Mailbag: Hampton After 2008

Eric wrote our mailbag recently with the following question:

Since this is the last year of Hampton’s contract, what are the Braves going to do about him in the future? Are we going to let him go or re-sign him (whether its at a huge discount for lost time or whatever)?

Well Eric, I think this depends greatly on what happens this year with Hampton. Being that it’s just preseason, it’s really hard to speculate on something that will take into account primarily factors that have yet to occur. Let’s break down the options, though.

If Hampton heals from his early groin strain and is able to go on to a 12 win season, I think the Braves may re-sign him. I don’t think he’ll make anywhere near the $15 million he’s making this year, but that’d be a fine scenario in everyone’s mind. No, he won’t get another 8 year, $100+ million contract, and I don’t think he would say he deserves one. The Braves don’t sign people to those kind of contracts anyways - they just take advantage of other people who do. Maybe a $3-5 million contract if he shows he can stay healthy all season.  The odds for this aren’t good.  ESPN’s Jayson Stark wrote recently that the last pitcher 35 years or older who sat out for more than two years and came back to win more than 10 games was Schoolboy Rowe of the 1946 Phillies.  And Schoolboy was out for two years while fighting with the Navy in WWII.

The other option here is that the Braves decide they have enough young talent ready to go in Jair Jurrjens, Jo-Jo Reyes, and the other young guys to let Hampton go his own way, even if he has a successful year.

Another possibility here is that Hampton’s injuries linger all year - which is a possibility, no matter how much we don’t want to think about it being a reality. If Hampton goes on and off the DL all year long, I don’t think the Braves will have any interest in re-signing him come the off-season.

It’s not rocket science, I don’t think, Eric. If Hampton shows this year that he’s worth keeping around, the Braves may want him. If he can’t stay healthy, the Braves likely won’t re-sign him. From where I’m standing, I want Hampton healthy all season long and I hope he can come back to contribute some solid innings to the Braves.

In other Hampton news, he’ll pitch a simulated game tomorrow. This should put less strain on him than an outing in a real game. We’ll keep you updated on his condition.

Mailbag: Future Rotation Options?

Eric wrote the BravesBlast mailbag and asked a question about the future of the rotation.

Being that we have two old guys (Glavine and Smoltz), Mike Hampton who is heading into the last year of his contract and has serious health risks….What are the chances that our young arms like Jair, Chuck James, Morton, Reyes, etc will be able to carry our rotation of the future? Hoping that Tim Hudson will be around to hold down the 1 slot.

Great question, Eric. Our rotation may be dangerous this year and maybe even some of the guys last into next year, but your question is very valid - John Smoltz even said in November that “You can’t have a whole staff of old farts.”  So what will the rotation of the future look like?

Tim Hudson is signed at least through 2009 with an option for 2010, so we’ve got him here for another year or two, at least.  He likes it here and has been shown in the past to be open to contract extensions during the year, which is good.

Let’s break it down and look at the players and the consensus scouting reports.

Jair Jurrjens - Not only does Jurrjens come into spring training as one of the top prospects for this year’s rotation, he has promise for the future, too.  He throws strikes, keeps the ball low, and I’ve seen projections that he could be a future #2 starter.  He’s the Braves’ top pitching prospect according to multiple sources.

Jo-Jo Reyes - Jo-Jo doesn’t crack any top prospect lists, but that’s probably because he’s already played in the big leagues some last year.  It was a bit rocky, but Frank Wren remains confident in Reyes and his stuff - and scouting estimates are that his raw talent is on the same level as or slightly better than Jurrjens.  He needs a bit more development, but we’ll probably see him a bit in years to come.

Chuck James - James has been dealing with some rotator cuff issues that I think are somewhat related to his unorthodox delivery.  That said, James will likely benefit from another year making a run at the rotation (Cox seems to like him for the fifth rotation spot, if he’s healthy), as well as being around Tom Glavine - who has had very positive effects on young left-handers before.  If James has recurring health issues, there are some concerns, but he has potential to eat up innings in the future.

Julio Teheran - This kid won’t be in the big leagues for a while now, but he’s listed as the second best pitching prospect in the organization.  He has a mid-90s fastball, a high 70s late biting curve, and a nice changeup.  Three solid pitches, signed very recently as the top international pitching prospect, and a future so bright he’s probably wearing sunglasses all the time.  Oh, and he’s only 16. Read more »

Mailbag: On Scott Thorman

Lisa wrote the mailbag and asked:

I just read on mlb.com that Scott Thorman has to fight for his roster spot this year. Who could beat him for the position? I realize Teixeira would start but what about the back up?

There are a couple issues at play here, Lisa. First off, Thorman is out of options - this means that the Braves can’t send him straight to the minors. He would have to clear waivers first, where any team could claim him. But that’s only an issue if he can’t make the team straight out of spring training.

