Pondering The Phillies

Erik of PhilliesFlow.com was kind enough to take some time to answer some questions about the Phillies yesterday. If you haven’t checked it out, it’s a great blog full of stats and good insight on the Phillies. Great way to keep track of what’s going on up in the City of Brotherly Hate. I also answered some great questions he had about the Braves, so check out his blog for that Q&A session.

BravesBlast: With Jimmy Rollins on the DL until at least next Monday, how are the Phillies picking up the slack?

Erik: Eric Bruntlett gets the call at short now and forever until the Phils get Rollins back. After a miserable start he’s been good defensively, but the Phillies have no chance to replace Rollins’ offense at the position. One of the things that has Phillies’ fans excited early is that the team is playing well without Rollins. Basically they’ve been managing to win games paced by unbelievable hittting from Utley, who hit seven home runs in seven days, and Burrell, who set a team record by driving in 24 runs in April. The bullpen has also been other-worldly, far better than just about anyone had expected.

BravesBlast: The Phillies’ bullpen has been very successful this year - introduce us to the key pieces and tell us what your thoughts are.

Erik: Brad Lidge is the biggest story for the Phils, not allowing a run in his first 11 appearances for the Phils as he knocked down six saves. Coming into Wednesday night’s game, Lidge, JC Romero and Rudy Seanez had combined to allow one earned run in 31 1/3 innings. Seanez doesn’t see as many of the pressure situations that Lidge and Romero do, but the trio has been impressive.

Tom Gordon is another guy that Manuel feels comfortable going to with the game on the line. He got bombed for five runs in a third of an inning on opening day but has been lights out since. In his ten appearances after his first time out, Gordon threw to a 1.80 ERA with a 1.00 ratio and struck out 12 in ten innings.

Chad Durbin generally gets the call in long relief and he’s been very good as well, throwing to a 1.56 ERA coming into Wednesday night’s game. He leads the pen in innings pitched with 17.

Seanez, Ryan Madson and Clay Condrey make up the rest of the pen and most often fill out when the game is out of reach one way or another. I’m a little surprised we aren’t seeing more of Seanez given how effective he’s been early, but we’ll see if his role evolves. Madson has struggled early, but will likely find himself in a bigger role as the season progresses. Condrey will give the Phils innings until the next time they DFA him, but it probably won’t be pretty.

A big issue for the Phils pen is the lack of lefties. Romero is their only southpaw and it puts a lot of pressure on Manuel to keep the Phils’ left-handed starters (Hamels and Moyer) in the game, especially if the Phils’ opponent has big lefty sticks in their lineup. We saw that in a game last week when Hamels stayed in to throw 121 pitches against the Brewers and lefty Prince Fielder lit him up for his second home run in the eighth. The Phils will put another lefty in their pen before too long and it may be Steve Kline.

BravesBlast: Where are the spots in the lineup opposing pitchers can hope to get a break from the offense? And how good is your offense when you’re not hitting BP in the launching pad that is your home field?

Pretty much everyone except Utley, Burrell and Jayson Werth haven’t done much with the bat this month. Utley and Burrell have just been ridiculous. The lineup is weak at the bottom where you’ll often find Feliz, Ruiz and Bruntlett all in a row. Those three are all righties, too, so the bottom of the order is especially vulnerable to a good righty reliever. The Phils also pretty much can’t hit for Bruntlett cause if they do they have to move Feliz to short, and that’s not what you’re looking for.

In 2007 the Phillies scored more runs in their games away from home than any other team in the NL (if memory serves, the Mets and the Braves were both in the NL last year (could be mistaken, we could probably get someone to look that up if need be)). Primarily due to the extended loss of Rollins and the miserable start by Howard, the Phils’ offense is down across the board in 2008. It may be down all season, the Phils scored nearly 900 runs last year, but by the end I expect they will be among the league leaders in runs scored both overall and on the road if not at the top. Citizens Bank Park is a great place for hitters, but the Phillies’ hitters would be really good without it.

BravesBlast: Let’s Mets bash. Can they keep it up? How tight is the race going to be in the final months of the season, and who’s in on the chase?

Erik: Fraid so. On paper they’re the best team in the division. On the other hand, they were last year as well and that didn’t end up helping them much. The Mets certainly seem like they could implode at any time in some spectacular fashion, but even if they do I can’t see them not being in the picture down the stretch. I think the Phillies and Braves are going to be in striking distance when September rolls around, so it may come down to who plays the best at the end of the season.

The Fish have been fantastic in the early going, but even with all their impressive young talent they may be a couple of years away from being a legitimate contender for the division.

BravesBlast: One of my good friends (sadly a Phillies fan) told me the starting rotation scares him. Tell us who pitches behind Hamels and Myers, and whether or not they’re decent and who we can tee off against.

