The Final Countdown: 10 Days to Trade

Written by Dan on July 21, 2008 – 3:30 pm

Coming off an ugly 15-6 (and series) defeat to the worst team in the NL East, the Braves are playing very ugly baseball while still on life support sitting six and a half games behind the first-place Mets and Phillies. Coming out of the break, this was the series to make a statement and unfortunately it was the wrong one. The Braves will now play thirteen consecutive games against teams with winning records (@FLA, @PHI, STL and MIL). They will now be challenged and if their play over the past month and a half is any indication, this is going to be a difficult stretch where 6-7 may be a winning scenario.

Monday means that ten days remain until the non-waiver trade deadline and it is certain that the Braves will receive national coverage for their position in trading slugger Mark Teixeira. While I feel that this team is still within reach of coming back, I think that the Braves may be forced into looking at moving Teixeira. There already was talk of a trade with Boston that would effectively swap first-basemen with Kevin Youkilis coming to Atlanta, but I do not see that trade coming back to life. The Braves would be smart to search for suitors on Teixeira now because he will be a free agent at the end of the season. While they will receive two supplemental picks for the loss of Teixeira, the lack of available bats at the deadline could mean that the Braves can pick up a lot more than the equivalent of two early round draft picks. They should be able to pick up a player that is major league ready and a couple of other mid-level prospects. For example, I can conceive a package of SP Justin Masterson or SP Clay Buchholz, 1B Chris Carter and another mid-level prospect from Boston and that would make a lot of sense for each team. Deals can come together in a matter of hours, so it may be Boston or a team that has not even been discussed yet with an attractive package to sell to the Braves for Teixeira.

I fear that the blame for the mess that the 2008 season has become has been placed mostly on injuries. While it certainly plays a part to the failure of the first-half, I am going to argue that some heat needs to be passed to the management of the team. This team was picked my many, including by myself, Peter Gammons and ESPN.com, to be World Series winners. The reason for that was the depth that the pitching and offense had. Generally speaking, the Braves offense and pitching continues to be successful of the 16 National league teams they are presently ranked 2nd in team ERA, 3rd in Team batting average and lead the league in hits allowed. It has just not come together for one reason or another. I criticize Frank Wren & co. for not making a single addition to effect the major league team since acquiring Greg Norton back in May for next to nothing (Brian Lawrence and Jorge Julio have been signed to minor league contracts). With a bench that lacks depth and punch, the front office needed to make a low cost move when things started to go south over a month ago and nothing was done. An example of a low cost pickup could have been Richie Sexson, now a Yankee, who could have been signed for the pro-rated major league minimum at around 200K for the remainder of the season. Immediately his power hitting ability would have been useful on a bench without power and at least his .218 batting average would have already been better than that of current Braves bench dwellers in Norton, Ruben Gotay and Corky Miller. The injuries have been devastating, but the lack of any move at all really has hurt this team and the depth on the bench.

Fortunately, baseball fans are familiar with “the comeback.” Braves fans can fondly remember the 2005 team that stormed its way to the NL East crown. Of course the 2007 season provided unforgettable comebacks by the Rockies and Phillies in the last week of the season. The Braves have the parts to contend and hopefully will be able to depending as to what happens in the next ten days. Now is the time to make or break the 2008 Braves season, we will have to wait and see if Frank Wren’s first move is big impact or silence.


Tags: ,
Posted in General | 18 Comments »

This website uses IntenseDebate comments, but they are not currently loaded because either your browser doesn't support JavaScript, or they didn't load fast enough.


18 Responses to “The Final Countdown: 10 Days to Trade”

  1. By PapaGLP on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I'm pretty sure that if the next 6 games don't go favorably, we can go ahead and count ourselves out for the rest of the season. I'm amazed that we're even still in this thing remotely with how we've been playing. Something has to give and I'm sure we'll see the direction of the team soon.
    As far as moving Teixeira, I continue to go back and forth on this one. I still can't decide what we should do with him and I think it's time to start looking at options to see what we could possibly get for him should the next week go poorly. I don't have much faith in our use of supplemental picks as it is anyways.
    I don't actually want to see Teixeira go, but I can deal with it in the event that we make the team better with a move. I'm still far from convinced that we have a chance of keeping him after this season anyways.

