Yunel Escobar: Predicting 2009

Yunel Escobar had his first full season starting last year and it’s time to guess what he’s going to do in 2009. Now in case you missed it, Escobar was drafted in the 2nd round of the amateur draft in 2005. He played in 2007 behind Edgar Renteria and once Renteria was traded to the Tigers, he started at shortstop last year. In his first full season he batted .288 with 10 HRs and 60 RBIs, and walked more than in 2007. He batted second 57% of the time, first 30% of the time, and batted most of the rest of the time in the third spot.

What does Escobar do in 2009? I think he bats second. We’ll throw Josh Anderson / Gregor Blanco in the leadoff slot and let Escobar hit second. Chipper is third, and it’ll go on from there. Escobar’s average jumped up .40 points batting third last year, but that’s Chipper’s spot as long as he wants it. Escobar will continue to mature as a player and hopefully we’ll see an improvement over last year – which wasn’t really a sophomore slump – but it wasn’t as phenomenal as his first year. Bobby Cox deemed Escobar a future all-star last offseason, and we hope he turns into that player in the coming couple of years.

So now the time comes to pull numbers out of my keister. Once again, don’t bet on this. I’m not qualified to be doing this, but neither is anybody else. My prediction for Yunel Escobar in 2009 is as follows:

.298 BA, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs, 55 strikeouts, 65 walks, 30 doubles, and… oh I dunno, 80 runs scored.

Go ahead, tell me how you disagree. Then pull numbers out of thin air and we’ll argue. I’m looking forward to see Escobar this coming year – I hope to see him improve as he matures. Give him another few years and we’ll see the All Star player we hope to see.

Will It Be Francoeur2K7 or 2K8?

One of the big question marks entering the 2009 season is about which Jeff Francoeur the Braves are going to get this year.  Is it going to be the Frenchie of 2007 that batted .293 with 19 homers while slugging .444?  Or is it going to be the Francoeur of 2008 that, after a promising start, batted .239 with 11 homers and slugged .359?

Last year was definitely the low point of Francoeur’s career thus far.  2008 started off promising where he batted .294 and slugged .500 through the first 25 games on the season.  The next 60 games took a turn for the worse and saw a batting average of .207, finally culminating with a demotion to Double-A Mississippi for a couple of games.  Despite the embarrassment of the demotion, there was little encouragement on his return to Atlanta.  Francoeur batted .245 and slugged .340 through the rest of the season.

Francoeur’s biggest problem last season was that he just wanted to hit home runs.  He bulked up in the offseason and didn’t focus as much on mechanics.  Francoeur himself admitted that he went about preparation for the season completely wrong, not hitting or throwing until he made it to Spring Training.  This year, he has readopted the approach from his first playing years where Spring Training was his opportunity to make the big league team.

Riding on the lows of last season, Francoeur’s biggest focus this offseason is to get back to the relaxed, powerful player that he was.  He didn’t focus on weight-gaining workouts but rather maintained a more athletic appearance.  He also developed a new batting stance that he “likens to a right-handed version of Mark Teixeira”.  In the new stance, Francoeur has minimal movement on his left foot during the weight transfer of his swing.  When asked about Frenchy’s new swing, an impressed Chipper Jones indicated that everything looks substantially better and that Francoeur is showing great power through the ball right now.

Despite the success in the offseason batting cage, there is still the chance that it won’t transfer to the on-the-field performance that Braves fans are hoping to see.  The end result is yet to be seen, but a confident Jones thinks that Francoeur has the potential to hold down the cleanup role this season.  If the Braves don’t end up signing a power outfielder, that may just happen to space out Jones and Brian McCann in the lineup.

So there it is, Braves fans.  Let’s hope for the best for Frenchy this year.  He’s unstoppable defensively and should have a bit of a step again with the more athletic frame.  What we really need to see is patience and success at the plate, however, with his renewed sense of confidence.  Who will we see this year?  Francoeur of 2007? 2008? Or a new Frenchy all together?

