]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/09/01/braves-benefit-more-than-most-from-september-call-ups/feed/ 2 http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/08/31/2010-braves-extreme-values/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/08/31/2010-braves-extreme-values/#comments Tue, 31 Aug 2010 17:53:45 +0000 Thomas http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=1855 Having three of the worst players in the National League would seemingly ruin most teams’ chances of making the playoffs, but not the Atlanta Braves’. While three of their opening day starters (four if you include Derek Lowe) have done their best to continue Atlanta’s postseason absence, three others have been amongst the best in the league. Here are six players, three on each end of the spectrum, that have had the greatest impact on the Braves’ season so far.

The Good

1) Brian McCann (4.9 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 6th in NL)

No one seemed too worried after Brian’s OBP dipped to .349 a season ago and with good reason. His eye problems are seemingly a thing of the past as he has produced a triple slash line of .281/.388./.484 so far this season. The plate discipline is back, and most defensive metrics say he has significantly improved his performance behind the plate as well.

2) Martin Prado (4.0 WAR, tied for 16th in NL)

Many Braves fans were happy to see Kelly Johnson go last off-season. While he has bounced back (in a big way) out in Arizona, Prado has all but matched his output in Atlanta. Although his bat looks better at second, he is clearly more comfortable playing third base, the silver lining of Chipper’s injury.

3) Jason Heyward (3.8 WAR, tied for 23rd in NL)

Undoubtedly the single most important upgrade from last year’s team was the promotion of Jason Heyward. The Braves’ right field, despite Matt Diaz’s best efforts, was a disaster last season. Everything totaled, Francoeur, Diaz, and Ryan Church combined for an OPS of .743 at the position. Heyward’s triple slash line of .278/.389/.475, however, has made the Braves forget about all that. Everyone knew he was going to be something special, just not this good this early.

The Bad

1) Troy Glaus (.4 WAR, 9th worst among all qualified NL players)

Troy’s second half has made May a distant memory, and April seem quite vivid. Bad legs seem to have been his undoing, and the Derrek Lee trade spelled the end of any significant playing time. There is a good chance he has started his last game as an Atlanta Brave.

The Ugly

1) Melky Cabrera (-.6 WAR, dead last among all qualified NL players)

Not much to say here. Francoeur plate discipline + softball power + shoddy glove = worse than a replacement level player. If Frank Wren has any sense, and I believe he has lots of it, Melky will be non-tendered this off season.

2) Nate McClouth (-1.3 WAR, dead last among ALL NL players)

He does not even have enough plate appearances to be qualified, yet he still tops the list for the worst offensive player in the National League. Unfortunately, I just wrote about one of his replacements; the other isn’t much better either. Regardless of what level he plays at next season, the Braves are on the hook to pay him $6.5 million. Oh, and they will have to pay another $1.25 million to buy him out for 2012 as well.

Here’s why Atlanta has the edge…

First of all, obviously, they’re already in first place, three full games up on the Phillies, who just suffered a four-game sweep AT HOME at the hands of the Astros. But beyond the standings, Atlanta has the easier schedule from here on out.

The Braves, owners of baseball’s best home record (44-17), have 20 home games remaining, compared to the Phillies’ 16 games left at home. Also, Atlanta will play only 3 more games this season against a quality team, other than the Phillies. They’ll play a three-game set vs the Cardinals next month at Turner Field. The Braves will not see a single comfortably-above-.500 team on the road for the remainder of this season.

The Phillies, conversely, are about to fly west for 3-game sets in San Diego and Los Angeles. To make that road trip even trip even less pleasant… rather than enjoying a scheduled off-day that was to immediately follow this 6-game west coast trip, the Phillies will instead fly to Denver to make up a game that was rained out at Coors Field earlier this year.

Oh, and one more thing to consider regarding the schedule… If the division race isn’t decided by the end of September, the Bravos have the edge there as well. The Phillies and Braves will wrap up the season with a 3-game set AT TURNER FIELD, October 1-3. That is the regular season equivalent, for the Braves, to having games 6 & 7 of a seven-game series on your home field.

