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NL East Review: Mets
Written by Akshay on July 2, 2008 – 4:04 pmI almost feel like I should be writing about the Rays after what they did (again) last night. Is there seriously a better team around right now? I doubt it, I almost wonder how they keep doing it day in and day out. And they’re really not likely to drop off since none of them are rookies and have experienced a full season’s load before.
Anyway, let’s move on to talking about a much worse, more dysfunctional team: The New York Mets. What can I say about them, has there been a worse underachiever in the majors this year? In the top three in team payroll and still cannot even seem competitive. The reality of it is they’re lingering around and have the pieces in place to make a run if they can put it together mentally. New York is only 3.5 games behind the Phillies, one game under .500 and they get to play them this weekend. It’ll be good timing for them as long as the Phils have not severely beaten up the Braves by then.
According to Coolstandings, the Mets have an 11.3 % chance of making the playoffs as the division winner (believe it or not, their chance is less than the Braves’ 13.0 % chance at the 4 spot). They have even less of a chance of winning the wildcard with both Milwaukee and St. Louis sitting at better records than the best team in our division.
The problems with the Mets run pretty deep. Two seasons ago (2006), the Mets built up a HUGE lead by the All-Star break and coasted to the division title, the lead was so big that they were able to withstand a pretty good rally by the Phillies towards the end of that season, who at 85-77 were still 12 games out.
But last year something awesome happened, not necessarily a good awesome, but awesome. The Mets became the first team to blow a lead as much as 7.5 games in September. Yes, they blew a 7.5 game lead in just ONE MONTH! That’s not even 30 games but around 25 or 26 depending on the team.
The Mets really have little to no excuse. They have had less players and less important players injured than any of the other teams in the East. And by important players I mean players that have had a huge impact on the team when they have been in the lineup or on the field. And I’ve narrowed that list down to Ryan Church, Angel Pagan and Pedro Martinez in his first and third start. In fact their projected starter behind the plate didn’t even make it back to the starter’s role after he came off the DL, Ramon Castro is now backing up Brian Schneider.
The Mets’ mediocrity goes beyond injuries though, they’re just flat out not hitting well. They’re sixth in the league in runs (386), ninth in hits (736), 11 in home runs (75), 10 in average (.257) and 11 in OPS (.726). With the exception of runs scored, all of the other values are well below the league averages.
Individually, they are not doing much better. Carlos Beltran has a similar average to his career, but his slugging percentage at .471 is 123 points below his 2006 percentage and about 54 points below his slugging average last year. In fact, his numbers this year are closer to his down year in 2005 than his good years of 2006 and 2007. His ESPN projected end of the year averages show 23 home runs and 107 RBIs. Those are pretty good numbers, but I’m sure Mets fans would love to see more home runs out of their star player than they are seeing now.
Other players that are struggling include David Wright, their other star. Wright is hitting 20 points below his career average at .288 and is slugging 20 points below that average as well at .508. Wright’s struggles are coming with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position (RISP), Wright is hitting .273 and .267 with RISP and 2 outs. Pretty low for a guy that’s supposed to be clutch. Jose Reyes is their only player doing better than his career averages. He is hitting .291 and slugging .471, both higher than his career averages. Reyes, though, just does not have the same stolen base numbers that he did in the past and is outwardly having trouble getting along with new manager Jerry Manuel.
Where would they be if Carlos Delgado would hit anything though? Delgado is hitting .236, about 50 points lower than his career and .432 slugging, about 100 points lower than his average. Delgado has similar halfway stats to his career stats, but was really struggling at the beginning of the season in pressure situations. He drew several boos and has only recently started to come out of his slump at the plate.
The Mets are equally average in the pitching department. They are eighth in ERA (4.17), 12 in walks (309) and 5 in batting average against (.255). Of course, much of their success is because of new acquisition Johan Santana. Of qualifying pitchers, only Santana (6) and John Maine (T-19) are in the top 20 and no more in the top 40, though Oliver Perez is 41 with a 4.98 ERA. Compare that to the Phillies who have four starters in the top 40.
Santana is 7-7 with a 3.01 ERA and 103 strikeouts. Santana came over from the Twins in the off-season and signed a 6 year $150 million contract. Of course, for a pitcher, that’s pretty ridiculous money. The Mets haven’t exactly won all of his starts, in fact they are 4-6 in his last 10 and are 9-8 in his starts this year overall, not worth the $16 million he’s making this year.
So what do the Mets have to do to get better? Simple, find a source of motivation, increase their club chemistry and band together to try and save the job of their general manager and (maybe) manager if they decide to keep him. They have too many players who speak out negatively. Billy Wagner really takes it upon himself to call out other players in a passive aggressive way and there just isn’t the same clubhouse chemistry there was two seasons ago when they won 97 games.
As of right now, the Mets are 41-42 in 83 games and are probably going to end up with a similar record at the end of the season as they do now. Without a change in attitude and chemistry, the Mets will not do much better than they are doing now.
Prediction: 80-82, 4 NL East
-Akshay
Tags: New York Mets
Posted in League Analysis | 1 Comment »
By Andrew Vazzano on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply
WOOO LET'S GO METS
