Braves Benefit More Than Most from September Call-Ups

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington looks over the Atlanta Braves’ newest additions with the roster expansion and outlines the potential impact of the September call-ups. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below!

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2010 Braves Extreme Values

Having three of the worst players in the National League would seemingly ruin most teams’ chances of making the playoffs, but not the Atlanta Braves’. While three of their opening day starters (four if you include Derek Lowe) have done their best to continue Atlanta’s postseason absence, three others have been amongst the best in the league. Here are six players, three on each end of the spectrum, that have had the greatest impact on the Braves’ season so far.

The Good

1) Brian McCann (4.9 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 6th in NL)

No one seemed too worried after Brian’s OBP dipped to .349 a season ago and with good reason. His eye problems are seemingly a thing of the past as he has produced a triple slash line of .281/.388./.484 so far this season. The plate discipline is back, and most defensive metrics say he has significantly improved his performance behind the plate as well.

2) Martin Prado (4.0 WAR, tied for 16th in NL)

Many Braves fans were happy to see Kelly Johnson go last off-season. While he has bounced back (in a big way) out in Arizona, Prado has all but matched his output in Atlanta. Although his bat looks better at second, he is clearly more comfortable playing third base, the silver lining of Chipper’s injury.

3) Jason Heyward (3.8 WAR, tied for 23rd in NL)

Undoubtedly the single most important upgrade from last year’s team was the promotion of Jason Heyward. The Braves’ right field, despite Matt Diaz’s best efforts, was a disaster last season. Everything totaled, Francoeur, Diaz, and Ryan Church combined for an OPS of .743 at the position. Heyward’s triple slash line of .278/.389/.475, however, has made the Braves forget about all that. Everyone knew he was going to be something special, just not this good this early.

The Bad

1) Troy Glaus (.4 WAR, 9th worst among all qualified NL players)

Troy’s second half has made May a distant memory, and April seem quite vivid. Bad legs seem to have been his undoing, and the Derrek Lee trade spelled the end of any significant playing time. There is a good chance he has started his last game as an Atlanta Brave.

The Ugly

1) Melky Cabrera (-.6 WAR, dead last among all qualified NL players)

Not much to say here. Francoeur plate discipline + softball power + shoddy glove = worse than a replacement level player. If Frank Wren has any sense, and I believe he has lots of it, Melky will be non-tendered this off season.

2) Nate McClouth (-1.3 WAR, dead last among ALL NL players)

He does not even have enough plate appearances to be qualified, yet he still tops the list for the worst offensive player in the National League. Unfortunately, I just wrote about one of his replacements; the other isn’t much better either. Regardless of what level he plays at next season, the Braves are on the hook to pay him $6.5 million. Oh, and they will have to pay another $1.25 million to buy him out for 2012 as well.

The Braves Are In The Driver’s Seat Down The Stretch

Dan Perry of FoxSports.com said today that he considers the Braves 3-1 favorites at this point to close the deal and win the NL East. I agree. 3-to-1 sounds about right to me.

Here’s why Atlanta has the edge…

First of all, obviously, they’re already in first place, three full games up on the Phillies, who just suffered a four-game sweep AT HOME at the hands of the Astros. But beyond the standings, Atlanta has the easier schedule from here on out.

The Braves, owners of baseball’s best home record (44-17), have 20 home games remaining, compared to the Phillies’ 16 games left at home. Also, Atlanta will play only 3 more games this season against a quality team, other than the Phillies. They’ll play a three-game set vs the Cardinals next month at Turner Field. The Braves will not see a single comfortably-above-.500 team on the road for the remainder of this season.

The Phillies, conversely, are about to fly west for 3-game sets in San Diego and Los Angeles. To make that road trip even trip even less pleasant… rather than enjoying a scheduled off-day that was to immediately follow this 6-game west coast trip, the Phillies will instead fly to Denver to make up a game that was rained out at Coors Field earlier this year.

Oh, and one more thing to consider regarding the schedule… If the division race isn’t decided by the end of September, the Bravos have the edge there as well. The Phillies and Braves will wrap up the season with a 3-game set AT TURNER FIELD, October 1-3. That is the regular season equivalent, for the Braves, to having games 6 & 7 of a seven-game series on your home field.

