Thanks, Scotty. We knew that. While we’d all like our offense to go to 11, I’m not sure I’m super thrilled with the options. Mark DeRosa is off the table, Matt Holliday is likely signing with the Cards soon, not many people are thrilled with the idea of Uggla coming in, and Xavier Nady is the other name that gets tossed around a lot. And yes, he’s good for 25 homers and 100 RBIs when he’s healthy.

But he’s had some issues and is just coming off not his first, but his SECOND Tommy John surgery. And yes, he’s just an outfielder – not a pitcher – and is being acquired more for his bat than anything. And yes, he’s probably cheaper than before his second TJ.

But he will still have to make throws. And when will he be back to 100%? How many runs will we give up because people will run on a weak-armed, twice-rebuilt robo elbow in left field?

Sure – we have doctors and if we sign him then I’m sure we think he’s a good deal and good upside and all that. I get that. But I’m just a little bit worried. Just sayin’. That’s TWO Tommy John surgeries, dudes and dudettes. Just not so sure about that.

“Gentlemen, we can rebuild him. We have the technology…”

Who should we go for instead? What about Johnny Damon or a one year deal for Vladimir Guerrero? Jermaine Dye?

Update: Yahoo’s Gordon Edes (and MLBTradeRumors) reports that the Braves have acquired Adam LaRoche from the Boston Red Sox. There are a few confirmations that this is at least in the works, very close, if not confirmed. Monitoring…

SI’s Jon Heyman reports that now that the Red Sox have acquired Victor Martinez from the Indians, they’re looking to move Adam LaRoche. The Braves are reported to be interested.

LaRoche is hitting .248 this season but that’s with 13 homers, 43 RBIs, and far too many strikeouts. He’d be a bit of power for the Braves (who wouldn’t be able to unload Kotchman onto the Sox) but isn’t quite a high average hitter. That said, he’s probably a better fit for the Braves than Nick Johnson, as I suggested this morning.

Glad to hear the Braves may be looking to upgrade their first base slot at the deadline. Now Braves: make a smart deal, upgrade us a bit, and don’t mortgage the future.

Personal note: I’m not sure that LaRoche is that much of an upgrade over Kotchman. Too many strikeouts and not high enough OBP. What are your thoughts? Good idea or no?

If all goes well with his next starts in Triple-A, we should fully expect to see Hudson heading back to Turner Field.  This leaves the question, however, who is the odd-man-out in the rotation?  Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Hanson, Kawakami and then Hudson would all be looking at starting pitcher spots.  Lowe, Jurrjens and Vazquez all are undeniably safe in their starting jobs.  As far as I see it, Kawakami would be the 6th man when the situation arises, barring a complete breakdown by Tommy Hanson.

It’s not a bad situation to have, with 6 capable starters on a squad.  Any injuries to a starter will be a much less scary prospect if we are carrying an extra starter as a long reliever.  It’s not an easy situation for a lot of starters when it comes to switching to the bullpen, but the front office is going to have to make a choice.  What do you think should happen?  My vote is for Kawakami to head to the bullpen if all stays as it is right now.

Jeff Francoeur – “The Natural” – came into Spring Training with a new outlook on life. He was swinging differently, poking opposite field hits again, and promised he’d stick to his guns. But here we are, 25% of the way through the season, and he’s right back where he was last year. He’s playing worse than Garret Anderson, for crying out loud. And that’s saying something.

As much as it pains me to make this assessment, it might be time for Jeff to go. He needs a change of scenery. That’s nothing more than my personal opinion. But I’ve stood up for Jeff for the longest time. He’s just the hole in our lineup that needs patching at this point. Between him and Diaz/Anderson in left, our corner outfield positions have no bite. I’ll go ahead and say it – either Francoeur is moving or Diaz/Anderson are moving before the trade deadline. What other positions do we upgrade? Second base – who are we going to land there? We got McLouth. We need more offense. We can’t have traded for McLouth and still not have enough firepower. The pitching staff is solid. We have to make a run. And I’m not convinced that Francoeur has what it takes to play right field full-time on a contending team.

