The Impact Of Derrek Lee To Atlanta

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington breaks down the Braves acquisition of Chicago Cubs first baseman, Derrek Lee and the impact of this move on the NL East pennant race. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below.

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Braves To Move For Derrek Lee? Good Idea?

With every at-bat or play at first base, it’s quite apparent that Braves first baseman Troy Glaus is in a lot of pain and unable to play up to his full potential.  Gone are the days of May where he was hitting everything in sight, whether it was over the plate or not, and now, the best we can do is hope he doesn’t hit into a double play at the wrong time.  Rumors have begun circulating that the Braves are close to making a move for Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee.

In his day (he’s been around the league since 1997), Derrek Lee produced some solid numbers from the plate.  He’s had 9 20-HR seasons and is 5 shy of 1000 RBI in his career.  To date in 2010, he has 16 homers (4 of which came last weekend) and 56 RBI.  In the month of August, Lee is batting .306 and slugging .694 with 4 homers and 8 RBI.  By contrast, Glaus is hitting .208 and slugging .375 with two homers.

On the surface, it seems like a logical move.  It would give Glaus time to get healthier (although I doubt that can truly happen until the offseason) and would add a little more pop to the lineup.  The kicker however, is that Lee is injured as well.  His performance has been hampered by a bulging disc in his back, which, after receiving an injection for the pain, has him sidelined until today or tomorrow at least.

Lee would definitely be a rental, as he is a free agent at the end of the season, and would have to waive his no-trade cause, which he would likely do as Atlanta is contending for the NL East.  The rental issue doesn’t bother me however as he would serve as the next step in the bridge to getting Freddie Freeman into the majors (which I still maintain the  Braves don’t have to rush to do).  The question is, is sitting one injured first baseman for another injured first baseman the right thing to do.  With Troy’s performance as of late, I’d say it’s an option that we seriously need to consider.

Make The Minor Move: Bring Minor To The Majors

After Kris Medlen’s elbow injury last night resulting in him leaving the game, there’s cause for concern that he’s out for the year. We’ll find out more after an MRI today.

Now the question arises: what happens with Medlen’s rotation spot for the start that he’ll miss? Since he just won the fifth rotation spot from Kawakami, do we just let Kenshin back into the rotation? He has only pitched once since being taken out of the rotation – we don’t want to use him – and there are rumors that we might want him to accept a minor league assignment (though it might hurt our chances with signing future Japanese players). Or do we promote Mike Minor, the top pitching prospect at the AAA level.

Minor is having a great first full pro season – in 118 2/3 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, he’s posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 144K’s with only 44 BB’s. He’s part of the rotation of the future and has been starting regularly unlike Kawakami.

My plea to the Braves is thus: Please make Minor the fifth starter. Kawakami has had his chance and blew it – send him to AAA for some regular pitching and let Minor fill in on the back half of the rotation in the bigs.

Bring Minor to the Majors.

Evaluating the Braves’ Deadline Move

The Trade

-Braves get Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth, and cash considerations reportedly worth around $2 million .

-Royals get Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez, minor league LHP Tim Collins

When evaluating a deadline move such as this there are three main points to analyze.

1) Did the team improve its chances of getting to the postseason/making it further into the playoffs? If so, by how much?

2) What did the team give up in the deal and was it worth it?

3) What are the financial ramifications from this trade in the coming years? Or in other words, does the trade affect Atlanta’s payroll in 2011 and beyond?

Of course the first two questions are subjective and can be answered in any number of ways. The third question attempts to answer if the trade restricts the organization’s ability to go out and sign free agents/draft picks in off-seasons to come.

1) Let’s start with the obvious. Replacing Jesse Chavez with Kyle Farnsworth is clearly an upgrade for the Atlanta pen. Of course we all remember an 18 inning game back in 2005 where Farnsworth gave up a game tying homerun to Brad Ausmus in the ninth, but he is clearly the better pitcher. The main point of debate centers around whether or not Rick Ankiel improves the Atlanta outfield, specifically in centerfield where he will be playing primarily. Simply put, is he better than Melky Cabrera/Gregor Blanco?

In Cabrera’s case it is not even close. He was a pretty awful hitter when Wren traded for him, and he seems to have gotten worse. Coming off of a career best season, in which he posted a pretty average .752 OPS (most likely thanks to Yankee Stadium), Melky has been nothing short of horrific at the plate this season for Atlanta. Neither are anything special defensively. UZR does give Melky the slight edge in centerfield defense but still shows that he is below average at fielding the position. Overall, Fangraphs calculates that Melky has been slightly worse than a replacement level player this season.