As for the makeup of these two division rivals, the Phillies have compiled and impressive “big-3” at the top of their rotation (Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt). However, that trio is no more dangerous or effective than Atlanta’s trio of Hudson, Jurrjens and Hanson. And when you compare the bottom of each rotation and the bullpens of these two teams, it’s apparent that the Braves still have the advantage in the pitching department. On the other hand, the Phillies have more offensive thunder, when firing on all cylinders.

At this point, I don’t believe either team is clearly or substantially better than the other. But because the Braves already hold a 3-game advantage and have the easier schedule from this point forward, Phillies fans have good reason to watch the Wild Card race more closely than the NL East standings.

Having said all of that, Philadelphia is only 3 games back with 30+ games remaining. The Phillies are still very much in this thing, and this race is far from over. Pennant fever is back in Atlanta! There are roughly 5 weeks of baseball left in this 2010 season, and they should be a helluva lot of fun!

Throw in your 2 cents below! Think the Braves will seal the deal?

PS… find me on Twitter, @FriedBasBallATL

But since the All-Star break, Omar has been much more than just a valuable role player; he has been the Braves’ MVP. While filling in for Martin Prado and Chipper Jones, Infante has had the best stretch of his career. Of all National League players with at least 125 plate appearances since the break, only nine have posted a higher OPS than Infante’s mark of .957. There is also a good chance that the stretch is a result of improved skill rather than statistical variation (a.k.a. a “hot streak” or luck). In 205 PA prior to the break, Omar only drew 9 walks while striking out 39 times. But in his 133 PA since coming back from Anaheim, he has 8 walks compared to just 11 strikeouts. Although the walk rate has remained somewhat similar, his strikeout rate has plummeted over the past 34 games. It is quite possible that Omar’s ability to make contact has improved since becoming an everyday player. Whatever the reason, the change in strikeout rate is so drastic that it appears Omar has actually gotten better as the season has gone along.

The stretch also highlights the fact that Omar is having the best season of his career. A major reason for this is his batting average on balls in play which is a ridiculously high .393. Although this number is almost certainly unsustainable, there is reason to believe that he will continue to post a higher BABIP than his career average of .315. Several weeks ago I wrote that Jason Heyward needed to start hitting more fly balls. In Omar’s case the opposite has proven to be beneficial. For the season, 46% of his batted balls have been grounders compared to his career average of 37%. For someone who is not a power hitter such as Omar, this is a good thing. His homerun to fly ball rate, although still relatively low, is also the best it has been since he hit 16 big flies for Detroit back in 2004.

While I am not ready to confidently say Omar will continue to produce offensive numbers significantly better than those of the past two seasons, the Braves would be crazy to decline his 2011 club option worth $2.5 million. He has clearly improved since coming over from the American League, and there is no one else in the organization that can come close to replacing him. If he can continue to keep the strikeouts down, the Braves should be more than thrilled to start him at second base next season if Chipper decides to hang it up.

]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/08/18/the-impact-of-derrek-lee-to-atlanta/feed/ 2 http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/08/18/braves-to-move-for-derrek-lee-good-idea/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/08/18/braves-to-move-for-derrek-lee-good-idea/#comments Wed, 18 Aug 2010 15:57:40 +0000 Jonathan http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=1845 With every at-bat or play at first base, it’s quite apparent that Braves first baseman Troy Glaus is in a lot of pain and unable to play up to his full potential.  Gone are the days of May where he was hitting everything in sight, whether it was over the plate or not, and now, the best we can do is hope he doesn’t hit into a double play at the wrong time.  Rumors have begun circulating that the Braves are close to making a move for Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee.

In his day (he’s been around the league since 1997), Derrek Lee produced some solid numbers from the plate.  He’s had 9 20-HR seasons and is 5 shy of 1000 RBI in his career.  To date in 2010, he has 16 homers (4 of which came last weekend) and 56 RBI.  In the month of August, Lee is batting .306 and slugging .694 with 4 homers and 8 RBI.  By contrast, Glaus is hitting .208 and slugging .375 with two homers.