That’s hard for me to do. I really really REALLY like the guy. I really want him to succeed. I want him to turn it around starting tomorrow and prove me wrong. But a .240 average with a projected 16 home runs isn’t what we need out of a corner outfielder if we are to couple a potent offense with our pitching staff.

If we can keep Francoeur, I’ll be happy. But he’s got to step it up, and I don’t see that happening. He’s gone to the minors for a game or two. He’s changed his swing. He’s reverted to his old hack-and-hope mindset, and now I think it’s time to cut bait.

Tell me how I’m wrong. Convince me otherwise. But for now I’m looking at who can replace Francoeur, Anderson, and Diaz. We have got to get better offensive output from our outfield.

That’s ridiculous.

There’s no way the Braves need another starting pitcher right now – especially one who struggled in the early part of this season. The MLB’s Mark Bowman says that if Kawakami struggles, then Kris Medlen will move from the bullpen to the starting rotation in place of Kawakami. I’d have to agree. And I don’t think Kawakami will struggle as much if he gets some actual run support. Once again, the Braves have scored only 1.5 runs on average while Kawakami is in the game. With an earned run average of 4.63, that’s not winning many games. More offense will help that.

No way the Sox are moving Penny to Atlanta. They may be interested in Francoeur, but they’ll have to give up something other than a starting pitcher to move him.

If you were to ask five Braves fans who the most unreliable reliever on the staff was, there is a good chance you would get at least four different answers.  They’re just that bad at times.  My all-around choice for most lacking in production on the staff, however, is Blaine Boyer, without a doubt.

Last year, we gave Boyer a free pass.  The bullpen was depleted by injuries and starters just weren’t able to get deep in the games at all.  By the All-Star Break, Boyer had compiled 51 appearances and was believed to be battling the arm fatigue developed from that throughout the rest of the season.  By the time the season had ended, he had appeared in 76 games and compiled a 5.88 ERA with a 2-6 record.

Sure enough, let it slide, he was worn down, beaten up and just all around needing a break.  Well he got it.  It’s called the offseason.  This season, Boyer should have a fresh arm and be ready to go, but so far, more of the same.  Wednesday night, he faced 5 batters and gave up 4 runs.  On the season, Blaine has been on the mound in 3 games, recorded 4 outs and given up 6 earned runs.  Not to mention that he has walked three batters and hit another; something we really just don’t want to see out of relievers.  With all said and done, and a little bit of math, that’s a 40.50 ERA and an 0-1 record.

So here is the question, is it time for Blaine Boyer to hit the road?  When Jo-Jo Reyes is called up from Gwinnett on Saturday to take the start in the place of the injured Tom Glavine, someone has to be sent down to make room on the roster.  All signs point to that person being Boyer, based solely on performance.  Sure, he has potential and a powerful arm, but how long can we really be patient and hope that it develops?

The catch is that Boyer is out of options, so there is the chance that if we send him to the minors, he could be claimed and no longer part of the organization.  At this point, I’m not convinced that that is a bad thing to happen.  Maybe he can find more success elsewhere for some other club.  Am I being too harsh or is it time for Blaine to start packing?

Make no mistake about it, there was no way Frank Wren could afford to let Chipper Jones walk after the season. Entering the final year of his contract, the Braves’ long-time third baseman made no secret of his desire to work out a contract extension with the only team he’s ever played for, and following the public uproar over John Smoltz’s departure earlier this winter, Wren would’ve faced an even larger revolt next winter if Chipper had entered free agency.

Jones agreed to a three year, $41 million guaranteed offer (which could go as high as $62 million and four years in options and incentives). Ignoring the public relations aspect, did the Braves even have a choice when it comes to the baseball aspect?

Jones is incredibly productive when healthy, worth an incredible 7.5 wins above replacement last season. He’s had only one season under 4 wins above replacement since 2002 (3.4 in 2004), factoring in his injury issues. Trying to replace that production next offseason would’ve proven to be a difficult task for Wren and the Braves’ front office.