Brett Myers got the start for the Phils on opening day, but Cole Hamels is without a doubt the Phillies’ ace. The Phils are counting on Myers and Hamels to carry the load when it comes to the rotation, cause they’ve got a lot of question marks behind them.

Sadly for the Phils, only one of the duo is getting it done so far. Myers has struggled to find his velocity, often working in the mid to upper 80’s, and been banged around a bit. After six starts his ERA is over five and he’s allowed ten home runs over his last 32 innings.

Myers and Hamels are the guys the Phils are really counting on, cause there are some big potential problems looming behind. Jamie Moyer is amazing. He’s 45 years old and a treat to watch when he’s on. He has come up with huge performances in big games for the Phils, but he also gets bombed every so often. Even when he doesn’t he can’t go real deep into games, so it puts a burden on the pen.

Adam Eaton pitches behind Moyer, looking to rebound from a season where he threw to a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts for the Phils. He started off the season strong, throwing to a 4.12 ERA over his first three starts. He’s struggled more his last two times out — in both games he seemed to be cruising but then got lit up quickly in a big inning that chased him out of the game.

Kyle Kendrick rounds out the rotation. The 23-year-old is coming off of a fantastic surprise of a rookie season in which he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts. Kendrick is a guy that just about everyone expects is going to slump this year. His numbers overall with the Phils last season were better than his minor league numbers, he doesn’t strike anyone out and lefties kill him. He’s been hit pretty hard this year and sports a 5.13 ERA after his first five times out.

Overall I’d say there’s good reasons for concern when it comes to the Phillies rotation. At least one of the guys behind Hamels and Myers won’t make it through the season, but Myers is the real problem for the Phils if he doesn’t start to pitch better. The Phillies are counting on Myers to stabalize things, and if he can’t get his problems figured out the Phils don’t have anyone in the organization with the talent to replace him. It will be interesting to see where the Phillies go when they have to make a move at the back end of their rotation. Giving Chad Durbin some starts may be the first choice. Kris Benson is rehabbing, I don’t think there are many people who think there’s any chance he can help the team before June, if that soon. The Phils do have some touted (at least by the Phils) arms in the minor leagues — if they have to go there my guess is that Josh Outman might get the first call.

Thanks once again to Erik from PhilliesFlow for his insight and willingness to share his opinions. I answered some questions from him about the Braves - don’t lose the opportunity to go check out his blog.

NL East Power Rankings

It’s time for our first series of NL East Power Rankings. Power Rankings indicate who has the power and momentum in the division and with three contenders this year, they’ll change weekly. So who is at the top? Who is at the bottom? And why do the Marlins have the same record as the Braves?

#1 - The Atlanta Braves
The Braves (3-3) have come out of the gate with their offense firing on most cylinders. The scary part of that is they’re still 2nd in the NL in average (.292), runs (40), slugging percentage (.470) and OPS (.822). They’ve already shown their ability to battle back and put games into extra innings, as well as outscore the Mets 14-6 in the last two games. Their pitching staff is not working as it should yet - the bullpen is recovering from early jitters and Mike Hampton is back on the DL (Surprise? Hardly). But solid starts from both John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens have put the Braves in a good spot to be - at the top of the division early.

#2 - Florida Marlins
How are these guys able to be 3-3? They’ve taken it to the Pirates. I don’t think they’ll be in the #2 position long, so don’t get used to it. They’ll begin climbing the ranks downward.

#3 - New York Mets
These guys would be in the two position were it not for the Marlins’ strong start. Santana is looking good, Pedro is hurt and their offense wasn’t clicking during their last series against the Braves. The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been stellar so far either. But they’re the Mets, and they’ll surely rebound strong. Can’t discount them.

#4 - Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies may be in the cellar right now as far as standings go, but they’re not completely dead yet. However, they’ve had issues with the starting pitching and relief corps. And their highly touted offense has had a slow start - scoring only 27 runs so far - that’s fourth in the NL East.

#5 - Washington Nationals
The Nationals have issues. They just lost a series - the entire series - to Cardinals. The Nationals did eek out a win against the Braves to start the season (lucky break on that Moylan pitch), but they’re going to need to start winning the easy games against the teams that are worse than them. Thus, they’re in the basement, at least for the first week of the power rankings.

Did I mis-rank the teams? Any of the 12 Marlins fans that are young enough to own computers want to whine about them not being at the top? Leave us a comment and we’ll hash it out.

The Mets’ Injury Woes?

It’s not September and the Mets are already showing signs of collapse.  Yes, 8 games into the preseason, they’re already facing some issues with their antique roster. Their prize catch, Johan Santana, is healthy and looking good, but beyond that there’s not much good news.

