Schafer is deemed ready for big-league play. Over in left field we’ve got a slightly different situation. Matt Diaz platooned last year with Willie Harris and put up some decent numbers of his own (a .338 average, a .368 on base percentage, 12 HRs and 45 RBIs).

The question this year is whether Diaz gets his own starting gig in left or platoons with another player. The lead candidate for the possible platoon, at least prior to the start of Spring Training, was Brandon Jones. He’s left-handed, and he has had success in the minors. This spring though, he’s seemed anxious at the plate, striking out too frequently (7 times in 24 at bats).

Some would argue that even had Brandon Jones not written himself out of the playing situation that Diaz deserves to play a full season by himself. He’s certainly a capable offensive player - and even though Terry Pendleton says he wouldn’t teach anyone to start batting the way Diaz does, something has to be working.

Here’s an interesting statistic.  Since the start of 2006, out of all players in the majors with at least 650 at-bats, the players with the highest batting averages are as follows:

Ichiro - .3365 Diaz - .33282 Jeter - .33280

This suggests that Diaz is among one of the better hitters in the game. Now most of his starts come against left-handers, but he’s not half bad against the right-handers either.  In 2007, he went 51-146 with 6 HRs for a .349 avg against left-handers. Against right-handers, he went 37-110 with 3 HRs for a .336 avg. His OPS (on base plus slugging) was .932 against lefties and a respectable .813 against righties. I think Diaz is ready for a full-time job, and I believe Cox thinks he could handle it. We’ll see how it unfolds, but right now I think there’s a higher probability he finds himself in left permanently.

We recently had a question to the mailbag about whether or not Josh Anderson could outplay Mark Kotsay for the center field job. I don’t think that’s even a possibility at this point - Kotsay may not have the range Andruw had (or Anderson has), but he has a great arm and the Braves will give him his opportunity. I know some of us are concerned that he’s going to hurt his back playing hard, but he’ll get the starting job out of spring training. I think Anderson will be one of the four players coming off the bench heading out of spring training.

I’ve written enough - but those are our outfielders. Diaz, Kotsay, and Francoeur should be our starters, and we’ll go from there. I expect Anderson will be the main backup, with maybe Jones playing another role. But he needs more development time. A little more patience wouldn’t hurt him.


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