As for the makeup of these two division rivals, the Phillies have compiled and impressive “big-3” at the top of their rotation (Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt). However, that trio is no more dangerous or effective than Atlanta’s trio of Hudson, Jurrjens and Hanson. And when you compare the bottom of each rotation and the bullpens of these two teams, it’s apparent that the Braves still have the advantage in the pitching department. On the other hand, the Phillies have more offensive thunder, when firing on all cylinders.

At this point, I don’t believe either team is clearly or substantially better than the other. But because the Braves already hold a 3-game advantage and have the easier schedule from this point forward, Phillies fans have good reason to watch the Wild Card race more closely than the NL East standings.

Having said all of that, Philadelphia is only 3 games back with 30+ games remaining. The Phillies are still very much in this thing, and this race is far from over. Pennant fever is back in Atlanta! There are roughly 5 weeks of baseball left in this 2010 season, and they should be a helluva lot of fun!

Throw in your 2 cents below! Think the Braves will seal the deal?

PS… find me on Twitter, @FriedBasBallATL

Omar Infante’s Second Half

Everything totaled, Omar Infante has been a pretty mediocre hitter since he came up with Detroit back in 2002. His career triple slash line of .275/.319/.399 supports that statement. He has well over twice as many strikeouts as walks while only occasionally flashing any power; a good offensive comparison for Braves fans would be Jeff Francoeur who has a career line of .266/.308/.424. Braves fans, however, know a different player than the one that spent six seasons in Detroit. Since coming over to the Braves (and National League) in 2008, he has been a significantly better hitter. With the tomahawk on his chest, Infante has played to a respectable line of .318/.360/.425. Remember how the media used to refer to Edgar Renteria as a National League player? Well Infante’s defensive versatility would actually justify that label, and he appears to have improved his hitting since coming over to the senior circuit as well. Combining his ability to play several positions well with an improved bat has earned him recognition as one of baseball’s premiere “super utility” players, and Bobby Cox has loved having him as a weapon off the bench.

But since the All-Star break, Omar has been much more than just a valuable role player; he has been the Braves’ MVP. While filling in for Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, Infante has had the best stretch of his career. Of all National League players with at least 125 plate appearances since the break, only nine have posted a higher OPS than Infante’s mark of .957. There is also a good chance that the stretch is a result of improved skill rather than statistical variation (a.k.a. a “hot streak” or luck). In 205 PA prior to the break, Omar only drew 9 walks while striking out 39 times. But in his 133 PA since coming back from Anaheim, he has 8 walks compared to just 11 strikeouts. Although the walk rate has remained somewhat similar, his strikeout rate has plummeted over the past 34 games. It is quite possible that Omar’s ability to make contact has improved since becoming an everyday player. Whatever the reason, the change in strikeout rate is so drastic that it appears Omar has actually gotten better as the season has gone along.

The stretch also highlights the fact that Omar is having the best season of his career. A major reason for this is his batting average on balls in play which is a ridiculously high .393. Although this number is almost certainly unsustainable, there is reason to believe that he will continue to post a higher BABIP than his career average of .315. Several weeks ago I wrote that Jason Heyward needed to start hitting more fly balls. In Omar’s case the opposite has proven to be beneficial. For the season, 46% of his batted balls have been grounders compared to his career average of 37%. For someone who is not a power hitter such as Omar, this is a good thing. His homerun to fly ball rate, although still relatively low, is also the best it has been since he hit 16 big flies for Detroit back in 2004.

While I am not ready to confidently say Omar will continue to produce offensive numbers significantly better than those of the past two seasons, the Braves would be crazy to decline his 2011 club option worth $2.5 million. He has clearly improved since coming over from the American League, and there is no one else in the organization that can come close to replacing him. If he can continue to keep the strikeouts down, the Braves should be more than thrilled to start him at second base next season if Chipper decides to hang it up.

Jason Heyward And Groundballs

Here are the play-by-play accounts of Jason Heyward’s at bats Wednesday night courtesy of ESPN.com:

Bottom of 1st: J Heyward grounded into double play.
Bottom of 3rd: J Heyward grounded out to second.
Bottom of 5th: J Heyward grounded out to shortstop.
Bottom of 6th: J Heyward grounded into fielder’s choice to first.
Bottom of 8th: J Heyward grounded out to first.

