Fixing the Braves

I cannot be the only one who is just shaking their head at this. It’s clear something IS wrong with the Braves and there needs to be a kick in the pants somewhere.

Bobby, I’ve got the fix. Just trust me and do as I say.

First of all, we’re going to bench Worthless and Strikeout. That’s right, Melky and Glaus are being benched for at least a week. Hell, let’s just drop Melky from the roster. Hinske gets the starts at first and Matt Diaz gets the starts in left. Diaz may take a little bit to spool up but that’s OK. We must remember in this situation that ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN MELKY. I mean really, there is more than one page of results when you search twitter for #melkysucks.

Next, we’re going to restructure the lineup. We’re going to put the guy with the highest OBP – here’s a noble idea – IN THE LEADOFF SPOT. That’s right, Prado gets the leadoff slot until McLouth comes around. Heyward gets the second hole because he’s batting better than anybody else who could go there AND it puts him in front of Chipper and McCann so he has to see good pitches. Here’s the new batting order.

1. Prado (.426 OBP)
2. Heyward
3. Jones
4. McCann
5. Diaz
6. Escobar
7. McLouth
8. Hinske

That should do it. All we’re going to do is change up the batting order so our solid players aren’t spread throughout with guaranteed outs trying to drive in runners in scoring position. We’re not going to let Heyward be protected in the batting order by Nate McLouth and the pitcher any more. It’s time to make some changes. I should mention that Glaus can come back after a week, but Melky should not be let back in the lineup under any circumstances.

So, what do you think of the fixes? Would this do it? If this wouldn’t fix the issue, what would?

Has Terry Pendleton Helped or Hurt the Braves Hitters?

Editor’s note: Several of our writers have varying opinions on TP’s success as Braves’ hitting coach. Expect to see a few opinions expressed in the coming days and weeks as it’s a hot topic in Braves Nation.

I read an interesting article on one Braves’ bloggers thoughts of Terry Pendleton on TalkingChop.com. In this article, the author gives an in depth statistical analysis of how certain players have faired better in Atlanta than in other cities, whether it be before or after their arrivals.

I commented on this article, citing that there are other explanations for a player’s success in Atlanta or lack of success in another city.

There are players that had career years in Atlanta, players that are presumed to have used PEDs (Marcus Giles, Garry Sheffield), players who hit walls after leaving Atlanta, and there is the fact that some players just may be more comfortable playing in the Atlanta environment rather than in other cities.

The analysis was solid, and it did point to success under TP which cannot be denied. If players produce more in Atlanta, whether TP is helpful or not, something is working.

However, in this case, I feel there should be an adjustment made to the Braves staff, and I feel that Pendleton has the target on his back.

There are three particular cases that I feel correlate Terry Pendleton with a lack of success as a hitting coach. Those cases are the failures of Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francouer, and Andruw Jones.

Kelly Johnson currently has seven home runs, eight doubles, and leads the National League in slugging. We all know Kelly is streaky, and his production will certainly come down, but it appears that Kelly is on pace to reach that 25 home run potential that everyone thought he would reach as a Brave.

Scott White of CBS Fantasy Baseball wrote an article on former Braves producing well thus far in 2010, and pretty much nailed the Kelly Johnson disaster in Atlanta on its head, in my opinion.

“See, the surprise with Johnson was more his performance last year than his performance this year. Or at least it should have been. After the way the Braves handled him, you’d never know it.
They grew impatient with Johnson. Wanting to see consistent rather than sporadic power from him, they discouraged the patient approach that made him so enticing in the first place. It messed with his mind, warped his God-given instincts and made him a flailing mess of a hitter.”

These are my exact feelings on the situation as well, and I have felt this same way since before last season even began. The trend of Kelly raising his average, but decreasing his on base percentage, slugging percentage, and home runs was not a trend that I nor any Brave follower should be fond of.