  2. By colin_ake60861 on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I'm with you, Jonathan. Even if we were to lose the next six games, Tex may be better off finishing the season with us than leaving. You have to figure out if the two draft picks we'd get if he signs elsewhere are better than whatever we'd get in return, assuming we wouldn't re-sign him.

  3. By Dan on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    The only problem I have with those additions Andrew is that we will have our minor league system ransacked by Billy Beane and it has already been said that Pittsburgh is looking for a King's ransom for Bay. My thought is this for 2009:

    C: Brian McCann
    1B: Mark Teixeira (5 years / 70 Million)
    2B: Kelly Johnson
    3B: Chipper Jones
    SS: Yunel Escobar
    LF: Bobby Abreu (3 years / 30 Million)
    CF: Gregor Blanco / Misc. Rookies
    RF: Jeff Francoeur

    SP1: CC Sabathia (6 years / 120 Million)
    SP 2: Tim Hudson
    SP 3: Jair Jurrjens
    SP 4: Jo-Jo Reyes / Jorge Campillo
    SP 5: Charlie Morton

  4. By PapaGLP on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Dan-
    What do you think the chance of getting a 5/70 contract for Tex through Boras is? I know everyone's saying to expect 20 per, but I just don't really know to expect.

  5. By Jared on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I think it'll be interesting to see what package the Braves will get for Tex if he's traded, but I would immediately hang up on Wren if I were Epstein and was asked for Bucholtz or Masterson. That package would be even better than what we got for him a year ago IMO. Masterson and Bucholtz are both studs that have proven they can pitch in the bigs. No way the Sox trade those guys for anybody that's going to be a free agent in the offseason. Of course, I hope i'm wrong; it would be awesome to see one of those two toeing the rubber for Atlanta in the years to come.

  6. By Akshay982 on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I highly doubt the Braves would get Tex for a five year deal. Scott Boras has a way of getting really long, really expensive contracts for his clients, and to me five years isn't long and 70 mill isn't what Boras wants. Bobby Abreu is making 16 mill this year, no way he takes less money over a short contract when he hasn't shown a noticeable decline in power numbers (homers have gone down a little, but RBIs have stayed the same). C.C. Sabathia would be the only realistic signing in there. But the last time the Braves signed a big ticket major league free agent pitcher was 1993 with Greg Maddux, that kind of tells you how likely that is at all.

    I think if the Braves were to go after Bay in the offseason, they wouldn't have to give up as much as they would at this point in the season. The A's are also unlikely to trade Duchscherer, especially since he's on the up side of his career. Most of the guys the A's trade have been in their system a few years and have shown some kind of decline (Blanton, Zito), or health problem (Harden).

  7. By Dan on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Unfortunately, I think 20 million may be a realistic number as a 29 year old power hitter. I personally find that he does not deserve that amount because I view him as a .290/35/100 guy. Those types of numbers merit between 12-16 million in my mind which is why I suggested an average of 14+ for Teixeira. It may be possible for him to land in that area becuase there will be many first-basemen on the market this offseason at a level good enough (Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Richie Sexson, Nomar Garciaparra, Kevin Millar, Sean Casey) to drive the price down at this position even a bit.

  8. By Dan on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I hear what you say here. This is opinion and what I would suggest. Abreu is getting 16 million as a primer middle of the order hitter from the contract he received during his prime, I submit to you that contact ability has decreased as he has aged. The guy who signed this contract was a perennial .300 hitter. He has not eclipsed that total since 2004. In addition he has shown since coming to New York that his years of 100+ walks are behind him. He still can work a walk, but his walks and OBP are way down to what they were. He will be 35 next year, if you think that he will earn much more than 3 years at 10 million as a .280/20/80 guy, you'd have to be bunking up with former Seattle GM Bill Bavasi. I felt that I was being generous with 10 million and 3 years for someone who would be 37 at the end of the contract. I doubt that he is going to do a whole lot better than that.

