Who would have thought that Andruw’s absence would have been such a downgrade in power numbers over the past year. It was no surprise we weren’t getting much out of left field, we didn’t last year in terms of slugging and homers. Yeah, Andruw still hit 26 homers and surprisingly had 94 RBI, but about HALF of his at-bats were with runners on and 170 of his 570 at-bats had them in scoring position. Ridiculous, this season, we can’t get guys on, guys aren’t getting over and no one’s driving anyone in.

Yeah, we have the second highest run differential in the East, but about 90% of that is thanks to the ridiculous consistency we are getting from our pitching. How much better would we have been last year with a guy like Campillo (Campillo, btw, is hitting .222, same as Andruw last year, he may have had 90 RBIs batting in the position Andruw did in our line up) or if Reyes didn’t walk every second batter he faced?

2007: Keep in mind,  before you read these stats, these numbers are with Craig Wilson’s 58 at-bats (.172), Scott Thorman’s 287 at-bats (.216), Chris Woodward’s 136 at-bats (.199) and Ryan Langerhans’ 44 at-bats (just three hits in those at-bats, THREE! Julio Franco had that many in ONE game last year). All of those numbers right there are about an entire person’s average for a season, that’s 525 at-bats and 102 hits…seriously those are real numbers, that’s a .194 batting average between three guys. Lots of what-ifs surrounding last year’s team.

In 2007, the Braves finished third in the NL in batting average (.275), and scored the third most number of runs with 810. One of the reasons they were able to do so well was clutch hitting. Guys like Frenchy had ridiculous numbers in the clutch, but we’ll get to those later. With runners on at all, Atlanta hit .284…that went up with runners in scoring position to .291. They hit just .265 with runners and scoring position and two outs, but that was second in the league behind Pittsburgh (.267).

However, last season, just as they do this season, the Braves did hit poorly in close and late situations. Those situations, as described by The Language of Baseball are “situations in a baseball game in the seventh or later inning with the any of the following conditions: score tied. one team leading by a run, or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck.”

In those instances, the Braves came in eighth at .257 with only 112 runs. Compare that to St. Louis who led the league with a .313 batting average and Houston and Philly who both scored 141 runs in those situations.

Fast forward to this 2008, Braves are down two guys that were stalwarts on the field in at least the past two seasons: Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones since 1997. The Braves, after 92 games, are ninth in the league in runs scored (405, Chicago is tops at 487), yet third in batting average(.263, Chicago is tops at .282)…kind of makes you wonder.

As a team, the Braves are .262 with runners on at all, but not even in the top 10 with RISP, they are 11 with a .252 batting average (Chicago again is at #1 at .282) and EVEN WORSE(!) with RISP and two outs; in those situations, the Braves are hitting a paltry .222 (Pittsburgh leads there at .290, LAD is second at .259, pretty big gap).

In late innings at all, the Braves are hitting an eighth-best .250 while Chicago leads the NL again at .276.

It has been obvious what this team needs from about the beginning of June when Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz went down and we could not find suitable replacements that were at least able to slug as much as those guys. Blanco did an excellent job, but there’s a reason Greg Norton’s a bench player (he’s a damn good bench player, but not meant to start) and Brandon Jones, Josh Anderson and Jason Perry can only be good for so long without proper minor league development (which begs the question, did we really bring these guys up to help us or to showcase them for Pittsburgh in case of a deal for Xavier Nady or Jason Bay).

The pitching has been stellar, but has been coming down to Earth a little bit after a great start. We are getting more innings out of our guys, but Charlie Morton isn’t the replacement for Tom Glavine. He’s just not seasoned enough in the minors. Will he be an excellent pitcher next year? Maybe, but I think for us to know for sure he needs to pitch against triple A guys before he comes back here. He has been getting hit around a lot in his most recent starts.

In June, without Glavine’s two starts, the Braves had a 3.86 ERA. However, this month Atlanta has a 4.14 ERA, of course a lot of that has to do with the 81 hits they’ve allowed in 87 innings pitched.

On an individual level:

• McCann hit .270 with 18 homers and 38 doubles, not his usual numbers but they are respectable and solid numbers
• Kelly Johnson hit .276 with 16 homers, 26 doubles, 10 triples and 68 RBIs, pretty solid for someone at the top of the lineup as much as he was.
• Renteria/Escobar hit .329 between the two of them with 85 RBIs.
• Chipper Jones hit .337 with 29 homers and 102 RBI
• Francoeur hit .293 with 19 homers and 105 RBI.
• Diaz didn’t qualify for the batting title, but did hit .338 in 358 at-bats (502 are needed to be eligible at season’s end). Diaz also hit 12 homers and 21 doubles. His platoon-mate Willie Harris hit .270 with 2 homers, but did have 20 doubles and eight triples.
• In his time here, Tex his .317 with 17 homers and 56 RBI in just 208 at-bats. Ridiculous numbers from a guy who was here for just two months and is hitting in a neutral park for half the time.

This season’s been, well, take a look:

•  McCann has hit .290 with 17 homers, 50 RBI and 25 doubles, increase from last season.
• Kelly Johnson has hit .273 with eight homers, 22 doubles, two triples and 37 RBI. An increase in doubles numbers, so a plus.
• Chipper has hit .375 with 18 homers, one triple and 14 doubles. His slugging is down from what he’s used to, but still up there. He’s leading the majors with a 1.100 OPS (On base % plus slugging), obviously a plus.
• Escobar has hit .286 with 12 doubles, six homers and 35 RBI. A down, but understandable for someone in their first full major league season.
• Tex has hit .272 with 17 homers, 21 doubles and 67 RBI, very good numbers, but Tex figures to step it up in the second half of the season, when he is typically at his best.
• Gregor Blanco has been a nice surprise, he is hitting just .266, but has a .368 on base percentage and has shown good patience at the plate and leads the team in in-field hits and stolen bases, perfect for a lead off hitter.
• Now for the disappointments: Francoeur was tabbed by many to have a breakout season…unfortunately he went the other way. Frenchy is hitting .234 and getting close to the Andruw line. He is also getting on base at a clip of just .286, lower than most guys’ averages. He does have 19 doubles and nine home runs and the Braves are desperately hoping that three days in the minors will be enough for him to turn things around.
• There’s a bunch of other guys that have taken over in injury situations, but not many have really made an impact.
• Omar Infante has hit .282 while playing all over the field, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch or catch if we have another 17 inning game. He is our third catcher with Diaz out, btw.
• Brandon Jones hit .278 while he was up here, pretty strong for a guy that was getting knocked for not being aggressive enough last season.
• Ruben Gotay (.208), Greg Norton (.206) and Corky Miller (.093) have obviously not been the answer at their positions. Gotay and Norton are great off the bench, both have had solid pinch hits with Norton getting several clutch hits in close and late situations. To be honest, I would have much rather had Brayan Pena behind the plate than Miller if not for Miller’s stellar defense.

On the pitching side, we were on the right track last season when we finished third in the league in ERA. But the addition of Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo and a different Jojo Reyes have shown us that while Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz may have been the dominant three in the ’90s, the three J’s are the future of our rotation now along with Hudson.

•  Last season we had 10 guys make starts, only John Smoltz (3.11) and Tim Hudson (3.33) had sub-4.00 ERAs.
• Chuck James went 11-10 with a 4.24 ERA in 30 starts
• Buddy Carlyle went 8-7 with a 5.21 ERA in 20 starts (but is thriving in his current long-reliever role).
• Kyle Davies went 4-8 with a 5.76 in 17 starts and did have some bright spots, but was ultimately traded for about 7.7 innings of Octavio Dotel.
• With the exception of Jeff Bennett late in the season, no one else that started a game had a sub 6.00 ERA.

