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Braves Quietly Back On Winning Track
Written by Kent on July 17, 2009 – 8:43 pmIf you consider the Atlanta Braves we all watched in frustration for the first 10 weeks of the ’09 season, it would be hard to put much stock in this team. BUT… if you’ve been paying attention to these Braves over the last month, you know that they DO have a real chance to reclaim the division to which they once seemed to hold legal ownership rights.
Few seem to have noticed, but since June 18th, the Braves are 15-10. Good, but nothing you would call “impressive”, right? Yeah, ok… winning at a .600 clip for 25 games is not likely to be remembered someday as a great franchise accomplishment. The Braves have also won 10 of their last 15 (for a .666 win%), though it’s easy to dismiss success in such a small sample size. But if you’re looking for some indication of what this team is capable of in the second half… take a closer look at the most recent month or so of Braves baseball.
These last 25 games have included series’ against the Yankees, Red Sox (TWICE!), Phillies, Nats, Cubs, and a white hot Rockies ball club before kicking off the second half against the Mets Thursday night. So when you size up the level of competition over that span, 15-10 looks a little better. But if you dig further still, you might notice that Atlanta could – and probably SHOULD – have gone 18-7 over that decidedly challenging stretch.
Consider the fact that the Braves lost the first series against the Red Sox at Fenway in the 9th inning of the final game. And they would likely have overcome the first inning Jair Jurrjens error that ultimately cost them the game, if not for a horribly blown, what-the-hell-game-was-he-watching, call by the home plate umpire, Bill Hohn, in the 7th inning.
Fast-forward to game-2 of the 3-game set against the Yankees at The Ted. Kenshin Kawakami was in total command early. He did not allow a single base runner through 3 innings, and was flashing the same form he displayed when he famously out-dueled Toronto ace, Roy Halliday, earlier in the season. But then a line drive to Kawakami’s neck forced the Braves to turn to the bullpen to start the 4th inning, and Atlanta eventually surrendered 8 runs in a losing effort. The way Kawakami was dealing before the injury, the 4 runs the Braves plated off Yankees pitching that day would likely have held up.
Then there was the gut wrenching loss to close the first half of the season, when the Rockies rallied to win a game that the Braves led by 4 runs in the 7th inning. That game was supposed to be started by Javier Vazquez, who has been Atlanta’s ace this season. However, he had to be scratched from the start due to a lower abdominal strain, forcing the Braves into a “bullpen start”. To make matters worse, neither Mike Gonzalez nor closer, Rafael Soriano, were available to hold Atlanta’s late lead.
Of course, there were a couple of other close games over this stretch that the Braves probably should have put in the win column, but let the game get away. No excuse can be made for those losses. Their bullpen was intact, and holding a lead is part of playing winning baseball. There were also a number of days over this 24-game stretch on which they had to go to battle without one or more their best players. Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Nate McLouth, and Yunel Escobar all missed time over the last month, and those injuries may well have been the difference between a win or a loss on any given day. However, injuries are part of the game, and compensating for the absence of a particular player in the lineup is also part of playing winning baseball.
BUT, in my humble opinion, a game-altering blown call… losing a locked-in starting pitcher in the 3rd inning… or a game in which your scheduled starter AND two best relievers are all unable to pitch… are hardly losses anyone can hold against them. Those are 3 games that fall in the win column if not for a bit of especially rotten luck.
I’m not playing the “would’ve/could’ve/should’ve” game here. My point is simply to say that, while the Braves have played well over the last month, they’ve actually played better baseball than their record over that period would indicate. As any hitter who has every recorded an out on a screaming line drive to the warning track would attest… you don’t always get what you deserve in the game of baseball.
Many national baseball writers and commentators continue to dismiss the Braves due to their lack of “impact power”. But if the last 25 games are any indication – the last 15 in particular – expect Atlanta to be a legitimate threat in the NL East.
What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on these Braves as they kick off the second half of the season?