While viewing this performance from Section 211 at the Ted, it dawned on me that Jason Heyward does in fact hit a lot of groundballs. Thanks to fangraphs.com’s “batted ball” data, I now know that my amateur scouting report was accurate. Of all the balls Heyward has put into play this season, a whopping 55% have been hit on the ground.

Only nine players have hit a higher percentage of groundballs this season, and the list isn’t pretty: (in order) Derek Jeter, Juan Pierre, Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, Denard Span, Skip Schumaker, Hunter Pence, Ryan Theriot.

However, none of these players have an OPS even close to Heyward’s current mark of .823. This is likely because of two reasons; the first of which is because Jason has a higher bat speed than any of the aforementioned players. Because of this, his grounders are hit “harder” and have a better chance of making it through holes in the infield. Likewise, his fly balls are hit deeper, increasing their chances of making it over the fence. Secondly, Jason has more plate discipline than anyone on the list as well, meaning that he draws more walks. Fortunately, groundball percentage is about the only thing Jason has in common with others on the list.

Regardless of the fact that he is clearly a better hitter than any of the aforementioned players, this is not a list that Jason wants to be on. Pitchers want Jason to hit the ball on the ground, and he is obliging them. In his last 207 plate appearances, he has hit only 1 homerun. Compare this to his first 185 plate appearances in which he hit 10. Remember those majestic bombs he hit back in April and May? They show he is capable of being the power hitter Braves fans yearn for, but he will have to develop into such. In over 1000 minor league plate appearances, Heyward only hit 29 long balls. An old scout’s adage tells us that power is the last tool to develop. Well Jason clearly has it; he just needs to use it by hitting the ball into the air more.

David Ross Signs On For Two More Years

The Atlanta Braves have signed catcher David Ross to a two-year contract extension.  Ross was eligible to become a free agent at the end of this season after signing a two-year, $3 million deal before the 2009 season began.

In the season and a half that Ross has been in Atlanta, he has served as a stable backup for Brian McCann, hitting .272 with 38 RBI.  Additionally, this season, he has thrown out 7-of-15 baserunners and only has a single error.

Personally I’m thrilled with the signing as I think David Ross is the best backup catcher the Braves have had in awhile….don’t get me wrong, I loved Corky Miller…..wait no, I didn’t.  I don’t fear a game where McCann sits out and Ross has to play.  There’s power in the bat and solid defense that can be expected when he’s in the game.  I’ve seen some rumblings around the web about people saying McCann should move to first base and let Ross be a full-time catcher in the future.  I’m still not too sure what I think about that however.  As for the extension at hand….love it.  Time for the Braves to get back in the win column tonight against the Nationals.

At The Break As The Best Team In The National League

If only this Atlanta Braves team could do everything I wished for, we’d be set for years to come.  Ten days ago, with 9 important division games standing between the Braves and the All-Star Break, I asked for 3 series wins to finish out the front half of the season. Sure enough, here we are at the break after doing just that.  The Braves took 2-1 series wins over the Marlins, Phillies and Mets bringing the team record to 52-36 to this point.

The Braves sit 4 games atop the National League East with a 4 game lead over the Mets and a 4.5 game lead over the Phillies.  The  Marlins and Nationals round out the division 10 and 13.5 games back respectively.

The first half of the season was far from perfect however.  We’ve tried our best to forget about the abysmal baseball the Braves were playing in April, culminating with a 9-game losing streak.  Injuries have hampered the team at times.  Heyward and Diaz have missed time along with Jair Jurrjens.  Diaz and Jurrjens have recently returned to the squad and things are looking up on that front.  Jason Heyward has decided to sit out in his first All-Star selection to rest his injured thumb.  He should be back in the lineup for the Braves shortly after the break and hopefully picking up where he left off before the injury.

It’s a much needed break for the team, with the exception of the Braves’s 5 All-Stars (6 counting Billy Wagner who will not take part in All-Star festivities).  Here’s hoping the team will come out firing on all cylinders after the break, much like they did in the 2009 season.   It’s great to see winning baseball back in Atlanta and like I said, if the Braves just keep winning series, there will be a little extra baseball around the Ted come October.