Potential free agent options next winter include:

Adrian Beltre (SEA): Six years younger than Jones, Beltre’s easily the best available option on the open market. He’s finishing up a five year, $64 million contract, making $12 million this season. He’s a Boras client, who the Braves have been able to successfully work with (see Derek Lowe), but you can be confident that Boras will get top dollar for Beltre next winter. Beltre’s played at about a 4 win rate over the last three seasons, so he’s nothing to scoff at. The large majority of his value, though, comes from his glove. One of the absolute best defenders at third base, Beltre makes his pitchers look better. His bat’s okay, at almost seven runs above replacement last year, but he wouldn’t come close to replacing Chipper’s offensive production. If Wren had made a run at Beltre, he’d have certainly had to offer at least as much, if not more, as they were able to get Chipper to agree to.

Chone Figgins (LAA): Figgins will be 32 next off-season, and would provide a different look for the hot corner in Atlanta. Figgins is a speed demon, stealing 223 bases over the last five years. It’s impossible to tell what you’re going to get out of his bat, however. If he repeats his 2007 performance (.330/.393/.432), you’ve got a great lead-off hitter. Of course, his 2007 was sustained on an impossible .399 BABIP. In 2008, his BABIP dropped to a more sustainable .333 (his career BABIP is only .295, so it could potentially regress even further), and Figgins’ slash line last year was .279/.367/.318. Jeff Francoeur was the only Braves regular last year with a lower slugging percentage, and with the loss of Chipper, the Braves would be dying for power in the middle of the lineup – McCann can’t provide the entirety of the team’s punch.

Joe Crede (MIN): Another Boras client, Crede signed a one year deal this winter in order to reestablish himself as a reliable option. Plagued with all kinds of injury problems (sound familiar?), Crede hit .248/.314/.460 last year in just 97 games. Coming in at just under 2 wins above replacement, Crede would represent a major step down from the production, both offensively and defensively, the Braves are accustomed to. He would’ve certainly been available for less than the $14M the Braves will be paying to Chipper next year, but even if they’d been able to sign him for half of that figure, the team would be looking for another upgrade somewhere else in the lineup for about $7M.

Potential trade options:

Michael Young (TEX): Young’s 5 year/$80M contract extension just kicked in this year, and if the Braves desperately needed someone, they could probably get him for not much more than salary relief, but it’s safe to say there’s absolutely no reason Young will be in high demand any time soon.

Aramis Ramirez (CHC): It’s possible the Cubs could start looking at moving their third baseman within the next year or two, but it seems unlikely. He’s maintained a remarkably steady .900 OPS over the last four years, even as his K% climbed to 17.0% last year. He’s got a full no-trade clause, makes nearly $16M in 2010, and has a $16.6M player option for 2011. The cost both in dollars and prospects that would be required to get Ramirez make it highly unlikely the Braves would’ve considered any deal.

Garrett Atkins (COL): The Rockies have made no secret out of the fact that they’ve been trying to move Atkins, even after trading away Matt Holliday to Oakland earlier this offseason. 2010 will be Atkins’ last year under team control, so the Braves would either have viewed him as a stopgap solution or be forced to try and sign him to an extension. Making just over $7M in his second year of arbitration, Atkins could expect close to $9.5M next off-season in his final year of arbitration, and then a yearly rate of over $11.5M each year thereafter. Atkins hit .286/.328/.452 last season, and was worth only 0.5 wins. He’s an atrocity with the glove, putting up a combined total of -26.2 runs in fielding alone over the last two seasons. The Rockies are known for being fairly ridiculous in asking price for their players, so the Braves would again be forced to deal a handful of quality prospects, as well as pay nearly $10M for Atkins in 2010.

Potential internal options:

Omar Infante/Martin Prado: It’s possible the Braves could’ve chosen to go with either of their internal options at third if Chipper was gone in 2010, but as we’ve seen in their limited time throughout 2008, neither is quite good enough to be a starting infielder. Neither fits the prototypical mold of a power third baseman, and like Figgins, going with a non-power player at third base would leave the Braves gasping for power in their lineup.