An argument could be made for Blanco over Ankiel, but that argument would likely overvalue his mere 66 plate appearances at the major league level this season. While Ankiel gets on base less often, his impressive power numbers make him more valuable to a Braves’ lineup that lacks pop and is currently 10th in NL slugging. Blanco has been much better defensively this season than in years past, but for his career has a UZR of exactly zero in CF, meaning that he is just average. Also, Blanco may have better speed but isn’t much of a base stealer. Ultimately it comes down to needs, and the Braves need power. Ankiel gives them an increase in that category.

The Braves got better but very marginally so. Bullpen depth helps, but Farnsworth may only add about twenty innings over the course of the next two months. Likewise, Ankiel is only a marginal upgrade over Blanco. Neither he nor Cabrera can hit lefties very well either, something the Braves’ lineup has struggled with. Either way the trade helps to counter the Oswalt move, slightly improving the teams’ chance of winning the NL East.

2) No tears will be shed over losing Jesse Chavez. Blanco may be missed by some, but he was already twenty-six years old and never showed the ability to be a valuable everyday starter in the major leagues. LHP Tim Collins is barely pushing 5’ 7’’, but he has been a strikeout machine in his minor league career. Minor league relievers, however, typically do not carry much value and giving Collins up to make the current team better (even barely) makes sense.

3) The $2 million sent to the Braves along with Ankiel and Farnsworth more than covers their 2011 option buyouts for next season. Ankiel’s option is a mutual one worth $6 million and will almost certainly be declined considering the Braves will have to pay Nate McLouth more than that next season as well. Farnsworth comes with a club option worth $5.25 million next season, and it will be interesting to see what Frank Wren decides to do with it. Either way, the trade does not restrict the Braves financially for 2011 and beyond.

This trade in no ways jeopardizes the Braves’ future while making the club at least somewhat better. If Ankiel can play passable defense in CF, the team will clearly be better off. If not, he should at least break even with his offense upgrade, and Farnsworth makes our bullpen stronger. The bottom line is that Wren did a good job helping the club when the market did not present him with a whole lot of options.

Now, let the debate begin.

Oswalt To Phillies….Will The Braves Counter?

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington wonders how creative the Braves are willing to get in their efforts landing another big bat. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Final Countdown To The Trade Deadline

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington discusses the possibility of another pre-deadline deal for the Atlanta Braves. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Nate McLouth Optioned To Gwinnett

It appears that Nate McLouth’s days in Atlanta are done for the time being.  After going 1-for-15 in his five games back from the disabled list for a concussion sustained in a collision with Jason Heyward, the Braves front office has decided to give Nate more time in Gwinnett to figure things out.  They will likely continue to look for possible trade options for McLouth as the July 31st trade deadline approaches.

McLouth was held out of Sunday’s final game against the Marlins after failing to provide offensive production in the previous five games.  Large points of frustration with McLouth were a soft groundout with the bases loaded in late innings on Saturday and a game-ending double play in extra innings on Sunday.  Additionally, with runners in scoring position, Nate was 0-for-6 during the three game series with the Marlins.

Brent Clevlen has been activated from a rehab assignment and is expected to join the squad mid-game tonight.  Gregor Blanco, who was sent to Gwinnett, is required to spend 10 days in the minors before being eligible to be called up.  He will be eligible on July 31st.  In 58 at-bats in Atlanta this season, Blanco has hit .310, but the Braves front office has not yet decided if Blanco will end up back in Atlanta in the next week.  At this point, the Braves are still in search of the answer to a long-term solution in center field.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next for McLouth or the Braves as a whole in center field, but here’s wishing McLouth the best.  If we don’t see a move for a center fielder at the trade deadline, I’d love to see Gregor back in Atlanta ASAP.

The Official Fried Baseball Atlanta Braves Trade Show

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington analyzes the Escobar/Gonzalez trade and breaks down possible remaining trade targets. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Here are a few key numbers to keep in mind for this discussion:

Matt Diaz got off to a very slow start and then of course spent a lengthy period of time on the DL. But his numbers last year against left-handed pitching were insane. And it was no fluke, as his numbers over the last 3 years clearly indicate. You will see those numbers below. We have also scaled his vs-lefties numbers out to 550 at-bats, just for perspective. It’s difficult to overstate how good he’s been against left-handed pitching.

Below are projected post-all-star numbers of potential Left-Field trade targets vs. a Diaz/Hinske platoon (based on first-half production – and 242 expected post-all-star at bats):

Yunel Escobar Traded To Toronto

Frank Wren is showing that the Atlanta Braves are ready to compete in the second half of the season, trading shortstop Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes to Toronto in exchange for shortstop Alex Gonzalez.

Yunel has been regarded as a strong defensive shortstop for the Braves but has struggled at the plate in 2010.  Combining that with a perceived negative attitude and the Braves were willing to look for other options at the shortstop position.

