As we begin this week I think it’s important for us to take a look back at the past 4 games our Atlanta Braves have played.  The four game series, which I’ve never been a fan of a four game series – just seems one too long, against the Arizona Diamondbacks was one that Braves Country can be happy about.  Our boys went 3 – 1 against a pretty good team out west.  Yes, they were a little banged up – but a win is a win and it doesn’t matter who you face.

There was so much to cover that just blew my mind.  For starters, no pun intended, our starting rotation was amazing.  A big knock against the Braves at the start of the year was the lack of innings the starters were accruing.  The bullpen’s taxation from 2011 can be attributed to the lack of managerial savvy of Fredi and also the large number of games where starters didn’t go past 5 innings.  That simply causes a great bullpen to get tired and sputter come the end of August and all of September.  That concern was something Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Tommy Hanson decided alleviate.  Going 8, 7.3, and 7, respectively, the ‘pen wasn’t relied on too much.  This was exactly what our staff needed.  Young guys to step up and push each other.  Brandon Beachy said in the post game interview after his start in game two, that he wanted to go out and try to match what Mike Minor did.  I’m sure Tommy Hanson didn’t want to feel left out, so he went out, and after giving up a run in the first and second, managed to sit down 13 Diamondbacks in a row before Venters and Kimbrel struck out each of their sides.

It also helped that the bats continued the streak they’ve been on.  There isn’t much need to bring in your 7^th, 8^th and 9^th inning men when you score an average of 9 runs a game during the 5-game winning streak the Braves were on.  Our second 5-game winning streak in 15 games for those of you keeping score.

Michael Bourn and Freddie Freeman have been on fire this past week.  They were, to simply put it, great.  Bourn was on base all the time it seemed.  His batting average for the last week was .464/.531/.536, 7 runs scored and 5 stolen bases.  That’s just creating havoc for opposing pitchers.   His OPS was 1.067.  For a guy with barely any power, that’s outrageous.

The more impressive part of our offense was our young first baseman, Freddie Freeman.  His slash line against the D-backs was .467/.500/.1.067.  The boy went on a tear out west.  He spoke about it in an interview after game two, that he really loves playing in front of his family and friends.  Freeman is a So Cal native and he had a strong contingent of Freeman faithful make the approx. 3-4 hour drive to see their native son put a wallop on the D-backs pitching staff.  He put a home run in the pool out in right center and went opposite field to push one into the left field seats.  An interesting note was that the damage done was all while Freddie occupied the 3-hole in the line up.  He did this even when Chipper was in the game for the 2^nd and 3^rd of the series.

As long as Freeman is contributing with his bat and continues to play great defense, I have no problem with him hitting in the usual spot reserved for the almost 40 year old Chipper Jones.

Starting tonight, our Braves take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Hopefully the Braves can continue their dominance at the plate and take advantage of the fact that the Dodgers two best starters, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, will not be pitching against us.

As always dear reader, pray for pitching, be proud of the tomahawk chop and if you need a smile, just remember when Sid slid.

Some other surprising notes are the Dodgers dominance. They are world-beaters right now. At the end of their first 10 games, they only lost one of them. Center fielder Matt Kemp is playing baseball like he’s in a video game with a slash line of .487/.523/1.026 which is pure insanity. The St. Louis Cardinals are not missing their slugger at all it seems. The loss of Albert Pujols to the Angels has not slowed down this hot team, fresh off the heels of receiving their 2011 World Series rings this week. Most would say they are one of the two best teams in the league.

There are some things we figured going into this season that seem to be on track. The Tigers are going to mash all season long with 1B Price Fielder and 3B Miguel Cabrera in the middle of an already good line up and dominant starting pitching lead by 2011 reigning AL Cy Young and MVP winner, Justin Verlander. Also, the Phillies are going to continue to struggle to score runs a good bit as the season moves on. The loss of second baseman Chase Utley and first baseman Ryan Howard for the first part of the season has confirmed what I thought would be the case. They are an old and relatively shallow ball club. Pitching will have to carry them as they continue to struggle to score runs. With the right side of the Phillies infield return time still up in the air, it’ll be fun to watch them struggle to put crooked numbers on the board.

