The Deadline Looms

Mark Teixeira may have been the most noteworthy move that the Braves will make before today’s 4pm trade deadline, but Frank Wren and the Braves organization still have some potential moves to make.  With Teixeira gone to the Angels in exchange for Casey Kotchman, it’s time to look more towards starting to rebuild the team for the 2009 season.  The Braves are in definite sell mode, so here are some quick highlights of the thoughts and rumors that are going around:

Will Ohman - The likelihood that Ohman makes it to the deadline as a Brave is pretty low.  There are a few teams interested in the relief he can provide, including the Cardinals who just happen to be in town.  How strange would it be to be traded to the visiting team while they were here?  Trading Ohman seems like one of Wren’s more likely moves today.

Mark Kotsay - I hadn’t really thought much about the Braves trading Kotsay, but Mark Bowman gives a 50% chance that he’ll be traded before the deadline.  Bowman also indicates that he may stick around until August.  I don’t really know what to think about this one either way.

Jason Bay - There has been some talk in the interest of acquiring Jason Bay from the Pirates, but with the talks going on between the Bucs and the Marlins/Red Sox, I don’t see much chance of this happening this season.  I could see an offseason move to help acquire a power-hitting outfielder. Update: The Pirates are still shopping Bay around to other teams but the Braves have not come up in talks. Update 2: Looks like Bay is going to the Red Sox in a trade that is sending Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers.

Starting Pitching - Don’t look for any moves on the starting pitching front today as Wren is more in sell mode to see what he can make out of our roster for the rest of the season.  Some names that have been tossed around for next year are possibly trying to obtain Sabathia, Sheets, or Lackey to help bolster the starting rotation.  With Hudson likely gone for part of next year.  This will be a big one to look out for for next year.

Completed NL East Trades:
Mark Teixiera to the Angels, Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek to the Braves.
Gaby Hernandez to the Mariners, Arthur Rhodes to the Marlins.

There’s what I have time to throw out there right now, I will keep updating as the day goes on.  In the meantime, let us know the rumors you hear and the thoughts you have about the Braves at the trade deadline.

Hudson Likely Needs Tommy John

After his visit to two doctors this week, it looks like Tim Hudson will be in need of Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.  Hudson will likely make a decision in the next week or two as to whether or not to have the surgery procedure that would put him out for the rest of this season and likely half of next season.

Hudson has indicated that he wants to avoid having the surgery and will attempt to “tough it out”, but this is the same attitude taken by Peter Moylan earlier in the season and he ended up having the surgery a few weeks later.  As far as I’m concerned, if both doctors are of the opinion that the surgery needs to happen, he should go ahead and get it done so that we can at least try to get him back for the last few months of the 2009 season.  We’ll see what Dr. Andrews has to say in Hudson’s visit tomorrow.

What do you think?  Should Hudson go ahead and have the surgery?

Welcome To Atlanta, Casey

Welcome to Atlanta, Casey Kotchman.  You’re our new first baseman, and I think you’ll like it here in Atlanta, where the sweet tea flows like water and “Coke” applies to any soft drink.

This is the home of Bobby Cox.  Chipper Jones.  John Smoltz.  John Schuerholz.

This is the home of winning.  This is a team that’s used to winning and may seem a little disoriented after selling at the trade deadline for the first time in many players’ careers.  We’re not used to not making the playoffs - and there’s a hunger for it here.

There’s a lot of young talent on this team, and I think you’ll fit right in. McCann is a great catcher, Francoeur shows flashes of brilliance, Escobar is a promising shortstop (add extra padding to your glove - he has a cannon), and there are tons of outfield prospects heading our way from the minors.

Bobby will always have your back.  He’ll get ejected for you once or twice if he has to.  He’ll never badmouth you to the media, and he’ll always be yelling encouraging things at you from the dugout.

The fans will like you if you’re friendly.  Hitting well helps that process, but frankly, they want another magnetic personality like Francoeur, McCann, Chipper, Smoltzie, or even Escobar.  Play your cards right and you’ll soon have your own special fan section named something like “Kotchman’s Yachtmen” or something.  We promise it’ll rhyme. We like good young players.

Take some time to look at the people who have played for this organization.  Sit down with Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper, and Terry Pendleton, hear about the old times.  Watch the video of the most remembered play by a firstbaseman in Atlanta’s history - and try to always remember to run faster than Sid.