In 2008’s spring training and throughout the season, there were articles written consistently stating how Kelly was going to try to be more aggressive to avoid strikeouts and to try to be more consistent. Everyone would love consistency, but from what we have seen from Kelly over the past half-decade, this just was not going to happen. It is simply not Kelly Johnson, and even I, as well as many other Braves bloggers, understood that Kelly’s potential would not be reached if his approach at the plate, which made him such a great talent, was altered.

Kelly is not the only Brave who saw his career reach its valley as a Brave. Andruw Jones and Jeff Francoeur, two more unbelievably talented players did so as well. Of course, there are many more factors that came into play that saw their production dwindle, but the fact that they did so in a Braves uniform and now are producing better numbers cannot be ignored.

Jeff has not played a full year with the Mets, so it is hard to say that he will be better than he was as a Brave, but in 308 plate appearances last year with the Mets, Francoeur had an OBP of .338 with a 120 OPS+, and this year he has a .349 OBP with a 122 OPS+. These are his highest totals since his first half-season as a Brave. I still think Jeff will come down, but the fact that he improved once he left the team should be noted.

The Andruw story is yet to be finished as well. He had a miserable season with the Dodgers after signing as a free agent and was only average as a Ranger the following year. This year he has been productive, but it is clear that something was wrong for the past few years. I don’t blame Pendleton for Andruw’s demise, but a preventative approach and working with Andruw consistently following his 41 homer season of 2007 may have been better than trying to fix his swing midway through his terrible 2008. It was easy to see that Jones got homer happy, and once that happens it is hard to fix.

Using this season’s Braves’ hitters statistics right now would be silly, due to the fact that we are only a few weeks into the season and some players are bound to hit better, and some are bound to hit worse.

Again, Pendleton cannot be solely to blame for these players performing poorly while in Atlanta, but the fact remains that they did indeed produce career lows under his tutelage. The fact that there have been no career saving stories to match these, shows that Pendleton is at least far from a superb hitting coach. Firing Pendleton may seem like a knee-jerk reaction, but with the offense sputtering for the past few seasons a change seems like it is needed and Pendleton should probably be the one to go.

A Look at Some Braves’ Numbers 4/27

The Braves currently lead the National League in walks. They are the only NL team with an isoOBP (OBP minus AVG) over .100. The Yankees, a team notorious for plate discipline under Brian Cashman, are the only other major league team with such a high isoOBP.

Usually, this would point to some high run totals and short outings from opposing starters. The Braves have been good at forcing some high pitch counts on the starters as of late, but they haven’t pushed the runs across. Here is why:

The Braves rank 27th in batting average, and 25th in extra base hits.

The low rank in batting average may not be as big of a cause for concern as you would think, because they also rank 25th in BABIP, which points to them being at least relatively unlucky. If you take Martin Prado and his .452 BABIP out, the number plummets even further. What this basically says is that the Braves, despite having a good approach at the plate, aren’t getting their hits to land. This is not entirely in their control, and luck is definitely involved when BABIP’s are extremely low or extremely high.

The Braves rank 29th in fly balls with just 244, and 27th in home runs with just 12. This is no coincidence. The Braves aren’t getting any loft on the ball and for that reason, they aren’t hitting many home runs.

In fact, the Braves haven’t hit a home run since Nate McLouth’s walk-off homer. Today marks the one-week anniversary of the last Braves home run and the last Braves win. Again, this is no coincidence. This team does not have many big-time clutch hitters, and the power will have to come back if the offense wants to put runs on the board.

During the losing streak, the Braves have been outscored 23-9. Before the losing streak, the Braves had outscored their opponents 64-57—it now stands at 73-80. This has made their expected win-loss total, or Pythagorean record, 9-10, which is only one away from their actual record of 8-11.

Melky Cabrera has batted .286/.318/.333 over his past seven games. This means he has not been completely miserable as many of us seem to believe, but he has not been very good either. These are pretty pedestrian numbers for any player.

