2009 Options

Written by Akshay on July 29, 2008 – 1:29 pm

Hey guys, just had a few minutes and wanted to make a quick write up of what our team would look like next year and how much money we would have exactly. Thanks to the good folks over at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we have some pretty definitive numbers as far as who’s going to be on the books and who’s not, who’s making what and who’s not. At the same time, several players will be eligible for arbitration (Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur are among them).

So let’s start at the top:

• The current roster salary is approximately $102.5 million
• Mike Hampton is making $15 mill this year with a club option for 2009 worth $20 mill (seriously, this is not a joke). Anyway, there’s a $6 million buyout for which the Rockies are responsible for if the Braves decide not to pick up the option, which I seriously hope they do not. So yeah, Hampton would actually make $6 mill if a team didn’t want him. (Net: -$15 mill)
• Tim Hudson is making $13 million this year and is scheduled to make $13 million next year. However, there is a chance (just a chance, nothing definitive yet) that Hudson would likely have to have the dreaded “Tommy John” surgery. Bad for now, good for the long term. But, like Hampton, Hudson would be eligible for insurance coverage, provided he sat out all year. That would cover half of the expenses, leaving the Braves on the hook for $6.5 million. (Net: Either -$6.5 million or no chance depending on which way the diagnosis goes).
• John Smoltz is making $14 million this year and had an option for 2009 for $12 million, provided he pitched 200 innings in 2008, which he will not. Now the Braves may choose to re-sign him, but I haven’t taken that into account in this blog post (Net: -$14 million).
• Mark Teixeira is making $12.5 million. Frank Wren probably has more experience dealing with Scott Boras than Schuerholz wanted to have, so there’s a chance that negotiations would go well. But dealing with what we have, he does not have a contract for next year so…(Net: -$12.5 mill).
• Chipper Jones is making $15 million and has a 2009 option that may be anywhere from $8 mill to $11 mill, which became a minimum of $10 mill with his All-Star selection. So, we’ll assume $11 mill. (Net: -$4 mill).
• Tom Glavine is earning $8 mill this year, will be a free agent next year. (Net -$8 mill).
• Mark Kotsay is making $8 mill, of which the Braves are on the hook for $3 mill. There’s a chance he could be re-signed, but it would be as a free agent. (Net: -$3 mill)
• Here’s where it gets iffy: Rafael Soriano is making $2.4 mill this year and $6.1 mill next year, that’s a jump of $3.7 mill. (Net: +$3.7 mill)
• Mike Gonzalez is making $2.36 mill this year after avoiding arbitration. He’ll be fully healthy next year and will almost likely get a raise. We’ll assume around $5.5 mill for the sake of this blog (Net: +$2.2 mill)
• Will Ohman is making $1.6 mill this year and will be a free agent (I do hope we re-sign him, but odds are low since the Braves rarely sign middle relievers to high priced contracts (Net: -$1.6 mill).
• Omar Infante is making $1.4 mill this year and is arbitration eligible next year (thankfully). Assuming performance increases and such, we’ll assume $2.5 mill (that might be a little high). (Net +$0.9 mill).
• Matt Diaz is making $1.23 mill and could be re-signed for about the same amount, we’ll say $1.5 mill (Net: +$0.3 mill).
• Brian McCann is making $0.8 mill (paltry for someone that’s doing what he’s doing). His salary will escalate to $3.5 mill next year (Net: +$2.7 mill).
• Greg Norton is making the minimum and could be re-signed for a very low cost next year. But that’s up to management, at this point he will be a free agent (Net: $0).
• Jeff Francoeur is eligible for “Super Two” arbitration due to his amount of playing time being in the top 17% percent of players at his position, and he has more than 2 years MLB experience. I think with his career numbers, the Braves could offer him a contract around $4 or $5 mill (Both are over estimates). (Net: +$4.5 mill).
• Kelly Johnson is eligible for the same arbitration as Francoeur for the same reasons and could be worth about $2.5 mill to 3.5, we’ll go with the over: (Net: +$3.0 mill)
• Everyone else on the current roster is not eligible for arbitration and could be re-signed at a low cost (I hope they offer Jurrjens a contract).
• So add it all up (in millions): $102.5 – $15 – (either $6.5 or$0) – $14 – $12.5 – $4 – $8 – $3 + $3.7 + $2.2 – $1.6 + $0.9 + $0.3 + $3.7 + $4.5 + $3.0 = $62.7 if Hudson pitches next year, $56.2 if he does not. Which leaves the Braves with A LOT of room to make some moves. They could re-sign Smoltz if he thinks he is ready to be back. Glavine could be back if he wanted since the Braves would have a spot. However, there are several targets the Braves could also go after with their loot in the free agent market.

In the 2008-09 offseason, several high ticket, established players will be (unrestricted) free agents. Including, but not limited to:

• 1B: Mark Teixeira, there’s really not much first baseman talent on the market, which bodes well for Tex.
• 2B: Orlando Hudson
• SS:  Rafael Furcal, Cesar Izturus
• 3B: Joe Crede
• C: Ivan Rodriguez, Javier Valentin, Jason Varitek
• OF: Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Raul Ibanez, Mark Kotsay, Manny Ramirez (it looks less and less like the Sox will pick up his 2009 option). Clearly there is talent here.
• SP: Ryan Dempster, Jon Garland, Tom Glavine, Oliver Perez, C. C. Sabathia (Should be target #1), Ben Sheets (Should be target #2).
• RP: Will Ohman, Scott Eyre. Both lefties, but will probably be higher priced than normal.

Anyway, that’s the list, the Braves have about $40-50 million to work with next year and could really use some help on both sides of the ball. Could this be our rebuilding process? It probably is, but we’ll see how committed the Braves are to winning in late November and December when free agency begins.

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