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Braves On Track For October Baseball
Written by Kent on June 11, 2009 – 2:33 pmA quick glance at the NL East standings will remind you that the Phillies are in first place. But unless the defending champs make an impact move to bolster their pitching staff soon, they’ll be in Atlanta’s rearview mirror by the end of September. Perhaps much sooner.
With a potentially season-ending injury to starter, Brett Myers, the Phillies’ pitching has gone from paper thin to RAZOR thin. They have big, BIG pitching problems. Philadelphia has only one starter they can bank on. ONE! And placing the ball in (closer) Brad Lidge’s hand this year has given Phillies fans ample opportunity to exercise prayer, profanity, or both.
The Mets pitching staff also appears vulnerable. Despite inconsistent performance from starters, Mike Pelfey and John Maine, and a thoroughly unimpressive back-end of their rotation, they have -so far- managed to limit opposing teams well enough to win. However, I don’t find their starting rotation particularly convincing. The Mets may have enough pitching to win 90+ games and remain competitive all season. Then again, they may not. Without a noteworthy roster move to add pitching depth, an injury to any of their top three starters could quickly derail their postseason hopes. But even if their pitching staff enjoys near-perfect health from here on out… it IS possible to bleed to death from the back end of your rotation. Just ask the 2007 Braves.
While both the Mets and Phillies are winners, both are flawed teams. Neither is a juggernaut. However, both teams lead Atlanta in the standings, so the Braves have obviously had issues of their own. What are they?
The Braves’ offensive failings have been well chronicled. What few noticed, however, were the early struggles of the back of Atlanta’s starting rotation. As of June 1, the Braves were 6-12 in games started by their 4/5 starters (Kawakami, Reyes, and Medlen) this season. Japanese ace, Kenshin Kawakami’s acclimation to Major League Baseball was not immediate. He went 1-3 with an ERA over 7.00 in the month of April. And the gifted, but frustratingly inconsistent lefty, JoJo Reyes, was winless before being replaced in the rotation by rookie, Kris Medlen.
But Kawakami has rebounded nicely to post a 3.38 ERA since the beginning of June. And Medlen was solid in his last start before giving way to top prospect, Tommy Hanson. Hanson will have his ups and downs this season like any rookie, but smart money says he’ll be solid overall.
Point being, the back of the rotation appears to be fixed, and with Hudson’s return on the horizon, it could get even better. Now, as for the offense…
The April/May ailments of Garrett Anderson and all-star catcher, Brian McCann, may have caused the lineup to look a little worse than it actually was. Nevertheless, more offense was most certainly needed.
Say what you will about Frank Wren. Many Braves fans are less than thrilled with the Atlanta General Manager after contentious partings with Braves’ living legends, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine. But there is no denying the quality of the trades Mr. Wren has engineered since accepting his current post. Trades for Jair Jurrjens, Omar Infante & Will Ohman, and Javier Vazquez have paid great dividends for the Braves. And now you can add the rare early-June acquisition of an impact player – all-star Center-Fielder, Nate McLouth – to his resume.
McLouth will go a long way to address the shortcomings of this Braves offense. He gives Atlanta another power threat, and the legitimate base-stealer they lacked before this trade. Anyone who doubts the impact one all-star hitter can have on a team doesn’t remember Fred McGriff’s arrival in Atlanta in ‘93.
Critics and slightly pessimistic Braves fans are quick to point out that the Bravos are still offensively challenged at the corner outfield positions. And they’re correct. But the fact of the matter is that EVERY team in the division has conspicuous faults. The outfield corners are weak, but the Braves are solid at every other position, and they have no pitching problems whatsoever.
With that in mind, would you prefer to have the Braves problems, or would you rather be the Philadelphia GM, staring at a need for 3 or 4 starters and a reliable closer? Or would you prefer the Mets challenges, which consist of inconsistent 2nd and 3rd starters, a weak back-end of rotation, and several positions from which they are getting almost no offense?
Given the addition of McLouth, the promotion of Hanson, and the eventual return of Tim Hudson, the Braves are the most complete team with the fewest unanswered questions in the NL East. This could all change should the Mets and/or the Phillies make a substantial move for an impact starting pitcher or two (it will take more than one in Phili’s case). But given the hands each team presently hold, from where I’m sitting, the Braves are on target for a return to the October stage.
How ‘bout you? Where do you see this Braves team, as compared to the Mets and Phillies?
Tags: Postseason Chances
Posted in General | 6 Comments »
By Jose Cerrato on Jun 12, 2009 | Reply
Besides the outfiled coreners we're also weak at second KJ has been bad really really bad, when Infante returns I hope he plays second base every day.
And yes I'd rather have our problems than Phillies' or Mets', our team will come through.
By Kent on Jun 12, 2009 | Reply
Yeah, WHEN HEALTHY, our only weakness is our corner outfield positions. When Infante gets back, he'll provide insurance against KJ's hyper-slumps.
By Keith on Jun 12, 2009 | Reply
Omar Infante was a spark plug. I suggest trading the fence swinging kelly (one prado is healthy) for some outfield pop. When Infante returns you will then have two guys to play second that can hit.
By Kent on Jun 13, 2009 | Reply
If we can get any real value in return for KJ, I wholeheartedly agree. But with the season he's has so far, his stock has surely dropped. Last winter was the time to move him.
But if he'll help get a deal done, I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a deal for a big right-handed outfield bat!
By skymuse on Jun 15, 2009 | Reply
I can't get behind this. The NL East as a whole is pretty inconsistent, verging on weak. As in prior recent years, it won't matter who ends up at the top of our little hill — they'll be out after the first round of playoffs anyway.
The analysis of the Mets/Phillies issues is fine, but the Braves are in no shape right now to capitalize. When we have to struggle in extra-inning games to beat the Pirates, then go on to lose the series to the Orioles, we're not exactly a dominating force that scares anyone.
When I see us sweep a few series or put together a 5+ win streak without turning around and losing 5 in a row, I'll think about post-season. As it stands now it's a pipe dream, and even if we end up being less bad than the Phillies, Mets, and Marlins, we won't last 4 games against the Cardinals or Dodgers, let alone the Red Sox or Yankees.
Don't get me wrong — I'll watch and cheer like everyone else. But we should enjoy the games during the season because I don't believe we'll be playing in October.
By jakfon on Jun 16, 2009 | Reply
Skymuse, I agree. There are many issued with our club. Pitching is not one of them. We could play small ball and win with the pitching we have but the players on this team swing for the fence at every at bat.
Garret Anderson is a waste of money. He lumbers to field the ball and it seems like he don't give a you know what to be in Atlanta.
Kelly Johnson has a great looking swing. He does need to put the ball in play and stop swinging for the fences. One problem with him I see is he is not a leadoff hitter! Maybe a six hole hitter.
Infante is a great player . When he returns he needs to be in the lineup everyday.
My thoughts are trade away Jeff & Garret. Get a good right handed hitting outfitter in return and bring up a AAA guy to play the other position. That would be better than what we have now. A 500. or less team.