This year is different, what started as a promising year filled with plenty of pitching depth has seen us put that depth to the test with several injuries, that’s NOT counting Mike Hampton, whom everyone and their best friend expected to be hurt (no offense Mike, it’s just that it is what it is).

•  Huddy is 9-7 with a 3.16 ERA but the Braves have scored two or less runs in his last four road starts against NL teams (never mind the AL, we might as well just ignore his stats against them since they’ve been putrid since joining the Braves).
• Jurrjens is 9-4 with a 3.00 ERA, has been the co-ace of this staff all year long and deserved a spot on the NL All-Star Roster.
• Jojo Reyes is 3-7 with a 4.40 ERA, but has lost twice 1-0. So really, he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA, but if you take out his first five starts (that’s when he settled in) and count just his last eight, he’s 1-5 with a 3.67 ERA, they just can’t score runs for him. Repeat: He Lost 1-0 TWICE, both times on the road.
• Jorge Campillo has been a great story. In 24 games, the righty is 3-4 with a 3.06 ERA. Again, just not getting any run support, he gets an average of 3.2 runs per game in the games he’s started, pathetic by the offense.

This season more than any other, has seen a cause for concern and panic. As I stated in an earlier article, the Braves have had 14 players with 20 different DL stings this season. Not surprisingly this has tested our Major League depth as well as the guys that are supposed to be ready to come play in the majors. This team may just be too banged up to compete. John Smoltz, a veteran presence on the field, has been sidelined.

Tom Glavine is the same, but is expected back after the All-Star break. Mike Hampton says he’s coming back after the All-Star break, but we won’t believe it until we see it. Hampton by the way is pitching tonight for the M-Braves down in Jacksonville, we’ll have an update as soon as we get a story. Update: Hampton went 5 innings, 6 H, 2 R, 4 Ks, 0 BB and most importantly 0 injuries, he also got one hit at the plate. Who knows, maybe Hampton could provide us with the bat we need…

But we’ll see. To me the team is still an enigma, and if they add a bat like the stats suggest, PLUS get back a healthy Glavine, plus get back a healthy Diaz that is closer to his 2007 form than his current form, plus I dunno…it seems there’s so many things that the Braves could do better.

Prediction: 81-81, 3rd NL East, at this point we’re no better than a .500 team and maybe worse.

-Akshay

Unlike their usual selves, they got off to a decent start and did not dig the same huge hole they have over several of the past fifteen years (2003 was their last World Series appearance and their last playoff appearance before 2007). They’ve done it for the most part with what has been one guys in their rotation and a bunch of pitchers just flat out do well against the rest of the NL East. The Phillies are 8-1 against the Braves to this point, 3-3 against Washington, 3-3 against Florida and 3-5 against the Mets (as of  7.06.08, morning). How they continue to dominate the Braves and destroy the Braves, I won’t know. It just seems like the matchups that look to go in our favor go in theirs and the matchups that go in their favor are blowouts.

That said, the Phillies are a team that know how good they are but also know their shortcomings. They have one of the best offenses in the league with Jimmy Rollis, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard at the top and guys like Cole Hamels, J.C. Romero and a new Brad Lidge on the pitching staff. They have been making their noise by getting a lead to their bullpen and hoping they can keep it. Which, the bullpen has done a spectacular job of.

After 86 games played, Philly has led the National League in relievers’ ERA (2.74), had 22 saves, pitched the least amount of bullpen innings (250.0, which is understandable for a team that does not have an overworked bullpen) and been second to the Braves in batting average against at .235.

Offensively, they are second in the league in runs scored, but ranked 10 in average (.257)…hmm…how does one figure that?  With runners on at all, they Phils step it up to .279, tied with Pittsburgh for the league lead. With runners in scoring position, the Phillies are hitting .272, third best in the league.

The Phillies pitching staff overall is ranked 3 in ERA (3.89), but their starters feature a 4.44 ERA, obviously not the best.

But with Philly, when they get their hits, they make them count. They are second in the league in slugging percent, meaning they get a lot of extra base hits, and obviously home runs in their park. But that’s not all, their OPS is second in the league and their On-base percentage is fourth.

Now the Phillies need what most other teams need, another solid starting pitcher. They dont know how long Adam Eaton will hold up, and the same with Jamie Moyer. Cole Hamels is a stud, but what about Kyle Kendrick and Brett Myers? Will Myers become the dominant start they think he’ll be, or will he regress into a double AA quality pitcher. That said, they are in the market for C. C. Sabathia and look to make some noise in that way.

Anyway, There’s not much more to say about the Phillies other than they have owned us the last two seasons and hopefully will slow down a little against us in the second half. They are easily a 90 win team and I think they will be the team tied with Florida for the lead at the end of the season.

Prediction: 90-72, Tied 1st

- Akshay

Anyway, back to the real article: The Marlins, boy they were a surprise coming out of the gates and still are. But to be honest, anyone truly surprised by this just hasn’t taken a look at the recent past. The Marlins have a unique formula for winning games, getting to the playoffs and winning championships. Their owner and general manager don’t go for it every year as much as their fans would like to believe. After their first championship in 1997, they got rid of guys like Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Luis Castillo among hitters and Techie Kevin Brown, Rob Nen and Al Leiter among pitchers to bring in younger talent. Later in 1998 they would resume their firesale to bring in guys like…well, just take a look at this, their 2003 Championship roster:

• C – Ivan Rodriguez
• 1B – Derek Lee
• 2B – Luis Castillo
• 3B – Mike Lowell
• SS – Alex Gonzalez
• LF – Todd Hollandsworth
• CF – Juan Pierre
• RF – Juan Encarnacion
• BN – Miguel Cabrera
• BN – Mike Redmond
• SP – Carl Pavano (Healthy)
• SP – Brad Penny
• SP – Mark Redman (when he was good)
• SP – Dontrelle Willis
• SP – Josh Becket (worst starter on that staff…seriously)
• CL – Braden Looper, not the best but still good at that time.

Imagine what their team would be and how many games they would have won in the last five years had they kept those guys together. At that time only Pudge was over 30, but he’s still playing pretty decently. He’s only seen a decline this year. All of the rest of those guys are name guys, there aren’t any players on that team that would make you think, huh? who? Maybe back then, and obviously hindsight is 20/20, but still, there’s something special about a group of no-name players winning a world series.

In that regard, I initially predicted them to win one in 2009 (every six years), but the way this team’s going right now I would not be surprised to see them do it a year early. They have the talent, their offense is clicking and they are expecting some of their best pitchers back (just like the Braves, except the Marlins are actually hitting).

These are some of the highlights of their current roster and how they got the players:

• Dan Uggla - .289, 23 homer, 58 RBIs and .620 slugging (!!). Rule 5 draft pick from Arizona when they could not find room for him on the roster
• Jorge Cantu - .273, 14 homers,  struck out just 66 times in 330 at-bats. This guy was released by the Reds in December and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins and is now an everyday player.
• Hanley Ramirez - .298, 20 home runs, 41 RBI and 72 runs scored. Came over in the Josh Beckett trade from the Red Sox and just signed the largest contract in Marlins history.
• Their outfield is pretty decent too with guys like Luis Gonzalez (who was supposed to be washed up and done), Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida (who went to my high school – Wheeler, Go Wildcats!). Not only that, they have solid backups in Alfredo Amezaga, Wes Helms and Josh Willingham
• With the exception of Mark Hendrickson, all of their starters are 25 and under. Scott Olsen got serious this year and and has a 3.47 ERA in 106.1 innings, Ricky Nolasco is 9-4 with a 3.94 ERA and they are still expecting Josh Johnson back later this season.
• In the Bullpen both Kevin Gregg and Renyel Pinto have sub-3.00 ERAs in 40+ innings for both (Gregg has pitched 39.2, close enough).