Jurrjens’ 2009 Outlook

Jair Jurrjens was relatively unknown when we acquired him from the Tigers last offseason for Edgar Renteria. I think initally I heard more about Gorkeys Hernandez than I heard about Jurrjens – who was 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in a short stint with Detroit. That said, Jurrjens came to town and quickly showed he was ready to pitch in the rotation. He shows command and a knowledge for the game beyond his now 23 years (Happy Birthday today, Jair!). In his rookie season he went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA with 139 K’s in 188 innings.

So – how was Jurrjens’ first season? Good. He’s a very talented young pitcher and may end up the Braves’ #2 starter behind Tommy Hanson for the years to come. He did get tired towards the end of the season – his ERA spiked from a 1.63 stretch in June to 5.73 in August and 4.30 in September. He’s young – and he maxed out at just over 142 innings in the minors – so 188 innings in his first year in the bigs isn’t bad – at all. Jair’s 13 wins represent four more wins than closest rookie pitcher last year – and that was WITH the Braves’ horrible 1 run game record. Jurrjens is one of my favorite Braves and tons of fun to watch – if I’m not at the game, I make sure to turn on the TV when Jurrjens is on the mound.

But what’s next? What should we expect in 2009? Well, I’m no genie. I’m don’t guarantee my predictions and don’t stand behind them – don’t even think about placing wagers on anything based on my numbers. Jurrjens will be even better this year – I think he’ll hit 200 innings pitched. I’ll predict a 16-8 year for the young Jurrjens, with a 3.30 ERA. Please note that I pulled those numbers out of thin air – but I think they’re reasonable with a more stable rotation, a more rested bullpen, and assuming the Braves even break even in the one-run game area. If the Braves can back Jurrjens up with some offense, we may see even better win totals. I’m not even going to pretend to guess strikeout/walk ratio. I’ll leave that up to you.

What do you think we’ll see from Jurrjens in 2009? Am I full of hot air? Are my expectations too high? Or too low? Feel free to chime in.

As always, submit some article suggestions on the left hand side of the screen under the “Suggestions” tab – we use them to help come up with content when it’s a slow news day.

Glavine Good To Go; Sutton Returning

It’s one of those days where we just couldn’t think of one thing in particular to write a substantial article about, so we’re taking a quick look at a couple stories from the day.  Be sure to drop us some new article ideas with the Suggestions tab on the left.

Tom Glavine returned from his visit with Dr. Andrews today with a renewed sense of confidence about pitching in the 2009 season.  The question now remains, where will he pitch?  Andrews found no issues with the surgically repaired left elbow and shoulder during the routine checkup and cleared Glavine to increase his pitch counts during his mound sessions.

Dr. Andrews also informed Glavine that he would likely be ready to pitch in spring training.  While he is still not throwing with full intensity, Glavine reported no pain after his 60-pitch session today.  He is slated to throw a 75-pitch session later in the week and then will move on to the next step of his rehab program which will consist of throwing harder, but fewer pitches.

Glavine is expected to meet with Frank Wren later this week to discuss his rehab progress and next steps.  It’s hard to tell if Wren plans to offer Glavine a contract that would be deemed acceptable.  Financially, the Braves are down to about $6 million to spend this offseason and are still on the hunt for an outfielder.  Conversely, some believe that they will make an offer to Glavine to avoid the fallout that was experienced with the departure of John Smoltz.  Only time will tell on that one.

In other news, Don Sutton will once again be heard on Braves radio broadcasts.  The Braves confirmed today that the Nationals and MASN radio network had release Sutton from his contract obligations to allow him to return to Atlanta.  Sutton’s familiar voice, along with newcomer Jim Powell, will fill the void left with the retirement of Pete Van Wieren and the passing of Skip Caray last season.

So what do you think, Braves fans?  What will the outcome of Glav’s meetings with Wren be?  Do we have the financial means to try and bring Glavine on board and still pursue an outfielder?  With the preseason rapidly approaching, there are still questions to be answered.

