NL East Review: Braves

Written by Akshay on July 11, 2008 – 6:43 am

I figured this would be a good time to get the review in, what with it being an off-day and all. Let me start off by saying I made a mistake earlier, I should not have said the Muts would be fourth in the division. After watching this team play the past couple of weeks, and with the state they are in right, I would be pleasantly surprised if we finished above where we are right now. To be honest, I feel like this team has regressed instead of progressed.

Who would have thought that Andruw’s absence would have been such a downgrade in power numbers over the past year. It was no surprise we weren’t getting much out of left field, we didn’t last year in terms of slugging and homers. Yeah, Andruw still hit 26 homers and surprisingly had 94 RBI, but about HALF of his at-bats were with runners on and 170 of his 570 at-bats had them in scoring position. Ridiculous, this season, we can’t get guys on, guys aren’t getting over and no one’s driving anyone in.

Yeah, we have the second highest run differential in the East, but about 90% of that is thanks to the ridiculous consistency we are getting from our pitching. How much better would we have been last year with a guy like Campillo (Campillo, btw, is hitting .222, same as Andruw last year, he may have had 90 RBIs batting in the position Andruw did in our line up) or if Reyes didn’t walk every second batter he faced?

2007: Keep in mind,  before you read these stats, these numbers are with Craig Wilson’s 58 at-bats (.172), Scott Thorman’s 287 at-bats (.216), Chris Woodward’s 136 at-bats (.199) and Ryan Langerhans’ 44 at-bats (just three hits in those at-bats, THREE! Julio Franco had that many in ONE game last year). All of those numbers right there are about an entire person’s average for a season, that’s 525 at-bats and 102 hits…seriously those are real numbers, that’s a .194 batting average between three guys. Lots of what-ifs surrounding last year’s team.

In 2007, the Braves finished third in the NL in batting average (.275), and scored the third most number of runs with 810. One of the reasons they were able to do so well was clutch hitting. Guys like Frenchy had ridiculous numbers in the clutch, but we’ll get to those later. With runners on at all, Atlanta hit .284…that went up with runners in scoring position to .291. They hit just .265 with runners and scoring position and two outs, but that was second in the league behind Pittsburgh (.267).

However, last season, just as they do this season, the Braves did hit poorly in close and late situations. Those situations, as described by The Language of Baseball are “situations in a baseball game in the seventh or later inning with the any of the following conditions: score tied. one team leading by a run, or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck.”

In those instances, the Braves came in eighth at .257 with only 112 runs. Compare that to St. Louis who led the league with a .313 batting average and Houston and Philly who both scored 141 runs in those situations.

Fast forward to this 2008, Braves are down two guys that were stalwarts on the field in at least the past two seasons: Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones since 1997. The Braves, after 92 games, are ninth in the league in runs scored (405, Chicago is tops at 487), yet third in batting average(.263, Chicago is tops at .282)…kind of makes you wonder.

As a team, the Braves are .262 with runners on at all, but not even in the top 10 with RISP, they are 11 with a .252 batting average (Chicago again is at #1 at .282) and EVEN WORSE(!) with RISP and two outs; in those situations, the Braves are hitting a paltry .222 (Pittsburgh leads there at .290, LAD is second at .259, pretty big gap).

In late innings at all, the Braves are hitting an eighth-best .250 while Chicago leads the NL again at .276.

It has been obvious what this team needs from about the beginning of June when Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz went down and we could not find suitable replacements that were at least able to slug as much as those guys. Blanco did an excellent job, but there’s a reason Greg Norton’s a bench player (he’s a damn good bench player, but not meant to start) and Brandon Jones, Josh Anderson and Jason Perry can only be good for so long without proper minor league development (which begs the question, did we really bring these guys up to help us or to showcase them for Pittsburgh in case of a deal for Xavier Nady or Jason Bay).

The pitching has been stellar, but has been coming down to Earth a little bit after a great start. We are getting more innings out of our guys, but Charlie Morton isn’t the replacement for Tom Glavine. He’s just not seasoned enough in the minors. Will he be an excellent pitcher next year? Maybe, but I think for us to know for sure he needs to pitch against triple A guys before he comes back here. He has been getting hit around a lot in his most recent starts.

In June, without Glavine’s two starts, the Braves had a 3.86 ERA. However, this month Atlanta has a 4.14 ERA, of course a lot of that has to do with the 81 hits they’ve allowed in 87 innings pitched.

On an individual level:

• McCann hit .270 with 18 homers and 38 doubles, not his usual numbers but they are respectable and solid numbers
• Kelly Johnson hit .276 with 16 homers, 26 doubles, 10 triples and 68 RBIs, pretty solid for someone at the top of the lineup as much as he was.
• Renteria/Escobar hit .329 between the two of them with 85 RBIs.
• Chipper Jones hit .337 with 29 homers and 102 RBI
• Francoeur hit .293 with 19 homers and 105 RBI.
• Diaz didn’t qualify for the batting title, but did hit .338 in 358 at-bats (502 are needed to be eligible at season’s end). Diaz also hit 12 homers and 21 doubles. His platoon-mate Willie Harris hit .270 with 2 homers, but did have 20 doubles and eight triples.
• In his time here, Tex his .317 with 17 homers and 56 RBI in just 208 at-bats. Ridiculous numbers from a guy who was here for just two months and is hitting in a neutral park for half the time.

