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What If Chipper Hadn’t Signed?
Written by Jack on April 2, 2009 – 9:59 amToday’s article is a guest post from Jack Liberio, submitted via the Mailbag. Be sure to welcome Jack as a poster on the site and, as always, feel free to make submissions of your own.
Make no mistake about it, there was no way Frank Wren could afford to let Chipper Jones walk after the season. Entering the final year of his contract, the Braves’ long-time third baseman made no secret of his desire to work out a contract extension with the only team he’s ever played for, and following the public uproar over John Smoltz’s departure earlier this winter, Wren would’ve faced an even larger revolt next winter if Chipper had entered free agency.
Jones agreed to a three year, $41 million guaranteed offer (which could go as high as $62 million and four years in options and incentives). Ignoring the public relations aspect, did the Braves even have a choice when it comes to the baseball aspect?
Jones is incredibly productive when healthy, worth an incredible 7.5 wins above replacement last season. He’s had only one season under 4 wins above replacement since 2002 (3.4 in 2004), factoring in his injury issues. Trying to replace that production next offseason would’ve proven to be a difficult task for Wren and the Braves’ front office.
Potential free agent options next winter include:
Adrian Beltre (SEA): Six years younger than Jones, Beltre’s easily the best available option on the open market. He’s finishing up a five year, $64 million contract, making $12 million this season. He’s a Boras client, who the Braves have been able to successfully work with (see Derek Lowe), but you can be confident that Boras will get top dollar for Beltre next winter. Beltre’s played at about a 4 win rate over the last three seasons, so he’s nothing to scoff at. The large majority of his value, though, comes from his glove. One of the absolute best defenders at third base, Beltre makes his pitchers look better. His bat’s okay, at almost seven runs above replacement last year, but he wouldn’t come close to replacing Chipper’s offensive production. If Wren had made a run at Beltre, he’d have certainly had to offer at least as much, if not more, as they were able to get Chipper to agree to.
Chone Figgins (LAA): Figgins will be 32 next off-season, and would provide a different look for the hot corner in Atlanta. Figgins is a speed demon, stealing 223 bases over the last five years. It’s impossible to tell what you’re going to get out of his bat, however. If he repeats his 2007 performance (.330/.393/.432), you’ve got a great lead-off hitter. Of course, his 2007 was sustained on an impossible .399 BABIP. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to a more sustainable .333 (his career BABIP is only .295, so it could potentially regress even further), and Figgins’ slash line last year was .279/.367/.318. Jeff Francoeur was the only Braves regular last year with a lower slugging percentage, and with the loss of Chipper, the Braves would be dying for power in the middle of the lineup – McCann can’t provide the entirety of the team’s punch.
Joe Crede (MIN): Another Boras client, Crede signed a one year deal this winter in order to reestablish himself as a reliable option. Plagued with all kinds of injury problems (sound familiar?), Crede hit .248/.314/.460 last year in just 97 games. Coming in at just under 2 wins above replacement, Crede would represent a major step down from the production, both offensively and defensively, the Braves are accustomed to. He would’ve certainly been available for less than the $14M the Braves will be paying to Chipper next year, but even if they’d been able to sign him for half of that figure, the team would be looking for another upgrade somewhere else in the lineup for about $7M.
Potential trade options:
Michael Young (TEX): Young’s 5 year/$80M contract extension just kicked in this year, and if the Braves desperately needed someone, they could probably get him for not much more than salary relief, but it’s safe to say there’s absolutely no reason Young will be in high demand any time soon.
Aramis Ramirez (CHC): It’s possible the Cubs could start looking at moving their third baseman within the next year or two, but it seems unlikely. He’s maintained a remarkably steady .900 OPS over the last four years, even as his K% climbed to 17.0% last year. He’s got a full no-trade clause, makes nearly $16M in 2010, and has a $16.6M player option for 2011. The cost both in dollars and prospects that would be required to get Ramirez make it highly unlikely the Braves would’ve considered any deal.
Garrett Atkins (COL): The Rockies have made no secret out of the fact that they’ve been trying to move Atkins, even after trading away Matt Holliday to Oakland earlier this offseason. 2010 will be Atkins’ last year under team control, so the Braves would either have viewed him as a stopgap solution or be forced to try and sign him to an extension. Making just over $7M in his second year of arbitration, Atkins could expect close to $9.5M next off-season in his final year of arbitration, and then a yearly rate of over $11.5M each year thereafter. Atkins hit .286/.328/.452 last season, and was worth only 0.5 wins. He’s an atrocity with the glove, putting up a combined total of -26.2 runs in fielding alone over the last two seasons. The Rockies are known for being fairly ridiculous in asking price for their players, so the Braves would again be forced to deal a handful of quality prospects, as well as pay nearly $10M for Atkins in 2010.
Potential internal options:
Omar Infante/Martin Prado: It’s possible the Braves could’ve chosen to go with either of their internal options at third if Chipper was gone in 2010, but as we’ve seen in their limited time throughout 2008, neither is quite good enough to be a starting infielder. Neither fits the prototypical mold of a power third baseman, and like Figgins, going with a non-power player at third base would leave the Braves gasping for power in their lineup.
Brandon Hicks: He’s a shortstop right now, and while it has been mentioned that he could eventually be Chipper’s replacement at third, he’s also seen as a glove-first, bat-second player.
Eric Campbell: Once upon a time, he was destined to be Chipper’s replacement. He hasn’t exactly worked out as planned, so even though he may have gotten a chance to prove his worth, it’s unlikely Campbell would’ve taken over at third for long.
When it came down to it, Chipper Jones had all the leverage in the world when it came to negotiating his extension in Atlanta. He’s incredibly productive, even factoring in his injury issues, and he’s the face of the franchise. One day it’ll be McCann’s face on the billboards downtown instead of Chipper’s, but for now, two offseasons in a row in which the Braves lost long-time players would’ve spelled trouble for Frank Wren, regardless of the quality of the job he was doing.
There are no better options on either the free agent market or among current major league third basemen, and the Braves don’t have any high quality third base prospects coming up through the system any time soon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft or trade for one during the next three years, because when Chipper does retire, whether it’s in 2012 or 2013, they’ll need someone ready to take his mantle.
Tags: Chipper Jones, Chipper Jones Contract
Posted in Speculation | 3 Comments »
By RueGrant on Apr 2, 2009 | Reply
Nice job, Jack!
By Jack on Apr 2, 2009 | Reply
Grazi, senora.
By josh on Apr 3, 2009 | Reply
nice post.