On the surface, it seems like a logical move.  It would give Glaus time to get healthier (although I doubt that can truly happen until the offseason) and would add a little more pop to the lineup.  The kicker however, is that Lee is injured as well.  His performance has been hampered by a bulging disc in his back, which, after receiving an injection for the pain, has him sidelined until today or tomorrow at least.

Lee would definitely be a rental, as he is a free agent at the end of the season, and would have to waive his no-trade cause, which he would likely do as Atlanta is contending for the NL East.  The rental issue doesn’t bother me however as he would serve as the next step in the bridge to getting Freddie Freeman into the majors (which I still maintain the  Braves don’t have to rush to do).  The question is, is sitting one injured first baseman for another injured first baseman the right thing to do.  With Troy’s performance as of late, I’d say it’s an option that we seriously need to consider.

Various sources are reporting that Chipper is out for the season with a torn ACL. He was already thinking about retiring after this season, and he could very well decide not to come back. Who knows? I know I don’t, but I find myself reflecting on his career and realizing how rare of a player Chipper was.

How many other sluggers of his caliber have stayed in one city their entire life? How many stars have restructured their contracts to provide more flexibility to their team? How many great third basemen have moved to left field so the team could add offense where it was most easily found? How many stars have thought about retiring when their career starts to decline instead of denying it and trying to eek it out for a few more years?

Yes, he was a bit of an arrogant ass when he was younger. But that’s tempered with age and experience now, and his love for the game remains.

Chipper is a rare player – not just because he’s perhaps the best switch hitter that’s ever played or hits homers against the Mets even when he’s slumping against everyone else, but because he bent over backwards for a team that he made his. Chipper’s poured his heart out for us Atlanta Braves fans, and that’s something I’ll never forget.

Now get the surgery out of the way and go rehab that knee, Chipper. Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of Mr. Larry Wayne Jones, Jr.

Bottom of 1st: J Heyward grounded into double play.
Bottom of 3rd: J Heyward grounded out to second.
Bottom of 5th: J Heyward grounded out to shortstop.
Bottom of 6th: J Heyward grounded into fielder’s choice to first.
Bottom of 8th: J Heyward grounded out to first.

While viewing this performance from Section 211 at the Ted, it dawned on me that Jason Heyward does in fact hit a lot of groundballs. Thanks to fangraphs.com’s “batted ball” data, I now know that my amateur scouting report was accurate. Of all the balls Heyward has put into play this season, a whopping 55% have been hit on the ground.

Only nine players have hit a higher percentage of groundballs this season, and the list isn’t pretty: (in order) Derek Jeter, Juan Pierre, Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, Denard Span, Skip Schumaker, Hunter Pence, Ryan Theriot.

However, none of these players have an OPS even close to Heyward’s current mark of .823. This is likely because of two reasons; the first of which is because Jason has a higher bat speed than any of the aforementioned players. Because of this, his grounders are hit “harder” and have a better chance of making it through holes in the infield. Likewise, his fly balls are hit deeper, increasing their chances of making it over the fence. Secondly, Jason has more plate discipline than anyone on the list as well, meaning that he draws more walks. Fortunately, groundball percentage is about the only thing Jason has in common with others on the list.

Regardless of the fact that he is clearly a better hitter than any of the aforementioned players, this is not a list that Jason wants to be on. Pitchers want Jason to hit the ball on the ground, and he is obliging them. In his last 207 plate appearances, he has hit only 1 homerun. Compare this to his first 185 plate appearances in which he hit 10. Remember those majestic bombs he hit back in April and May? They show he is capable of being the power hitter Braves fans yearn for, but he will have to develop into such. In over 1000 minor league plate appearances, Heyward only hit 29 long balls. An old scout’s adage tells us that power is the last tool to develop. Well Jason clearly has it; he just needs to use it by hitting the ball into the air more.

Now the question arises: what happens with Medlen’s rotation spot for the start that he’ll miss? Since he just won the fifth rotation spot from Kawakami, do we just let Kenshin back into the rotation? He has only pitched once since being taken out of the rotation – we don’t want to use him – and there are rumors that we might want him to accept a minor league assignment (though it might hurt our chances with signing future Japanese players). Or do we promote Mike Minor, the top pitching prospect at the AAA level.