Unfortunately, when Melky Cabrera is on, he is not much better than he has been in his past seven games. To my knowledge, not many have been happy with his production as of late, and the fact that he has been hitting relatively close to his career numbers over the past week shows that he just is not that good of a hitter.

Each Tuesday I will post a similar article, throwing you some interesting Braves stats and trends. Hopefully next week, they are a bit more positive than the aforementioned numbers.

There’s Always Next Year

OK, let’s not lie to ourselves.

The Braves suck.

I mean, I know we can’t keep it up. I know we’ll get better. But what I want to do is caution us against mortgaging our future for the chance to “make a run at it this year.” I’m all for improving the team, don’t get me wrong. If you want to trade Melky and Diaz and a prospect that’s blocked by Heyward or McCann for a left fielder that actually has some pop, that’s fine. I don’t think we should throw in the towel and assume McLouth will never come around – because he will be a good solid leadoff hitter for us soon.

But let’s not get hasty like some writers over at the AJC have suggested and trade for a first baseman like Adrian Gonzalez of the Padres (who has one year left on his contract and a 2011 club option). But seriously, holy shit, ever since we traded for Freddie McGriff every time we can sell off prospects for one year of a power first baseman, we’ve taken it. NO MORE! For crying out loud – we could have Elvis Andrus pushing the airheaded Escobar out of a shortstop job – or picking up Chipper’s slack at third and Neftali Feliz rounding out our rotation with three youngster pitchers who can’t be matched ANYWHERE IN BASEBALL and STILL HAVE BEEN TO THE PLAYOFFS ZERO TIMES!! Let’s face it – Mark Teixeira turned into nothing for the Braves, and the Rangers will thank us for years for making that stupid trade.

We have Freddie Freeman waiting in the wings. He just hit his fourth home run the other day. He will be ready soon. Let’s be patient for once and not sell the farm because we want to win just this one season.

I’d rather write this season off and win the next five than blow our load this season and have nothing left in the future. Sheesh! A few series into the season and it’s doom and gloom. I’m upset too but DAMN IT DON’T TRADE AWAY THE FUTURE AGAIN.

The Braves Hitting Has Been Offensive-ly Bad

As many of you are well aware, watching the Braves this season has been excruciatingly painful for about 80% of the time. Every time Troy Glaus hits into an inning ending double play with Heyward on deck I die a little inside (this may have only happened once or twice but it’s enough). The same can be said for every time our ransom for Javier Vasquez steps into the batter’s box (Arodys you better be one hell of a pitcher). And in spite of great early production from Prado, Chipper, B Mac and Number 22, the Braves find themselves fourth from the bottom in National League OPS. That’s right folks; we have four everyday players with a 900+ OPS (as of 4/22) yet lead only Pittsburgh, New York, and Houston in the category. But following a loss (and another shutout) at the hands of Roy Halladay, the Bravos remarkably sit at 8-6, just one game behind the two time defending National League champions. Timely hitting anchored by solid pitching (5th in NL runs allowed) has allowed the Braves to weather what is hopefully their worst offensive stretch of the season with an above .500 record.

The offense is going to turn around; it just has to. We may not be a top 5 offense in the National League, but we’re definitely better than 12th. One move that would help us score more runs while the team waits for Glaus, Escobar, and McLouth (ehh Diaz and Cabrera too) to wake up is to move Heyward to the leadoff spot. Let me first point out that “leadoff hitter” is not a position; it does not need to be occupied by a 5’10’’ slap hitter with speed. What a team needs in its leadoff hitter is someone who makes the least amount of outs. Just for those of you who are wondering this would NOT be Melky Cabrera (career OBP of .329) or Nate McLouth (.342 career OBP). In over 1000 minor league plate appearances, Heyward sported a .391 OBP and so far this season is getting on base at a .397 clip. Moving him to the leadoff spot means we have the player who is least likely to make outs (besides Chipper but no one is going to move him) getting the most plate appearances. This is a good thing. Having said all this, I am aware that Bobby would likely never make this move. He is as old school as they come and putting a 6’5’’ power hitting rookie at the top of his order is something I doubt he would ever do. Until then we will have to wait for other hitters to get hot before we start scoring runs.

