Resurgent Rotation & A Look Ahead At The Phils

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio commentary, Kent Covington talks about the Braves resurgent rotation, fueled by the recent strides of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami… and looks ahead at the upcoming series with the first place Phillies. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Gwinnett Braves Starter Todd Redmond Throws No Hitter

Todd Redmond, a prospect with only the hope of being a backend major league starter, threw a no hitter tonight against the Louisville Bats for the Braves’ triple-A affiliate, the Gwinnett Braves.

The 25-year-old Redmond struggled at Gwinnett last sesaon, capturing just a 4.74 FIP and 4.41 ERA in 145 innings in his first triple-A stint.

Redmond struck out just three batters in his no-hit performance and allowed two baserunners, both via the walk.

This is awesome for Redmond, but you should not put too much stock into this one start. He has been having yet another rough year at Gwinnett (5.70 ERA prior to tonight’s start, although he did have a 5.38 K/BB ratio) and expecting much out of him in an Atlanta Braves uniform is not very wise.

Props to Todd for throwing the no-hitter, and although he may not be a star prospect he does provide the Braves with some more depth in the rotation and as we saw in 2008, pitchers can go down quickly and frequently.

The best part about this no hitter, is that the final out was Chris Burke. Yes… that Chris Burke.

All NL East Teams Are Within 4 Games, Braves in Position to Make Move

The Mets, Marlins, and Nationals are all within four games behind the division leading Philadelphia Phillies while the Braves are a game and a half back.

Either this speaks to how good the division is compared to what many thought, or it speaks to how many flaws the Phillies truly have and how average the division is.

Prior to the season, the Phillies were projected to win the East by a majority of the baseball world. The prediction seemed rather accurate when you consider how much success the Phillies have had the past two years as they have made the World Series in both seasons and won in 2008.

The problems that I and many other NL East followers saw were a less than stellar bullpen with little to no depth, and a rotation with more back end types than front end. The injuries have been the biggest problem for the Phillies, but as of late it has surprisingly been their bats that have went cold rather than their bullpen blowing late leads.

It is only a matter of time until the Phillies get it together at the dish, but with Brad Lidge, Jimmy Rollins, and Ryan Madson on the shelf it is time for one of the other NL East teams to make a move on the Phillies.

The Braves are in prime position to do so.

With a series against the Marlins coming to a close and Tim Hudson on the mound against Ricky Nolasco, followed by a six game home stand vs. both Pennsylvania teams, the Pirates and the Phillies, the Braves have a big seven games ahead of them.

With a 13-6 record at home including six walk-off victories, the Braves have shown that winning in Turner Field is going to be tough for any visitor to do. The Braves put together a good series against the Pirates last week, and with Lowe, Medlen, and Kawakami going it sets the Braves up perfectly against the Phillies with both Hanson and Hudson getting starts against the division’s top team.

The NL East is all jumbled up right now and each team must recognize the importance of surpassing the Phillies while they are still rather injured. The Braves still boast the most consistent rotation in the division, making it easy to give them the best shot to hang around until later in the season than the rest of the 24 win NL East teams.

Atlanta has been playing great as of late, and the trend must continue through June, a notoriously rough month for the Braves season after season, if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2005.

Looking Back On Wren’s Moves

With just over one quarter of the season in the books, I have decided to go back and judge (albeit prematurely) Frank Wren’s off-season performance. At 25-22, the Braves’ record is slightly better than it was it this point a year ago (23-24) even with the nine game losing streak. Listed below are a few off-season moves made by GM Wren and their impact on the club.

1) Signing Troy Glaus to replace Kotchman/LaRoche

While Glaus has improved on his horrific start (.601 OPS in April), he is still a below league average first baseman. What I mean by this is if NL teams were conducting a draft for THIS season only, with salaries being equal, I believe Glaus would be selected somewhere between 9th and 12th. Having said that, salaries do matter, and Glaus’ (1 yr/ $1.75M) was virtually zero risk. Still, attempting to sign LaRoche for a contract similar to the one he has with Arizona would appear to have been the better move. He is tearing it up out west (an .879 OPS) and has traditionally gotten better as a season goes along (career second half OPS of .909). Although he was never anything special defensively, Glaus looks much worse at first base so far. Wren probably feared blocking first base prospect Freddie Freeman by signing LaRoche to a multiyear deal, but Freeman is only twenty years old and does not have great numbers above “A” ball so far (not everyone is Jason Heyward).

Verdict: Glaus is likely to continue his solid offensive play, but LaRoche would have been a better option if we had the coin to sign him. Freeman will likely start by 2012, but there are no guarantees. It makes no sense that the Braves did not at least attempt to negotiate with LaRoche.