So, how do they stack up against other teams…pretty well. They are fifth in the NL in runs scored (407) and first in home runs (121). Their team batting average is pretty low (11, .253), but they step it up when there are runners on (.266). They are also fifth in OPS at .758.

Their pitching stats are surprisingly poor with a 4.54 team ERA (12), and 10 in batting average against at .262. Their bullpen, though, has been solid with a 3.71 ERA and a .241 BAA.

So after these numbers, where would the Marlins possibly need help? Well, the same place everyone else is looking, starting pitching. They may need one or two guys to get them down the stretch. Hendrickson has been slowing down after a great start and they may need someone to spell him. They also need some help in the bullpen to stabilize that end and maybe get a set up guy for the stretch. That said, they are a very young team and have tasted losing seasons in the past, the taste of those seasons has obviously left them with a great will to win and win soon. I think the Marlins’ best baseball is ahead of them and they should be able to pull out the division as long as they keep believing in themselves.

Current Record: 44-40

Predicted Final Record: 90-72, Tied-1st NL East

- Akshay

Anyway, let’s move on to talking about a much worse, more dysfunctional team: The New York Mets. What can I say about them, has there been a worse underachiever in the majors this year? In the top three in team payroll and still cannot even seem competitive. The reality of it is they’re lingering around and have the pieces in place to make a run if they can put it together mentally. New York is only 3.5 games behind the Phillies, one game under .500 and they get to play them this weekend. It’ll be good timing for them as long as the Phils have not severely beaten up the Braves by then.

According to Coolstandings, the Mets have an 11.3 % chance of making the playoffs as the division winner (believe it or not, their chance is less than the Braves’ 13.0 % chance at the 4 spot). They have even less of a chance of winning the wildcard with both Milwaukee and St. Louis sitting at better records than the best team in our division.

The problems with the Mets run pretty deep. Two seasons ago (2006), the Mets built up a HUGE lead by the All-Star break and coasted to the division title, the lead was so big that they were able to withstand a pretty good rally by the Phillies towards the end of that season, who at 85-77 were still 12 games out.

But last year something awesome happened, not necessarily a good awesome, but awesome. The Mets became the first team to blow a lead as much as 7.5 games in September. Yes, they blew a 7.5 game lead in just ONE MONTH! That’s not even 30 games but around 25 or 26 depending on the team.

The Mets really have little to no excuse. They have had less players and less important players injured than any of the other teams in the East. And by important players I mean players that have had a huge impact on the team when they have been in the lineup or on the field. And I’ve narrowed that list down to Ryan Church, Angel Pagan and Pedro Martinez in his first and third start. In fact their projected starter behind the plate didn’t even make it back to the starter’s role after he came off the DL, Ramon Castro is now backing up Brian Schneider.

The Mets’ mediocrity goes beyond injuries though, they’re just flat out not hitting well. They’re sixth in the league in runs (386), ninth in hits (736), 11 in home runs (75), 10 in average (.257) and 11 in OPS (.726). With the exception of runs scored, all of the other values are well  below the league averages.

Individually, they are not doing much better. Carlos Beltran has a similar average to his career, but his slugging percentage at .471 is 123 points below his 2006 percentage and about 54 points below his slugging average last year. In fact, his numbers this year are closer to his down year in 2005 than his good years of 2006 and 2007. His ESPN projected end of the year averages show 23 home runs and 107 RBIs. Those are pretty good numbers, but I’m sure Mets fans would love to see more home runs out of their star player than they are seeing now.

Other players that are struggling include David Wright, their other star. Wright is hitting 20 points below his career average at .288 and is slugging 20 points below that average as well at .508. Wright’s struggles are coming with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position (RISP), Wright is hitting .273 and .267 with RISP and 2 outs. Pretty low for a guy that’s supposed to be clutch. Jose Reyes is their only player doing better than his career averages. He is hitting .291 and slugging .471, both higher than his career averages. Reyes, though, just does not have the same stolen base numbers that he did in the past and is outwardly having trouble getting along with new manager Jerry Manuel.

Where would they be if Carlos Delgado would hit anything though? Delgado is hitting .236, about 50 points lower than his career and .432 slugging, about 100 points lower than his average. Delgado has similar halfway stats to his career stats, but was really struggling at the beginning of the season in pressure situations. He drew several boos and has only recently started to come out of his slump at the plate.

The Mets are equally average in the pitching department. They are eighth in ERA (4.17), 12 in walks (309) and 5 in batting average against (.255). Of course, much of their success is because of new acquisition Johan Santana. Of qualifying pitchers, only Santana (6) and John Maine (T-19) are in the top 20 and no more in the top 40, though Oliver Perez is 41 with a 4.98 ERA. Compare that to the Phillies who have four starters in the top 40.

Santana is 7-7 with a 3.01 ERA and 103 strikeouts. Santana came over from the Twins in the off-season and signed a 6 year $150 million contract. Of course, for a pitcher, that’s pretty ridiculous money. The Mets haven’t exactly won all of his starts, in fact they are 4-6 in his last 10 and are 9-8 in his starts this year overall, not worth the $16 million he’s making this year.

So what do the Mets have to do to get better? Simple, find a source of motivation, increase their club chemistry and band together to try and save the job of their general manager and (maybe) manager if they decide to keep him. They have too many players who speak out negatively. Billy Wagner really takes it upon himself to call out other players in a passive aggressive way and there just isn’t the same clubhouse chemistry there was two seasons ago when they won 97 games.

As of right now, the Mets are 41-42 in 83 games and are probably going to end up with a similar record at the end of the season as they do now. Without a change in attitude and chemistry, the Mets will not do much better than they are doing now.

Prediction: 80-82, 4 NL East

-Akshay

Since that time, former manager and hall-of-famer Frank Robinson retired and Manny Acta took over. Guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge and Cristian Guzman have been the go-to guys on that team. Not saying much? Seriously, those are probably their best hitters. This season, Zimmerman leads the team with eight home runs, Milledge leads the team with just 32 RBIs and Guzman leads the team with a .314 (respectable) average and 48 runs scored at the top of the order.

To see how they fare against other teams, you pretty much have to scroll all the way down to the bottom of the NL in the stats page to find them. They rank dead last in:

• Runs scored (305, Braves are seventh with 375).
• Hits (675, Braves are third with 769).
• Total bases (1014, Braves are sixth with 1193).
• RBI (285, Braves are sixth at 359).
• Batting Average (.239, Braves are third at .270).
• OPS (.673, Braves are fourth at .765).

Obviously, that’s the result of not winning a lot of games and not getting any production out of guys they would have thought were guys that would give them a lot. Austin Kearns (.187, 42 games) and Felipe Lopez (.242, .318 OBP, 72 games) are hitting well below their averages in Cincinnati and has been the status quo for what the Nats are going through. Guzman is, in fact, the only guy with respectable stats on the entire offense. He is hitting .314 with a .776 OPS and 24 doubles in 82 games.

Sadly, the pitching stats do not get much better with this team. They rank 14 in ERA (4.55, Braves are tops with a 3.69 team ERA), 11 in the NL in walks (308, Braves are ninth with 287) and 14 in batting average against (.288, Braves are again tops with a .246).