Brandon Hicks: He’s a shortstop right now, and while it has been mentioned that he could eventually be Chipper’s replacement at third, he’s also seen as a glove-first, bat-second player.

Eric Campbell: Once upon a time, he was destined to be Chipper’s replacement. He hasn’t exactly worked out as planned, so even though he may have gotten a chance to prove his worth, it’s unlikely Campbell would’ve taken over at third for long.

When it came down to it, Chipper Jones had all the leverage in the world when it came to negotiating his extension in Atlanta. He’s incredibly productive, even factoring in his injury issues, and he’s the face of the franchise. One day it’ll be McCann’s face on the billboards downtown instead of Chipper’s, but for now, two offseasons in a row in which the Braves lost long-time players would’ve spelled trouble for Frank Wren, regardless of the quality of the job he was doing.

There are no better options on either the free agent market or among current major league third basemen, and the Braves don’t have any high quality third base prospects coming up through the system any time soon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them draft or trade for one during the next three years, because when Chipper does retire, whether it’s in 2012 or 2013, they’ll need someone ready to take his mantle.

Definite: Brian McCann, Casey Kotchman, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur, Dave Ross, Greg Norton

Probable: Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson, Martin Prado

That leaves 2 slots open for battle – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Jones, and Jordan Schafer probably battle it out for those 2 positions. We may see some other competitors show up as spring training rolls on – and the mix may be thrown off by a veteran acquisition if the Braves decide to go that route.

And now for the pitching staff (12 roster slots, historically)

Definite: Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan

Probable: Tom Glavine, Manny Acosta, Blaine Boyer

That leaves, once again, 2 roster slots for which many will compete. I’d argue that Jorge Campillo is likely to land one of them (debate that if you want), leaving Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Ridgway, Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty and Phil Stockman to fight it out. The edge may go to the emerging top lefty, but that’s speculation.

Play the role of Bobby Cox for just a bit – if you had to write up your expected 25 man roster now, who makes it and who doesn’t? What considerations would you take into account as you make your decisions?

The story behind where Griffey would end up has taken many turns over the past couple of days.  As we reported yesterday, it appeared that everything was in place to see Griffey here in Atlanta for the  upcoming season.  After that news broke however, he contacted MLB.com to inform them that he had not yet made a final decision on where he would be playing.  From that point on, everything started to shift back in the direction of playing in Seattle.  I don’t think that that really had much bearing on the decision, just goes to show that things aren’t final until all is said and done, as we’ve learned  multiple times this offseason.

As we know, nothing is definite until the paper is signed and the money is on the table, but all signs point that the deal is done for Griffey to head back to the Mariners.  What do we do at this point?  I don’t think this is going to break us or change much on our season outlook, but it puts a few more unknowns back in the outfield.  What’s best for the Braves to do now?  Stick young talent in the outfield or try to make a different acquisition?  I know we were excited about the prospect of having Griffey here in Atlanta, but it’s time to move on.

Tim wrote the BravesBlast mailbag with the following question:

Hi guys…I’ve just about had it with Mark Bowman over at MLB.com. His latest post about his projected rotation has Jo Jo Reyes penciled in as the 5th starter. What I want to know is this: What is he seeing that I’m missing? Reyes was by far our worst option last year. Why wouldn’t you use Campillo or even Morton in the 5 spot? Thanks and great site!

Thanks for the submission, Tim. First of all, I think the majority of the BravesBlast staff would puke if Reyes was flat-out awarded the fifth rotation spot. Sure, he’s got a chance at winning it, but only if all goes wrong. Obviously Lowe/Jurrjens/Vazquez/Kawakami are the first four pitchers in the 5-man rotation. Let’s take a look at the fifth rotation spot options.

Jorge Campillo is the first and best option that’s on the roster right now. Campillo has been likened to Greg Maddux and doesn’t have super impressive speed – but he has control going for him. Last year, he stepped into the rotation and impressed with an 8-7 record with a 3.91 ERA. And that was WITH that horrible luck the Braves had last year. Campillo is my top pick. If he doesn’t make the rotation, our bullpen is THAT much deeper with Campillo as the long reliever.