Huddy’s 2010 Club Option

We got a request to look at why Tim Hudson may be unhappy about the Braves’ club option for the 2010 season. Hudson will make $13 million this year and should be back in the rotation towards the end of the season. If he’s healthy, we’ll likely see him back in the rotation in 2010 – the club has an option they can exercise for that season. Huddy stands to make $12 million from the 2010 season if that option is exercised.

Why would Hudson be unhappy about the club option? The only reason I can think of is that Hudson believes he can make more on the open market and he’s not getting any younger. That said, he’s loved playing with the Braves and being close to home (he’s from Columbus, GA) as far as we know. I think that even if he is “unhappy” it’s more of a “wish I could sign a new contract” and not anything like a “don’t like the Braves anymore.”

Tim Hudson will probably be back with the Braves in 2010 – and I hope he is back and healthy. He’ll make $12 million, which is a decent amount of money. I think he’ll take the year to prove that he’s healthy and able to still pitch successfully – and get more money on the other side. I don’t think I’d be that unhappy with the club option for $12 million in 2010 – but that’s just me.

Colin

Glavine Improving, Showing Interest In Nats

Continuing the rehab on his surgically repaired left shoulder and elbow, Tom Glavine pitched from a mound for the second time this past Tuesday. The first session came two Friday’s ago where Glavine threw 15 fastballs and reported no discomfort. In Tuesday’s session, he threw 30 pitches, combining fast balls and changeups. Once again, Glavine reported no discomfort in the elbow or shoulder. He is slated to meet with Dr. Andrews in Birmingham this coming Wednesday for a routine checkup to monitor the progress on the repaired flexor tendon in his left elbow.

The biggest thing for Tom in his recovery right now is to not overdo anything.  Pushing too hard to be ready in time for Spring Training if his arm is just not up to it would be the biggest setback for him.  Glavine has repeatedly said that this is the best his arm has felt in years and is making a concious effort to do his recovery properly and not become overly excited with each mound session.  At the rate he is progressing, Glavine is fairly certain that he’ll be ready in time for the regular season however.

While Glavine’s main focus right now is being able to pitch again in the 2009 season, there is still the fact that he remains a free agent for the upcoming season.  He has indicated that he’d love to stay and pitch for the Braves, but realizes that this may not be a possibility.  Glavine has said that he has thought through multiple possibilities and knows that financially, the Braves just may not have the ability to sign him this season.  Right now however, he continues to just go out there and prove that he’ll be ready to go once the season gets under way.

If things with the Braves don’t work out, Glavine has expressed some interest in pitching for the Nationals because of his close relationship with team president, Stan Kasten, who was in the Braves organization together with Glavine from 1987 to 2002.  As of now, the Nationals have not contacted Glavine’s agent, as they are focused on acquiring young players for the long term.  Should they choose to bring him on board, Glavine would likely serve in the mentoring role for the team’s young pitchers.

So the question is, do the Braves bring back Glavine or not?  We have no lefties in the rotation right now (aside from Jo-Jo Reyes potentially grabbing the 5th spot) so is this a role that Glavine gets the nod to fill or is it time for the Braves and Glavine to go their separate ways once again?

Keeping Chipper In Atlanta

Chipper Jones is entering the final year of his contract with the Atlanta Braves and has made it clear over the past few days that he, without a doubt, wants to spend the entirety of his career with the club. He was selected by the Braves as the first overall pick in the first-year player draft back in 1990.  This is the only club that Chipper has ever played for and has repeatedly made it known that he has no desire to go elsewhere.

I think there was little question to any fans that there would be any problems with that happening until a couple of weeks ago with the departure of John Smoltz to the Boston Red Sox.  At that point in time, Chipper shared many of the same frustrations as the fans.  It’s taken a little bit of time for the emotions to calm down, but with the help of a few pitching signings, everyone is slowly getting back to the business that is baseball and trying to move on with the offseason.

