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Braves Offense Now One Of The NL’s Best
Written by Kent on August 8, 2009 – 7:05 pmI recently Tweeted that I felt the Braves now have one of the top 3 offenses in the NL, to which someone responded “Top 3 lineups in the league? Really? I mean I love the braves too, but that’s a reach”.
I understand his sentiment, but my opinion is based on more than giddy optimism or wishful thinking, though I couldn’t explain my reasoning very well under the constraints of 140 characters. To explain my position, let’s look at what this Atlanta lineup has done lately.
The offense scuffled a bit recently for about a week in Florida, and in Atlanta against the Dodgers, averaging 3 runs per game over that period. Against tough pitching, and without their RBI leader, Yunel Escobar, for most of that stretch, Braves bats responded poorly. But both before and after that quiet week, the Bravos have gone a long way to prove that their offensive woes are in the past. Over their last 4 games, Atlanta has touched up Padres and Dodgers pitching for a total of 28 runs.
And before that one-week offensive slump?
For the month of July, only two National League teams scored more than the Braves’ 139 runs: The Cubs (141), and the Phillies (153). Atlanta was also 2nd in team batting average (.284), and 3rd in homeruns (32). It’s also worth noting that both Chicago and Phili play in far more hitter-friendly ballparks than do the Atlanta Braves.
“OK, sure… they had a good month of July, and they’ve scored big in their past few games, but you’re forgetting about the first three months of the season.”
No, I haven’t forgotten. But if you’re going to reference Atlanta’s early season offense, you might as well be talking about last year’s team. This lineup has changed more from the one we saw through the first 2-3 months of the season than many teams change over a full winter of off-season adjustments. The mid-season extreme makeover of this Atlanta lineup is worthy of its own cable television show. They have replaced Jordan Schafer, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur, and Casey Kotchman… with Nate McClouth, Martin Prado, and Matt Diaz/Ryan Church, and Adam LaRoche. They have literally upgraded no less than HALF of the lineup, in-flight.
In short, this isn’t the same team we saw in April or May, or even in June. Not even close. Since the all-star Break, the Braves are 2nd in team average and homeruns, and 3rd in runs scored.
To put the ability of the present Braves offense in perspective… the following numbers are the current statistics of each member of Atlanta’s lineup, projected over 550 at-bats. The one exception is Adam LaRoche. Rather than project his season totals, I used his average post-all-star break performance as point of reference. I have also taken special considerations into account where Anderson and Diaz/Church are concerned, which are explained below.
| AVG | HR | RBI | 2B/3B | OBP | |
| N. McClouth | .261 | 22 | 80 | 35 | .346 |
| M. Prado | .321 | 14 | 66 | 46 | .377 |
| C. Jones | .288 | 22 | 85 | 33 | .404 |
| B. McCann | .294 | 21 | 85 | 48 | .369 |
| Y. Escobar | .304 | 18 | 93 | 50 | .366 |
| *G. Anderson | .301 | 22 | 78 | 34 | .344 |
| *A. LaRoche | .296 | 32 | 93 | 38 | .357 |
| *Diaz/Church | .314 | 7 | 55 | 41 | .376 |
These numbers aren’t ’09 season totals predictions. They are simply intended to put each player’s performance in perspective.
Every single hitter in this lineup, with the exception of Ryan Church, is a threat to go deep. But even more impressive… take another look at those batting averages, on-base percentages, and doubles/triples numbers.
What’s more, Chipper Jones and Brian McCann are clearly capable of better than what they’ve done so far in 2009. Also, it didn’t go without notice that Braves’ GM, Frank Wren, has spent the last few days observing the Mississippi Braves in person. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why. Jason Heyward, arguably the top prospect in all of baseball and current member of the Miss. Braves, may make his big league debut this month or next.
To what was one of the top three lineups in the NL in July, the Braves have added notorious second-half assassin, Adam LaRoche. And the lineup may become better still with the possible 2009 arrival of Heyward.