The future is bright here.  Spirits will be a little dampened when you show up today because this group is used to winning - and that Teixeira guy was a fan and clubhouse favorite.  This group is used to seeing wins on that scoreboard and used to being at the top of the division.  We have some young pitching prospects that are dynamite, and we have a core to build around.  Chipper will always lend help if you ask him - he’s a good guy and fun to be around.  And watch out for Tim Hudson - when he gets back from Alabama he’ll probably organize some sort of prank with you in mind.  Oh, and let Jeff Francoeur take you to the Varsity.  Just don’t get any of the season long slump on you.

Settle in.  Walk around Turner Field and take a look at the retired numbers high above left field.  By the time the end of the season is here, optimism for next year will spring eternal.

We’re glad to have you - and we’re looking forward to the next few years.  Casey Kotchman, welcome to Atlanta - where the players play.

Casey Kotchman was acquired for Mark Teixeira last night from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  In 100 games this year, he’s batting .287 with 12 HRs and 54 RBIs.  He has an OBP of .327 and hits a few doubles, but not many triples.  He’s excellent defensively - only two errors this year for a .998 fielding percentage.  Fans, we think you’ll like him.  If you’re at the stadium soon, give him a hearty Atlanta welcome.

Teixeira Dealt to Angels for Kotchman

The Braves have traded free-agent to be Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in return for Casey Kotchman and pitching “prospect” Stephen Marek. Kotchman, 25, was hitting .287 with 12 homers and 57 RBI’s for the Angels this season. Kotchman, while not having the prowess of Teixeira, is a proven contact hitter and he also plays a good defensive first-base. He should provide the Braves with gap power and could be the ideal #2 hitter if he were to replicate his .372 OBP in 2007. Prospect Stephen Marek, also 25 years old, has a 2-6 record with a 3.66 ERA in 34 relief appearances for AA Arkansas. One bright spot on Marek’s stat line is that he has struck out 57 batters in 46.2 innings pitched this season. He converted to relief this season after starting games last season in High-A. Marek will not be a top prospect for this team but he may help at some point.

2009 Options

Hey guys, just had a few minutes and wanted to make a quick write up of what our team would look like next year and how much money we would have exactly. Thanks to the good folks over at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we have some pretty definitive numbers as far as who’s going to be on the books and who’s not, who’s making what and who’s not. At the same time, several players will be eligible for arbitration (Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur are among them).

So let’s start at the top:

• The current roster salary is approximately $102.5 million
• Mike Hampton is making $15 mill this year with a club option for 2009 worth $20 mill (seriously, this is not a joke). Anyway, there’s a $6 million buyout for which the Rockies are responsible for if the Braves decide not to pick up the option, which I seriously hope they do not. So yeah, Hampton would actually make $6 mill if a team didn’t want him. (Net: -$15 mill)
• Tim Hudson is making $13 million this year and is scheduled to make $13 million next year. However, there is a chance (just a chance, nothing definitive yet) that Hudson would likely have to have the dreaded “Tommy John” surgery. Bad for now, good for the long term. But, like Hampton, Hudson would be eligible for insurance coverage, provided he sat out all year. That would cover half of the expenses, leaving the Braves on the hook for $6.5 million. (Net: Either -$6.5 million or no chance depending on which way the diagnosis goes).
• John Smoltz is making $14 million this year and had an option for 2009 for $12 million, provided he pitched 200 innings in 2008, which he will not. Now the Braves may choose to re-sign him, but I haven’t taken that into account in this blog post (Net: -$14 million).
• Mark Teixeira is making $12.5 million. Frank Wren probably has more experience dealing with Scott Boras than Schuerholz wanted to have, so there’s a chance that negotiations would go well. But dealing with what we have, he does not have a contract for next year so…(Net: -$12.5 mill).
• Chipper Jones is making $15 million and has a 2009 option that may be anywhere from $8 mill to $11 mill, which became a minimum of $10 mill with his All-Star selection. So, we’ll assume $11 mill. (Net: -$4 mill).
• Tom Glavine is earning $8 mill this year, will be a free agent next year. (Net -$8 mill).
• Mark Kotsay is making $8 mill, of which the Braves are on the hook for $3 mill. There’s a chance he could be re-signed, but it would be as a free agent. (Net: -$3 mill)
• Here’s where it gets iffy: Rafael Soriano is making $2.4 mill this year and $6.1 mill next year, that’s a jump of $3.7 mill. (Net: +$3.7 mill)
• Mike Gonzalez is making $2.36 mill this year after avoiding arbitration. He’ll be fully healthy next year and will almost likely get a raise. We’ll assume around $5.5 mill for the sake of this blog (Net: +$2.2 mill)
• Will Ohman is making $1.6 mill this year and will be a free agent (I do hope we re-sign him, but odds are low since the Braves rarely sign middle relievers to high priced contracts (Net: -$1.6 mill).
• Omar Infante is making $1.4 mill this year and is arbitration eligible next year (thankfully). Assuming performance increases and such, we’ll assume $2.5 mill (that might be a little high). (Net +$0.9 mill).
• Matt Diaz is making $1.23 mill and could be re-signed for about the same amount, we’ll say $1.5 mill (Net: +$0.3 mill).
• Brian McCann is making $0.8 mill (paltry for someone that’s doing what he’s doing). His salary will escalate to $3.5 mill next year (Net: +$2.7 mill).
• Greg Norton is making the minimum and could be re-signed for a very low cost next year. But that’s up to management, at this point he will be a free agent (Net: $0).
• Jeff Francoeur is eligible for “Super Two” arbitration due to his amount of playing time being in the top 17% percent of players at his position, and he has more than 2 years MLB experience. I think with his career numbers, the Braves could offer him a contract around $4 or $5 mill (Both are over estimates). (Net: +$4.5 mill).
• Kelly Johnson is eligible for the same arbitration as Francoeur for the same reasons and could be worth about $2.5 mill to 3.5, we’ll go with the over: (Net: +$3.0 mill)
• Everyone else on the current roster is not eligible for arbitration and could be re-signed at a low cost (I hope they offer Jurrjens a contract).
• So add it all up (in millions): $102.5 - $15 - (either $6.5 or$0) - $14 - $12.5 - $4 - $8 - $3 + $3.7 + $2.2 - $1.6 + $0.9 + $0.3 + $3.7 + $4.5 + $3.0 = $62.7 if Hudson pitches next year, $56.2 if he does not. Which leaves the Braves with A LOT of room to make some moves. They could re-sign Smoltz if he thinks he is ready to be back. Glavine could be back if he wanted since the Braves would have a spot. However, there are several targets the Braves could also go after with their loot in the free agent market.