Tom Glavine isn’t even an option until he’s on the roster. He’s supposedly the guy that would trump the other candidates for the position – and he’s good – but do we really need to pay $3-5M for a fifth starter? We *could* sign Glavine, but I’m not sure we need to.

Charlie Morton may not be ready for the bigs, but he’ll get a chance to try and prove he’s ready. He’s 25 and young – and didn’t have the best luck in the big leagues last year. That said, I like Morton and as he matures I think he’ll be a decent 4th or 5th starter.

Jo-Jo Reyes is not a good option. He’s just not. I’m sorry, but when I mentioned to Jonathan that I was writing this article, he said the following about Jo-Jo. “Give me Campillo, or anyone but Jo-Jo, please.  I can’t spend another part of a season not watching every 5th game just because I know I’ll get angry.” That about sums Jo-Jo up. He also drives a Toyota Previa. Ok probably not, but it’s a long-standing joke amongst the crew here.

James Parr is a longshot. He went 1-0 in 5 starts with a 4.84 ERA last fall. He could make the rotation if everyone else flounders and he shines in spring training. Otherwise he spends at least the beginning of the year in Richmond.

Tommy Hanson is more likely to make the rotation in the middle of the season. I’d prefer him take his time before he gets to Atlanta – I want him to absolutely stun batters once he’s here. I’m looking forward to seeing him but don’t want to rush him. The sneak preview in Spring Training will be nice.

So there you have it – the main contenders for the 5th rotation slot. Discuss.

So – Why not Garret Anderson?  It’s no secret that the Braves are looking for a little extra pop in the outfield – specifically left field. The Braves are rumored to be considering Bobby Abreu, Nick Swisher, or Xavier Nady. But why not consider Garret Anderson, the Angels outfielder that’s on the market?  Good question – let’s take a look.

Garret Anderson is a lifetime .296 hitter with an average of 92 RBIs and 19.4 home runs. He has had some pop, and he can play great defense in the outfield. He’s played his entire career with the Angels and has been their outfield power bat since the late ’90s. He’s yet unsigned, and even though he made $12.6M last year and has Scott Boras as his agent, he could possibly be signed for significantly less than that this year. So – why aren’t the Braves looking at Anderson?

I’d think that the first thing is the amount of power that Anderson brings to the table. In the last five years, he’s averaged only just above 15 homeruns. Why would the Braves go sign him for a chunk of change when they could just as easily have Matt Diaz platoon with someone? Matt Diaz knocked 12 homers out of the park in 2007, the last time he was healthy for a full season. Augment that with Brandon Jones or Gregor Blanco and we could have a duo that’d exceed what Anderson could do. Anderson is a good bat – he batted .293 last season with 15 HRs and 84 RBIs – but is he better than what we’ve got right now? Will 15 homers cut it when we could probably produce 20-25 with an outfield duo already on roster? I just don’t know.

I’d say Anderson, while a good, quality, consistent player, isn’t a great fit for the Braves right now. And that’s why we’re not pursuing him, if I had to venture a guess.

And even though the Braves extended that offer early in the offseason, Ohman hasn’t signed. Why? He’s in fairly high demand. Besides the Braves, Ohman has also been linked to the Phillies, the Nationals, the Padres, the Orioles, Indians, Rockies, Cardinals, and Rays – at least. Oh, and today it was reported that the Mets gave him a call for the first time this offseason. Dirty New Yorkers.

Where will he end up? Good luck guessing. The Braves’ offer is still on the table. Ohman has told the AJC that he wants to sign with the Braves – but I’d assume they’re asking for a little more money than we’re offering. If the Mets sweep him away, I am not going to be a happy man. I’m sure they’ll try and offer more money – and I’m not sure the Braves want to spend tons more money than they’ve already offered to bring Ohman back. We don’t have THAT much budget flexibility.