So what will the Nats have to do to get better? This team looks so similar to our teams of the ‘80s that there are no quick fixes. The fans and the players will have to ride it out until they can get some solid young talent in, enough to fill up their minor league system and who knows, maybe one year it will just click and send them to the top of the division.

This year, there’s probably little to no chance of them making a run. The Nats currently sit at 33-51. They have shown little to no efforts to get better and are not getting healthier. Chad Cordero was placed on the disabled list today and was never fully healthy this season. Because of this, I doubt the Nats will win that many more games than they won in the first half.

Prediction: 63 – 99, 5 in NL East.

- Akshay

NL West: Looking at the standings, there’s one thing that really surprised me. The two teams that played a 163^rd game last season are one and two wins ahead of the worst record in the majors (owned by the Mariners). Those teams are San Diego and Colorado respectively. San Diego has scored the fewest runs in the majors, understandable when they have absolutely no consistency in their lineup (other than Adrian Gonzalez who would be the fifth or sixth best hitter on the Braves by comparison), they have no power (12^th in the NL in home runs, which is understandable considering they play in Petco, but surprising because they have less homers on the road than at home). Moving on up, Colorado is just struggling because of growing pains from their young pitchers. Other than Aaron Cook (7-3, 2.82) none of their other starters has a sub-4.00 ERA. The third place team in the division, San Francisco, is a team that some thought could be the worst offensive team in the history of the majors before the season started. They’ve done alright considering they’re just now coming off the Barry Bonds era and pretty much rebuilding from the ground up. As far as their offense, the only team in the majors that has scored less runs than the Giants are the Padres in the NL and the Royals in the AL. Arizona is a team that everyone expected to do well at the beginning of the season and they have. They are probably the best team in the NL and deservedly so, their young offense is getting better and their pitching staff has gotten better with the addition of Dan Haren from Oakland. The Dodgers are the enigma of the group, they are very streaky, but are also the victim of bad front office movies. Joe Torre being the new manager, in my opinion, wasn’t very different from Grady Little. I think the name and ticket sales they would bring in with a big name manager were the clincher for Torre in this case.

NL Central: Boy, this division really turned upside down after the Cubs. Last season, the Cardinals finished seven games out of first place in the Central and even worse in the wildcard race. The Astros finished 14 games behind the leader in the same division. This season both teams have gone through somewhat of a rebirth to the early part of the decade when they regularly battled for the central crown. This season both teams are battling with the Cubs for the lead in the division. St. Louis is one game out and Houston is two games behind the Cubs. All three teams have the offense, pitching or both to carry them to the divisional crown and I fully expect this race to go down to the end of the season.

NL East: I think we can call this a four team race down to the wire. We just outlined the Marlins a couple of days ago and we all know about the Braves. The Phillies will be in contention as long as they play at Citizens Bank Park and the Mets….well, yeah they’ll stick around, I guess. Honestly, I really don’t see them winning consistently outside of Santana’s starts. The Mets are 7-3 when Santana starts and 17-23 when everyone else does, kind of tells you something about their pitching staff. For the division though, I’m sticking with my preseason pick of the Braves. Here’s why: They are a third of the season without some of their major players (Smoltz, Soriano, Gonzalez, Moylan among others) and are only 2.5 games out of the lead. Soriano and Smoltz are expected back soon, meaning Cox won’t have to worry as much about going to the bullpen (which is still the third best in the NL) as much as he would have earlier in the season. The Braves bullpen has a 3.51 ERA, sixth in the league and a .229 batting average against, third in the league.

Predictions:

NL West: Arizona
NL Central: Chicago
NL East: Atlanta

Wildcard: Philadelphia

Florida Marlins: Can they hold it together? Nobody expected to see these guys in first this far into the season.  I think even the Marlins are surprised.  That hasn’t kept them from acting like they belong in first.  Anchored offensively by Uggla, Hermida, and Ramirez, the Marlins have come out to score this year – currently ranked 10th in the league with runs scored.  The rotation has been solid as well – only six different pitchers have started games this year.  The Marlins recently picked up Jacque Jones to shore up their outfield after he was released by the Tigers.  But if the Tigers can afford to release him, will he help?  The biggest question remains: can the Marlins keep it up?

Atlanta Braves: Sure, the Braves can win at home, but they have to be able to win on the road or nothing will come of it. The Braves have a rock solid offense led by the mighty Chipper Jones, but they’ve had some injury issues on their pitching staff – Smoltz is moving to the bullpen, Rafael Soriano has spent significant time on the DL, but they’ll get those two plus Mike Gonzalez back from the DL here soon. The question – will they trade for another starter? Not if Jorge Campillo can keep up his Greg Maddux impression (and get rid of some pesky blisters).

Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies are shadowing the Braves as they both stalk the Marlins.  Their offense has been good but hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for more than a game or two at a time, and past Cole Hamels their other starters have ERAs at or above 4.37.  Brett Myers has dropped his last four starts, and Adam Eaton is still winless.  If the Phillies’ starters can get their acts together, this is a much more dangerous team – already they’re fourth in the NL with 26 quality starts – but they have potential for much more.  On the other hand, their bullpen has been great – lowing the team ERA to a 5th best 3.98.  The Phillies could come together to be a very dangerous team.

New York Mets: The Mets’ manager Willie Randolph is under fire for his team’s poor play. And the Mets have had poor play as of late. They’re now in fourth place struggling to beat decent teams. The team is oft-injured. Ryan Church likes concussions, Moises Alou caught Mike Hampton syndrome, and Marlon Anderson pulled up lame. And that’s just the last series in Atlanta. Pedro comes back soon, but will he really help? Johan Santana hasn’t been the savior he was billed as, either. This team has got to start playing ball if they want to hang it at the top of the division.

Washington Nationals:  The Nationals are just chilling out in the NL East basement, 7.5 games out of first with a .420 winning percentage.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NL, ranking third to last in runs scored, second to last in OBP and OPS, and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Their pitching staff is better, but not by much, ranked 12/16 in ERA and 13/16 in Batting Average Against.  This is likely something we see continued for most of the season.

What do you see happening?  Can the Marlins hold it together?  Will the Braves start winning on the road?  Can the Phillies fire on all cylinders?  Are the Mets and Willie Randolph doomed to oblivion?

In the AL East we have the mighty Red Sox, the only team with a better (by 1 win) home win-loss record than our own Braves. The surprising Rays and Orioles check in behind the Sox. The Rays have never had this good of a record this late in the season and it’s been a long time since the Orioles have been here. The Orioles have scored less runs than they’ve allowed, giving them the title of “this year’s 2007 Diamondbacks.” While they don’t have the same kind of ridiculous young talent that the D’backs had last year, they do have their fair share. Adam Jones, the stud center field prospect from Seattle, is hitting .260, a respectable average for a rookie. Luke Scott, from Houston in the Tejada trade, is hitting .271 with four homers and Nick Markakis, of Woodstock, is hitting .264 with eight homers. The Orioles, who traded ace Erik Bedard to Seattle in the offseason, still have a good crop of young pitchers. Second year pitcher Brian Burress leads the team in ERA with 3.47, a run and a half better than last season. Daniel Cabrera is 5-1 and Jeremy Guthrie also has a sub-4.00 ERA for the starters. George Sherrill, who also came over from Seattle, has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles with 17 saves in 19 opportunities.