Don’t look now, but the Atlanta Braves are no longer offensively challenged. They may have dug too deep a hole to earn a postseason berth. We’ll just have to wait and see. But if the wheels don’t fall off other areas of strength this season (such as holding the lead in the 9th), the Braves could at least make things interesting before it’s all over.
What do you think? Do you like what you’re seeing from this offense?
*Garrett Anderson: After missing most of the spring and the first month of the season, May was an adjustment period for Anderson. His projected numbers are based on his performance since June 1. *Adam LaRoche: LaRoche’s numbers were based on his average post-all-star break performance. *Diaz/Church: The numbers for the Diaz Church platoon are based on Diaz’s performance vs. left-handed pitching, combined with Church’s performance vs. right-handed pitching.
Posted in General | 11 Comments »
By Mark on Aug 9, 2009 | Reply
before the season started, i thought that if chipper and mccann didnt hit well and drive in lots of runs that we would be in trouble. i have a totally opposite opinion now. i love the lineup bobby sends out everyday and looking up and down the lineup, im confident that power can come anywhere, which lately it has. kelly has come through back to back nights giving us a power lift and escobar has had some extra spark off his bat to. i love all the trades this year adding mclouth, church and bringing our boy laroche back home. chipper shouldnt feel as much pressure to hit every ball out of the park since were getting hr's from other parts of the lineup.
By Kent on Aug 9, 2009 | Reply
Yeah, this is what they had in mind heading into the season. Wren, Cox, and Co. thought they would have this type of linuep… no 35 HR guys, but 7 or 8 guys who could hit close to 20 HR's or better, a LOT of doubles, and strong averages and OBP's.
It didn't work out that way because Francoeur didn't get it turned around, Schafer couldn't get it going at the big league level (at least not yet), and up until his return from the DL, Johnson was having a career worst season.
But as they replaces those guys, one by one, with payers would WILL give you a strong average, lots of doubles, and 15-25 HR's… the offense started to look like the one they expected to have on opening day. This is a very underrated offense now, and more and more people will begin to see that over the final weeks of the season.
By Adam Wexler on Aug 9, 2009 | Reply
–after DL stint, is KJ back to normal? it'd be great to have a bat like his on the bench for our postseason run
–would you say braves pitching > braves hitting? or other way around?
–crazy how little "lateral" moves can make such a difference!
By Kent on Aug 9, 2009 | Reply
Well, the Braves pitching is probably the best overall in the NL. I'm not talking season totals, as season totals are simply a record of what HAS happened up to this point. I'm saying that right now, as things stand (assuming Soriano's ok and gets over this rough patch), the Braves have best pitching in the NL.
As much as I like what the Braves have done with this linuep, and now believe to be one of the top 3-5 lineups in the league… I wouldn't say this is the best lineup in the NL. So the pitching is still better.
But if you have the best pitching, and the 3rd or 4th best offense… that will translate to a lot of wins. And I think the Braves will play .650+ baseball the remainder of the season, barring substantial injury trouble.
KJ certainly appears to be back to normal. When he's hot, you've GOT to find a way to keep him in the lineup. Cuz when he heats up, he's as dangerous as anyone! I think his nickname should be "The microwave", just like Vinni Johnson years ago in the NBA.
By Mark on Aug 9, 2009 | Reply
the only concern i have bout the rotation is KK, it just seems like he can either go 7+ and give up a handful of hits and 3 runs or less or he goes to mound and gives up 5+ in 4 innings or less. we never know how hes gonna pitch and we need consistency if were gonna make a push into the playoffs. vasquez has been outstanding and if soriano can fix his issues, which you cant blame him completely, for instance, the last game in san diego were up 9-2 and bobby sends him out there…why? we need to conserve his arm as much as possible.
By Kent on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
Well, I have to start off by pointing out that KK is our 5th starter. EVERY staff in baseball has at least one guy (most have at least 2 or 3) in the rotation that you have to cross your fingers with a little bit. And that has been the case to some degree with KK.