In the 2008-09 offseason, several high ticket, established players will be (unrestricted) free agents. Including, but not limited to:

• 1B: Mark Teixeira, there’s really not much first baseman talent on the market, which bodes well for Tex.
• 2B: Orlando Hudson
• SS:  Rafael Furcal, Cesar Izturus
• 3B: Joe Crede
• C: Ivan Rodriguez, Javier Valentin, Jason Varitek
• OF: Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Mark Kotsay, Manny Ramirez (it looks less and less like the Sox will pick up his 2009 option). Clearly there is talent here.
• SP: Ryan Dempster, Jon Garland, Tom Glavine, Oliver Perez, C. C. Sabathia (Should be target #1), Ben Sheets (Should be target #2).
• RP: Will Ohman, Scott Eyre. Both lefties, but will probably be higher priced than normal.

Anyway, that’s the list, the Braves have about $40-50 million to work with next year and could really use some help on both sides of the ball. Could this be our rebuilding process? It probably is, but we’ll see how committed the Braves are to winning in late November and December when free agency begins.

Can It Get Worse?

I hate to be the person to ask that question, but can it get any worse?  I really don’t want to be the blog of Braves pessimism, but seriously - look at this:

• Chipper’s on the DL with hammy issues
• Tim Hudson may have to have Tommy John surgery - an MRI shows ligament damage in his elbow
• We just blew two leads of at least 5 runs this past weekend.
• We just lost to the Cardinals 12-3.
• Jair Jurrjens, as good as he’s been, is now the ace of the pitching staff.
• McCann is out for a bit after a nice concussion.
• 7.5 games out in the NL East.

It’s bad, folks.  Can it get worse?  I want to build for the future and KNOW that we’re going to be better next year.  Akshay’s got an article coming later in the day to that extent.

Word has it that Teixeira will likely be moved soon, so keep an ear to the ground for that.  If you’re the RSS reading type, check http://www.bravesblast.com/feed for our feed to be one of the first to know when something goes down.

Chipper and Huddy To Disabled List

It’s over.  See ya later.  We’re done-skees.  Time to call it a year.

Tim Hudson is on the DL.  Chipper is too.  McCann is missing a few days with a concussion.

And by the time Hudson gets back from the 15 day DL (forearm injury - unspecified) and Chipper’s hammy heals (who knows how long that’ll take), we’re gonna be so far out of first place we couldn’t come back with the entire NL All-Star Team.  And in case you missed it, we don’t have many All-Stars on the team.

Time to pack up shop and turn it in for the year.  Charlie Morton (called up, starts tonight) isn’t much of a replacement for Hudson and Clint Sammons (called up) isn’t McCann. Maybe, just maybe, Jeff Bennett (who was called up from Myrtle Beach) is a good replacement for Jo-Jo Reyes.

