Do We Really Want This Xavier Nady Character?

“We need more power!”

Thanks, Scotty. We knew that. While we’d all like our offense to go to 11, I’m not sure I’m super thrilled with the options. Mark DeRosa is off the table, Matt Holliday is likely signing with the Cards soon, not many people are thrilled with the idea of Uggla coming in, and Xavier Nady is the other name that gets tossed around a lot. And yes, he’s good for 25 homers and 100 RBIs when he’s healthy.

But he’s had some issues and is just coming off not his first, but his SECOND Tommy John surgery. And yes, he’s just an outfielder – not a pitcher – and is being acquired more for his bat than anything. And yes, he’s probably cheaper than before his second TJ.

But he will still have to make throws. And when will he be back to 100%? How many runs will we give up because people will run on a weak-armed, twice-rebuilt robo elbow in left field?

Sure – we have doctors and if we sign him then I’m sure we think he’s a good deal and good upside and all that. I get that. But I’m just a little bit worried. Just sayin’. That’s TWO Tommy John surgeries, dudes and dudettes. Just not so sure about that.

“Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology…”

Who should we go for instead? What about Johnny Damon or a one year deal for Vladimir Guerrero? Jermaine Dye?

Source: Braves Acquire Adam LaRoche

Update: Looks like this is a done deal – Kotchman for LaRoche. ESPN is confirming as are multiple sportswriter sources via Twitter.

Update: Yahoo’s Gordon Edes (and MLBTradeRumors) reports that the Braves have acquired Adam LaRoche from the Boston Red Sox. There are a few confirmations that this is at least in the works, very close, if not confirmed. Monitoring…

SI’s Jon Heyman reports that now that the Red Sox have acquired Victor Martinez from the Indians, they’re looking to move Adam LaRoche. The Braves are reported to be interested.

LaRoche is hitting .248 this season but that’s with 13 homers, 43 RBIs, and far too many strikeouts. He’d be a bit of power for the Braves (who wouldn’t be able to unload Kotchman onto the Sox) but isn’t quite a high average hitter. That said, he’s probably a better fit for the Braves than Nick Johnson, as I suggested this morning.

Glad to hear the Braves may be looking to upgrade their first base slot at the deadline. Now Braves: make a smart deal, upgrade us a bit, and don’t mortgage the future.

Personal note: I’m not sure that LaRoche is that much of an upgrade over Kotchman. Too many strikeouts and not high enough OBP. What are your thoughts? Good idea or no?

Hudson Inching Towards Comeback

If all goes as planned, we could see Tim Hudson back in an Atlanta Braves jersey by mid-August.  Hudson has been sidelined for about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Last night, he took the start in Gwinnett, throwing 4 scoreless innings of 4-hit baseball.  27 of his 41 pitches were thrown for strikes, while he struck out 4 batters and didn’t walk anyone.

If all goes well with his next starts in Triple-A, we should fully expect to see Hudson heading back to Turner Field.  This leaves the question, however, who is the odd-man-out in the rotation?  Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Hanson, Kawakami and then Hudson would all be looking at starting pitcher spots.  Lowe, Jurrjens and Vazquez all are undeniably safe in their starting jobs.  As far as I see it, Kawakami would be the 6th man when the situation arises, barring a complete breakdown by Tommy Hanson.

It’s not a bad situation to have, with 6 capable starters on a squad.  Any injuries to a starter will be a much less scary prospect if we are carrying an extra starter as a long reliever.  It’s not an easy situation for a lot of starters when it comes to switching to the bullpen, but the front office is going to have to make a choice.  What do you think should happen?  My vote is for Kawakami to head to the bullpen if all stays as it is right now.

Braves Need Outfield Upgrade

Batting .240. One home run every 10 games. An on base percentage of .272. Folks, those aren’t last year’s stats.

