Jurrjens’ 2009 Outlook

Written by Colin on January 29, 2009 – 2:40 am

Jair Jurrjens was relatively unknown when we acquired him from the Tigers last offseason for Edgar Renteria. I think initally I heard more about Gorkeys Hernandez than I heard about Jurrjens – who was 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in a short stint with Detroit. That said, Jurrjens came to town and quickly showed he was ready to pitch in the rotation. He shows command and a knowledge for the game beyond his now 23 years (Happy Birthday today, Jair!). In his rookie season he went 13-10 with a 3.68 ERA with 139 K’s in 188 innings.

So – how was Jurrjens’ first season? Good. He’s a very talented young pitcher and may end up the Braves’ #2 starter behind Tommy Hanson for the years to come. He did get tired towards the end of the season – his ERA spiked from a 1.63 stretch in June to 5.73 in August and 4.30 in September. He’s young – and he maxed out at just over 142 innings in the minors – so 188 innings in his first year in the bigs isn’t bad – at all. Jair’s 13 wins represent four more wins than closest rookie pitcher last year – and that was WITH the Braves’ horrible 1 run game record. Jurrjens is one of my favorite Braves and tons of fun to watch – if I’m not at the game, I make sure to turn on the TV when Jurrjens is on the mound.

But what’s next? What should we expect in 2009? Well, I’m no genie. I’m don’t guarantee my predictions and don’t stand behind them – don’t even think about placing wagers on anything based on my numbers. Jurrjens will be even better this year – I think he’ll hit 200 innings pitched. I’ll predict a 16-8 year for the young Jurrjens, with a 3.30 ERA. Please note that I pulled those numbers out of thin air – but I think they’re reasonable with a more stable rotation, a more rested bullpen, and assuming the Braves even break even in the one-run game area. If the Braves can back Jurrjens up with some offense, we may see even better win totals. I’m not even going to pretend to guess strikeout/walk ratio. I’ll leave that up to you.

What do you think we’ll see from Jurrjens in 2009? Am I full of hot air? Are my expectations too high? Or too low? Feel free to chime in.

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19 Responses to “Jurrjens’ 2009 Outlook”

  1. By dave on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    First of all, I think Jair Jurrjens was one of the few bright spots to an otherwise dismal 2008 season. I am so thankful we have him. I think he should have been the rookie of the year. That is not intended to take any thing away from Soto who won. Just look at the team records Chicago was 97-64 and Atlanta was 72-90. To have won 13 games as a rookie on a team with a record like Atlanta had is remarkable. I agree that that 16-8 is very reasonable, I only hope the win total is on the low side. He is a part of the future, for the Braves that that creates excitement for this Braves fan. God bless

  2. By Tim on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    I love watching Jurrjens pitch. He is awesome. He reminds we a lot of Maddux when watching him. I'm predicting 15 – 10 with a ERA around 3.41.

  3. By Larry on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    Whats even more amazing is one 13 games pitching as an ace of the rotation for about half the season. He will be penciled in as the 3 or 4 starter this year. I think those numbers you predicted are reasonable. I just dont know about the 200 innings. With a better and hopefully not over used bullpen, the Braves may still monitor his innings this year until they feel comfortable turning him loose.

  4. By Corey on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    There are too many variables to realistically predict what will happen. But in a best case scenario I imagine he could go 18 – 7 with a 2.90 ERA. If he has a sophomore slump he might dip down into the 10 – 12 with a 4.20 ERA. I think he will end up closer to the higher end more likely in the 16 – 9 with a 3.20 ERA. So essentially I agree with your prediction.

  5. By Pat from Bravescast on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    I dont care what any of the Atlanta sportswritters think, Jurrjens is the the # 2 in the roatation. Hopefully he will not suffer a sophomore slump. I think if he has a good first half the Braves should lock him up to a long term contract.

  6. By Tim on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    The Braves still have this year and next before they have to worry about locking him up long term. He can't get a huge payraise till 2011.