• Moises Alou will miss the beginning of the season with hernia surgery - out 4-6 weeks
• Marlon Anderson and Ryan Church banged each other up when they collided in a game earlier this week - Church sustained a concussion and Anderson apparently bruised his chest and banged up his jaw.
• Carlos Delgado, who had elbow and wrist surgery a couple years ago, and ended last season with a broken hand and some knee/hip issues apparently is having hip issues again.  And by apparently having hip issues, we mean he got sent back to NY for an MRI.
• Carlos Beltran is having knee trouble - may be just a long recovery from his knee surgery 3 1/2 months ago, but it’s not encouraging news.
• Pedro apparently had a toe issue, but he pitched a simulated game yesterday, though his pitches lacked movement.

So it’s not September, and the Mets are already showing signs of collapse.  They better hope that these injuries heal up or all the Santana pitching in the world will do little good.  They lose a lot of offensive firepower with Delgado, Alou, and Beltran nursing little bumps and bruises here - and the real hard playing hasn’t even started yet.

Mets fans hate to hear it - but if their aging veterans can’t escape their injured pasts, the Mets may not be a legitimate contestant in the NL East this year.  David Wright can only do so much by himself.

2008 NL West Preview, Part I

The time comes as spring training continues to develop that we dig into the other divisions in the National League, and today we’re looking at the NL West. 2007 saw the Colorado Rockies win not only the wild card but the NL Championship. Though the Diamondbacks took the division title, both the Rockies and the San Diego Padres were within striking distance down to the last couple of games. The West was definitely the strongest division last year, but what is in store for this year?

Arizona Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks won the division by the skin of their teeth last year (though they held the best record in the NL), and we can expect them to make a run for it once again this year. They have some great talent on the team in Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew. They also have enthusiasm (Eric Byrnes), veteran leadership (Randy Johnson), and the ace of the rotation (Brandon Webb). Oh, and they added Oakland’s Dan Haren. They’ll be a very dangerous team, once again expected to finish first in the division.

Colorado Rockies - The Rockies came out last year with a confidence in themselves and took it all the way through the playoffs. They possess one of the strongest offenses in all of the National League - if not the strongest. They play a mile high, which helps a bit, but they’re just good. Their pitching staff was top 10 across the league in ERA, Batting Average Against, OPS, Saves, WHIP, and Quality Starts, so they’re not shabby and have outdone the Coors’ pitching staffs of yesteryear. This year expect to see more of their potent offense playing really good baseball. Holliday, Tulowitzki, and Helton will be sure of that. Their pitching staff led by Jeff Francis, and filled out by Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Hirsch/Morales will probably produce about the same results as last year, barring any unfortunate injuries. I think the Rockies will compete for second with the Padres in this division in 2008.

San Diego Padres - The Padres barely missed out on the playoffs last year, but we’ll see where they land this year. Once again led by a very strong pitching staff consisting of ace Jake Peavy and Chris Young, veteran magician Greg Maddux, and filled out by Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. Their offense features Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez - and there’s nothing super special about it. But that’s OK - their pitching staff is easily arguably the best in the NL. These guys are the opposite of the Rockies - if they struggle, it’ll be their offense.

Part II will come soon, so check back for the Dodgers (who have made all kinds of changes) and the Bonds-less Giants. Til then, enjoy the spring training ball.

Santana Tagged Up!

So perhaps even better than the Braves’ 10-3 win over the Dodgers yesterday is the Mets and their 5-4 loss to the Cardinals. Here’s why: Johan Santana got tagged for 4 hits, 1 home run, and three earned runs in two innings.

Now I know this is only the Grapefruit League - wins and losses don’t count, and it’s for practice purposes. But someone needs to let Johan know that even though the record doesn’t count, he shouldn’t run around giving up hits and home runs. I mean, the guy could have only pitched to six batters and gotten back to signing autographs and being worshipped.

If it’s not bad enough that Santana got tagged for a big home run, he gave it up to none other than Juan Gonzalez, who hasn’t even played the last two years and had only one at-bat in 2004.  It’s not like he gave it up to Albert Pujols, people.

Total Stats for Santana: 2 innings pitched, 10 batters faced, 4 hits, 1 home run, 3 earned runs, 1 strikeout, 1 induced ground out, and 4 fly outs. ERA: 13.50

Where’s your god now?

2008 Preseason Awards

We’re going to dig into this year’s preseason and hand out some of our own awards and make predictions as to the end of season awards.

Preseason Team Awards

Best AL Team: Detroit Tigers
Best NL Team: New York Mets (I said it, but I’m not happy about it.)
Most Hyped Team: New York Mets
Worst AL Team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Worst NL Team: Florida Marlins (this was a no-brainer.  The state of Florida is apparently cursed.)
Best AL Division: The AL East beats out the Central for this title with the Blue Jays being the determining factor.
Best NL Division: The East is strong (and beats out the West) with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all looking for the division title.  We should see some great baseball out of this division all season long.
Worst AL Division:  The West is going to be ugly with Oakland, Seattle, and Texas.  Texas should be on the rise, but Oakland completely disassembled whatever they had last year in their fire sale.
Worst NL Division:  The NL Central has a couple teams that are decent (Chicago and Milwaukee), but Cincinnati, Houston, and Pittsburgh bring the division down to the worst in the NL.