Most importantly, our Atlanta Braves. The first four games of this season was the single worst start since the 1988 Braves started 0-4 (and were 0-10 before their first win). I, along with a large number or fans, was embarrassed at the sweep of our team by the hated Mets. On top of that, dropping a fourth in a row to the lowly Astros seemed to just be too much to bear. Considering the way we ended last season, losing 20 of 30 to miss the playoffs by one game, it appeared as if nothing had changed. Of course, the old man, Chipper Jones would not allow this to happen. He, in his final season of his career, has already had some great moments. Hitting a two-run shot in his first game back in Houston while playing amazing defense, off of a surgically repaired knee that was worked on three weeks prior, reminds us all how great of a ball player he actually is. The Braves went on to take the final two games from the Astros and complete the sweep against the Brewers at home to open Turner Field for the Braves faithful. Large crowds attended booing Ryan Braun for his involvement in the banned substance scandal and chopping those tomahawks so loud it’s all you could hear. There were so many great signs that we saw in the first series at home, Jason Heyward dominating, Chipper’s comeback homerun Sunday after missing the first two games, starting pitchers Mike Minor and Brandon Beachy going at least 7 innings, and timely hitting. The start of our second series against the Mets proved to be too much for Tommy Hanson as a hanging curve to Ike Davis, Met’s 1B, he deposited into the right field seats in game one undid him in a 6-1 loss. However, in game 2, the Braves brought out the hammer and trounced Johan Santana 9-3. Santana was chased after just recording four outs, his shortest start of his career.

After the evening up the three-game set with the Mets in the fourth series of the year, the Braves ended up with a winning record, 6-5 (as of Wednesday morning). Most fans have backed off the ledge and are now starting to take a deep breath and be reminded that this is a baseball season; you’re going to lose a fair number of games no matter what.

I look forward to watching our boys of summer as the weather gets hotter and the kids get out of school. So as always, dear reader, pray for pitching, be proud of the tomahawk chop, and if you need a smile, just remember when Sid slid.

The Atlanta Braves finished last season with an embarrassing 10-20 record and lost the last game of the regular season, missing the playoffs by one game.  Braves Country was lucky that the Boston Red Sox also collapsed in a similar fashion – which drew media attention and saved us from even more national embarrassment.

However dejected Braves fans felt at the end of the 2011 campaign, spring brings to us a feeling that all is possible.  Heck, even the Astros don’t have a losing record and right now and the Cubs have a shot at winning a title.  While some may look at the end of last season and the poor record in spring training thus far as bad omens, I believe we have a lot to look forward to.

Our starting pitching depth and, new hitting coach, Greg Walker’s approach offers exciting possibilities.  Especially the idea that Jason Heyward could bounce back to his 2010 healthy self and become the force we all want him to be.  No one anticipates Martin Prado to get a staph infection in both his legs again this year, which crippled his season and sapped his strength and endurance.  Second baseman Dan Uggla doesn’t look to hit sub .180 for the first half of the season and we have NL stolen base champion, Michael Bourn, for a full year.  Reigning NL Rookie of the year and outstanding closer, Craig Kimbrel, and runner up Freddie Freeman look to continue their impressive work dominating the 9^th and providing good defense with a high average, respectively.

Some others in Braves Country look for the negatives that we’ve seen so far.   Tim Hudson is on the mend with a back issue and for a 36 year old could signal the beginning of the end.  Chipper’s soon to be 40 year old knees only have so many at-bats left in them and rookies, Tyler Pastornicky and Anderton Simmons, are battling for the starting job.  Tyler was presumed to have the job all but sewn up, however his struggles at the plate and in the field have opened the door for Simmons.  Jair Jurrgens has struggled mightily this spring while getting adjusted to his newly added knee brace and doesn’t seem to have control over his pitches the way he used to.

All in all I truly believe that the Atlanta Braves have a lot going for them as April bears down upon us and the season’s start is right around the corner.  The aging Phillies and the bungle that is the New York Metropolitans, combined with the improved Nationals and Marlins, offer to us baseball fans what would appear to be the most competitive division in the majors.  As always, pray for pitching, be proud of the Chop, and if you need a smile – just remember when Sid slid.