Though approaching his 37th birthday, Jones is the reigning National League batting champion, batting .364 and slugging .574 in the 2008 season.  Over the past 3 seasons, he has also led all of Major League Baseball with a .342 batting average.  The downside to Chipper’s aging body is his tendency to come down with injuries throughout the season.  In the past season, he has played in an average of 124 games and made a collective five trips to the disabled list.  Despite this, he remains confident that he will remain productive on the field at the age of 40, and as far as I’m concerned, has done nothing to prove otherwise through the past couple of seasons.

Staying in Atlanta has always been the number one priority for Chipper.  In 2006, he agreed to alter his contract and sacrifice up to $15 million in potential earnings for the guarantee that he would be staying in Atlanta at least through the end of the 2008 season.  With his production last season, Chipper’s $11 million option for the 2009 season has vested.  It has never been completely about the money, but rather the chance to remain and play for the fans that have been with him for his entire career.

Though Frank Wren told Chipper last September that he hoped to work out a contract extension as soon as possible, it’s understandable that the focus of the club has been elsewhere this offseason.  With trying to sign new pitching and the potential of adding some power to the lineup, Jones understands that Wren’s primary objectives have been outside of a contract extension.  With the season rapidly approaching though, Chipper’s outlook on the process remains the same.  He has repeatedly said that he would not negotiate a contract mid-season again due to the amount of distraction that it provides from trying to play baseball.  Hopefully the front office and Chipper can get something worked out soon and the focus can shift to the season at hand.

I realize that the Braves may be hesitant to offer Jones an overly extended contract, but Chipper is only looking for a fair-priced, three-year contract from the Braves.  I can’t forsee any reason why he has not earned that respect in the eyes of the front office of the club.  He is truly a face of the Atlanta Braves and it would be the biggest shame to see him part ways and play for another team.  Without a doubt, if the Braves don’t extend and re-sign Chipper’s contract, he would pull huge interest from many other teams who know just how productive he can be despite his age.  Losing Smoltz and Chipper in back-to-back seasons is just not an option for Braves fans.

Casey and Kelly on the Right

The right side of the infield hasn’t been this good for the Braves in quite a while – not exactly the sentence you were expecting…but let’s look a little more into the “numbers,” which so many fans and “pundits” love to dissect. Casey Kotchman and Kelly Johnson are not exactly household names in the world of baseball. After all, it’s been a while since we’ve had the scrappy second baseman Marcus Giles and gold-glove caliber Adam LaRoche on that side of the field. Instead, Kotchman and Johnson will take the reins. Johnson, who took over for Giles after he left in free agency to San Diego, and Kotchman, who will be the first baseman after a mixture of Scott Thorman and Craig Wilson didn’t work and Mark Teixeira did not do much to add victories to the Braves.

Let’s take more of an in-depth look at the guy who a lot of fans may have blamed for our horrifically bad record against the Phillies last year. Johnson’s dropped pop up in the ninth inning of a game last season allowed the Phillies to score the tying run and later the winning run in extra innings. That error haunted the second baseman, but he did not suffer at the plate. Johnson hit .287 in his second full season in the majors; however his OBP and slugging went down from the previous season. He had 13 more doubles, four fewer home runs, fewer walks and fewer strikeouts than the previous season. While Johnson’s performance at the plate has barely been consistent, many players begin to flourish in their third year in the majors. I took a look at a player who has been in the sports news a little bit because of his selfishness lately – Michael Young. Young hit .249 and .262 in his first one and a half seasons in the majors. Young’s OBP and slugging were a lot worse than Johnson’s, but if that is an indication, the Braves will certainly have what will be an all-star second baseman in the field. Defensively, Johnson made 14 errors each of the past two seasons, but his fielding percentage did go up slightly in more changes than 2007.

At first base, Kotchman leaves a lot to be desired when we compare him to the 180 million dollar man. Kotchman made his major league debut in 2004 with the Anaheim Angels and went back and forth between the majors and minors over the next three seasons. 2007 was Kotchman’s first chance to play every day and he didn’t disappoint. He hit .297 with 11 home runs and 68 RBI. He also drew 53 walks and struck out—get this—ONLY 43 times in 443 at-bats, roughly once every ten at bats. Those numbers are more in the mold of Chipper Jones in that aspect as opposed to Andruw Jones or Johnson or Jeff Francoeur. Kotchman started off last season hitting .287 for the Angels and hit 12 home runs and had 54 RBI in the two thirds of the season he was with them. Unfortunately, his production significantly tailed off to a .237 average with the Braves and just two home runs over the last two months of the season and only 20 RBI. He walked a total of 36 times and struck out 39 times last year in more at-bats than 2007.