That said, overall since May 1, he's been a very solid starter. Since the first of May, his ERA is a (very good) 3.46. And 7 of his last 11 starts have been quality starts (not including the injury-shortened outing vs. NY). When you can get an ERA under 3.50 and a quality start in 2 out of every 3 starts from your 5th starter… that's pretty darn good for a guy at the back end of your rotation.
He doesn't give you as many innings as you'd like. He's averaged just under 6 innings per start since May 1. But he balances out that flaw with one very important quality… HE IS CLUTCH!
If you look at his starts vs. Halladay, the one up in Boston, and his last start in LA when they DESPERATELY needed him to save the bullpen… he came through. He seems to have a knack for stepping up in big situations. And that's always valuable.
As for Bobby using Soriano… if memory serves me correctly, when Soriano pitched in the finale vs. SD, he hadn't pitched in a couple days. So the purpose of that was to give him a tune-up, and get him ready for the LA series.
That said, Bobby DEFINITELY has a major tendency to overuse key relievers. Today is a perfect example. We have a 6-run lead with 2 outs in the 9th, and he brings in Peter Moylan, who is leading all of baseball in appearances, despite being fresh off Tommy John surgery. Wow. Maybe you have to bring SOMEONE in in that situation, but it shouldn't have been Moylan. Somebody like Boone Logan should have been called upon in that situation.
When he gains complete confidence in a certain reliever, Bobby will ride him until his arm falls off.
By daniel_a_fisher on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
I greatly appreciate this insightful post. I wish to add a bit more to it. The recent surge of power has been a surprise to me, the whole team has started to show power that I did not expect to see this season. I am not convinced that the Braves offense will continue to knock homers to the sum that they have in July/August, however they should continue to have increased output over their April-June totals thanks to the lineup additions of Nate McClouth, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Church and Martin Prado.
I personally believe that the spark that has caused this offense to take flight has been addition by subtraction. In removing Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur from the everyday lineup, the team took its two worst regular hitters. Thanks to an average under .230, Kelly Johnson's OBP remains under .300 and Francoeur's was .282 at the time of the Ryan Church trade. Replaced by Ryan Church's .348 (.417 as a Brave) and Martin Prado's .365, that makes a huge difference in offensive opportunities to score runs. Further to my point, instead of a lineup that held three batters with OBP's
By daniel_a_fisher on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
around.300 (Schafer, Johnson, Francoeur), the Braves now have 8 batters every single night that will work counts, get on base and create trouble for opposing pitchers. While no one Brave is considered an excellent hitter, there are no holes in this lineup.
You noted the difference in the offense when Yunel Escobar was out last week versus Florida and Los Angeles. With Omar Infante coming back from injury, that is great news for the Braves. Now if any of the infielders need a day off or get injured, there is a quality replacement waiting. Kelly Johnson also remains a quality bat in my opinion, having a down season. He has shown flashes of his former self this week, making the bench just that much better.
Yes, the Braves are contenders now. The pitching has been there all season and the offense is real. I am going to say it now, after an impressive three games following heat-wrenching defeat on Thursday night in Los Angeles, this team is showing me that they will be there in October. It's time to believe.
By Kent on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
I agree wholeheartedly. I wrote a blog entry about that very thing (addition by subtraction) last month (http://www.bravesblast.com/2009/07/22/it-wasnt-a-... It wasn't a lack of power that hurt the Braves… it was a lack of ANYTHING positive from 3 slots in the batting order.
I think the Braves have a good chance to make the post-season, because as I look at this team with a GREATLY improved offense to go along with the best pitching in the league… I think Atlanta now belongs in the conversation, along with LA and Phili, when we talk about who the best team in the league is.
By Kent on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
Hmmm… that link didn't post correctly. I'll try again… http://www.bravesblast.com/2009/07/22/it-wasnt-a-...
By Kent on Aug 10, 2009 | Reply
OK, apparently it was too long. You'll find "It Wasn't A Lack Of Power" on this page: http://www.bravesblast.com/2009/07/