Flint Huff is a guest columnist for The Citizen Sports Weekly

DOB: When you look at the way your roster shapes up, what would you like to see happen before the start of Spring Training?

FG: I think if the season starts right now, you feel pretty good about your roster. You really do…But with Christmas coming around the corner and you want to add another piece, it will be a big bat.

Translation: Our offense was so bad last year that I am going to start speaking in second person. If Santa Claus is real and listening right now, I WANT A POWER HITTING CORNER OUTFIELDER FOR CHRISTMAS.

DOB: Can you get that big bat you want without trading Jurrjens and/or Prado?

FG: I’m not looking to trade any of them. I’m just saying another bat would be nice. Somehow.

Translation: Good heavens, no (wink)! I would never consider trading one of my players, because those are my guys (another wink followed by elbow nudge and intense stare).

DOB: Chipper is the only old guy in the lineup. Does his situation add to the importance of Prado, given his role as Chipper’s backup at third base, in addition to playing left field?

FG: Yeah (talks about Chipper not playing as much)…Prado is a big piece for us. And Jurrjens in the rotation. I think sitting here, you hate to say you won’t trade anybody. We’re in position where we would trade somebody if it makes our team better.

Translation: Okay, so you know how I just said I don‘t want to trade one of my players? Well I lied. We can’t trade Prado, because Chipper may die any minute now. That leaves us with one choice. Do you think the Marlins will do Jurrjens for Mike Stanton?

DOB: You plan to go into the season with (Heyward) as your right fielder, playing every day?

FG: Yeah, I think so. Obviously we’ll see how spring training works out and all that kind of stuff, but I’m always the guy who says you’ve got to give people an opportunity.

Translation: I am utterly hopeless when it comes to evaluating talent. Rather than give our franchise’s most valuable asset every opportunity in the world to succeed, I am going to keep the door open for playing Jose Constanza over him. Even though Heyward produced one of the greatest seasons ever by a twenty year old, that career minor leaguer looks like he is really playing hard. Last year I rode his “hot hand” all the way to a .303/.339/.385 line. Not that I know that. All I know is that the kid plays hard and hit .300!

DOB: Any chance that Andruw Jones or Rafael Furcal, couple of ex-Braves, could be back?

FG: We haven’t spoken about those guys. Those are two ex-Braves and two good players, but we haven’t gotten to that point of speaking to those guys yet.

Translation: No. Those guys used to be good players, but they are pretty mediocre now. We probably won’t sign Jones and definitely won’t touch Furcal after what happened a couple of years ago.

DOB: Are you comfortable with Tyler Pastornicky, going with an inexperienced guy, you trust the player development staff and Frank (Wren) that he’s ready?

FG: Yeah (talks about getting a veteran backup)…I really like the kid’s makeup. He’s a baseball player and grew up around baseball. He’s got ability and can steal you some bases. Let’s give him an opportunity.

Translation: Hell no. We need someone else. The only positive thing I can say about him is that he plays baseball and, like 99.9% of all big leaguers, played baseball growing up. Oh, and he has some speed apparently so what the hell. I guess he can’t be worse than Alex Gonzalez.

On last Tuesday, ESPN’s Jim Bowden reported that the Tigers were interested in swapping Delmon Young for Prado. Not surprisingly, reports followed that the Braves’ front office said something to the extent of “no thanks”. While Young was once considered a top prospect, he is essentially a replacement level player. His above average power has been negated by a hacker’s approach at the plate and mediocre defense. While the Braves would love to add a right handed power hitter to their lineup, trading a valuable asset for Young makes no sense.

Any team would love to have Prado because of his above average bat and defensive versatility, but the Braves need him more than most. He provides valuable insurance incase either Uggla or Chipper, the Braves’ two highest paid position players, goes down with an injury, and he plays both positions better defensively than the respective starters. Ideally, the Braves will look to trade Jurrjens for a starting corner outfielder, because he is both more expensive and more expendable than Prado due to the organization’s pitching depth. Projected to earn around $4.5 million through arbitration next season, Prado should find more than enough playing time as a “super utility” player due to inevitable injuries and days off.