Despite only two months of service with the Braves, Kotchman’s production has left many fans restless. Think about it this way though, if you were playing for the best team in the league and you get to the stadium one day and found out you were traded to a team that wasn’t going to the post-season, how motivated would you be to put on your best effort? As professional as Kotchman is, he is still human and there’s always an element of disappointment in getting traded out of the playoff race. The guy is a gold glove caliber first baseman (that seems to be the norm these days in Atlanta) and I predict we will see more of the production he showed with Anaheim than the last two months of this past season with the Braves.

Heyward, Prospects Invited to Camp

We got this mailbag question from Brandon today – figured it meshed well with the Braves inviting the top prospects to camp. We’re slapping it into one article and calling it… well… an article on Jason Heyward and other prospects.

I was just recently looking around and came across some top prospects and saw a RF named Jason Heyward. Who is this and how far is he away from the majors?

We need to become familiar with Jason Heyward. MLB.com ranked him as the third best prospect in all of baseball after just one season with the Braves last year.  The 18 year old 6′4″, 230 lb Georgia native played at Class A Rome last year. He batted .323 with 52 RBIs, an .871 OPS and 11 HRs before moving on to Myrtle Beach, where he only played 7 games. He’s pinned as an All-Star and has drawn comparisons to Dave Parker and Willie McCovey. He runs the bases well, covers ground well in the outfield and has a great arm. He’s probably 2-3 years away, but he’s going to be a star in the outfield, if all goes according to plan.

Heyward was invited to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Also invited were our friend Jordan Schafer, promising Class A first baseman Freddie Freeman and top pitching prospects Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen.  These are the top 5 prospects for the Braves this spring.  There’s a possibility that we see Schafer and Hanson on the roster coming out of spring training, but Schafer may start the year at AAA with Hanson. I think we’ll see Hanson on the roster before the year’s end – don’t know about Schafer with the crowded outfield picture still not completely clear, but we could easily see him as well.

Hope that gives ya some more information on Heyward, Brandon. We’ll see them in spring training and look forward to watching them grow.  We’ll hopefully be pulling in some interviews sooner rather than later with at least one of the guys that got invited to camp. We’ve got a few surprises up our sleeves.

Francoeur’s Arbitration and ‘09 Season

It’s not breaking news, but if you didn’t know, the Braves and Jeff Francoeur traded salary arbitration figures yesterday. The interesting thing is that there’s a $1.15 million discrepancy in their figures. Francoeur wants $3.95 million, and the Braves are offering $2.8 million. We’ll see if they come to an agreement before arbitration next month or battle it out in front of a third party.

Either way, I’d like to point out that Francoeur made $460,000 last year. While that’s not pocket change, let’s look at the difference in what he made last year and what the Braves are offering him this year – $2.3 million. Last year he batted only .239 with just 11 home runs and 71 RBIs. Now, I’ve been trading emails and thoughts with a few people, and the question has been primarily “Will he turn it around or is last year going to repeat itself?” 

Frankly, the Braves would NOT under any circumstances offer him $2.8mil if they thought he wasn’t going to turn it around. Francoeur will be back, people. He’s made adjustments to his swing (mostly focusing on keeping his hands back, staying balanced, and having a shorter stride), and he’s lost weight. Francoeur will be back this year, and I can’t wait to see it. He’s a great guy, a hometown personality, and I want to see him succeed. I’m not going to predict numbers, but I’m not alone in thinking he’ll be back.