One thing is clear: Ohman is a valuable lefty that will benefit whatever team lands him. He had a 3.68 ERA last season, but held lefties to a .197 batting average – which is what he’ll be used for primarily. We can only hope that the Braves land him to bolster their already promising bullpen, which is promising to be one of the better bullpens in recent memory, barring the Mike Hampton effect.

C’mon back to Atlanta, Will. We’d love to have you. Hope to see you at the Wide World of Sports in just a few days!

Chipper likes hitting third. He’s actually a bit better batting third in his career than he is batting fourth. Keep in mind he’s had something on the order of 6600 plate appearances in the three hole, and 2000 plate appearances in the four hole. When batting third, Chipper bats .316, OBP .411, SLG % .557. When he’s batted fourth, Chipper puts up a .297 average, .400 OBP, and .528 SLG %. Nothing THAT drastically different – Chipper has had more good years while batting third exclusively – but he’s more comfortable batting third and it shows, even if just a little bit. About the only area where his stats are that noticably unproportional is the IBB column – Chipper gets far more intentional walks batting fourth.

Chipper 3rd, McCann 4th

McCann has been exceptional in his first three full years with the Braves. He’s just not a true cleanup hitter – he hits 20+ish home runs, not 40. He fits in so well in the middle of the order – fifth or sixth – and I just don’t think we’re going to see him sprout 10-15 more home runs just by placing him right behind Chipper. Sure, McCann could do it – I think he’s the most qualified to do it other than Chipper – but I don’t think it’s the best fit.

Chipper 3rd, Francoeur 4th, McCann 5th

This puts a lot of weigh on Francoeur’s shoulders. He could theoretically step into it – I think he’s going to have a better year this year than last year for sure and I hope to see some power out of him as he develops. That said, I don’t think that this year is the year to put extra pressure on him by throwing him in the cleanup spot. He’s going to come around with time – we just need to be patient and wait for it.

Chipper 4th, McCann 5th

You could argue for 30+ comments about who to bat third (and please do! Register an account and use the thumbs up buttons to vote the comments you like to the top), but Chipper is the old pro, the most stable player on the team, and hits for the most power. He’s also a lot older and wiser than he was the last time he had to hit fourth primarily. He hits the most home runs. He’s developed more as a player. I think that this makes the most sense and is something I’d be most comfortable with. Chipper also is generally a selfless player – he puts it all on the line for the team – and if this is the need, I’m sure he’s more than willing to step into the role.

All I’m saying is that IF the Braves don’t acquire a power bat for the outfield, Chipper makes the most sense in the four hole, despite him having a preference for batting third. Either way, it’s going to be fun to watch.

Both would fit in well and fill the need (a bat providing a little bit of power in the outfield). That said, there are a couple of other options – being Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, both of whom we’d have to trade for (and send people to the Yankees, no less). And you ask, what about Andruw Jones? Is he still an option? Today I attempt to answer all of those questions (and more).

Overall, I think that Abreu fits the bill best. What’s the bill? An outfielder with a powerful bat that can play one season in our outfield before we’re absolutely swamped with the next wave of young Braves prospects to the point where we’d be stupid to pay someone else to play outfield. Abreu is older – he can fill the need without costing too much – and he’s most likely to be cool with a one year contract.

Dunn flat out costs too much. He’s asking $14M, and though some people think he could be grabbed for $10M/year, I think he’s more likely to get a multi-year deal. Sure, he’s more powerful (40 HR his last 5 seasons),  but we flat out don’t have the money for Dunn. Dunn and Done. I just am not going to give him any more consideration – even at $10M we can’t afford him.

Nady just signed a one year, $6.55M deal with the Yankees – so the Braves would have to trade for him AND pay his salary – something I don’t see us doing with an outfielder like Abreu on the free agent market. For a little less money than Nady, we can get someone with very comparable numbers – a couple more homers and doubles, sure, but fewer RBIs. Nady would give us a little bit of flexibility as he plays first base too, but we’re not looking for a first baseman.