Over Bobby Cox’s Tenure, Bench Production Coincides With Winning

This year, the Braves are in first place despite getting as close to no offensive production from their shortstop and center field positions. Their right fielder, while productive for the first two months, has been a weak spot since the beginning June when Jason Heyward first injured his thumb. To top it off, the right-handed portion of their left field platoon has been injured for a majority of the season. Most teams would be buried if two talents like Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar flopped in the first half, but not a Bobby Cox team.
With the Braves being hurt by injuries and poor play at many different positions, it is surprising that this offense can still be as potent as it is. The key components to keeping the offense productive have been Omar Infante, Eric Hinske, Brooks Conrad, David Ross, and to an extent, Melky Cabrera.
Hinske has moved into the left-handed role in the left field platoon, and although he has slumped lately, has produced well. The flexibility of both Infante and Cabrera has also helped in covering up the problems the Braves have faced in the outfield.
Cabrera’s best suited for a fourth outfielder and not every day play. Since being removed every day play in left field against righties and in center field against lefties, Cabrera has seen his production increase. After having an awful May, Cabrera has been at least league average in on base abilities since, which is all you can really ask for from a fourth outfielder.
Infante has played everywhere in the field and his play so far this month has made up for Heyward’s absence from the top of the lineup. Infante has had either two hits or two RBI in each of the Braves wins this month.
Last night, both shined in the victory and even went back-to-back to give the Braves the lead. As surprising as that is, it isn’t surprising that the Braves bench has been key in the first half of the season.
In the past, Cox has gotten Lonnie Smith, Brian Hunter, Deion Sanders, Charlie O’Brien, Tony Graffanino, Gerald Williams, Eddie Perez, Randall Simon, Wes Helms, Matt Franco, Julio Franco, Mark DeRosa, Eli Marrero, Wilson Betemit, Charles Thomas, and Ryan Langerhans to all provide offensive value from the bench during the Braves run of 14 straight division titles. Those players never had much more production after, if any, in other places aside from DeRosa and, to a marginal extent, Tony Graffanino. These players weren’t the reasons for the Braves success, but their production gave them a great boost, for sure.
The ability to have flexible players who can fill in and produce when called upon gives a team the ability to adapt when poor play or injuries do occur. Baseball is a random sport, some players have off years when they are expected to perform well and the reasons vary from player to player. This has happened this season and it has happened in the past. While the 90′s Braves avoided the injury bug for the most part, there were cases when players were called upon and they performed even better than expected.
One thing Bobby Cox has always been able to do is get the most out of his fringe starters and bench players. I’ve stated this on numerous occasions in the past and even before this season. Eric Hinske, Matt Diaz, Ross, Infante, Cabrera, and Conrad make for a very productive group that are far from black holes when put into the lineup. Each has a niche whether it is plate patience, defensive flexibility, power, or the ability to hit a pitcher with a certain handedness well.
While it is easy to criticize some of Bobby Cox’s in-game management decisions and bullpen decisions, as I most definitely have done, he puts his backups in positions to succeed. Infante’s career OPS+ is 87, but with the Braves it is right at 100 over 773 plate appearances. In 234 plate appearances over the past two seasons, David Ross has an OPS+ of 124 and has 21 extra base hits. Matt Diaz was nothing until he came to the Braves, and now he has a 111 OPS+ over 1368 PA’s.
The bench management is the most overlooked part of Bobby Cox’s game. The Braves won because of pitching in the 90′s, but what they also got were great performances from unexpected players. Cox knows how to utilize them the correct way and get more out them than any other manager. When looking back on Bobby’s career, there is probably nothing he did better than manage his bench players and fringe starters. Regardless of who he had on the bench, he made sure that they were ready to play and ready to produce, which has helped get the Braves to October in the past and certainly looks like it will help them get there once again this year.

What You Might Not Realize About This Braves Offense

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington breaks down Atlanta’s offense… Have we seen it at its best? Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Does Omar Infante Deserve To Be An All-Star?

You probably don’t need me to tell you this, but…..

Omar Infante is a good utility player, but does not deserve to be an All-Star. Not even close. I know I know, he is a valuable member of the Braves’ roster and has the propensity to deliver clutch hits in critical situations such as last Friday against the Marlins. Great. So does Ryan Zimmerman…or Josh Willingham…or how about the NL OPS leader Joey Votto? Of course Zimmerman or Votto will likely be the last player voted in by the fans, but that still leaves two of the other three that are not on the roster while Omar Infante is.