Is Chipper Jones’ Left-Handed Swing Deteriorating?

Chipper Jones is naturally right-handed. A switch-hitter, he learned to bat from the left side because he loved to emulate the Dodgers lineup as a child, and learned to take swings from the other side of the plate.

Jones has stated in the past that his left-handed swing takes a lot more work to keep steady than his right-handed swing. He has many more moving parts from the left side, and despite having better career numbers as a lefty, his swing is starting to slow and deteriorate.

In 2009, Jones had one of his least productive seasons to date. He had a line of .264/.388/.430, with just 18 home runs and 71 runs batted in, both career lows.

However, his problems persisted mostly from the left side.

As a left-handed batter, Jones made 413 plate appearances to go .252/.395/.377, .772 OPS, 9 HR, and 38 RBI last season. From the right side, he made 183 plate appearances to bat .289/.372/.541, .912 OPS, 9 HR, and 33 RBI.

Those are pretty drastic splits. Jones did have a lower on-base percentage as a righty, but that was due to him being able to draw more walks.

Even late in his career and with diminishing power, Jones, a 17-year MLB veteran, is able to get walks from the left side at an incredible rate.

With his left-handed swing, however, his average went down .097 points, and his slugging dropped an astonishing .204 points. He also hit eight fewer home runs in 2009 from the left side, despite having 63 more plate appearances than the previous season.

Jones has been more effective from the right side again this season, while his struggles have continued from the left, where he is currently 3-for-21 with no extra base hits. Granted, it’s only two weeks into the season, but his left-handed swing is very worrisome, especially considering he is the team’s third hitter.

Meanwhile, from the right side of the plate Jones is batting .444 with three extra base hits, including two homers.

If the Braves’ offense is going to be successful, Jones needs to produce from the left side. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen, as it’s clear that he is more consistent from his natural right-handed side.

Jimenez Throws Rockies’ First No-Hitter

If you have to sit through a loss for your team, there might as well be something worth cheering for.  Last night, Ubaldo Jimenez threw the first no-hitter in Rockies franchise history.  It wasn’t the prettiest no-no ever with Jimenez only recording seven strikeouts and walking six, but there were few plays that came close to breaking up the hitless streak.  A seventh inning diving catch by Dexter Fowler to rob Troy Glaus of a hit to left center was the only questionable ball in play.

That leaves three franchises in Major League Baseball without a no-hitter on record.  The Rays, the Padres and (insert joke of choice here)…..the Mets.  Here’s hoping that Jurrjens can spring back to for today after his rough outing last week.

The Shot Heard ‘Round The League

When Jason Heyward made contact with Carlos Zambrano’s first inning 2-0 offering on Opening Day, I began yelling “Get out!” while the ball was in the air. Moments later I realized how foolish this was as the ball had easily carried the right field fence and landed deep into the Braves’ pen. It then dawned on me that Heyward’s blast was quite possibly the hardest hit ball I had ever seen. Since the beginning of Spring Training, Braves fans have been bombarded with numerous Heyward comparables from players, coaches, and members of the media, the most notable of which may have been Bobby Cox comparing the sound of a ball off Heyward’s bat to that of Henry Aaron’s. Following a second inning Heyward double against the Cubs last Wednesday, Peachtree TV analyst Joe Simpson stated, “There’ve been a lot of comparisons from this guy drawn to people like Fred McGriff, Dave Parker, and some others, but that line drive, John (Smoltz), reminded me of Dave Winfield and how hard he used to hit the ball”. While I’m sure Joe has his reasons for this comparison, it would be nearly impossible to research how hard those players actually hit the ball. We can, however, look at how hard contemporary players hit it and put the magnitude of Heyward’s first homer into perspective.