Posted in General | 12 Comments »
By Kent on Jul 18, 2009 | Reply
To update… they've won 11 of 16, and have played .615 baseball over last 26 games.
By TREY on Jul 18, 2009 | Reply
I think that the braves will ultimately start clicking on offence with or with out another big bat…but let’s face it, we r gonna need another outfielder by next season anyway…so why not go ahead and find someone now that’s cheap in money and prospects?
By Mark on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
thrilled to beat up on the mets, but why cant we win 3 of 4 or 2 of 3 against the pirates, reds, nationals, and rockies??? this is why were gonna be .500 all year. *frustrated*
By Mark on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
thrilled to beat up on the mets, but why cant we win 3 of 4 or 2 of 3 against the pirates, reds, nationals, and rockies??? this is why were gonna be .500 all year. *frustrated*
By Chris on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Looking at our lineup, and comparing it to the Phillies, I just don't see any way we can make up the difference. If they get Halladay, it's all over.
By Jeff on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
This 4 game series against the Wild Card leading Giants is huge, if we can make up serious ground on the Wild Card and get a couple games closer to the Phillies we could be in really good shape.
By KentCovington on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Also, don't forget that they're 12-5 over last 17 games. They're not playing .500 ball anymore.
By KentCovington on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Agreed.
By KentCovington on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Mark, Atlanta is 12-5 over last 17 games. They're not playing .500 ball anymore.
The Braves are a different team than they were the last time they played the Pirates or Reds… and even the last time they played the Nats. I'll have another blog entry up soon to explain what I mean. As for the Rockies… they are a good team now, and were RED HOT when we went into Colorado. And we ALMOST took 3 of 4 from them on their home field. If not for Vazquez, Gonzo, and Soriano ALL being unable to go in game-4 of that series… we win it. Again though, I'll lay something out very soon as to why this is a very different team now than when they played those other teams you mentioned.
By KentCovington on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Chris, given that the Phillies already have a 6+ game lead, if they were to get Halliday before the deadline, I agree… it would be VERY tough to catch them. UNLESS they trade Happ to get Halladay (which is being rumored in some circles). Then they're trading a guy who is 7-0 w. a 2.68 ERA for a guy who is 11-3 w/ a 2.72. I don't see how that improves them much. They would be trading their only excellent pitcher (this year) for a different excellent pitcher. And in the end, they still only have ONE excellent pitcher (with Hamels not looking like himself).
But barring the Phillies adding a major pieces to their existing rotation (keeping Happ as well)… the Braves can ABSOLUTELY catch the Phillies.
It's not offense vs. offense. It's team vs team. What you just said about the Phillies offense vs. Atlanta's can be said conversely about Phili's pitching vs. the Braves. And history has told us that most of the time, you should bet on pitching.
That said, this Braves offense is MUCH better than it was at the beginning of June, or even the beginning of July. I don't mean that it's PERFORMING better, I mean that it IS much better… that it has been transformed. Again, as I mentioned in my last post above, I'll be putting out a blog entry soon to explain what I mean.
But bottom line… offense shouldn't be a problem for the Braves anymore. They're not going to be the Phillies offensively, but this is now an above average lineup. Can the same be said of Phili's pitching right now? No way.
By Keith on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
The world agrees that we are one power bat away from the next level (that bat will arrive next year from the minors). This has been the consensus from day one of season. I believe that we should stand pat and not trade away the future. We will not win this divsion not matter what moves that we make however, the wild card is a strong possibility and this really starts tonight. WE NEED TO WIN THIS SERIES. DO NOT TRADE PITCHING. I expect Heyward will the job next year and provide the power we have desired. The division is gone (but not the wild card) and Phillies are enjoying their time for now. Next year will be different.
By josh on Jul 20, 2009 | Reply
Lets win this series!!! It always feels nice to have a winning record no matter what your standing in the division is. Go Braves