He’s certainly the leading candidate for the position, and the only candidate with big league experience. I think it’s a long-shot that he won’t take the backup role, personally, and I’ll explain why by mentioning some of the other alternatives.

Carlos Mendez - AAA Richmond, 33 years old. Played in 82 games in 2007, batted .278 with 6 HRs and 35 RBIs.

Graham Koonce - AAA Richmond, 32 years old. Played in 58 games in 2007, batted .224 with 10 HRs and 42 RBIs.

Barbaro Canizares - AAA Richmond, 27 years old. Played in 49 games in 2007, batting .344 with 3 HRs and 34 RBIs in 163 at-bats.

As you can see, none of these three guys are blowing pitchers away. You’ve also never heard of them, unless you’re from Richmond or in their extended family. That should tell you something - they’re not the biggest prospects in the Braves organization.

As our staff discussed the options today, we can’t see anyone but Thorman backing up Teixeira this year. There aren’t any better alternatives, Thorman has no options left and we doubt he’d clear waivers. Add in the fact that Thorman has some pretty decent big league experience, and we think he’s the man for the job. His qualifications beat out anyone else soundly.

Unless we want to re-sign the ageless Julio Franco.

Mailbag: Glavine’s Effectiveness

Kenny wrote:

Is Tom Glavine going to make a legit difference on the starting staff this year? I love Tommy, don’t get me wrong, but he looked very below average by seasons end with the Mets. I’m hoping he’s got a good year or two left, but whats everyone else’s opinion?

This is somewhat of a speculative answer, as I haven’t talked to Tommy personally and haven’t seen him pitch.  That said, I have heard Frank Wren address this question.  I’ll echo his thoughts and then add some of my own.

Read more »

Mailbag: Too Many Outfielders?

Cheyanne wrote the Mailbag yesterday with the following question:

With the Braves acquisition of Mark Kotsay what is the chance that Willie Harris or Brandon Jones is traded to get some more relief pitching?

Well first off, Cheyanne, thanks for asking a question - you get two entries into the Kelly Johnson autographed ball contest, as do all mailbag participants. We don’t think Willie Harris has much of a chance of being traded - he was released by the Braves after the Will Ohman trade (signed by the Nationals, by the way).

However, I think your question bears some teeth here. We have a ton of outfielders. With Francoeur in right and Kotsay in center, we have one open outfield spot to platoon with Diaz in left. Read more »

Mailbag: Another arm in the ‘pen?

Cameron wrote:

Why is there so much talk about shoring up the bullpen? To my recollection, the only turd in our pen last year was Wickman. I mean, sure, there were injuries and seemingly occasional lapses in talent, but I thought that the bullpen held up pretty well considering excess work due to the 3, 4, and 5 spots in the rotation.

Cameron, you’re right - the bullpen did pretty good last year all things considered.  That said, we’ve lost Ron Mahay, Dotel, and Ascanio - three of the arms that propelled the ‘pen to a decent finish down the stretch. Read more »

Mailbag: Filling the Hole in Center

Katie recently wrote Mailbag and asked:

Do you think that the Braves are going to sign another CF or use one they already have (Anderson, possibly?) Pitching wise, do you think they are going to get another starter, or bullpen help?

Well Katie, this really depends on who you ask.  The AJC reported months ago that the Braves were most likely to (and they quoted Wren) trade for a veteran to fill the gap for a year or two while the prospects matured.  Now, since then we’ve acquired Josh Anderson, and he may be viewed as the answer, at least at first glance. Read more »

Mailbag

With only a couple days left to enter to win the Brian McCann autographed baseball, there’s a lot of commenting on. Get your chance now - simply comment on one of the articles or pages with a valid email address. With each valid comment, you are entered once. Contest ends December 31!

Now, let’s dig into the mailbag. Katrina Taylor writes:

With the recent signing of Javy Lopez, given he meets or exceeds expectations in Spring Training, how much rest is Brian McCann expected to receive with an experienced backup catcher in the lineup?

Well Katrina, I have a few thoughts here. Read more »

Mailbag

Time for our first Mailbag question - to submit a question, please go to the “Submit Question” page using the navigation above.  For each question you submit, you’re entered to win that Brian McCann autographed baseball.

Melissa asked:

Ken Rosenthal over at MSN.Foxsports.com had this interesting comment about the Braves - “Meanwhile, the Yankees could trade Melky Cabrera even if they do not include him in a deal for Santana; several clubs are showing interest in Cabrera, including — presumably — the Braves, who tried to acquire him last off-season. ”

What do you think about the possibility of Cabrera getting signed?

First, thanks to Melissa for submitting a question - she’s entered into the drawing for a Brian McCann autographed baseball!

Secondly, let me ask you why the Braves would want Melky Cabrera? Read more »