This year is going to be fun to watch in several divisions - the AL East and Central promise to be intriguing, as do the NL East and West.  The Tigers and Indians are going to create some great story lines, and we’re all familiar with the NL East and the competition we’ll see there this year.

Preseason Individual Awards

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL Batting Title: Ichiro Suzuki
NL Batting Title: Matt Holliday
AL HR Title: Alex Rodriguez
NL HR Title: Ryan Howard

There we go - our projections for the individual awards in 2008.  No, we don’t think Johan Santana will win the NL Cy Young award this year - he’s a great pitcher, but I think Peavy will pull it out this year.  The others don’t have many surprises - Matt Holliday is a very solid hitter that is only helped by the fact that he plays in Colorado.

Phillies’ Closer Lidge Reinjures Knee

This may change things.  Brad Lidge reinjured his knee yesterday on his first pitch off a mound.  He remains optimistic that it’s just some scar tissue that came loose, but the full extent of the injury should be known today.

Lidge, the Phillies’ scheduled closer, had surgery on the same knee in October, when doctors removed scar tissue.  He was the Phillies’ biggest off-season acquisition, supposedly allowing Brett Myers to return to the starting rotation.

More as we hear it - but this could shake things up.  Without a legitimate closer (other than pulling Brett Myers from the rotation), the Phillies have even more pitching issues than they’d like to admit.  They may need every run that high-flying offense produces, because without Myers in the rotation, their starting pitching is mighty thin after Cole Hamels.

Trading Perspectives - With a Phillies Fan

BravesBlast took a moment recently to exchange questions and answers about the NL East with our pal Erik Grissom over at PhilliesFlow.  Since we always give you the Braves’ fan perspective on things, here’s the division from the Phillies standpoint.

BravesBlast: With the addition of Johan Santana, the Mets are probably the team to beat this year in the NL East.  Where do you see the division breaking down after that?

PhilliesFlow.com: With the addition of Santana, I see the Mets as the front-runners in the NL East.  I still think all three teams are very close, but I would go Mets/Phils/Braves 1-2-3 at this point.

The separation between the Mets and the Phillies is very small.  The Mets did have a better off-season, but the Phillies won the division last year despite the fact that they gave 30 starts to a guy with a 6.29 ERA and with just about the worst offensive production from third base in the NL.  You would think those would be areas in which it would be easy to improve.  Given how close the Mets and Phillies are, I truly believe the Phils are better off in the role of underdog. Read more »

2008 Preview - New York Mets, Part II

We’ve all heard it.  The Mets traded for Johan Santana and they no longer have any flaws.  They’re the strongest team in baseball.  In fact, the Mets could put on skates and beat the 1980 Olympic USSR hockey team, according to some Mets blogs.  You are all also familiar with my stance - Santana is a fine fix for now, but is not a blanket solution for every issue they face as a team.  But, since they traded for Johan Santana after I wrote my initial Mets 2008 Preview, I have to redo this along with my pre-season division predictions.

Read more »

Friday Fun - on Chipper and the Mets

Well it’s Friday and we’re one day closer to pitchers and catchers reporting next Thursday on Valentines day. For those of us who are single, it’s what we’ll have to look forward to. Until then, there’s plenty happening in the baseball world/blogosphere.

For one, Mets fans seem upset that anyone would doubt their acquisition of Johan Santana as a one-man savior. Over at MetsMerized they’re making a big deal out of my statement that they may regret the money they’re paying Santana in the years to come. Read more »

$137.5 Million? Really?

We’ve raised questions all along about whether or not Johan Santana is really the one player fix everyone is making him out to be, but this is downright stupid.  Santana signed a six year, $137.5 million contract with the Mets.  We’re talking one player that plays every five days bringing in an average of $22.9 million over the next six seasons.

That’s around $694,000 per start.

Or, if you choose to break it down by the game, he gets paid $141,350 a game, whether or not he plays.

And that’s assuming he doesn’t miss a start through 2013, Read more »

The Breakdown: Is Santana really THAT good?

In our quest to determine exactly how much Johan Santana actually adds to the Mets’ starting rotation, we’re going to delve into the their starting rotation before - and after - Santana came into the picture. In honesty, looking at the rotation, Santana is replacing Tom Glavine after his return to the Braves. The other four starting slots are more than likely to stay the same - Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Orlando Hernandez round out the rotation.

Let’s look at their stats from the last two seasons combined: Read more »