Time for the firesale.  Who wants Tex, Ohman, Gonzalez, or Kotsay?  They’re probably very easy to acquire right now.

Am I Going Crazy?

I qualify myself as a die-hard Braves fan.  I’m sure most of the other staff here at BravesBlast does the same, but lately I think I’ve gone to the brink of insanity trying to root for a team that just can’t seem to do anything right.  I think I finally realized it last night when, for the second night in a row, I found myself watching the replay of the game (after having watched it live, mind you) hoping for a different result.  Something’s not quite right about that.  Am I the only one that does that?  Probably.

So the Braves are heading back to Atlanta today to kick off a 4-game series against the Cardinals and at this point, we find ourselves 7.5 back of the division-leading Mets.  I’m pretty sure that’s the farthest out that we’ve been so far this year and I don’t know if we’re really capable of turning things around.  Here’s what we have working against us right now:

• Chipper Jones thinks there’s a good chance that he’ll be returning to the disabled list with his hamstring injury.  That’s pretty much how the season has been going for the Braves.  We all know without Chipper in the lineup, the Braves just seem to struggle to put runs on the board and win.  Although, without him in Philly, we put plenty of runs on the board and still managed to lose.  I am at least impressed with Omar Infante’s play as a fill-in third baseman.
• Brian McCann is out for at least a few games after his collision at the plate with Shane Victorino in yesterday’s game.  BMac has been our one source of stable offensive power in the past month and now we don’t have him in the lineup either.  He was making good use of his time in the cleanup role.  Thankfully, it’s only a mild concussion as the results could have been much worse.
• The team morale is surely low.  I’m not on the team and my morale is low, so I’m sure they’re not feeling all that great about it either.  We finally manage to get the offense going, scoring 19 runs in the last two games.  The only problem?  Philadelphia scored 22.  With those kind of numbers, it doesn’t really matter how many runs you score, it’s going to be hard to get wins on the board.
• Our starting pitching has been mediocre at best.  I understand that it’s a rotation that has been hacked together and rehashed too many times due to countless injuries, but it’s hard to win games when your starters just aren’t having great days.  There are a few young arms out there that have great potential for the future; I just hope they have time to mature while staying in the Braves system.  We however, do need to pick up another mid-veteran arm for the rotation.  And on a side note, the bullpen has been great at helping out as much as possible.

That’s just the tip of the iceberg with what’s working against us this season.  Without sweeping all the games of the homestand, I don’t really think we stand much of a chance at even seeing third place in the division this season, but who knows, crazier things have happened.  Until then, I’ll just sit here, watching the replays of our losses, hoping for a different outcome.

The Mike Hampton Injury Pool

Mike Hampton is slated to start today going to injure himself today in what is no longer extraordinary fashion anymore.  The only question is - how?

Will he:

• Restrain his hamstring?
• Restrain his pectoral?
• Rip a muscle in his arm reacting to warm bird poop hitting the back of his neck?
• Strain a muscle in his back?
• Fall down the stairs?
• Brush his teeth too aggressively?
• Hurt himself tying a cleat?
• Slip in the shower?

Or will he invent new ways to get hurt?  And when will he hurt himself?  Pregame?  Mid first inning?  First pitch?

Place your bets now.  How do YOU think Mike Hampton will find a way to injure himself today?

The Defining Series

This upcoming series with the Phillies is the defining series of the Braves’ 2008 season.  If we sweep this series, we’re in a position to consider buying and making a push for the postseason.  Unfortunately, the more likely outcome is that the Braves lose the series and are solidified as sellers this year.

Chipper Jones is out.  Mark Teixeira can’t carry the offense by himself.  Blanco continues his inconsistency, and the rest of the outfield offers no help.  Jeff Francoeur was even mentioned in trade rumors today - by the Braves’ official website.

It’s not a good time for the Braves.  Kyle Kendrick (8-4, 4.87 ERA) starts for the Phillies tonight and will take on Jair Jurrjens (9-5, 3.22 ERA), who champions the mound for Atlanta.  Tonight, think about Jurrjens, and pray he works with the precision of a surgeon.  That’s as close as I come to “Spahn and Sain, then pray for rain”.

Remember, pray for Jurrjens, something about surgeons.  This is the last stand, folks.

PS - Tomorrow, Mike Hampton is scheduled to start.  We look forward to seeing Buddy Carlyle on the mound in the first.

If We Were In Frank Wren’s Shoes

As we continue to wait and see what happens at the end of this series against the Phillies, we’re looking at what we’d do if we were in Frank Wren’s shoes.  Here’s a breakdown from some of the BravesBlast crew - we’ll add more as we hear back from everyone.