  7. By Larry on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    I believe hes a Boras client. So really the sooner we lock him down the less Boras will minipulate people for more money. The closer he is to free agency the more Boras will push him there

  8. By Tim on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    Well I was talking about arbitration. He can't get that until 2011 so the Braves just have to tend him and keep his salary low.

  9. By B-RITT on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    I must agree, I see a LOT of people projecting Lowe then Javier, but you're right, JJ SHOULD be our #2. His ERA and consistency, based on last season, are at a different level. However, I'm feeling around 13-9 with a 3.41 ERA in 191 IP (this is accounting for 1-run decisions, and a slight shad of pessimism sprinkled on top so I can be pleasantly surprised instead of incredibly disappointed ). But in agreement with your post and my initial statement, I have Javier going 12-11 with a 3.93 ERA in 210 IP (with same factors plus coming back to the NL). Overall, regardless of order, this rotation shouldn't have to rely on JJ being an ace again or Jo-Jo or Morton being our # 2.

  10. By Keith on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    He could have an even better year. I am sure that he will pitch better. If the pen stays healtly and comes though as expected then the win totals have a great chance to increase. The guy has less pressure to start the season. By mid season of last year, he was actually considered the ace with all of the injuries. The outfield only supplied 27 homers all seasons and didn't provide a lot of late inning support or could have ended up with more wins. If the braves can sign someone with power and the pitching staff is healthy then expect big things from Jair.

  11. By Keith on Jan 29, 2009 | Reply

    Did you guys see Dave O'Brien's latest column. He suggested that the Braves might have 5-9 million left. If this is the case and Abreu will sign a one year deal in this range then they should go for it. Some say we need a right handed bat between Chipper and Brian. I say bat Abreu 3rd, Chipper 4th and McCann 5th. This will dramically increase the OBP and added clutch late inning RBI's.

  12. By Pat from Bravescast on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    Bobby Abreu wants like 10 mill a year coming off a 16 mill contract last year. The Braves are only saying they can offord 5-7 mill max. Not to mention Glavines contract and Frenchy's arbritration cost. It looks to me like Dunn or none as the oufield goes. As for JJ I would like to see a McCann like 5 or so year deal even though he is still not even arbitration eligable and the Braves control his future for the next few years.

  13. By Colin on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    Living around Chicago and attending a number of White Sox games over the past few years, I have to say that Jurrjens should absolutely be the #2 starter to open the season. I believe the White Sox started Vazquez on opening day last year (so Buehrle could pitch the home opener), and he ended up being the 4th best pitcher on the staff. Would have been the worst if not for an injury to Jose Contreras. I'm hoping that the new team will re-energize him and he can turn into a top-of-the-rotation guy (he has the stuff for it), but we'll see.

    It will be interesting to see how this rotation plays out. If Lowe has a good year, Vazquez is solid, and JJ improves on last year than this team may have something to play for late in the year.

  14. By Keith on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    Dunn wants more than Abreu. The operative word is wants.I beleive neither will get what they think their worth.

  15. By Larry on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    I think we'll get a lot out of Vazquez. There are American league players and then there are National league players. Renteria is an excellent example of this. Vazquez is a national league pitcher. I think he wins at least 13 if not more.

  16. By Larry on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    Most experts have Abreu coming to Atlanta probably on a one yar deal. He said hes open to one year around the 5 to 6 mil range. As for arbitration players, they are excluded from the amount we have left to spend. I think the addition of Abreu would be huge

  17. By Tim on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    I'm not as positive about Vazquez. I'm hoping that realizes that he doesn't have the pressure of "Ace" on him this year and it relaxes him. People talk about him coming back to the NL but in 2005 for the D-Backs he had a 4.42 ERA.

  18. By Tim on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    Negative on Chipper batting 4th. He batted for those 2 years we had Sheffield and he said he hated it. He likes always batting in the 1st inning.

  19. By Jonathan on Jan 30, 2009 | Reply

    I'm with you, Tim. Slim chances of seeing Chipper holding down the 4th spot.

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