Minor is having a great first full pro season – in 118 2/3 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, he’s posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 144K’s with only 44 BB’s. He’s part of the rotation of the future and has been starting regularly unlike Kawakami.

My plea to the Braves is thus: Please make Minor the fifth starter. Kawakami has had his chance and blew it – send him to AAA for some regular pitching and let Minor fill in on the back half of the rotation in the bigs.

Bring Minor to the Majors.

-Braves get Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth, and cash considerations reportedly worth around $2 million .

-Royals get Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez, minor league LHP Tim Collins

When evaluating a deadline move such as this there are three main points to analyze.

1) Did the team improve its chances of getting to the postseason/making it further into the playoffs? If so, by how much?

2) What did the team give up in the deal and was it worth it?

3) What are the financial ramifications from this trade in the coming years? Or in other words, does the trade affect Atlanta’s payroll in 2011 and beyond?

Of course the first two questions are subjective and can be answered in any number of ways. The third question attempts to answer if the trade restricts the organization’s ability to go out and sign free agents/draft picks in off-seasons to come.

1) Let’s start with the obvious. Replacing Jesse Chavez with Kyle Farnsworth is clearly an upgrade for the Atlanta pen. Of course we all remember an 18 inning game back in 2005 where Farnsworth gave up a game tying homerun to Brad Ausmus in the ninth, but he is clearly the better pitcher. The main point of debate centers around whether or not Rick Ankiel improves the Atlanta outfield, specifically in centerfield where he will be playing primarily. Simply put, is he better than Melky Cabrera/Gregor Blanco?

In Cabrera’s case it is not even close. He was a pretty awful hitter when Wren traded for him, and he seems to have gotten worse. Coming off of a career best season, in which he posted a pretty average .752 OPS (most likely thanks to Yankee Stadium), Melky has been nothing short of horrific at the plate this season for Atlanta. Neither are anything special defensively. UZR does give Melky the slight edge in centerfield defense but still shows that he is below average at fielding the position. Overall, Fangraphs calculates that Melky has been slightly worse than a replacement level player this season.

An argument could be made for Blanco over Ankiel, but that argument would likely overvalue his mere 66 plate appearances at the major league level this season. While Ankiel gets on base less often, his impressive power numbers make him more valuable to a Braves’ lineup that lacks pop and is currently 10th in NL slugging. Blanco has been much better defensively this season than in years past, but for his career has a UZR of exactly zero in CF, meaning that he is just average. Also, Blanco may have better speed but isn’t much of a base stealer. Ultimately it comes down to needs, and the Braves need power. Ankiel gives them an increase in that category.

The Braves got better but very marginally so. Bullpen depth helps, but Farnsworth may only add about twenty innings over the course of the next two months. Likewise, Ankiel is only a marginal upgrade over Blanco. Neither he nor Cabrera can hit lefties very well either, something the Braves’ lineup has struggled with. Either way the trade helps to counter the Oswalt move, slightly improving the teams’ chance of winning the NL East.

2) No tears will be shed over losing Jesse Chavez. Blanco may be missed by some, but he was already twenty-six years old and never showed the ability to be a valuable everyday starter in the major leagues. LHP Tim Collins is barely pushing 5’ 7’’, but he has been a strikeout machine in his minor league career. Minor league relievers, however, typically do not carry much value and giving Collins up to make the current team better (even barely) makes sense.

3) The $2 million sent to the Braves along with Ankiel and Farnsworth more than covers their 2011 option buyouts for next season. Ankiel’s option is a mutual one worth $6 million and will almost certainly be declined considering the Braves will have to pay Nate McLouth more than that next season as well. Farnsworth comes with a club option worth $5.25 million next season, and it will be interesting to see what Frank Wren decides to do with it. Either way, the trade does not restrict the Braves financially for 2011 and beyond.

This trade in no ways jeopardizes the Braves’ future while making the club at least somewhat better. If Ankiel can play passable defense in CF, the team will clearly be better off. If not, he should at least break even with his offense upgrade, and Farnsworth makes our bullpen stronger. The bottom line is that Wren did a good job helping the club when the market did not present him with a whole lot of options.