For the Record: The NL first basemen that I would for sure take over Glaus this year (salaries equal) are Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman, and Derrek Lee.

2) Trading Vazquez and signing Huddy

Both Vazquez and Cabrera have been terrible (and I mean really terrible) so far this season. The difference is Melky has a pretty average to mediocre track record while Javy is likely to turn things around. Either way Tim Hudson has more than filled Javy’s shoes so far this season and for a couple million dollars less. While I believe Hudson’s numbers will come back down to earth eventually (his 2.24 ERA is over two runs less than his 4.50 xFIP), it appears that keeping him over Vazquez was the right move. Perhaps more importantly is the fact that the Braves received the nineteen year old Arodys Vizcaino in the deal who has pitched brilliantly so far in his minor league career.

Verdict: Good, possibly, great trade. Even though we did not get the power hitting outfielder Wren may have wanted, we are better off in the short term with Hudson over Vazquez, and Vizcaino looks like he is going to be a stud.

3) Replacing Garrett Anderson with Hinske

This was a good move for dozens, if not hundreds, of reasons. Two weeks ago I wrote that Hinske should start in left but not to get too excited. While I still support my statement, he has been exceptional to this point and here’s to hoping it continues all year.

Verdict: You are an idiot if you do not think this was a good move and please never comment on this website again.

4) Replacing Gonzalez/Soriano with Saito/Wagner

This may have been Wren’s riskiest off-season move(s). Saito and Wagner are not getting any younger but have pitched very well this season. Between the two of them, they have 39 IP with 48 SO to only 15 BB while giving up only 12 ER. That’s good. Also, Mike Gonzalez’s arm may fall off any second now, and while Soriano may have pitched well so far, Wagner has matched him.

Verdict: So far so good. If these two keep the ball in the yard and stay healthy we are going to win more one run games than we lose.

Wren’s moves have ultimately made this team a little better, and I believe this combined with the promotion of Jason Heyward has made them significantly better. If this assessment is correct, this should be team that wins ninety plus games. It sounds weird to say that and injuries always have the possibility to derail teams, but I am feeling pretty optimistic right now.

A Look at Braves Recent Performance… & Calling Out Jeff Schultz

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio commentary, Kent Covington talks about the Braves recent performance and takes Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Jeff Schultz to task over a recent column of his. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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At The Risk of Sounding Insane, Pat Burrell to Atlanta is a Risk Worth Taking

Most around the Braves blogosphere are very against the idea of bringing Pat Burrell to Atlanta. He’s in his thirties, he has had a poor year and a half outside of Philadelphia, and he is simply awful defensively.

Not much has gone right for Pat since his departure from the NL East. He hit just 16 home runs in almost 600 plate appearances while with the Rays. Simply put, he was a wasted free agent signing for a team that has a limited payroll.

Burrell was recently released by the Rays, and the team who signs him, if any, will only have to pay a pro-rated league minimum contract. With the season nearly a quarter of the way through, it would be roughly $300,000 if a team wants to take a flier on him.

Pat is far from a team or offensive savior, but with Matt Diaz recently put on the disabled list, I simply ask why not? Sure, Burrell has looked awful in the past year and a half there are many claims about his bat speed slowing drastically. Even so, at such a small price he could bring value to a lineup which has struggled against left handed hitters, and which has no current platoon partner for Eric Hinske.

Prior to signing with Tampa, Burrell posted four straight seasons with a wOBA over .374. His lowest home run total in those three seasons was 29, in a season in which he played just 144 games. He was at the peak of his career, and most of all he was consistent.

He, for whatever reason, hit a wall once he left Philadelphia. This is eerily similar to the fall of Andruw Jones as he had an abysmal 2007 season in Atlanta followed by an even worse 2008 in Los Angeles. The following year the Rangers decided to stick their neck out and give Jones a chance without giving him a starting role and he was relatively productive. Prior to this season, he signed with the White Sox and appears to be back to being a productive hitter.

Of course, this is just one player of the thousands that have eventually fallen off in their early thirties, but good things have come out of making these low risk and high reward moves.

I’m not vying for Burrell to get every day action or even to be the regular platoon partner with Eric Hinske, but with a bench spot open for the time being and Pat Burrell available on the market, he could end up hitting some homers, drawing some walks, and killing the Mets as he did in Philadelphia. If Burrell fails and his at bats look awful, then simply release him and we are back to where we are now. If he reverts back to his form prior to his days with the Rays, then the minimal risk we took has paid off.

The Offensive Ups and Downs

Kent Covington addresses the Braves’ offensive woes and recent resurgence in his first “Fried Baseball” audio commentary for BravesBlast.com. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Life After Death

Since losing nine straight games at the back end of April, the Bravos have won eight of their past twelve ballgames and outscored their opponents 68 to 39 in the process. With a record of 16-18 the Braves now head back to Atlanta for three games with the struggling D-Backs, and two with the Mets and Reds each. Here are four brilliant thoughts to mull over in the meantime.