According to ESPN, the Braves have sent Derek Lowe to Cleveland for pitching prospect Chris Jones. The Braves will pay about $10 million of the $15 million that Lowe is owed in 2012. After going 9-17 in 2011, it’s a move the Braves had to make.

The Braves also picked up their option on Eric Hinske and declined their option on Nate McLouth for the 2012 season.

We’ll have more updates soon to help everyone fight through the offseason.

Diaz is signed through 2012 and is owed $2 million for next season.  The Pirates are also sending some cash to Atlanta to help offset his remaining salary this season.  The Braves made the trade before the deadline so that Diaz will be eligible to play for the Braves in the postseason.

Though in a little bit of a slump right now, I’m hoping Diaz can help fill some holes in the current offense.  Welcome back to Atlanta, MattyD!

The Braves are only averaging just over 3 runs a game in the last 10 games; that’s not enough to win you many ball games. What I have seen though is that it’s not due to a lack of hits and opportunities. In the last 4 games alone the braves are 2-2 but are averaging 11 hits a game and only 3 runs a game. If the Braves can continue to hit like they are now the runs will eventually show up.

This team is struggling, yes. This team is not playing up to their ability level, yes I agree. My only argument is that when any team loses their 3 and 4 hitters at the same time they are going to struggle. This is simply a time where the team is going to have to grind it out and do their best to put some wins on the board. All teams go through times like this in the course of a 162-game season. The Braves are about to go on a tear and they are going to get hot at the right time. I truly believe it. We just have to hope the other teams around us struggle a bit as well.

Braves fans, don’t sweat too much. We may be feeling the heat in more ways than just the insanely hot weather. This is not a team who is going to roll over and die. Look for this team to be fighting until the very last game….where we win the World Series.

This will add much needed depth to the lineup which I see looking like this (when or if ever healthy):

1. Michael Bourn
2. Martin Prado
3. Brian McCann
4. Chipper Jones
5. Freddie Freeman
6. Dan Uggla
7. Jason Heyward
8. Alex Gonzalez

This lineup becomes one of the best in baseball and I believe will perform like it. If Bourn comes in and does what he always has, he will set the table very well for the rest of the lineup. Fredi Gonzalez won’t even be able to mess up this lineup. I know it’s a couple weeks until we see what this ball club can really do but the bright side is that Brian McCann is getting some much needed rest that will help us down the stretch run.  This trade upgrades our team more than Carlos Beltran and HunterPence upgraded their respected teams.

But what else can this trade do for the team?

The Braves have really constructed this team very well. Everyone knows how talented our starting players are from the position players to the pitching staff but what most non-avid Braves fans will miss is how deep this team really is. All year this team has battled injury and struggles to only be picked up by many unsung heroes like David Ross, Eric Hinske, and Brooks Conrad. These guys are really what makes this team so dangerous. You know every time you see one of these guys walk up to the plate they are going to give you a great at bat. Like Bourn, their value goes past the on field statistics. Eric Hinske and David Ross are definite veteran guys who lead their team. From what you read, they are always there to encourage and uplift the team even in the faces of a hard loss. The depth of this team is extremely important to its success. The acquisition of Bourn makes this ball club deeper as well with Nate McLouth becoming the 4th OF.

A couple more trade thoughts.

Current reports seem to indicate as well that Frank Wren still wants to make the ball club even deeper with a right-handed bat to come off the bench or turn into a platoon partner. The challenge will be getting someone of quality now through the waiver wire. This really is the missing piece to the bench as the Braves woes vs. LHP is so dreadful having a guy who can come off the bench and put a spark into the lineup from time to time would be a big boost.

It seems the Braves don’t have the urgency to really go after a relief pitcher for the stretch run which obviously shows their confidence in Anthony Vavaro to hold down the fort until Peter Moylan can return from the disabled list and Arodys Vizcaino to prove if he is ready for the show.

The Astros land former star prospect center fielder Jordan Schafer (currently on the DL with a fractured hand), LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Paul Clemens, and RHP Juan Abreu. The Braves will receive just under $1M cash in the deal as well.