Jeff Francoeur – “The Natural” – came into Spring Training with a new outlook on life. He was swinging differently, poking opposite field hits again, and promised he’d stick to his guns. But here we are, 25% of the way through the season, and he’s right back where he was last year. He’s playing worse than Garret Anderson, for crying out loud. And that’s saying something.

As much as it pains me to make this assessment, it might be time for Jeff to go. He needs a change of scenery. That’s nothing more than my personal opinion. But I’ve stood up for Jeff for the longest time. He’s just the hole in our lineup that needs patching at this point. Between him and Diaz/Anderson in left, our corner outfield positions have no bite. I’ll go ahead and say it – either Francoeur is moving or Diaz/Anderson are moving before the trade deadline. What other positions do we upgrade? Second base – who are we going to land there? We got McLouth. We need more offense. We can’t have traded for McLouth and still not have enough firepower. The pitching staff is solid. We have to make a run. And I’m not convinced that Francoeur has what it takes to play right field full-time on a contending team.

That’s hard for me to do. I really really REALLY like the guy. I really want him to succeed. I want him to turn it around starting tomorrow and prove me wrong. But a .240 average with a projected 16 home runs isn’t what we need out of a corner outfielder if we are to couple a potent offense with our pitching staff.

If we can keep Francoeur, I’ll be happy. But he’s got to step it up, and I don’t see that happening. He’s gone to the minors for a game or two. He’s changed his swing. He’s reverted to his old hack-and-hope mindset, and now I think it’s time to cut bait.

Tell me how I’m wrong. Convince me otherwise. But for now I’m looking at who can replace Francoeur, Anderson, and Diaz. We have got to get better offensive output from our outfield.

Braves Interested In Penny?

ESPN is reporting that the Braves are eyeing – get this – starting pitcher Brad Penny. The Red Sox are said to be eyeing Jeff Francoeur. The idea is that Kawakami has been very effective in his first 45 pitches and that the Braves could add Penny to the rotation and move Kawakami to the bullpen.

That’s ridiculous.

There’s no way the Braves need another starting pitcher right now – especially one who struggled in the early part of this season. The MLB’s Mark Bowman says that if Kawakami struggles, then Kris Medlen will move from the bullpen to the starting rotation in place of Kawakami. I’d have to agree. And I don’t think Kawakami will struggle as much if he gets some actual run support. Once again, the Braves have scored only 1.5 runs on average while Kawakami is in the game. With an earned run average of 4.63, that’s not winning many games. More offense will help that.

No way the Sox are moving Penny to Atlanta. They may be interested in Francoeur, but they’ll have to give up something other than a starting pitcher to move him.

Is It Time For Boyer To Go?

The biggest frustration for Braves fans this season has been the bullpen and their inability to exhibit any stable effectiveness to maintain a lead or close game.  Starting with blowing a 7-run lead in an inning and, most recently, allowing the Marlins to pull away from a 5-4 lead to 10-4 in an inning.  With that kind of performance, how can you expect to win games aside from having your starters go the distance?

If you were to ask five Braves fans who the most unreliable reliever on the staff was, there is a good chance you would get at least four different answers.  They’re just that bad at times.  My all-around choice for most lacking in production on the staff, however, is Blaine Boyer, without a doubt.

Last year, we gave Boyer a free pass.  The bullpen was depleted by injuries and starters just weren’t able to get deep in the games at all.  By the All-Star Break, Boyer had compiled 51 appearances and was believed to be battling the arm fatigue developed from that throughout the rest of the season.  By the time the season had ended, he had appeared in 76 games and compiled a 5.88 ERA with a 2-6 record.

Sure enough, let it slide, he was worn down, beaten up and just all around needing a break.  Well he got it.  It’s called the offseason.  This season, Boyer should have a fresh arm and be ready to go, but so far, more of the same.  Wednesday night, he faced 5 batters and gave up 4 runs.  On the season, Blaine has been on the mound in 3 games, recorded 4 outs and given up 6 earned runs.  Not to mention that he has walked three batters and hit another; something we really just don’t want to see out of relievers.  With all said and done, and a little bit of math, that’s a 40.50 ERA and an 0-1 record.