    Teixeira's explanation is above. You are right though, Boras probably will be able to get a better deal than what I suggest Teixeira is worth…unfortunately

  9. By Dan on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Why have the Braves not signed a big ticket pitcher since 1993? Because they haven't had the need to with Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz in their rotation for a decade after that signing the money went to other sources. They traded for Hudson and signed him to a big extension, which is the equivalent because they are paying him ace money and gave up prospects. Oh and also Mike Hampton's huge contract is still their responsibility with some credit to the Rockies as well, that is another big money investment that I can think of offhand the Braves have made in pitching since 1993. With this case, they pick up a dominant L-R combo atop the rotation. With potentially as much as 60 million coming off the books this offseason, there will be more than enough room to make this a serious possibility.

  10. By Dan on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Absolutely agreed, those are the types of names I'd be lobbying for if I were Frank Wren.

  11. By Akshay982 on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I doubt the Braves go after a pitcher regardless, trading for Hudson and signing him to an extension is NOT the same as signing him as a free agent because they were not bidding against other teams for the contract, they may have been for the trade, but the trade was for talent. Tim is getting ace money, but until this year was not. Mike Hampton was a big mistake, the only reason the Braves did it was because they got the Rockies and even the Marlins to pay for chunks of his contract.

    As far as Abreu goes, someone's going to pay him more than 10 mill. Mike Lowell got a 3 year, $38 million contract last season and that MAY be comparable to what Abreu might get (they are the same age). From 2003-2007, Lowell has 108 homers, Abreu has 105 are on pace for similar numbers this year. Lowell has 448 RBI while Abreu has 516, that's a 10 RBI a year difference and could amount to a difference in the contract.

    One more stat: with runners in scoring position from 2005-2007, Lowell is hitting .286 (.236 with two out), Abreu is hitting .304 (.261 with two outs). Pretty good numbers, a good agent could parlay that into a $14-15 million per year contract even if it is a short term contract.

  12. By daniel_a_fisher on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    This is what blogging is all about…good arguments man. I will agree to disagree in this one.

  13. By PapaGLP on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    If Boras can get 18 per for Andruw, he can surely get 20+ for Tex. I'd like to see him stay at your rate however. That's for sure. We need to do something to look a power first baseman up if/when we lose him however.

  14. By PapaGLP on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I couldn't agree more, but stranger things have happened. The question is however, in the realistic situation, what pitchers are an actual possibility for the Braves to pick up. It make take a couple of years to rebuild a solid rotation, but it's time to start figuring that out.

  15. By Akshay982 on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Definitely, I don't Wren cares much for either of our opinions, but it's still fun ;)

  16. By Blake on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I don't have fancy stats to pull out or any players in mind, but in my opinion, it seems like the Braves really need to pick up at outfielder at this point. I read people's suggestions about Jason Bay, who would be an awesome pickup, and I would absolutely love it if he came to Atlanta. With Chipper being injured, we might have some infield concerns, but with Prado back and Infante, I feel like we're secure in the infield. Kotsay's been in and out this year, and we need to drop Francouer like it's hot.

  17. By Jared on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    I hear people talk about how the Braves need to revamp their rotation etc. I just don't see it. I think the Braves are 1 pitcher away from having the best rotation in the division. If we added Sheets or Sabathia (or even AJ Burnett) in the offseason, we would easily jump to the top of the east.

    This is a great rotation:
    Sheets/Sabathia
    Hudson
    Jurrjens
    Campillo
    Morton/Reyes

    This would be fine too
    Hudson
    Jurrjens
    Burnett
    Campillo
    Morton/Reyes

  18. By Andrew on Feb 2, 2009 | Reply

    Guys, how would this team look going forward?

    C: Brian McCann
    1B: Mark Teixeira
    2B: Kelly Johnson
    3B: Chipper Jones
    SS: Yunel Escobar
    LF: Jason Bay
    CF: Mark Kotsay
    RF: Jeff Francoeur

    SP: Tim Hudson
    SP: Jair Jurrjens
    SP: Justin Duchscherer
    SP: Jorge Campillo
    SP: Jo-Jo Reyes

Post a Comment


BravesBlast.com is not affiliated with or sponsored by the Atlanta Braves organization. Views expressed on this site do not reflect the views of the Atlanta Braves organization.