Now, let the debate begin.

Cody Ross was linked to the Braves yesterday but *supposedly* the Marlins have taken him off the table. They have been known to change their mind last minute and surprise people so we’ll have to keep watching this story line for some time. We’ll see what happens here.

Josh Willingham has been linked to the Braves as well, but the Nationals have said they won’t move both Adam Dunn and Willingham. I think the most recent word out of the White Sox is that they’re out on Dunn, and it doesn’t look like he’ll move. Is Willingham an option then? Who knows. Hard to tell at this point.

Lance Berkman was another name the Braves were linked to, but the Yankees landed him yesterday so he’s no longer an option.

One has to wonder if the potential injury to Martin Prado (inconclusive x-rays on his right pinky) will impact the team at all. If Prado has to sit out a few weeks, will the Braves feel they need to add a bat more urgently? He’s been the spark plug to the team so far this year. What happens if he’s out?

The bottom line is nobody but Frank Wren knows what the hell is going on today. Check back for updates. We’ll be following all the rumors and (hopefully) a deal for the Braves that makes sense.

]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/30/oswalt-to-phillies-will-the-braves-counter/feed/ 1 http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/29/what-roy-oswalt-to-the-phillies-could-mean-for-the-braves/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/29/what-roy-oswalt-to-the-phillies-could-mean-for-the-braves/#comments Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:24:54 +0000 Thomas http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=1825 Pending his approval, Roy Oswalt will be making 12 plus starts for the Phillies over the course of the next two months. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.com points out, this trade is an admission of guilt by GM Ruben Amaro for inexplicably trading Cliff Lee last off-season. The Lee trade left the team with a top heavy rotation that was hurt even further when it lost J.A. Happ to the disabled list after only two starts.

Following the Happ injury in April, the Phillies rotation looked like this: 1) Roy Halladay 2) Cole Hamels 3-5) Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton. To translate this into Braves lingo, they had a Maddux, a Glavine and then three Kenshin Kawakamis. Another comparable would be the Braves’ 2007 rotation which consisted of Hudson, Smoltz and then three or four Kenshin Kawakamis. That season there was an incredible amount of pressure on the games Huddy and Smoltz started, because losing them meant there could easily be a four or five game losing streak. Both of them stayed healthy all season and pitched very well, but the team could only win 84 games, good for third in the NL East.

The Phillies’ top two of Halladay and Hamels have been in a similar situation all year but have managed to lead the team to an impressive 55-46 record prior to the Oswalt trade. Unfortunately, adding the Astros’ ace to their staff significantly improves the Phillies’ chances at catching the Braves down the stretch. Oswalt, who will essentially be replacing the mediocre Jamie Moyer, has been very good this year, with his 8.37 K/9 ratio being the highest it has been since his rookie season.

The Phillies could potentially switch to a four man rotation at some point before the season is over. Doing so would eliminate yet another horrible starter from their rotation. This combined with the return of Utley and Victorino will make them a very dangerous team. The Braves still have a 3.5 game head start, but their chances at winning the division looked a whole lot better one week ago. At that point the lead was seven games and Oswalt was still in an Astros’ uniform. Six games remain between Atlanta and Philly including the three game set at Turner Field to end the season. As Billy Wagner predicted long ago, these three games just might determine who wins the NL East.

]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/28/final-countdown-to-the-trade-deadline/feed/ 0 http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/27/nate-mclouth-optioned-to-gwinnett/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2010/07/27/nate-mclouth-optioned-to-gwinnett/#comments Tue, 27 Jul 2010 20:52:16 +0000 Jonathan http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=1821 It appears that Nate McLouth’s days in Atlanta are done for the time being.  After going 1-for-15 in his five games back from the disabled list for a concussion sustained in a collision with Jason Heyward, the Braves front office has decided to give Nate more time in Gwinnett to figure things out.  They will likely continue to look for possible trade options for McLouth as the July 31st trade deadline approaches.

McLouth was held out of Sunday’s final game against the Marlins after failing to provide offensive production in the previous five games.  Large points of frustration with McLouth were a soft groundout with the bases loaded in late innings on Saturday and a game-ending double play in extra innings on Sunday.  Additionally, with runners in scoring position, Nate was 0-for-6 during the three game series with the Marlins.