So here is the question, is it time for Blaine Boyer to hit the road?  When Jo-Jo Reyes is called up from Gwinnett on Saturday to take the start in the place of the injured Tom Glavine, someone has to be sent down to make room on the roster.  All signs point to that person being Boyer, based solely on performance.  Sure, he has potential and a powerful arm, but how long can we really be patient and hope that it develops?

The catch is that Boyer is out of options, so there is the chance that if we send him to the minors, he could be claimed and no longer part of the organization.  At this point, I’m not convinced that that is a bad thing to happen.  Maybe he can find more success elsewhere for some other club.  Am I being too harsh or is it time for Blaine to start packing?

What If Chipper Hadn’t Signed?

Today’s article is a guest post from Jack Liberio, submitted via the Mailbag.  Be sure to welcome Jack as a poster on the site and, as always, feel free to make submissions of your own.

Make no mistake about it, there was no way Frank Wren could afford to let Chipper Jones walk after the season. Entering the final year of his contract, the Braves’ long-time third baseman made no secret of his desire to work out a contract extension with the only team he’s ever played for, and following the public uproar over John Smoltz’s departure earlier this winter, Wren would’ve faced an even larger revolt next winter if Chipper had entered free agency.

Jones agreed to a three year, $41 million guaranteed offer (which could go as high as $62 million and four years in options and incentives). Ignoring the public relations aspect, did the Braves even have a choice when it comes to the baseball aspect?

Jones is incredibly productive when healthy, worth an incredible 7.5 wins above replacement last season. He’s had only one season under 4 wins above replacement since 2002 (3.4 in 2004), factoring in his injury issues. Trying to replace that production next offseason would’ve proven to be a difficult task for Wren and the Braves’ front office.

Potential free agent options next winter include:

Adrian Beltre (SEA): Six years younger than Jones, Beltre’s easily the best available option on the open market. He’s finishing up a five year, $64 million contract, making $12 million this season. He’s a Boras client, who the Braves have been able to successfully work with (see Derek Lowe), but you can be confident that Boras will get top dollar for Beltre next winter. Beltre’s played at about a 4 win rate over the last three seasons, so he’s nothing to scoff at. The large majority of his value, though, comes from his glove. One of the absolute best defenders at third base, Beltre makes his pitchers look better. His bat’s okay, at almost seven runs above replacement last year, but he wouldn’t come close to replacing Chipper’s offensive production. If Wren had made a run at Beltre, he’d have certainly had to offer at least as much, if not more, as they were able to get Chipper to agree to.

Chone Figgins (LAA): Figgins will be 32 next off-season, and would provide a different look for the hot corner in Atlanta. Figgins is a speed demon, stealing 223 bases over the last five years. It’s impossible to tell what you’re going to get out of his bat, however. If he repeats his 2007 performance (.330/.393/.432), you’ve got a great lead-off hitter. Of course, his 2007 was sustained on an impossible .399 BABIP. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to a more sustainable .333 (his career BABIP is only .295, so it could potentially regress even further), and Figgins’ slash line last year was .279/.367/.318. Jeff Francoeur was the only Braves regular last year with a lower slugging percentage, and with the loss of Chipper, the Braves would be dying for power in the middle of the lineup – McCann can’t provide the entirety of the team’s punch.

Joe Crede (MIN): Another Boras client, Crede signed a one year deal this winter in order to reestablish himself as a reliable option. Plagued with all kinds of injury problems (sound familiar?), Crede hit .248/.314/.460 last year in just 97 games. Coming in at just under 2 wins above replacement, Crede would represent a major step down from the production, both offensively and defensively, the Braves are accustomed to. He would’ve certainly been available for less than the $14M the Braves will be paying to Chipper next year, but even if they’d been able to sign him for half of that figure, the team would be looking for another upgrade somewhere else in the lineup for about $7M.