After visiting Hittrackeronline.com, a website designed by engineer Greg Rybarczyk that scientifically estimates homerun distances, it becomes apparent that we have a potential monster on our hands. Over one week into the season, Heyward’s first long ball, which traveled an estimated 476 feet according to the website, remains the longest homerun to date (the next closest belongs to Baltimore’s Luke Scott at 456 feet). In fact, Hittracker’s archives show that it was the longest homerun hit in Turner Field since Mark Teixeira hit one 480 feet in September of 2007!

More importantly is the speed with which the ball left Heyward’s bat (estimated at 120.9 MPH). While it may not matter if a homer scrapes the fence on its way over or carries all the way to “Sky Field” on the scoreboard, homerun distance is a reflection of bat speed which is a pretty good gauge of a player’s strength. Since 2007 only 5 long balls have come off of bats faster than the one Heyward hit off of “Big Z” which is a testament to the athlete’s raw power. Of course, the Braves are not looking for a player who can win Home Run Derbies, but this raw power combined with plate discipline makes for a scary out.

Week 1: Roster Recap

Well week one of the 2010 season is in the books and the Braves have one series win and one series loss for a 3-3 record.  We need to take every series this season to have a chance.  I figured at this point, we should do a quick trip down the roster and see how everyone’s doing so far:

Melky Cabrera – Melky’s struggling a bit at the plate, batting .120.
Brooks Conrad - Has come off the bench for pinch hitting and running roles in 4 games.  Has struck out in both of his at-bats but will be useful down the stretch.
Matt Diaz – While hitting .231, Matty has struck out in 5 of his 13 at bats.  Consistent in the clutch however, he has 2 RBI with his 3 hits.
Yunel Escobar – Started on fire with 5 RBI in the home opener but has only added 1 more since.
Troy Glaus – Troy struck out in 6 of his first 8 at bats, but has started to pick it up.
Jason Heyward – Leads the team with three HRs and 17 total bases.  Also leads with 9 strikeouts.  The kid’s for real, but will have his ups and downs.
Eric Hinske – Leads the team with a .833 slugging percentage in his pinch hitting roles.
Omar Infante - Gaining some playing time due to Chipper’s injury, Omar’s batting .250.
Chipper Jones – Left midway through the team’s third game and has gone -2-for-9 from the plate, one of which was a home run.  Hopefully we’ll see him back in the lineup on Wednesday.
Brian McCann – Mac has homered twice and is batting .294.  Perfectly content if he can keep that up.
Nate McLouth – Nate still hasn’t shaken his spring training woes, though the hamstring looks healthy.  He’s batting .154.
Martin Prado – Martin continues to prove he was the right choice for the starting 2B job.  He’s leading MLB with a .554 batting average after the first week of the season.
David Ross – Has gone 1-for-3 at the plate and provides respectable backup for McCann.

I’ll touch on pitching soon, but we need to focus on getting those series wins against the Padres before heading back to Atlanta for a tough homestand.  So what do you think after the first week?  Concerns?  Optimistic?

Derek Lowe v.2010

Today’s post is from an old friend, Ryan Pye, who we’ll hopefully be able to convince to put something together for the site now and then in the upcoming season.  Pye may not be a Braves fan, but maybe that’ll help cut down on our homering a little bit.  Thanks, Pye.

Many people expect the Braves to be in the thick of the playoff hunt this year, and I am on the bandwagon as well. The main reason I think the Braves will earn a spot in the playoffs is the depth of their starting pitching (though I would have been much more bullish on their chances had they not made the Melky for Vazquez trade). Even with the loss of Vazquez, who received some Cy Young attention as well as leading the team in FIP with a 2.77 (which was 3rd best in all of baseball) and WAR with 6.6, the rotation should be solid. Having a full year of Tommy Hanson will help immensely but an area that could also be a way to recover some of Vazquez’s value would be a rebound year from Derek Lowe.