This season’s been, well, take a look:

•  McCann has hit .290 with 17 homers, 50 RBI and 25 doubles, increase from last season.
• Kelly Johnson has hit .273 with eight homers, 22 doubles, two triples and 37 RBI. An increase in doubles numbers, so a plus.
• Chipper has hit .375 with 18 homers, one triple and 14 doubles. His slugging is down from what he’s used to, but still up there. He’s leading the majors with a 1.100 OPS (On base % plus slugging), obviously a plus.
• Escobar has hit .286 with 12 doubles, six homers and 35 RBI. A down, but understandable for someone in their first full major league season.
• Tex has hit .272 with 17 homers, 21 doubles and 67 RBI, very good numbers, but Tex figures to step it up in the second half of the season, when he is typically at his best.
• Gregor Blanco has been a nice surprise, he is hitting just .266, but has a .368 on base percentage and has shown good patience at the plate and leads the team in in-field hits and stolen bases, perfect for a lead off hitter.
• Now for the disappointments: Francoeur was tabbed by many to have a breakout season…unfortunately he went the other way. Frenchy is hitting .234 and getting close to the Andruw line. He is also getting on base at a clip of just .286, lower than most guys’ averages. He does have 19 doubles and nine home runs and the Braves are desperately hoping that three days in the minors will be enough for him to turn things around.
• There’s a bunch of other guys that have taken over in injury situations, but not many have really made an impact.
• Omar Infante has hit .282 while playing all over the field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch or catch if we have another 17 inning game. He is our third catcher with Diaz out, btw.
• Brandon Jones hit .278 while he was up here, pretty strong for a guy that was getting knocked for not being aggressive enough last season.
• Ruben Gotay (.208), Greg Norton (.206) and Corky Miller (.093) have obviously not been the answer at their positions. Gotay and Norton are great off the bench, both have had solid pinch hits with Norton getting several clutch hits in close and late situations. To be honest, I would have much rather had Brayan Pena behind the plate than Miller if not for Miller’s stellar defense.

On the pitching side, we were on the right track last season when we finished third in the league in ERA. But the addition of Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo and a different Jojo Reyes have shown us that while Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz may have been the dominant three in the ’90s, the three J’s are the future of our rotation now along with Hudson.

•  Last season we had 10 guys make starts, only John Smoltz (3.11) and Tim Hudson (3.33) had sub-4.00 ERAs.
• Chuck James went 11-10 with a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts
• Buddy Carlyle went 8-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 20 starts (but is thriving in his current long-reliever role).
• Kyle Davies went 4-8 with a 5.76 in 17 starts and did have some bright spots, but was ultimately traded for about 7.7 innings of Octavio Dotel.
• With the exception of Jeff Bennett late in the season, no one else that started a game had a sub 6.00 ERA.

This year is different, what started as a promising year filled with plenty of pitching depth has seen us put that depth to the test with several injuries, that’s NOT counting Mike Hampton, whom everyone and their best friend expected to be hurt (no offense Mike, it’s just that it is what it is).

•  Huddy is 9-7 with a 3.16 ERA but the Braves have scored two or less runs in his last four road starts against NL teams (never mind the AL, we might as well just ignore his stats against them since they’ve been putrid since joining the Braves).
• Jurrjens is 9-4 with a 3.00 ERA, has been the co-ace of this staff all year long and deserved a spot on the NL All-Star Roster.
• Jojo Reyes is 3-7 with a 4.40 ERA, but has lost twice 1-0. So really, he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA, but if you take out his first five starts (that’s when he settled in) and count just his last eight, he’s 1-5 with a 3.67 ERA, they just can’t score runs for him. Repeat: He Lost 1-0 TWICE, both times on the road.
• Jorge Campillo has been a great story. In 24 games, the righty is 3-4 with a 3.06 ERA. Again, just not getting any run support, he gets an average of 3.2 runs per game in the games he’s started, pathetic by the offense.

This season more than any other, has seen a cause for concern and panic. As I stated in an earlier article, the Braves have had 14 players with 20 different DL stings this season. Not surprisingly this has tested our Major League depth as well as the guys that are supposed to be ready to come play in the majors. This team may just be too banged up to compete. John Smoltz, a veteran presence on the field, has been sidelined.

Tom Glavine is the same, but is expected back after the All-Star break. Mike Hampton says he’s coming back after the All-Star break, but we won’t believe it until we see it. Hampton by the way is pitching tonight for the M-Braves down in Jacksonville, we’ll have an update as soon as we get a story. Update: Hampton went 5 innings, 6 H, 2 R, 4 Ks, 0 BB and most importantly 0 injuries, he also got one hit at the plate. Who knows, maybe Hampton could provide us with the bat we need…

But we’ll see. To me the team is still an enigma, and if they add a bat like the stats suggest, PLUS get back a healthy Glavine, plus get back a healthy Diaz that is closer to his 2007 form than his current form, plus I dunno…it seems there’s so many things that the Braves could do better.

Prediction: 81-81, 3rd NL East, at this point we’re no better than a .500 team and maybe worse.

-Akshay

Tags: Atlanta Braves, Major League Baseball, NL East Blogs
Posted in League Analysis |