Brent Clevlen has been activated from a rehab assignment and is expected to join the squad mid-game tonight.  Gregor Blanco, who was sent to Gwinnett, is required to spend 10 days in the minors before being eligible to be called up.  He will be eligible on July 31st.  In 58 at-bats in Atlanta this season, Blanco has hit .310, but the Braves front office has not yet decided if Blanco will end up back in Atlanta in the next week.  At this point, the Braves are still in search of the answer to a long-term solution in center field.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next for McLouth or the Braves as a whole in center field, but here’s wishing McLouth the best.  If we don’t see a move for a center fielder at the trade deadline, I’d love to see Gregor back in Atlanta ASAP.

In the season and a half that Ross has been in Atlanta, he has served as a stable backup for Brian McCann, hitting .272 with 38 RBI.  Additionally, this season, he has thrown out 7-of-15 baserunners and only has a single error.

Personally I’m thrilled with the signing as I think David Ross is the best backup catcher the Braves have had in awhile….don’t get me wrong, I loved Corky Miller…..wait no, I didn’t.  I don’t fear a game where McCann sits out and Ross has to play.  There’s power in the bat and solid defense that can be expected when he’s in the game.  I’ve seen some rumblings around the web about people saying McCann should move to first base and let Ross be a full-time catcher in the future.  I’m still not too sure what I think about that however.  As for the extension at hand….love it.  Time for the Braves to get back in the win column tonight against the Nationals.

Beyond centerfield there are very few areas, if any, where the Braves are likely to upgrade. The team seems content, and justifiably so, with a Diaz/Hinske platoon in left which would be the only other position where the Braves would conceivably add a bat. In an ideal world the Braves would be able to go out and handpick a centerfielder to trade for, but this is simply not the case. Their offense is, for the most part, set in stone unless they acquire Ross from the Marlins.

Wren may explore adding bullpen depth but not much else. It would have been interesting had the Braves entered the Dan Haren sweepstakes using one of Vizcaino, Teheran, or Delgado as the centerpiece. Although their rotation has been strong this year, Haren would have made it significantly better come playoff time despite his struggles this season. As I am writing this, it has been reported that the Angels have acquired him by packaging Joe Saunders with two “eh” prospects and a player to be named later who is supposedly the centerpiece. Atlanta could have matched this package easily; the question is do you think they should have attempted to improve their rotation or keep their stockpile of young pitching talent intact?

Yes, it was a hard-hit ball. Is he coming around? Maybe.

To me, it’s time to land another center fielder. While McLouth might come around and we may have moderate production out of the position the rest of the season, and I’m not OK with that.

The way this team is playing, I want to see us go out and get a player who can put some pop in the lineup. I want someone who is going to put us from playing pretty well in the NL East to the class of the NL East. I want to put the Phillies on notice that even if they trade for Oswalt they are going to have to play .800 ball to catch us. I want to be damn good. We’re already good. I want to be even better.

Here’s the thing – I’m against trading prospects for a star to “put us over the top” when we’re only hoping to make the playoffs. However, I am completely behind trading prospects for a star to make us the class of the National League.

Mark Bowman is reporting that the Braves may not be that interested in the Marlins’ Cody Ross. Others are reporting that the Fish are unlikely to move Ross. If you ask me, it sounds like Ross won’t be the next member of the Braves. I would like to see us make a *smart* move and land a center fielder who can give us the production we need from center field to have a potent lineup throughout the batting order.

Let’s go get Marlon Byrd ($5.5M in ’11 and $6.5M in ’12). Or hell, how about we sign Jermaine Dye? His power numbers would be nice and he’d definitely hit for more average than McLouth will. I’ll think on that more and maybe expound on it in another blog post soon.