Potential trade options:

Michael Young (TEX): Young’s 5 year/$80M contract extension just kicked in this year, and if the Braves desperately needed someone, they could probably get him for not much more than salary relief, but it’s safe to say there’s absolutely no reason Young will be in high demand any time soon.

Aramis Ramirez (CHC): It’s possible the Cubs could start looking at moving their third baseman within the next year or two, but it seems unlikely. He’s maintained a remarkably steady .900 OPS over the last four years, even as his K% climbed to 17.0% last year. He’s got a full no-trade clause, makes nearly $16M in 2010, and has a $16.6M player option for 2011. The cost both in dollars and prospects that would be required to get Ramirez make it highly unlikely the Braves would’ve considered any deal.

Garrett Atkins (COL): The Rockies have made no secret out of the fact that they’ve been trying to move Atkins, even after trading away Matt Holliday to Oakland earlier this offseason. 2010 will be Atkins’ last year under team control, so the Braves would either have viewed him as a stopgap solution or be forced to try and sign him to an extension. Making just over $7M in his second year of arbitration, Atkins could expect close to $9.5M next off-season in his final year of arbitration, and then a yearly rate of over $11.5M each year thereafter. Atkins hit .286/.328/.452 last season, and was worth only 0.5 wins. He’s an atrocity with the glove, putting up a combined total of -26.2 runs in fielding alone over the last two seasons. The Rockies are known for being fairly ridiculous in asking price for their players, so the Braves would again be forced to deal a handful of quality prospects, as well as pay nearly $10M for Atkins in 2010.

Potential internal options:

Omar Infante/Martin Prado: It’s possible the Braves could’ve chosen to go with either of their internal options at third if Chipper was gone in 2010, but as we’ve seen in their limited time throughout 2008, neither is quite good enough to be a starting infielder. Neither fits the prototypical mold of a power third baseman, and like Figgins, going with a non-power player at third base would leave the Braves gasping for power in their lineup.

Brandon Hicks: He’s a shortstop right now, and while it has been mentioned that he could eventually be Chipper’s replacement at third, he’s also seen as a glove-first, bat-second player.

Eric Campbell: Once upon a time, he was destined to be Chipper’s replacement. He hasn’t exactly worked out as planned, so even though he may have gotten a chance to prove his worth, it’s unlikely Campbell would’ve taken over at third for long.

When it came down to it, Chipper Jones had all the leverage in the world when it came to negotiating his extension in Atlanta. He’s incredibly productive, even factoring in his injury issues, and he’s the face of the franchise. One day it’ll be McCann’s face on the billboards downtown instead of Chipper’s, but for now, two offseasons in a row in which the Braves lost long-time players would’ve spelled trouble for Frank Wren, regardless of the quality of the job he was doing.

There are no better options on either the free agent market or among current major league third basemen, and the Braves don’t have any high quality third base prospects coming up through the system any time soon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft or trade for one during the next three years, because when Chipper does retire, whether it’s in 2012 or 2013, they’ll need someone ready to take his mantle.

Glancing At The Roster

Spring Training is underway and there are many many people in camp working out, throwing, batting, and getting ready for some exhibition games. Since it’s entirely too early to begin looking at the roster slots, let’s do just that. The Braves will start the season with 25 men on their roster – but who will make the final few spots that aren’t known yet? Let’s take a look, stating with position players (13 roster slots)

Definite: Brian McCann, Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Dave Ross, Greg Norton

Probable: Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson, Martin Prado

That leaves 2 slots open for battle – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Jones, and Jordan Schafer probably battle it out for those 2 positions. We may see some other competitors show up as spring training rolls on – and the mix may be thrown off by a veteran acquisition if the Braves decide to go that route.