I’m thrilled. The Braves have said for some time they’re looking to stay away from trading Minor, Teheran, Vizcaino, and Delgado, and they did just that. Wren didn’t make the biggest splash, but he did make what I believe to be one of the more effective moves for this team. With Prado and Heyward locking down the corner spots (and Hinske and McLouth able to take a start in left with Chipper out and Prado playing third), a true center fielder is something the Braves needed.

Bourn fits that mold. The Braves have their first true speedy leadoff hitter since Rafael Furcal a few years ago and the Braves have center field locked down for a year and a half for the baseball equivalent of a few spare parts. Good luck in Houston, Jordan!

Welcome to Atlanta, Michael.

]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/29/trade-deadline-looms-for-braves/feed/ 8 http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/25/looking-ahead-to-the-next-few-weeks/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/25/looking-ahead-to-the-next-few-weeks/#comments Mon, 25 Jul 2011 19:18:17 +0000 Caleb http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=2225

Let’s forget about the past two series. One was at Coors Field, which is hell on any team. The other, Great American Ball Park, is small enough that traveling high school baseball teams regularly hit home run after home run while playing there (might be an exaggeration, but not much of one). As of Monday morning, the Braves are six games behind Philadelphia for the NL East lead and only four games ahead of Arizona for the Wild Card lead. It’s an easy time to look at the standings and determine that the Braves do not have a shot at overtaking the Phillies and that there is a good possibility that the Diamondbacks will overtake the Braves for the Wild Card position. However, this is a short-sided thought based on the past seven games at Coors and Great American.

The Braves have a great opportunity to make a decent run over the next three weeks or so. The next four opponents, in order, are the Pirates for four at home, the Marlins for three at home, the Nationals for three away, the Mets for three away, the Marlins for three away and returning home to three-game series with the woeful Cubs. Does this sound like a murderer’s row for the next few weeks? The Pirates, Marlins, Nationals and Mets are all hanging around the .500 mark, while the Cubs would gladly take a .500 record at the moment. The strongest of all of those teams should be the Pirates, but I am not entirely sold on them being a “good” team. Average is more realistic and an average team the Braves should beat two out of three times.

Let’s look at each series. The Braves swept a two-game series with the Pirates in May, so let’s assume they take three of four from the Pirates. Then they take two of three from the Marlins, Nationals, Mets, and Marlins again. Let’s be positive and assume they sweep the Cubs after returning home. So they win fourteen out of the nineteen for one hell of a nineteen game stretch.

The Phillies will face the Giants and Pirates at home, then will head to the Rockies, the Giants, head over to Dodger stadium and finish with the Nationals. The seven games with the Giants will be very tough, Coors Field is always a crap shoot, and the Dodgers have been playing better, as of late.

In those nineteen games, the Phillies should realistically win thirteen or fourteen, similar to the Braves. However, let’s break it down a bit further. The series with the Rockies could go either way, but let’s assume the Phillies win two of three. There are seven games with the Giants, with four of them at San Francisco. The Phillies take two of three in Philadelphia, but only win one out in San Francisco. The Phillies lost two of three from the Pirates in June and let’s assume the Pirates play well against them again, with the Phillies only winning one game. They finish up with the Dodgers and Nationals and win two of three in each series. So in the Phillies’ nineteen games, they only win ten of them.

I know these assumptions are biased, but I believe they are within a realistic realm. If the above games play out as assumed, the Braves will be only two games back with a month and a half of the season left.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume the Braves are three games back after the next nineteen games. It’s quite possible the Braves are healthy, a trade has been made and the offense is clicking. They take four of six from the Phillies meaning they need to pick up two games somewhere. Is this possible? Possible, but improbable nonetheless. Unless the Phillies start to exhibit some weaknesses that they have not shown as of yet.

Being two games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead would mean the Braves are securely in the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Actually making the playoffs is the difficult part. Once the Braves are in, winning the first series becomes a three-man rotation, and I would put their three best against any other team. Assuming everything plays out accordingly, the Phillies and Braves will meet in the NLCS. As it has been repeated lately, these two teams are scarily similar. The match-up would be fun to watch and would probably stretch to six or seven games.