1) Heyward moved up in the order

Finally. As Colin and I have called for in recent weeks, Jason batted third in the final two games against the Brewers. In his two games in the three hole, J Hey reached base safely seven times in eleven plate appearances while stealing two bases and scoring six runs. He is good, and his placement in the top third of the lineup appears to be permanent as he is likely to bat second when Chipper returns. A top three of Prado, Heyward, and Jones is infinitely better than any order with Melky or McLouth in the top spot. This also shows that Bobby still has a pulse. My reoccurring nightmare of waking up in August with Heyward still batting 6th seems to have finally gone away.

2) Eric Hinske should start in left, but don’t get too excited.

It was nice to watch two consecutive games without Melky Cabrera in left. Hinske filled in beautifully and now boasts a triple slash of .333/.409/.538 in 44 plate appearances on the season. While this is obviously unsustainable, his career OPS against right-handers is a serviceable .806 and platooning him with Diaz seems to be the Braves’ best bet (also, for what it’s worth, he has a positive career UZR in leftfield). Meanwhile, Melky can fight over playing time in center with McLouth. Here’s to hoping Jordan Schafer can contribute at some point this season (LOL, ROTFL, and FML).

3) Tim Hudson is getting really lucky

His 2.64 ERA is simply a statistical anomaly. In 44 plus innings pitched Huddy has only managed 17 strikeouts while issuing 18 walks. What is helping him is a batting average against balls in play that currently sits at .234 compared to his career mark of .288. He has an unsustainable strand rate of 86% (compared to his 73% career avg) as well as a remarkably high ground ball rate of 66%. The bottom line is that his K/BB ratio has got to improve, because his BABIP will only get higher. And if the latter happens before he starts missing more bats, the runs are going to come in bunches.

4) Defending Chipper Jones

Maybe this is because my fantasy team really needs him to turn things around, but I feel the urge to defend CJ 10. Sure he looks like catcher Jake Taylor at the plate, but his OBP this season is an impressive .407 (his career mark is .406), and his slugging percentage is going to come around. I would be shocked if it ends up lower than last year’s mark of .430, a career low. All things considered, the only two hitters I would rather have up at the plate, in almost every situation, are McCann and Heyward. Yeah, my fantasy team is screwed.

Glavine’s #47 To Be Retired

Mark your calendars for August 6th, Braves fans.  Before the Braves take on the Giants that evening, Tom Glavine will be inducted into the Braves Hall of Fame and then, in a pre-game ceremony, his number will be retired.  This will be the seventh retired number for the Braves; Glavine will be joining company of Dale Murphy (3), Warren Spahn (21), Greg Maddux (31), Phil Neikro (35), Eddie Matthews (41) and Hank Aaron (44).

In 17 seasons with the Braves, Glavine amassed 244 of his 305 career victories and attempted to return to the Braves in 2008 but was placed on the DL and had surgery after just 3 starts.  Glavine has assumed a new role with the Braves this season, however, working as a special assistant to John Schuerholz and taking some TV and radio broadcasting duties.

Welcome to the club, Tom.  We’ll see the likes of Chipper and Smoltzie up there with you soon.

A Look at Some Braves’ Numbers 5/5: The Heyward Edition

In the past week, the Braves are 3-3 with a sweep of the Houston Astros in between a nine game losing streak and a series opening loss to the Washington Nationals last night.

Here are some stats from the past week of play.

The only player with an OPS above .800 is Jason Heyward, at 1.994.

Nate McLouth, Troy Glaus, and Melky Cabrera have all been better than they have been the whole season, sporting .762, .760, and .753 OPS’s respectively.

Chipper Jones is 2-18 with one double, no RBI, and a significantly lower SLG(.167) than OBP(.273). To say the least, Chipper has had a rough past six games.

Martin Prado has also started to slump, going just 6-25 this past week with a line of .240/.269/.280 and just one double.

There are only two players with more than one extra base hit through these past six games, Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth. Nate McLouth has a double and a home run, while Jason Heyward has hit four home runs and one double. They are also the only two Braves to put the ball over the fence since the Braves thrilling walk-off victory against the Phillies, which coincidentally was hit by McLouth, and the game-tying homer hit by Heyward. Combined, they have hit the Braves past seven home runs.

On the pitching front, Kenshin Kawakami has gotten hit rather hard in his past two starts, amassing 9.1 innings and a 6.76 ERA with just 5 strikeouts to four walks.

Tommy Hanson went eight strong in his last start while allowing just two earned runs, and he will go again tonight.

Kris Medlen has been solid in relief, totally five innings pitched with just five baserunners and one earned run allowed.