Moving on, in the AL Central may be the most even division. The Detroit Tigers (ESPN’s preseason darling) is sitting in last place, six games out of the lead. They probably could have used Jurrjens in their rotation this year. Overall, they are the only division where just one team has a winning record. The White Sox have played above expectations all year. Jermaine Dye and A.J. Pierzynski are both hitting over .300 and Carlos Quentin leads the AL with 12 homers. On the pitching side, both John Danks and Gavin Floyd (who the Phillies traded for nothing when they got Freddy Garcia) have a sub-3.00 ERA, Jose Contreras is back to form with a 5-3 record and Javier Vazquez is tied for the AL lead in strikeouts.

Finally, the AL West may be the one division where the best team is not necessarily leading the division. To this point, the Oakland A’s have scored nearly as many runs as the Angels (3.0 games ahead), but have given up 31 less runs. With Rich Harden coming off the DL recently, the rotation should get a boost assuming no other injuries hit the team. The A’s have average at best hitting, with their best everyday hitter (Bobby Crosby) sitting at .266. As a team they are fourth in the AL in runs scored, but 11^th in hitting overall. The disparity is easy to spot though; the A’s are hitting .282 with runners in scoring position (4^th in the AL). They are also winning games by getting ahead early and allowing the pitchers to take over. Oakland is second in team ERA (3.19) in the first six innings and their bullpen has a 3.25 ERA, also second in the league.

Here are my predictions for the rest of the season:

AL East: Boston Red Sox
AL Central: Cleveland Indians
AL West: LA Angels of Anaheim
AL Wildcard: Oakland Athletics

Stay tuned for the NL Review.

BravesBlast: With Jimmy Rollins on the DL until at least next Monday, how are the Phillies picking up the slack?

Erik: Eric Bruntlett gets the call at short now and forever until the Phils get Rollins back. After a miserable start he’s been good defensively, but the Phillies have no chance to replace Rollins’ offense at the position. One of the things that has Phillies’ fans excited early is that the team is playing well without Rollins. Basically they’ve been managing to win games paced by unbelievable hittting from Utley, who hit seven home runs in seven days, and Burrell, who set a team record by driving in 24 runs in April. The bullpen has also been other-worldly, far better than just about anyone had expected.

BravesBlast: The Phillies’ bullpen has been very successful this year – introduce us to the key pieces and tell us what your thoughts are.

Erik: Brad Lidge is the biggest story for the Phils, not allowing a run in his first 11 appearances for the Phils as he knocked down six saves. Coming into Wednesday night’s game, Lidge, JC Romero and Rudy Seanez had combined to allow one earned run in 31 1/3 innings. Seanez doesn’t see as many of the pressure situations that Lidge and Romero do, but the trio has been impressive.

Tom Gordon is another guy that Manuel feels comfortable going to with the game on the line. He got bombed for five runs in a third of an inning on opening day but has been lights out since. In his ten appearances after his first time out, Gordon threw to a 1.80 ERA with a 1.00 ratio and struck out 12 in ten innings.

Chad Durbin generally gets the call in long relief and he’s been very good as well, throwing to a 1.56 ERA coming into Wednesday night’s game. He leads the pen in innings pitched with 17.

Seanez, Ryan Madson and Clay Condrey make up the rest of the pen and most often fill out when the game is out of reach one way or another. I’m a little surprised we aren’t seeing more of Seanez given how effective he’s been early, but we’ll see if his role evolves. Madson has struggled early, but will likely find himself in a bigger role as the season progresses. Condrey will give the Phils innings until the next time they DFA him, but it probably won’t be pretty.

A big issue for the Phils pen is the lack of lefties. Romero is their only southpaw and it puts a lot of pressure on Manuel to keep the Phils’ left-handed starters (Hamels and Moyer) in the game, especially if the Phils’ opponent has big lefty sticks in their lineup. We saw that in a game last week when Hamels stayed in to throw 121 pitches against the Brewers and lefty Prince Fielder lit him up for his second home run in the eighth. The Phils will put another lefty in their pen before too long and it may be Steve Kline.

BravesBlast: Where are the spots in the lineup opposing pitchers can hope to get a break from the offense? And how good is your offense when you’re not hitting BP in the launching pad that is your home field?

Pretty much everyone except Utley, Burrell and Jayson Werth haven’t done much with the bat this month. Utley and Burrell have just been ridiculous. The lineup is weak at the bottom where you’ll often find Feliz, Ruiz and Bruntlett all in a row. Those three are all righties, too, so the bottom of the order is especially vulnerable to a good righty reliever. The Phils also pretty much can’t hit for Bruntlett cause if they do they have to move Feliz to short, and that’s not what you’re looking for.

In 2007 the Phillies scored more runs in their games away from home than any other team in the NL (if memory serves, the Mets and the Braves were both in the NL last year (could be mistaken, we could probably get someone to look that up if need be)). Primarily due to the extended loss of Rollins and the miserable start by Howard, the Phils’ offense is down across the board in 2008. It may be down all season, the Phils scored nearly 900 runs last year, but by the end I expect they will be among the league leaders in runs scored both overall and on the road if not at the top. Citizens Bank Park is a great place for hitters, but the Phillies’ hitters would be really good without it.

BravesBlast: Let’s Mets bash. Can they keep it up? How tight is the race going to be in the final months of the season, and who’s in on the chase?

Erik: Fraid so. On paper they’re the best team in the division. On the other hand, they were last year as well and that didn’t end up helping them much. The Mets certainly seem like they could implode at any time in some spectacular fashion, but even if they do I can’t see them not being in the picture down the stretch. I think the Phillies and Braves are going to be in striking distance when September rolls around, so it may come down to who plays the best at the end of the season.

The Fish have been fantastic in the early going, but even with all their impressive young talent they may be a couple of years away from being a legitimate contender for the division.

BravesBlast: One of my good friends (sadly a Phillies fan) told me the starting rotation scares him. Tell us who pitches behind Hamels and Myers, and whether or not they’re decent and who we can tee off against.

Brett Myers got the start for the Phils on opening day, but Cole Hamels is without a doubt the Phillies’ ace. The Phils are counting on Myers and Hamels to carry the load when it comes to the rotation, cause they’ve got a lot of question marks behind them.

Sadly for the Phils, only one of the duo is getting it done so far. Myers has struggled to find his velocity, often working in the mid to upper 80’s, and been banged around a bit. After six starts his ERA is over five and he’s allowed ten home runs over his last 32 innings.

Myers and Hamels are the guys the Phils are really counting on, cause there are some big potential problems looming behind. Jamie Moyer is amazing. He’s 45 years old and a treat to watch when he’s on. He has come up with huge performances in big games for the Phils, but he also gets bombed every so often. Even when he doesn’t he can’t go real deep into games, so it puts a burden on the pen.

Adam Eaton pitches behind Moyer, looking to rebound from a season where he threw to a 6.29 ERA in 30 starts for the Phils. He started off the season strong, throwing to a 4.12 ERA over his first three starts. He’s struggled more his last two times out — in both games he seemed to be cruising but then got lit up quickly in a big inning that chased him out of the game.

Kyle Kendrick rounds out the rotation. The 23-year-old is coming off of a fantastic surprise of a rookie season in which he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts. Kendrick is a guy that just about everyone expects is going to slump this year. His numbers overall with the Phils last season were better than his minor league numbers, he doesn’t strike anyone out and lefties kill him. He’s been hit pretty hard this year and sports a 5.13 ERA after his first five times out.