And now for the pitching staff (12 roster slots, historically)

Definite: Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan

Probable: Tom Glavine, Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer

That leaves, once again, 2 roster slots for which many will compete. I’d argue that Jorge Campillo is likely to land one of them (debate that if you want), leaving Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Ridgway, Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty and Phil Stockman to fight it out. The edge may go to the emerging top lefty, but that’s speculation.

Play the role of Bobby Cox for just a bit – if you had to write up your expected 25 man roster now, who makes it and who doesn’t? What considerations would you take into account as you make your decisions?

Griffey Saga Coming To An End….In Seattle

The saga of where Ken Griffey Jr. is going to end up for the 2009 season has taken its latest turn and it appears that Griffey will now be heading back to Seattle where he began his career.  Griffey has been dwelling on the decision between the Braves and Mariners for a couple of days.  Atlanta provided some benefits that would allow him to be close to family and play for Bobby Cox, but Griffey has felt some loyalty and attraction to the fans  and Mariners organization that made the decision a difficult one.  Sources report that Griffey’s contract with the Mariners will be for $2 million base with up to $4 million in other incentives.

The story behind where Griffey would end up has taken many turns over the past couple of days.  As we reported yesterday, it appeared that everything was in place to see Griffey here in Atlanta for the  upcoming season.  After that news broke however, he contacted MLB.com to inform them that he had not yet made a final decision on where he would be playing.  From that point on, everything started to shift back in the direction of playing in Seattle.  I don’t think that that really had much bearing on the decision, just goes to show that things aren’t final until all is said and done, as we’ve learned  multiple times this offseason.

As we know, nothing is definite until the paper is signed and the money is on the table, but all signs point that the deal is done for Griffey to head back to the Mariners.  What do we do at this point?  I don’t think this is going to break us or change much on our season outlook, but it puts a few more unknowns back in the outfield.  What’s best for the Braves to do now?  Stick young talent in the outfield or try to make a different acquisition?  I know we were excited about the prospect of having Griffey here in Atlanta, but it’s time to move on.

Mailbag: 5th Starter?

We’ve been getting quite a few Mailbag submissions and have assigned them to writers. They’ll get published soon. Please continue to offer Suggestions using the tab to your left or filling out the Mailbag form.

Tim wrote the BravesBlast mailbag with the following question:

Hi guys…I’ve just about had it with Mark Bowman over at MLB.com. His latest post about his projected rotation has Jo Jo Reyes penciled in as the 5th starter. What I want to know is this: What is he seeing that I’m missing? Reyes was by far our worst option last year. Why wouldn’t you use Campillo or even Morton in the 5 spot? Thanks and great site!

Thanks for the submission, Tim. First of all, I think the majority of the BravesBlast staff would puke if Reyes was flat-out awarded the fifth rotation spot. Sure, he’s got a chance at winning it, but only if all goes wrong. Obviously Lowe/Jurrjens/Vazquez/Kawakami are the first four pitchers in the 5-man rotation. Let’s take a look at the fifth rotation spot options.

Jorge Campillo is the first and best option that’s on the roster right now. Campillo has been likened to Greg Maddux and doesn’t have super impressive speed – but he has control going for him. Last year, he stepped into the rotation and impressed with an 8-7 record with a 3.91 ERA. And that was WITH that horrible luck the Braves had last year. Campillo is my top pick. If he doesn’t make the rotation, our bullpen is THAT much deeper with Campillo as the long reliever.

Tom Glavine isn’t even an option until he’s on the roster. He’s supposedly the guy that would trump the other candidates for the position – and he’s good – but do we really need to pay $3-5M for a fifth starter? We *could* sign Glavine, but I’m not sure we need to.

Charlie Morton may not be ready for the bigs, but he’ll get a chance to try and prove he’s ready. He’s 25 and young – and didn’t have the best luck in the big leagues last year. That said, I like Morton and as he matures I think he’ll be a decent 4th or 5th starter.