Jesse Chavez’s stats entering Friday’s relief appearance were 9.1 innings, 0.96 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 9 k’s, 1 BB, 5 hits allowed.

His numbers now stand at 12.1 innings, 5.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 13 K, 3 BB, 12 hits allowed. Over the past three innings pitched, Chavez has allowed seven hits and two walks, good for a 3.00 WHIP.

But enough with the negative stuff, lets get back on Heyward and his unbelievable past six games. Of players with at least 19 plate appearances, Heyward leads the league in OPS over the past week of play. His 1.375 slugging percentage also ranks first, as does his .619 on base percentage.

My last musing on Heyward’s past week is his RC/27, or his runs created per 27 outs. Basically it says how many runs a team full of a certain player would score. So if there were nine Jason Heyward’s playing over the past week, they would score 34.19 runs per game, again the highest total in the league.

Is Kenshin Kawakami That Bad?

A couple of people have posed this question to me in one form or another over the past week or so.  I heard it again this morning coming off of yet another Kenshin Kawakami loss last night to the Nationals so I figured it’s time to address the issue.  Is KK the best pitcher on this staff?  Absolutely not, but he’s a hell of a lot better than his 0-5 record indicates.

Kenshin is pretty much as advertised.  He’s a 4th or 5th starter for a squad and we all know that he won’t go very deep in games (he’s averaging around 5.1 innings per start so far this season).  That’s nothing to be hugely concerned about though; I have a lot of faith in our bullpen.

To answer the question however, is Kenshin Kawakami really that bad?  No!  The root of the problem is the same that it has been for every pitcher on the roster not named Derek Lowe……..run support.  At the start of last night’s game, TV coverage had an unfortunate stat.  Kawakami was receiving the 3rd lowest run support in his starts as a pitcher in all of baseball.  I don’t remember who had the lowest, but 2nd place went to another Brave, Jair Jurrjens (different rant for a different day).  The number?  1.25.  In his 4 starts leading into last night, KK was receiving an average of 1.25 runs of support from his offense per game. 

Kawakami isn’t giving up huge numbers of runs in his games (3, 4, 3, 5, 3) but even after last night, he’s still only receiving an average of 1.6 runs of support per game.  Honestly, how is he supposed to win with those numbers.  In his 5 starts this season, the Braves have scored 8 runs, had 28 hits (5.6 hits/game) and made 8 errors in the field.  If you’re not going to score runs, at least straighten up the defense a little bit!  I feel a little bad for Kawakami.  People will look at his 0-5 record and his 5.47 ERA and think he just doesn’t have what it takes to help carry this Braves team.

We know he’s going to give up 3 or 4 runs an outing, but on paper, this offense should be able to handle that.  Maybe I was wrong in thinking that however.  Yes there are areas where Kenshin can improve his game.  Try to get a little deeper in the games and strike out a few more batters…….and apparently hit a few long balls at the plate to help his own cause.  Maybe it’s just me, but I think Kenshin’s getting the short end of the stick.  Anyone beg to differ with me?

Time To Hate On Mark Bradley….Again

AJC sports writer and eternal pessimist Mark Bradley could have waited until Sunday before writing that “these Braves aren’t going to win anything”. But even after the club’s weekend sweep/absolute drubbing of the lowly Astros, don’t hold your breath for Bradley to rescind his April 30th nail-in-the-coffin declaration. After all, we’ve already played 15% of the season which means that only 85% remains. To steal an analogy from Frank Wren, this would be like declaring the Falcons (with a record of 1-1) out of the NFC playoff race at halftime of their third game. For you golfers out there, it would be like saying Phil Mickelson had already lost the Masters because he played the first eleven holes in (+1) on Thursday. No self-respecting journalist would ever jump to either of these conclusions (barring a serious injury to Matt Ryan or Carl Spackler cutting the bottom of Lefty’s hamstring), yet Mark Bradley has done so for the Braves.

What makes Bradley’s comments even more senseless is that just ten days earlier he wrote this on his AJC blog, “I’ve said it before, and I say it again: Something’s happening here. The Braves are believing in a way they haven’t believed since the run of division titles was broken in 2006…they’ve got a difference maker on their side now, a difference-maker who isn’t yet old enough to take a legal sip of champagne. Be he will be come October”. These warm and fuzzy comments came on the heels of the Braves’ epic comeback win over Philly (you know the one) and seem to insinuate that the Braves will be playing in October. Silly Mark! He was basing this prediction on only a couple swings of Jason Heyward’s bat, so he decided to be reasonable and base his latest on a nine game skid. At least his sample sizes seem to be increasing, but in the meantime I am going to try avoiding anymore journalists’ predictions; they tend to blow things out of proportion.