Nick Swisher comes with a more long-term commitment than the Braves are looking for right now. He makes $5.3M this year, $6.75M next, and $9M in 2011. Why do that when in three years we could have potentially an outfield of Francoeur, Schafer, and Heyward? I just don’t see us trading for a player that would be around that long – not to mention Swisher is coming off a season where he hit .219 with 25 HRs. Yikes – we don’t need another Andruw Jones.

Similarly, we don’t need Andruw Jones himself. Andruw won’t take a minor league contract, both he and Boras have indicated – and even if we give him a minimum salary contract, there’s no guarantee we’ll see him fight his way onto the roster. I’d point out that bringing him back this year seems like it’d be a lot like bringing back Javy Lopez last year. May bring more people out to Spring Training games, but is that really the point?

I think that we’re most likely to see Abreu in Atlanta, but what do I know? Argue me wrong

Kotchman had a rough transition to the Braves last year when he arrived in the trade that sent Mark Teixeira to the Angels.  He started out in a slump for the first month or so before pulling it together a little bit to close out the season.  His time with the Braves for the season saw a .237 average and .316 slugging percentage with 2 home runs in 43 games.

I’m looking for a little better production out of Kotchman this season, but as always, we make no claims here to have any real backing for the stats we come up with before even seeing the players in preseason.  I’m predicting .285 average, 73 runs scored, 89 RBI and 15 HRs.  Kotchman doesn’t give us the production of a power first-baseman, but adds some potential pop to the bottom portion of the lineup.

With a contract settled for Kotchman, that leaves Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur as the only two remaining arbitration-eligible players for the Braves.  While the Braves are likely to reach an agreement for Kelly Johnson in the upcoming week or two, they realize that there is the chance that Francoeur’s contract may go the whole way to an aribtration hearing.  That hearing is scheduled for February 20th.

What should we expect out of Casey Kotchman this season?  He’s got great potential as a fielder and hopefully he can pick it up a little at the plate and create a little bit of offensive punch for us in the 2009 season.

What does Escobar do in 2009? I think he bats second. We’ll throw Josh Anderson / Gregor Blanco in the leadoff slot and let Escobar hit second. Chipper is third, and it’ll go on from there. Escobar’s average jumped up .40 points batting third last year, but that’s Chipper’s spot as long as he wants it. Escobar will continue to mature as a player and hopefully we’ll see an improvement over last year – which wasn’t really a sophomore slump – but it wasn’t as phenomenal as his first year. Bobby Cox deemed Escobar a future all-star last offseason, and we hope he turns into that player in the coming couple of years.

So now the time comes to pull numbers out of my keister. Once again, don’t bet on this. I’m not qualified to be doing this, but neither is anybody else. My prediction for Yunel Escobar in 2009 is as follows:

.298 BA, 16 HRs, 73 RBIs, 55 strikeouts, 65 walks, 30 doubles, and… oh I dunno, 80 runs scored.

Go ahead, tell me how you disagree. Then pull numbers out of thin air and we’ll argue. I’m looking forward to see Escobar this coming year – I hope to see him improve as he matures. Give him another few years and we’ll see the All Star player we hope to see.

Why would Hudson be unhappy about the club option? The only reason I can think of is that Hudson believes he can make more on the open market and he’s not getting any younger. That said, he’s loved playing with the Braves and being close to home (he’s from Columbus, GA) as far as we know. I think that even if he is “unhappy” it’s more of a “wish I could sign a new contract” and not anything like a “don’t like the Braves anymore.”

Tim Hudson will probably be back with the Braves in 2010 – and I hope he is back and healthy. He’ll make $12 million, which is a decent amount of money. I think he’ll take the year to prove that he’s healthy and able to still pitch successfully – and get more money on the other side. I don’t think I’d be that unhappy with the club option for $12 million in 2010 – but that’s just me.