Jason Heyward:  The guy is simply the rookie of the year.  There’s just no doubt about it.  When he is playing the way that he can, there is absolutely no stopping this kid.  Some people like to point to wunderkinds like Strasburg and say that he should get the RotY, but, let’s face it, no other rookie can do what Heyward can do, and as reliably, when he is healthy.  He can field (summon up his first game after the all-star break), he can run bases (any night when you see him go from first to third on a lazy single, or when he jacks second right from under catcher’s noses), and he‘s dynamite in the batter’s box (this series in particular — he’s reached base 9 out of 10 times).  In Heyward’s last five games, his OBP is a whopping .640, and all of which were multi-hit games.  He’s on fire, and I don’t see him slowing down any time soon.  Frank Wren needs to throw up a huge contract to Heyward ASAP.  Nail him down for ten-plus years.  I don’t ever want to see 22 on another team.

Martin Prado: His leadoff home run was just great.  He easily could have had another 3-hit game if it weren’t for the nice play by the pitcher in the third.  He went through a little slump at the beginning of the second half, but it looks like Prado is back where he should be.  Three hits tonight gets his average back up to .320 (instead of the lowly ghettos of the .310′s, of course), and still 15 hits above anyone else in the NL.  He could conceivably take half a month off and still be in the lead. Think Prado is going to ease off the gas though?  Oh no.  You know why?  Because he’s so clutch that the engine fell out.

Eric Hinske: We can’t talk about clutch without talking about Hinske.  He was the hero of the game for the Braves for all of a third of an inning before Conrad’s bomb.  He only had one hit, but he made it count, driving in runs 4 & 5, and playing a huge role in the Braves victory.

Jesse Chavez & Johnny Venters:  The bullpen shut down the Fins when we needed it badly.  Had it not been for these two guys (Chavez in particular! I never thought I’d say that.) it had the potential for another heartbreaking loss.  It just goes to show you the vast chasm that seperates these two teams.  Although the Braves had a bad night last night, our bullpen got it done, setting people down with relative ease.

And now for those guys that were struggling tonight…

Troy Glaus: The guy can’t buy a hit right now.  One month he puts up prodigious, player-of-the-month type numbers, the next, nothing.  I’m losing faith in our number five man; that’s a position we can’t be in if we’re going to contend for the pennant.  I’m not asking for June numbers, I’m just asking for something to feel good about, because right now, we’re not getting any kind of production from him.

Nate McLouth: I think one more bad game pretty much shuts the gate on Nate.  He’s 1-13 since returning to the line-up, and his batting average is lower than some of our pitchers, and he doesn’t even hit the ball hard.  I don’t know if it’s all in his head or what, but right now, McLouth is looking very much like a bust, but what do you do?  There aren’t a lot of options out there.  DeJesus is hurt.  Ross is batting a puny .146 this month.  Someone like Josh Willingham might be attainable, but at what price?  We don’t want to give the Nationals too much.  There’s questions aplenty that are all swirling around the drainpipe that is Nate McLouth.  In the end, I think you sit McLouth and let Hinske, Diaz, and Cabrera platoon left and center.  It’s not a perfect solution, but it’s the best we have right now.

I don’t want to end this in all this prognostication, so let me say that I think that we’re coming up against two more teams to round off this road trip that I think we have the ability to play very good and take some more series.  The first games against the Nats and the Reds should be the most interesting games of the series with the old vet, Hanson, taking on Strasburg, a boy that he has already beaten once this year — but this time, it’s on his own turf.  Then we will see two young bucs — Medlen and Cueto — start the Reds series off with a bang.  The next week should be a fun one for Braves fans.

The Braves took the lead in the bottom of the third last night, with four straight hits – including a two-run single by Chipper Jones and a two-run homer by Brian McCann. Tommy Hanson had surrendered two runs before that, and pitched into the seventh. The Braves took a 4-2 lead into the top of the ninth.

And then Wagner let one get away from him. He’s not a machine – but we’ll forgive a blown save here and there because of just how damn good he’s been. Kris Medlen took the loss in extras – the seventh pitcher the Braves sent to the mound last night. He’ll make his next start, I hear, and just skip a throwing session today.

We’ll drop a game here and there, and it’s not the end of the world. The goal here has always been to win series. We can do that tonight – we’re sending Huddy to the mound and he always puts us in position to win. Brush it off and go back out tonight and do what you do, boys – win.