Overall I’d say there’s good reasons for concern when it comes to the Phillies rotation. At least one of the guys behind Hamels and Myers won’t make it through the season, but Myers is the real problem for the Phils if he doesn’t start to pitch better. The Phillies are counting on Myers to stabalize things, and if he can’t get his problems figured out the Phils don’t have anyone in the organization with the talent to replace him. It will be interesting to see where the Phillies go when they have to make a move at the back end of their rotation. Giving Chad Durbin some starts may be the first choice. Kris Benson is rehabbing, I don’t think there are many people who think there’s any chance he can help the team before June, if that soon. The Phils do have some touted (at least by the Phils) arms in the minor leagues — if they have to go there my guess is that Josh Outman might get the first call.

Thanks once again to Erik from PhilliesFlow for his insight and willingness to share his opinions. I answered some questions from him about the Braves – don’t lose the opportunity to go check out his blog.

#1 – The Atlanta Braves
The Braves (3-3) have come out of the gate with their offense firing on most cylinders. The scary part of that is they’re still 2nd in the NL in average (.292), runs (40), slugging percentage (.470) and OPS (.822). They’ve already shown their ability to battle back and put games into extra innings, as well as outscore the Mets 14-6 in the last two games. Their pitching staff is not working as it should yet – the bullpen is recovering from early jitters and Mike Hampton is back on the DL (Surprise? Hardly). But solid starts from both John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens have put the Braves in a good spot to be – at the top of the division early.

#2 – Florida Marlins
How are these guys able to be 3-3? They’ve taken it to the Pirates. I don’t think they’ll be in the #2 position long, so don’t get used to it. They’ll begin climbing the ranks downward.

#3 – New York Mets
These guys would be in the two position were it not for the Marlins’ strong start. Santana is looking good, Pedro is hurt and their offense wasn’t clicking during their last series against the Braves. The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been stellar so far either. But they’re the Mets, and they’ll surely rebound strong. Can’t discount them.

#4 – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies may be in the cellar right now as far as standings go, but they’re not completely dead yet. However, they’ve had issues with the starting pitching and relief corps. And their highly touted offense has had a slow start – scoring only 27 runs so far – that’s fourth in the NL East.

#5 – Washington Nationals
The Nationals have issues. They just lost a series – the entire series – to Cardinals. The Nationals did eek out a win against the Braves to start the season (lucky break on that Moylan pitch), but they’re going to need to start winning the easy games against the teams that are worse than them. Thus, they’re in the basement, at least for the first week of the power rankings.

Did I mis-rank the teams? Any of the 12 Marlins fans that are young enough to own computers want to whine about them not being at the top? Leave us a comment and we’ll hash it out.

• Moises Alou will miss the beginning of the season with hernia surgery – out 4-6 weeks
• Marlon Anderson and Ryan Church banged each other up when they collided in a game earlier this week – Church sustained a concussion and Anderson apparently bruised his chest and banged up his jaw.
• Carlos Delgado, who had elbow and wrist surgery a couple years ago, and ended last season with a broken hand and some knee/hip issues apparently is having hip issues again.  And by apparently having hip issues, we mean he got sent back to NY for an MRI.
• Carlos Beltran is having knee trouble – may be just a long recovery from his knee surgery 3 1/2 months ago, but it’s not encouraging news.
• Pedro apparently had a toe issue, but he pitched a simulated game yesterday, though his pitches lacked movement.

So it’s not September, and the Mets are already showing signs of collapse.  They better hope that these injuries heal up or all the Santana pitching in the world will do little good.  They lose a lot of offensive firepower with Delgado, Alou, and Beltran nursing little bumps and bruises here – and the real hard playing hasn’t even started yet.

Mets fans hate to hear it – but if their aging veterans can’t escape their injured pasts, the Mets may not be a legitimate contestant in the NL East this year.  David Wright can only do so much by himself.

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks won the division by the skin of their teeth last year (though they held the best record in the NL), and we can expect them to make a run for it once again this year. They have some great talent on the team in Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew. They also have enthusiasm (Eric Byrnes), veteran leadership (Randy Johnson), and the ace of the rotation (Brandon Webb). Oh, and they added Oakland’s Dan Haren. They’ll be a very dangerous team, once again expected to finish first in the division.

Colorado Rockies - The Rockies came out last year with a confidence in themselves and took it all the way through the playoffs. They possess one of the strongest offenses in all of the National League – if not the strongest. They play a mile high, which helps a bit, but they’re just good. Their pitching staff was top 10 across the league in ERA, Batting Average Against, OPS, Saves, WHIP, and Quality Starts, so they’re not shabby and have outdone the Coors’ pitching staffs of yesteryear. This year expect to see more of their potent offense playing really good baseball. Holliday, Tulowitzki, and Helton will be sure of that. Their pitching staff led by Jeff Francis, and filled out by Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Hirsch/Morales will probably produce about the same results as last year, barring any unfortunate injuries. I think the Rockies will compete for second with the Padres in this division in 2008.

San Diego Padres – The Padres barely missed out on the playoffs last year, but we’ll see where they land this year. Once again led by a very strong pitching staff consisting of ace Jake Peavy and Chris Young, veteran magician Greg Maddux, and filled out by Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. Their offense features Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez – and there’s nothing super special about it. But that’s OK – their pitching staff is easily arguably the best in the NL. These guys are the opposite of the Rockies – if they struggle, it’ll be their offense.

Part II will come soon, so check back for the Dodgers (who have made all kinds of changes) and the Bonds-less Giants. Til then, enjoy the spring training ball.

Now I know this is only the Grapefruit League – wins and losses don’t count, and it’s for practice purposes. But someone needs to let Johan know that even though the record doesn’t count, he shouldn’t run around giving up hits and home runs. I mean, the guy could have only pitched to six batters and gotten back to signing autographs and being worshipped.

If it’s not bad enough that Santana got tagged for a big home run, he gave it up to none other than Juan Gonzalez, who hasn’t even played the last two years and had only one at-bat in 2004.  It’s not like he gave it up to Albert Pujols, people.

Total Stats for Santana: 2 innings pitched, 10 batters faced, 4 hits, 1 home run, 3 earned runs, 1 strikeout, 1 induced ground out, and 4 fly outs. ERA: 13.50

Where’s your god now?

Preseason Team Awards

Best AL Team: Detroit Tigers
Best NL Team: New York Mets (I said it, but I’m not happy about it.)
Most Hyped Team: New York Mets
Worst AL Team: Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Worst NL Team: Florida Marlins (this was a no-brainer.  The state of Florida is apparently cursed.)
Best AL Division: The AL East beats out the Central for this title with the Blue Jays being the determining factor.
Best NL Division: The East is strong (and beats out the West) with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all looking for the division title.  We should see some great baseball out of this division all season long.
Worst AL Division:  The West is going to be ugly with Oakland, Seattle, and Texas.  Texas should be on the rise, but Oakland completely disassembled whatever they had last year in their fire sale.
Worst NL Division:  The NL Central has a couple teams that are decent (Chicago and Milwaukee), but Cincinnati, Houston, and Pittsburgh bring the division down to the worst in the NL.

This year is going to be fun to watch in several divisions – the AL East and Central promise to be intriguing, as do the NL East and West.  The Tigers and Indians are going to create some great story lines, and we’re all familiar with the NL East and the competition we’ll see there this year.

Preseason Individual Awards

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
NL MVP: Matt Holliday
AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia
NL Cy Young: Jake Peavy
AL Batting Title: Ichiro Suzuki
NL Batting Title: Matt Holliday
AL HR Title: Alex Rodriguez
NL HR Title: Ryan Howard

There we go – our projections for the individual awards in 2008.  No, we don’t think Johan Santana will win the NL Cy Young award this year – he’s a great pitcher, but I think Peavy will pull it out this year.  The others don’t have many surprises – Matt Holliday is a very solid hitter that is only helped by the fact that he plays in Colorado.