Perhaps Phillies’ manager Charlie Manuel was drawn to the fact that Infante can play virtually every position on the diamond. After all, that, and not his singles bopping bat, is why he is so valuable to the Braves. But with the expanded rosters totaling 34 players per team, the need for a utility man becomes nonexistent as Manuel already has at least one backup at all of Omar’s positions.

In all fairness to the Phillies’ skipper, his hand was forced by the rule that every team has to have at least one All-Star. As a result he was forced to select Marlon Byrd (Cubs), Chris Young (D-Backs), and Michael Bourne (Astros), all of which are outfielders. But he should have picked our old friend Kelly Johnson from Arizona over Young, giving the squad more infield depth. Then he could have selected Zimmerman over Infante, giving the NL three players at second, third, and short each (as well as seven outfielders). Instead Manuel decided to carry a below league average hitter with an OPS of .717 on his roster.

From a Braves fan perspective, this is bittersweet. It is great to see one of our unsung heroes get nationally recognized, but we also need the NL to win this game. There is a good chance Infante will not get into the game, but if he does, I will be wishing that a better, more deserving player were up at the plate or out in the field.

Braves Snag Five All-Star Spots

When all was said and done with All-Star voting, the Atlanta Braves walked away with five selections for the 81st All-Star game, held in Anaheim on July 13th.  Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Tim Hudson, Omar Infante and Martin Prado will all represent the Braves in the Midsummer Classic.

Jason Heyward is the second youngest player to ever be selected to start in an All-Star Game.  Though on the disabled list, Heyward will be activated before the game.  He will travel to Anaheim but will likely not play in the game.

Martin Prado received his first All-Star selection after a dominant first half of the season where he lead the NL in batting average and MLB in total hits.  Prado placed second in voting to Chase Utley, who has been disabled with a thumb injury.  As a result, Prado will likely start the game for the National League.

This is also the first All-Star selection for Omar Infante, whose selection came as a surprise.  Charlie Manuel added Infante to the National League roster on account of the versatility he provides in a utility role for the Braves.

Tim Hudson received his third trip to the All-Star Game, but his first with the Braves.  He last represented the A’s in the 2004 game.  After returning from Tommy John surgery last sesason, Hudson has compiled an 8-3 record and posted a 2.37 ERA in 2010.

Brian McCann receives his fifth All-Star selection in his fifth full season in the majors.  Though his production is down from 2009, McCann still leads all NL catchers in batting average.

The Braves have a chance to send a 6th player to the Midsummer Classic in the form of Billy Wagner.  He has been selected as one of the five NL Final Vote competitors, where the fans have the opportunity to select the final player on the team roster.  Wagner is facing off against Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez and Heath Bell.

There would be no better send-off in Wagner’s final season, where he has served as a dominant closer for the Braves, than an All-Star selection.  Vote now to get Wagner in the All-Star Game!

Clutch Hits Aplenty

The Braves once again pulled out an exciting (if not sloppy) win in eleven innings.  There were so many story-lines coming from this game, but none greater than the clutch play of Prado, Blanco, Infante, and Glaus.

Prado had three singles last night, bumping up his average to .337 and furthering his already distended hit count to 114 — SEVEN more than the next closest bat in the entire league (Robinson Cano of NYY).  Clutch aspect: Prado had the first two RBIs of the game.

Blanco continued right where he left off in June, going two for three tonight with a walk.  He was the only Brave to cross the plate through the first 10 innings of play tonight for the Braves.  This play is not out of place for Blanco who has been playing great as of late.  He’s making a strong statement to be part of the lineup, but with Hinske also playing some great baseball, I think we will see these two sharing time out in left.

Glaus came up big in the bottom of the 11th, redeeming the error from the top of the inning in a big way with a huge double.  After being on an 0-20 drought, this hit couldn’t have been any more timely.  Despite going one-for-five in last night’s game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have some great games to close out the first half of the season.  That smack can inspire confidence in even the lowliest of slumping sluggers (to which fraternity Glaus does not yet belong).

And finally, the hero of the night: Omar Infante.  You can’t say enough about this guy.  Very much in the same vein of Gregor Blanco, Infante has been a quintessential utility player — showing up to play and getting huge clutch hits like we saw last night.  Incredible situational hitting has been the calling card of the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

With all of this in mind, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an Infante, Blanco, or Hinske move up to the 2-slot behind Prado until Heyward gets back in shape.  I think it would create some fantastic scoring opportunities that we’re going to need to get win these final three series before the break.