In a bit of other news today, the Braves are working their way towards establishing a new radio broadcast team to replace Pete Van Wieren and Skip Caray.  Pete retired at the end of last season following Skip’s unexpected death.  According to a few sources, the Braves are in talks with the Washington Nationals to bring Don Sutton back to Atlanta after a two-year absence.

Sutton served as an announcer in Atlanta from 1996-2006 before heading north to serve as a member of the Nationals’ broadcast team for the past two seasons.  Though he still has two years left on his contract with the Nationals, many of Sutton’s colleagues have indicated that he would love the opportunity to return to the Braves organization.

The Braves have already hired Jim Powell, who has been a part of the Brewers’ broadcast team the past 13 years, to be the second member of the radio duo.  

Mailbag: Francoeur, Glavine, Podcast

Chad wrote mailbag yesterday (we respond quickly) with the following question:

Hey guys just wondering what you think about Francoeur’s Statement in the AJC that he is going to be a completely different player, Also Glavine said he had another pain free pitching outing and seems to be leaning toward coming back with the Braves what are your guys thoughts on this. I think you guys need a talk show or something get your voice out on the air.

Thanks for writing, Chad. Francoeur is going to be an interesting guy to watch this year. Last year he bulked up, partially due to getting married and enjoying his wife’s cooking, and partially because he spent a lot of time lifting. This led to Francoeur absolutely smashing balls in batting practice, but messed with his mechanics a little bit (from what I read… I’m not a batting coach).  This year Francoeur has slimmed down.  He took some advice from Mark DeRosa and Mark Teixeira and has changed his stance and swing. He’s been hitting four days a week. He’ll probably be better than he was last year. I’m going to go more in-depth on Francoeur soon in another post, so I’ll save some thoughts on him. I think we’ll see Francoeur as a different player – and I hope he’ll surprise us with how good he is. He’s optimistic about it and so are the other people I’ve seen talk about it.

I addressed Glavine a couple days ago in this article. That said, I’ll add that I wouldn’t mind seeing another arm in the arsenal as long as we don’t pay tons of money for it. The Braves need a lefty, they need a veteran, and though their rotation is more aged than we’re used to, Glavine would add some to it. I just don’t want to see us waste tons of money on him when we wouldn’t sign Smoltzie.

As far as podcasts or talk shows, we’re working on a few options there. While we’re not about to start a podcast ourselves yet (also not saying we won’t do one), we’re partnering with a few people. For one, the good people over at BravesCast have had Rue on twice and Jonathan and I will be making appearances soon. It’s long – an hour – but it’s good.

Arbitration Avoided For Gonzalez

The Braves made a move yesterday to avoid arbitration for the 2009 season with Mike Gonzalez by signing him to a one-year, $3.45 million contract.  The Braves are looking for Gonzalez to serve as the closer for the 2009 season, filling a position that has lacked consistency and stability over the past few years.  Last season alone, Soriano, Smoltz, Gonzalez and a host of other fill-ins took their shots at the role.  While Gonzalez isn’t the true definition of a power closer, a constant figure in the position will prove well for the Braves.

After returning from Tommy John surgery in the middle of the 2008 season, Gonzalez had 14 saves in 16 opportunities while striking out 44 in his 33.2 innings pitched.  Of a little concern however is the 6 home runs that he issued in that work as well.  His 4.28 ERA last season isn’t exactly what you want to see out of a closer and hopefully this season he can get back around and under his career average of 2.62.

While returning from surgery last season, Gonzalez struggled to find the full strength in his arm at times, but is hoping to regain the consistency in his arm through his work this offseason and the upcoming preseason.  He has always been a strikeout pitcher, with a 1.16 K per inning average and could prove to be a great asset down the stretch should the Braves continue to find themselves in the onslaught of one- and two-run games they did last season.

This leaves Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur as the only three remaining arbitration-eligible players.  I’m hoping Gonzalez can pitch a consistent and injury-free season to help keep the bullpen on track.  It seems that the Braves develop injury issues at the closer position every season and the pen slowly degrades from there.  So are you happy to see Gonzalez locked in for the season to fill the closer role?  Who takes the reins should he develop any injuries throughout the season?