Lidge, the Phillies’ scheduled closer, had surgery on the same knee in October, when doctors removed scar tissue.  He was the Phillies’ biggest off-season acquisition, supposedly allowing Brett Myers to return to the starting rotation.

More as we hear it – but this could shake things up.  Without a legitimate closer (other than pulling Brett Myers from the rotation), the Phillies have even more pitching issues than they’d like to admit.  They may need every run that high-flying offense produces, because without Myers in the rotation, their starting pitching is mighty thin after Cole Hamels.

BravesBlast: With the addition of Johan Santana, the Mets are probably the team to beat this year in the NL East.  Where do you see the division breaking down after that?

PhilliesFlow.com: With the addition of Santana, I see the Mets as the front-runners in the NL East.  I still think all three teams are very close, but I would go Mets/Phils/Braves 1-2-3 at this point.

The separation between the Mets and the Phillies is very small.  The Mets did have a better off-season, but the Phillies won the division last year despite the fact that they gave 30 starts to a guy with a 6.29 ERA and with just about the worst offensive production from third base in the NL.  You would think those would be areas in which it would be easy to improve.  Given how close the Mets and Phillies are, I truly believe the Phils are better off in the role of underdog.  Santana is going to help the Mets a ton on the field, but there’s a lot of pressure that comes with the addition and the return to the role of clear front-runners as well.

And if you believe that the Braves have been overlooked, I agree.  Using the number of games that they won or by comparing their ‘07 and ‘06 run differentials, the Braves are the team in the NL East that improved the most in 2007.  Particularly worrisome about that from a Phillies’ fans perspective is that improvement all came despite down years from McCann and the now-departed Andruw Jones, before the addition of Glavine and without a full season of Teixeira.  Prior to the Santana acquisition the Braves had also had the best off-season of the three teams as well.

BravesBlast: What is the Phillies’ biggest weakness in 2008?

PhilliesFlow.com: Pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.

The Phils are looking fine at the top of the rotation with Hamels and Myers.  Behind that duo comes Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer and Adam Eaton.  The number of people who thought that Kendrick was going to take a spot in the rotation in 2007 and pitch as effectively as he did is very, very small if not zero.  Pitch effectively he did, though, going 10-4 in 20 starts with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.27 ratio.  In five seasons in the minor leagues he threw 544 innings (all but 81 of which were below Double-A) in which he posted a 4.28 ERA with a 1.39 ratio.

Moyer has been a workhorse for the Phils and is capable of coming up huge in big games.  But he turns 46 this year and last season he threw to a 5.01 ERA.

Eaton’s problems are well-documented.  A 6.29 ERA in 30 starts might not say it all, but it says most of it.  Eaton will  find himself in a battle to keep his job as fifth starter if he doesn’t turn things around early in ‘08, but the guys the Phils have in-house to challenge him, led by Chad Durbin, JD Durbin and Travis Blackley, don’t look real exciting.  Coming off of surgery, Kris Benson has also been added to the mix and I think he is going to get some chances with the Phils this year.  The last time he pitched in a game was September, 2006, though, so I don’t believe there’s much chance he’s going to pitch for the Phils in the early part of the season.

Right now the pen looks like it’s Lidge, Gordon, Romero and Madson with a lot of opportunities for relievers as spring training opens.  Chad Durbin is almost sure to win the fifth spot, but after that it’s pretty wide open  Regardless of who fills it out, the Phils look like they’re headed into 2008 with a pen that’s better than what they started ‘07 with but still weak.  Lidge and Romero are both capable of putting up fantastic years, but also capable of blowing up as well.  A weak bullpen isn’t good for the Phils who continue to yo-yo Myers back and forth between the rotation and pen, an issue further complicated by Myers’ desire to close and the team’s need for him to pitch in the starting rotation.  But Myers threw four more innings than JD Durbin last season — for a team with pitching this bad, putting Myers in the pen looks like a luxury they just can’t afford.

BravesBlast: What young player in the organization that we may not have heard of are you excited about?

PhilliesFlow.com: The list of young, exciting prospects for the Phils isn’t as long as one might hope.  The guy I think you’ll see come up this season and pitch some significant innings for the Phils is Josh Outman.  Outman is a 23-year-old lefty who has gone 28-14 with a 2.96 ERA in the Phils minor league system over the past three years.

Another guy who you’ve seen briefly already is lefty reliever Fabio Castro.  Matt Diaz may remember him well — Diaz hit a huge three-run bomb off of Castro in the top of the ninth in early September, 2006 to help give the Braves a 7-6 lead in perhaps the first real pressure opportunity given to Castro by the Phils.  Castro’s numbers in the majors and even in the minors aren’t mind-blowing, but he has the fantastic stuff to go along with his control problems and I think he could turn out to be very good.  He turned 23 last month and has a chance to win a job in the bullpen to start the season.

BravesBlast: Where do you see the Braves fitting into the 2008 picture?

PhilliesFlow.com: The Braves only finished five games back in the East last year and they’ve improved since then — I think if they can stay healthy they’ll be fighting for a playoff spot at the end of the season.  I see them getting the biggest boost in ‘08 from the addition of Glavine and the benefits of a full year of Teixeira.

Last year Atlanta scored four more runs than the Mets.  My guess would be that the Braves score more runs than the Mets again this year, but widen the gap a bit.  I still expect the Phils high-flying offense to continue to fly high.

The numbers that Yunel Escobar put up last season were simply outstanding.  Not to be forgotten, though, is that even if he were to put up another 326/385/451 line with the Braves at short this season, he still would be trailing Renteria’s ‘07 line of 332/390/470 in average, on-base percentage and slugging.  I don’t think that Escobar will put up the kind of numbers he did last year.  Even if he did, I think people have under-appreciated what Renteria did at the plate last year and the ‘08 Braves are going to miss Renteria’s ‘07 production.

In center field, Andruw was just miserable last season.  But he still hit more home runs (26) than Mark Kotsay has over the last three years combined (23).  Chipper also had a monster season in ‘07, arguably his best in eight years, and chances seem good he’ll be off that pace in ‘08.

Overall, I still think with more Teixeira, less Thorman, and a better year from McCann, the offense is better than last year when it was good.  But not hugely better.

The Braves’ rotation is clearly stronger than the Phils.  It’s very close between the Mets and Braves in my mind, I think it’s going to come down to who stays healthy.  Smoltz shows no sign of it yet, but you have to believe that he’s due to slow down sometime soon.  Glavine hasn’t been quite as bullet-proof, but he’s thrown at least 200 innings in ten of the last 12 years.  In the other two seasons he threw 183 1/3 and 198.  If you’re the Braves I think you have to be hoping that his 2007 was just an off-year and not the start of a sharp downtrend.  I think you have to be worried about Chuck James’ health, but if he is able to go there regularly there aren’t many better fourth starters in the league.  Pretty sure that if Mike Hampton is Plan A as your fifth starter what Plan B is going to prove to be important before long — I really thought the Jair Jurrjens addition was a good one and that he should help the Braves.  As a Phillies’ fan I’d definitely rather see Hampton.

The Atlanta bullpen was fantastic in 2007, throwing to a 3.54 ERA, which was the second best in the league after the Padres.  I think they are going to have a lot of trouble repeating that kind of success in the upcoming season.  Soriano is fantastic, but Peter Moylan’s season last year was just ridiculously good.  I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect that kind of production from him again and I think the depth behind Soriano is questionable if you’re hoping to get the same monster production from the relievers in ‘08.