Colin: I’d wait.  Don’t trade Tex - what we’d get for him is likely not better than the 2 draft picks we’d receive if he doesn’t re-sign.  On that note, try and re-sign Tex.  We’ll free up a LOT of space in the budget at the end of the season.

Akshay: Try to get a young, power hitting first baseman or outfielder.

Dan: First, I’d trade Mark Teixeira for a package that would help out this years’ team with a player that can come up in August/September and a prospect for the future.  I’d also get some help for the bench.

Charles: Is start over an option?  I’d trade Teixeira for a pitcher and a bat that are two years away.  I’d let Chipper play until he doesn’t want to anymore, tell Frenchy that if he wants to stay in Atlanta, he needs to figure out how not to be Andruw, see if there is a market for Kotsay, and stop drafting GA high school pitchers - how many of them have worked out?  I’d tell Bobby never to bat Kelly Johnson above the six spot - he’s best at the bottom of the lineup.  I’d retool the outfield and bring speed back to the Braves.  Don’t focus on a quick fix - it’s gonna take 3-4 years to turn around.  Any trade that is made should be made with prospects in mind that are going to take 3 years or so to get ready.

Jonathan: I’d stop worrying about Tex.  See what offers are on the table for him and take one if it seems like the right thing to do.  I’d start looking long-run however.  It’s time to rebuild at this point as the current staff isn’t exactly where we need to be at.  We need another mid-age veteran on the pitching staff to go side-by-side with Hudson and to help nurture the young arms that we have working in there; Jurrjens for example.  Then we need to pick up another bat.  Whether it be keeping Tex or finding another source of power or two, the offense needs some serious help.  We need some players that can be the backup to our main power when it struggles as well.  It’s time to step back and take a look toward the future a few years down the road, not just trying to scrape by on a day-to-day basis.

What would YOU do if you were GM?  Would you wait or do something right now?  Let us know!

Braves Trade Rumor Updates

All indications are pointing towards the Braves taking a passive approach to the non-waiver trade deadline. Here are the Braves related notes I have been hearing as of this morning:

• Mike Gonzalez - The Braves closer has received interest from the Texas Rangers organization. The Rangers, in desperate need of bullpen help would be willing to trade an outfielder for Gonzalez. Outfielders could include David Murphy, Frank Catalanotto, Brandon Boggs or Marlon Byrd. While the Braves need an outfielder, it would be unwise to sell Gonzalez at this low of a price. He has a top-5 closer ceiling, it would be painful to see that production in another organization. Murphy and a top prospect might get the trade done however. For those who do not know David Murphy yet — he is a hard-nosed player that pounds the gaps hard. He will not be an all-star but has some above-average years in him. The rest of that crew would not be an attractive solution to our problems with outfield power.
• Mark Teixeira - The Braves have apparently started to seriously consider moving Teixeira. CBS Sportsline has a report up stating that the Braves have made a list that includes Boston, Los Angeles (AL), Tampa Bay, and Arizona of potential trading partners. These are four organizations with deep minor league systems that could really turn into a bidding war if two or more organizations get involved in this deal. I don’t see how Tampa Bay is interested in this because they have a long term commitment to Carlos Pena who has power and plays great defense, much like Teixeira. Putting one of the two at DH would be a detriment to those two players. A new rumor that was floating around is Robb Quinlan and Brandon Wood of the Angels to the Braves for Teixeira. That is a terrible offer if that is indeed the truth. Quinlan is a career bench player and Wood’s star has burned a lot dimmer in recent years since hitting 43 home runs in 2005 at High-A Ranco Cucamonga. Also, where does Wood fit on this team? He is a third-baseman/shortstop. There isn’t a place for him this season. Los Angeles would be a lot closer offering Casey Kotchmann and Juan Rivera.
• Tim Hudson - His name has been mentioned once, but it is highly doubtful that the Braves would be interested in moving their ace.
• Mark Kotsay - He has just this year left on his contract but has played well despite some injuries.  I have doubts that they could get much for him - but you never know.
• Will Ohman - This is a name that may be mentioned more frequently over the next few days. While I have not heard of any specific deals in which Ohman might be involved in, he has put together a great season and is a lefty. I can’t imagine anything that might make him more attractive.
• Jeff Francoeur was mentioned by Braves.com today in trade rumors - though this may be shocking to some people, he’s not doing well at all.  The Royals may be interested - their GM was formerly in the Braves organization.

It may be 4:01 on July 31st when the baseball world finally knows what the Braves intentions were for this trade season.  Rumors will continue to flutter around and we may not know what’s going on until it happens.

- Dan & Colin