If you watched Lowe last year, you probably wanted the Braves to get a refund on the $15,000,00 that Frank Wren gave him. Unfortunately you will not see me saying Lowe will be worth his salary this year, but I do think he will be more valuable than he was last year.

Lowe’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year was a fairly sizable .330 while the MLB average was .299 (and MLB average BABIP tends to hover around .300 each year). Without getting into the semantics of why (other than to say we expect Lowe’s BABIP to regress to the mean), we are fairly confident that Lowe’s BABIP will come down, which will lead to less hits and less runs. For this reason alone, I am fairly confident we will see a more productive Lowe this season.

In addition to that, Lowe’s K/9 dwindled to 5.13 and his BB/9 increased to 2.91. Both of those numbers are significantly less useful than his stats from 2008 (K/9-6.27 and BB/9-1.92). While I do not think Lowe will ever reach those levels again, both his K/9 and BB/9 stats were worse than his career averages, with the K/9 being about .8 less per game. Perhaps both of those are just forecasting the gradual decline of Lowe’s skill set, I think both of those numbers will be better than his 2009 numbers.

Lastly, even if Lowe pitched exactly as he did last year (no change in K/9 or BB/9), he still would most likely have a better year this year. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from 2009 was 4.06. This statistic is saying that, factoring out the defense Lowe received, he should have had an ERA closer to 4 than it was to 4.7. Add in the fact that Melky Cabrera and Jason Hayward will be taking away some of the fielding opportunities from Matt Diaz, Lowe’s stats are due for a regression. And in this case, a regression is a good thing.

Observations From Opening Day

• Heyward sure looks like the real deal.
• Brian McCann could get some MVP votes this year if his spring/opening day performance is any indication.
• There may be no 40 homerun hitter on this roster, but the Braves lineup is STACKED with very good hitters, and there is more power here than most people realize. (The bench is stacked as well).
• Derek Lowe’s got to get back to whatever he was doing in the spring that allowed him to consistently keep his sinker at the bottom of the zone.
• Yunel Escobar might be the best RBI producer in baseball with fewer than 25 homers (he drove in a career high 5 on Monday).
• Melky Cabrera was the only Braves starter without a hit (0-5 with a walk).
• Peter Moylan’s changeup is having the desired effect on left-handed hitters… outs.
• Billy Wagner was throwing 97mph with relative ease, and opposing hitters looked as helpless against him as ever.
• The Back end of the Braves’ bullpen, as a whole, looks SICK (in a good way). Absolutely dominant on Monday.

So that’s just the start of it, but how do you feel after Opening Day?  Here’s to hoping we can crack the scoreboard tomorrow.

2010 Braves Predictions

It won’t be long now. The Ted is officially open for business and opening day is just hours away. This is the EXACT same feeling I used to get a day or two before Christmas as a kid. Just doesn’t get any better than opening day for a true baseball fan. With spring training coming to a close, I thought I’d pass along my official Atlanta Braves predictions for 2010.

NOTE: The following predictions assume relatively good health for each and every player. I fully realize that health isn’t something that can be assumed at all, but I won’t attempt to predict who will or will not be healthy.

STARTING LINEUP:

*This is provided that M.Diaz receives at least 450 AB’s. He may not reach that total if he is forced to share significant time with M.Cabrera (or potentially even Jordan Schafer later in the year).

STARTING ROTATION:

BULLPEN:

NOTE: I’m only projecting only the 5 relievers who are relatively certain to man the bullpen though the entire season.

TEAM ERA: 3.40

Runs Scored: 787

Record: 94-68

While the individual player predictions above assume a healthy season from that particular player, the projected record and other team predictions take into account a typical degree of wear and tear.  Feel free to chime in with your 2 cents and predictions of your own. And let’s get some hardball goin’ y’all!