Overall for the Braves I see the offense as better, the starting pitching as better and the pen as worse.  Put it all together and I think it adds up to a better team in ‘08 than they had in ‘07.  I think the Phillies and the Mets are both better as well.  I don’t see any NL East team touching 100 wins this season.  Whichever team does the best job of responding to injuries may be the one that winds up on top.

BravesBlast: Do the Phillies have the capability to bring a world series title to Philadelphia this year?

PhilliesFlow.com: Sure.  But they’re going to have to beat a team a lot better than them to do it.  There is no dominant team in the NL, but I think we can count on the fact that there will be at least three teams in the AL that you would pick on paper over whoever the NL sends to the World Series.  It’s kind of an unusual position for the Phils as they start the season — they are underdogs in their division, but if they don’t make the playoffs it will also be a disappointment.  That’s a little bit of a tricky position when you consider there may be three tough teams in the NL West and there’s a good chance two of them will be in the hunt with the second-place team in the NL East for the Wild Card.  After being swept by the Rockies last season, going deeper into the playoffs isn’t going to take much if the Phillies get there, but I think it’s a more realistic goal for the Phils than winning the World Series unless the add some more quality arms during the season.

Thanks once again to Erik Grissom of PhilliesFlow for his perspectives on the National League East in the upcoming 2008 season.

The Offense:  This is the same as before, so skip it if you read last time.  Still not impressed with the age we see from some of the players.  Not impressed with Ryan Church or Brian Schneider.  But they do have some heat down the core of the lineup.  Here’s what I wrote last time around.

The Mets have a strong backbone offensively consisting of Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, and Jose Reyes. Both powerful and efficient, they were second in the NL in batting average and fourth in runs scored in 2007. We won’t see any major changes going into 2008, save the loss of Lastings Milledge and the addition of Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Schneider and Church are average players – nothing that will seriously bolster the lineup. In fact, Schneider may be the weakest spot in this lineup, ranking 24th out of 29 catchers (with over 300 plate appearances) in batting average and home runs. The loss of Milledge won’t be evident next season, but may be in a few years. We’ll likely see similar offensive production from the Mets next year – not quite at the top of the heap, but more potent than the average lineup.

The Defense:  Same as before.  Not gonna rehash it.  Visit the initial writeup if you want.

Starting Pitching:  Johan Santana impacted this, sure.  They’re no longer relying on an aging Pedro Martinez (who had what, 5 starts last year?) as their #1 starter.  He’s now their number 2.  They swear up and down he’s the best #2 in the NL East (Yeah, right.  That’s like us saying Hampton is the best #4 in the NL East – aging guys returning from injuries shouldn’t be lauded as “the best” anything in any city).  Pedro is not a guarantee – last 20 season win was in the year 2002 with Boston.  Santana will be good as he makes a successful transition to the National League.  I think he’ll provide help to the Mets and solidify their rotation, because John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Orlando Hernandez aren’t quite the epitome of stability and consistency.  I’ll give their upgraded rotation a 4 out of 5.  No, Santana isn’t worth 12 stars all by himself, fanboys.

Relief Pitching: As from last time…

Billy Wagner anchors the bullpen as the closer, and he’s every bit as effective as he has been over the past few years – definitely one of the elite closers in all of baseball. That’s about where the bright spot ends for the Mets – they have a couple decent arms in Scott Schoeneweis (who makes $3.6 mil a year??) and the recently acquired Matt Wise, but there are overall ERA issues. The bullpen posted a 4.03 ERA in 2007 – worse than the 3.28 in 2006. This is another area that is not particularly strong for the Mets, but they have potential.

Coaching:  Randolph has to show he can recover from last year’s collapse.  That was ugly.

Recap:  So the Mets upgraded their rotation and it now includes Johan Santana.  They’ve got offensive tools, and now they have a good rotation to back it up.  Their bullpen needs a bit of work, but if the back end of their rotation holds together, that’ll help.  The Mets are a dangerous team this year – they worry me along with the Phillies.  But the addition of Santana, for me, doesn’t elevate the Mets above the Phils and the Braves.  Three team race going into September, guys.

For one, Mets fans seem upset that anyone would doubt their acquisition of Johan Santana as a one-man savior. Over at MetsMerized they’re making a big deal out of my statement that they may regret the money they’re paying Santana in the years to come. In the article by the ‘Ropolitans, they lay claim to the fact that the Mets are a big-market team in the vein of the Yankees. I’d only like to remind those already pre-crowning the Mets as ‘08 World Series Champions that much like the Beatles, the Yankees have shown us that money can’t buy ya love.

In Braves news, Chipper Jones showed up over on AJC.com yesterday and today and commented on one of David O’Brien’s blogs as “You Kno Who” and proceeded to go back and forth with the fans in quite a few exchanges. He addressed hunting, Smoltz’s future, his thoughts on the rotation, and answered my question about who he thinks should manage after Bobby with “nobody can even imagine not playing for Bobby. He’s a lifer.” I think it’s neat to watch a player drop by and spend time interacting with his fans. He’s sad to see Shea go – and he’s nowhere near ready to retire – says he enjoys beating the Mets too much.

So all you Mets fans dropping by, talk to me when you’ve got that World Series trophy in the Mets clubhouse. I’m not saying Santana doesn’t help – he makes your pitching staff a legitimate threat – but he only pitches once every five games. He’ll net you 4-5 more wins a season than that other starter spot you’re replacing.

It promises to be an interesting year – that’s for sure. I’m just unwilling to concede the division. And neither are the Braves.

That’s around $694,000 per start.

Or, if you choose to break it down by the game, he gets paid $141,350 a game, whether or not he plays.

And that’s assuming he doesn’t miss a start through 2013, when he’ll be in his mid-thirties.  Quite frankly, it’s blatantly obvious we all picked the wrong profession.  And I applaud Santana for milking the Mets for so much cash – I would have done the same thing – but really, $639,000 a start?  Is any pitcher worth that much for 6 years straight?

That’s a huge gamble by the Mets that I honestly believe will come back to haunt them in the coming years.  Elite pitchers with huge contracts and new teams haven’t gone well lately – remember Barry Zito?

Or what about Mike Hampton?

Hopefully it will only make the division easier as the Mets struggle for cash in the years to come.  Because if he IS what they’re making him out to be, then he’ll be striking out 300 a year and pulling 20 wins every year for the next 7 seasons.  But I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Let’s look at their stats from the last two seasons combined:

Tom Glavine – 28-15, 398.3 innings pitched, 4.14 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 220 strikeouts, 39 double plays induced, and 45 quality starts (68%).

Johan Santana – 34-19, 452.7 innings pitched, 3.05 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 480 strikeouts, 24 double plays induced, and 45 quality starts (64%).

Clearly Santana is more of a power pitcher than Glavine – it doesn’t take rocket science to figure that out. It’s also clear that Santana is a better pitcher right now than Glavine is – but we all knew that. My point is that though Santana is a good power pitcher, he’s not the one factor that will propel the Mets into the world series – and it’s not guaranteed he’ll make them the team to beat in the NL overall. I don’t think you can make that claim of a player that pitches once every five days.

Don’t get me wrong – I’m not happy with the prospect of the Braves facing Santana multiple times this year. I think he makes their rotation much better – not something to be taken lightly. I’ll have to revise my team and division analysis because of the trade, for sure.

I just don’t think he’s the one element that will take a team to the World Series. If he were, the Twins would have won several already.

One player does not a World Champion make – doesn’t matter if the player is Cy Young himself.