Colin

Two Starting Pitchers

We’ve acquired three. Ace-to-be Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami signed as free agents. The third, Javier Vazquez, was acquired via trade from the White Sox. The three pitchers will augment the Braves’ Jair Jurrjens as the four regular starters (all can eat innings), and we’ll likely see Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton, and perhaps Tommy Hanson fight for the fifth rotation spot. Now that we’ve got a stable rotation, look for the Braves not to rush Hanson to the big leagues, though he’ll be ready in a year or two to start regularly. When Tim Hudson comes back from Tommy John surgery late in the season, he’ll provide the Braves with one of the best rotations late in the season, if he’s true to form. The Braves’ rotation won’t be something to sneeze at, even though it’s not going to be the best rotation in the history of baseball.

An Outfield Bat

I’d imagine the Braves are still looking to fill this need. Even though we’ve got Jeff Francoeur, Matt Diaz, Josh Anderson, Gregor Blanco, Brandon Jones, and Jordan Schafer as options, we need a bat to help replace the hole left by Teixeira’s departure and to protect Chipper in the lineup. If the Braves do sign someone, it will only be for a year or two, because in addition to the players I already listed, Gorkeys Hernandez and Jason Heyward are outfield prospects in the minor league system, just two-three years away. Maybe Heyward switches to first, but there’s still a glut of good prospects waiting to play outfield for the Braves. I don’t know if we fill this or go with young talent, but if we want to compete in the NL East, we probably need another bat somewhere in the lineup. Left field is a logical position for that bat to play. If I were Wren, I’d look at Bobby Abreu for this role.

Extending Chipper’s Contract

Please, Braves, do this now. Smoltz didn’t retire here, but Chipper needs to. We’re starting to get a reputation for getting the best years out of our players, making this their home, and sending them elsewhere to die. See Aaron, Murphy, Justice, Maddux, Glavine (though he left of his own free will), and now Smoltz. Don’t let it happen to Chipper.

A Backup Catcher

Done. It flew under the radar, but the Braves signed Dave Ross to a two-year deal to back up Brian McCann early in December. He’ll make ~$1.5M each year he’s here. The Braves have been resting McCann once a week or so to try and save his knees, so we’ll see some time out of Ross. Ross hit .225 with 3 HRs and 13 RBI last year for Cincinnati and Boston in 142 at-bats in 60 games.

Summary

The Braves will now turn to signing a bat for the outfield, extending Chipper’s contract, and re-signing Will Ohman. Once that’s done, I’d say we’re set for this offseason. I don’t think we’ll see the Braves sign any more starting pitchers. Setup arms in the ‘pen will come via Campillo and our farm system. Think I missed anything? Made bad assumptions? Make a comment and we’ll have some discussion about it.

Ignoring The Bad

By the way, I’m ignoring everything that didn’t go right. Rather not talk about it – no reason to dwell on it!

If you think the Braves are done this offseason, it looks like they’re finally ready to play ball with the biggest pitcher left on the market and have a pretty decent rotation by the time September rolls around. Imagine Lowe, Jurrjens, Kawakami, Vazquez, and Hudson. We’d have Morton and Hanson, in the wings. I’d think that maybe Campillo goes back to the ‘pen this year as our long reliever. The Braves still need to add a bat to replace the hole left by Mark Teixeira. I pray to heaven it doesn’t involve Andruw Jones, as some suggest. If we can muster enough offense to make it to the postseason, we’ll have a mean rotation IF we land Lowe.

The Braves also signed Omar Infante to a two-year deal, with a team option for a third year. Omar was pretty good for us as a utility player last year. He hit .293 with 24 doubles and 40 RBIs.

Remaining shopping list:

• Big bat
• Sign Will Ohman
• Extend Chipper’s Contract

C’mon Braves, sign Lowe so we can be somewhat optimistic about the upcoming season. Mets fans, you can go sit on a tack.

I don’t really know what to say.  I am absolutely crushed by this news.  Smoltz has spent his entire big league career starting in 1988 in a Braves uniform.  Half the reason I’m a Braves fan is because of him (the other half is Dale Murphy, this is no secret to anyone).  I have nothing else to write, I just can’t believe we’ll be seeing John Smoltz come to The Ted this year in anything but a Braves uniform.  I’ll leave it at that for everyone to discuss.