Jo-Jo Reyes is not a good option. He’s just not. I’m sorry, but when I mentioned to Jonathan that I was writing this article, he said the following about Jo-Jo. “Give me Campillo, or anyone but Jo-Jo, please.  I can’t spend another part of a season not watching every 5th game just because I know I’ll get angry.” That about sums Jo-Jo up. He also drives a Toyota Previa. Ok probably not, but it’s a long-standing joke amongst the crew here.

James Parr is a longshot. He went 1-0 in 5 starts with a 4.84 ERA last fall. He could make the rotation if everyone else flounders and he shines in spring training. Otherwise he spends at least the beginning of the year in Richmond.

Tommy Hanson is more likely to make the rotation in the middle of the season. I’d prefer him take his time before he gets to Atlanta – I want him to absolutely stun batters once he’s here. I’m looking forward to seeing him but don’t want to rush him. The sneak preview in Spring Training will be nice.

So there you have it – the main contenders for the 5th rotation slot. Discuss.

Why Not Garret Anderson?

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So – Why not Garret Anderson?  It’s no secret that the Braves are looking for a little extra pop in the outfield – specifically left field. The Braves are rumored to be considering Bobby Abreu, Nick Swisher, or Xavier Nady. But why not consider Garret Anderson, the Angels outfielder that’s on the market?  Good question – let’s take a look.

Garret Anderson is a lifetime .296 hitter with an average of 92 RBIs and 19.4 home runs. He has had some pop, and he can play great defense in the outfield. He’s played his entire career with the Angels and has been their outfield power bat since the late ’90s. He’s yet unsigned, and even though he made $12.6M last year and has Scott Boras as his agent, he could possibly be signed for significantly less than that this year. So – why aren’t the Braves looking at Anderson?

I’d think that the first thing is the amount of power that Anderson brings to the table. In the last five years, he’s averaged only just above 15 homeruns. Why would the Braves go sign him for a chunk of change when they could just as easily have Matt Diaz platoon with someone? Matt Diaz knocked 12 homers out of the park in 2007, the last time he was healthy for a full season. Augment that with Brandon Jones or Gregor Blanco and we could have a duo that’d exceed what Anderson could do. Anderson is a good bat – he batted .293 last season with 15 HRs and 84 RBIs – but is he better than what we’ve got right now? Will 15 homers cut it when we could probably produce 20-25 with an outfield duo already on roster? I just don’t know.

I’d say Anderson, while a good, quality, consistent player, isn’t a great fit for the Braves right now. And that’s why we’re not pursuing him, if I had to venture a guess.

Oh Man, What About Ohman?

First, please forgive me for the title of this post. You knew it was coming somewhere in the article, so I figured I’d get it out of the way up front. The Braves have been after the left handed Ohman this offseason and have made him what Ohman termed “a very strong offer intended to show me they want me back.”

And even though the Braves extended that offer early in the offseason, Ohman hasn’t signed. Why? He’s in fairly high demand. Besides the Braves, Ohman has also been linked to the Phillies, the Nationals, the Padres, the Orioles, Indians, Rockies, Cardinals, and Rays – at least. Oh, and today it was reported that the Mets gave him a call for the first time this offseason. Dirty New Yorkers.

Where will he end up? Good luck guessing. The Braves’ offer is still on the table. Ohman has told the AJC that he wants to sign with the Braves – but I’d assume they’re asking for a little more money than we’re offering. If the Mets sweep him away, I am not going to be a happy man. I’m sure they’ll try and offer more money – and I’m not sure the Braves want to spend tons more money than they’ve already offered to bring Ohman back. We don’t have THAT much budget flexibility.

One thing is clear: Ohman is a valuable lefty that will benefit whatever team lands him. He had a 3.68 ERA last season, but held lefties to a .197 batting average – which is what he’ll be used for primarily. We can only hope that the Braves land him to bolster their already promising bullpen, which is promising to be one of the better bullpens in recent memory, barring the Mike Hampton effect.

C’mon back to Atlanta, Will. We’d love to have you. Hope to see you at the Wide World of Sports in just a few days!