Let’s do a little statistical comparison of the two this season:

It’s hard to refute that this is an offensive upgrade in power for the Braves.  Gonzalez will strike out more and walk less, but produces a lot more excitement and power from the plate to help the Braves out in much needed situations.   I’m not sitting here and arguing that the Braves aren’t selling low on  Escobar.  They absolutely are, but with the chance of a playoff run in sight, the front office is doing what they can to put this team in a position to win this season.  Will we end up regretting sending Yunel on his way?  Time will tell.  The biggest question now for Bobby Cox is, where do we put Gonzalez in the lineup?

The deal is a five-player deal in total.  The Braves will also acquire minor leaguers Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky from the Blue Jays.  I’m excited about the trade and adding a little more power to the lineup.  Let’s get the second half underway!

Braves Looking To Add Outfield Bat

Fox Sports is reporting that the Braves are looking at adding an outfield bat – a right-handed slugging outfield bat, apparently.

Atlanta officials are considering Josh Willingham (Washington), Corey Hart (Milwaukee) and Jose Bautista (Toronto), but it doesn’t appear that any deal is imminent.

All three players will be free agents after the 2011 season. So, for the time being, their current teams aren’t under extreme pressure to move them.

But they are earning reasonable salaries, making them attractive to Atlanta and other suitors. Bautista has roughly $1.2 million left on this year’s contract; Willingham $2.3 million; Hart $2.4 million.

I can understand why we’d want to add any of the three. They’re all going to hit 30 or more homers this year. They’re all on track to knock in at least 90 runs – more on a good team like the Braves. They’re power outfielders – and yes – they’d be more potent either in center than McLouth or left than Diaz/Hinske.

I like the idea of having more power. Imagine how much more potent a lineup of Prado, Heyward, Chipper, Hart, McCann, Glaus, Escobar, and Diaz would be than our current lineup. If I have to pick, I’m going with Corey Hart, who is hitting .306 with RISP and 2 outs and making $2.4M this season (not a fan of giving up prospects in-division to the Nats for Josh, and Baustista’s average is only .253, though with 20 HR/50RBI). We’ve got the salary room to add any of the guys mentioned above – our estimated payroll this year is around $83M, down from $96M last year.

I will caution (strongly) against giving up too much for a rental – any of these three are only under contract until the end of this season. But if we can give up a decent (not top) prospect and in return add a 30+ homer, 100+ RBI guy to the lineup, we should do that. If any season is worth doing that to “push us over the edge,” it’s this one. Short-term moves like this have bitten us in the ass before.

We need to make sure that this isn’t something we’ll regret as much as the JD Drew and Eli Marrero for Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright trade, or the time we gave up Elvis Andrus and Neftali Feliz for a year of Mark Teixeira. But another hitter to provide some significant punch in the middle of the lineup is only going to ensure that Prado, Heyward and Chipper are getting good pitches.

This is the year I’ll be OK with a rental. Let’s just not give up too much – I’d rather pay way more cash than give up the wrong prospect.

Hindsight: Johnny Damon

Remember when there was speculation that the Atlanta Braves might beat out the Detroit Tigers for outfielder Johnny Damon? The argument was that Damon would provide some power and consistency in the outfield.

Man, am I glad we didn’t pay $8M for an outfielder that can’t field or throw particularly well, is hitting .269 with 18 RBI and 3 HR.

Eric Hinske is doing just fine by me. For contrast, we paid him $1M and he’s batting .308, has knocked in 28 runs, has 5 homers, and has struck out 33 times to Damon’s 40. The only thing that Damon is better than Hinske at is walking. Damon has more than double the number of walks Eric’s landed (37 to 15).

In hindsight, I’m so glad we didn’t pay out $8M for a player who is underperforming one of our bargain retreads. Damon’s simply not worth the money the Tigers are paying him.

Plus, we’ve got the salary room to make a move if we decide to pull the trigger on a deal going into the second half of the season.

Braves Not Shopping Escobar… But They Should Be

An article hit the trade rumor wire recently that the Atlanta Braves were not actively shopping Yunel Escobar on the trade block and that it’d take “an extremely attractive package” to move him.

Why?

What we have here is an excellent defensive shortstop with an average bat that shows flashes of brilliance and a Hanley Ramirez-esque attitude. No, we don’t have a particularly awesome minor league prospect waiting to come step into his shoes, but we also don’t have the All-Star caliber shortstop we thought we had.

Now, I’m not saying that the Braves should trade Escobar for two sacks of baseballs and some sunflower seeds. What I am saying is that we should listen to trade offers and see if we can land a sweet deal. I doubt we’ll get anything good with the way he’s playing though…

I also would really like to see Escobar get over his childish self and become the offensively and defensively productive shortstop we all saw a year ago. Time for him to grow up or get out of Atlanta – we don’t have time for an immature shortstop to work out his mental lapses when we’re in the middle of a damn good year. We need all cylinders firing this year.

Grow up or get out, Yunel. It’s time to mature.