But before I get stuck in the future, let’s just remind ourselves that the Braves have a favorable schedule coming up in the next three weeks and the team is getting healthy. Add into this mix a trade, Dan Uggla continuing his upward trend, and the return of Peter Moylan (hopefully), the last part of the season is going to be very fun to watch.

I know this is biased and not based too heavily in statistics. I just wanted to point out that with a few wins here for the Braves and a few losses there for the Phillies, the NL East is still within reach however unlikely it seems now.

The word “pence” is defined as multiple pennies, but just one “Pence” would enrich the Atlanta Braves’ pursuit of a World Series title.

As the trade deadline approaches, cyberspace and talk shows buzz with the rumor du jour. Wednesday, chatter concerning the Braves and their dire need for a right-handed injection of offense centered on Hunter Pence, the Houston Astros’ right fielder who finds himself currently mired on baseball’s worst team.

The Astros’ disastrous season is no fault of the 28-year-old, who is enjoying another stellar offensive campaign. The 6-foot-4, 220-pounder entered Thursday sixth in the National League in batting average (.316), eighth in doubles (24) and RBIs (61), and a perfect 7-for-7 in stolen-base attempts. With 11 home runs on the season, he would rank fourth on a Braves team that’s scuffled for runs all season.

Atlanta began play Thursday five games ahead of Arizona in the NL wild-card race, and 4 ½ games behind Philadelphia in the NL East. It’s nearly a given the Braves will be in the playoff hunt through September, but their hopes of playing deep into October may hinge on the ability to add one more stick to a lineup that has underachieved through most of 2011.

Here is a penny for your thoughts: Pence fits. He wouldn’t be a rental, not hitting free agency until after the 2013 season. He is arbitration eligible the next two years and figures to get a nice boost from the $6.9 million he’ll pull in for this season. Still, with the financial flexibility the Braves will enjoy this offseason, coughing up the $10 million or so Pence likely will command next season won’t be a problem.

Nate McLouth, who will not be back in Atlanta in 2012, is slated to earn $10.6 million next season (his deal will be bought out for $1.25 million). The Braves’ Double-A foreign-exchange student, Kenshin Kawakami, is in the final year of a three-year, $23-million deal and likewise will be off the books. Certainly the Braves will again try to move Derek Lowe in the offseason, the right-hander slated to earn $15 million in 2012.

The big question is what it would take to entice the Astros to deal Pence. Houston seeks to slash its $69 million payroll down to $60 million, so Pence can be had for the right package. And as we all know, the Braves have the young pitching to make just about any deal they want.

Any conversation surrounding Julio Teheran or Arodys Vizcaino should end with Frank Wren hanging up the phone. Randall Delgado? Perhaps he is untouchable as well, but maybe the depth of young pitching in Atlanta’s organization makes him a potential target. Lefty Mike Minor looks expendable given the youth of Atlanta’s rotation, the emergence of Brandon Beachy and the likely arrival of Teheran into the rotation by opening day next season, but being a southpaw amid a stable of talented right-handers may lead the Braves to keep the Vanderbilt product.

Options abound, and the Braves find themselves in a very intriguing position. They have plenty of great pitching at the major league level and a ton of talented young minor-league arms – not just the four mentioned above, but several other pitchers a notch below Teheran and Company. Atlanta can sit back and do nothing as July 31 passes, content to hope Dan Uggla’s good work the past three weeks and Jason Heyward’s strong game Thursday at Colorado are signs the offense finally will fire on all cylinders as the stretch drive commences.

Do nothing, and the Braves figure to be in the mix as September draws toward October. But the ring is the thing, and the price separating a trip to the playoffs and a World Series appearance just might be one Pence.

–30–

Follow me on Twitter: @bud006

Carlos Quentin/ Juan Pierre

Both Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe and Mark Bowman from Braves.com recently reported that the White Sox have been scouting Braves pitching and may look to exchange a bat for a major league ready pitcher. Cafardo mentioned Quentin as a possible match for Atlanta, but Bowman stated that the Braves are unlikely to target a corner outfielder. Assuming the team has no plans to send Chipper Jones to the DL upon Martin Prado’s return, then Quentin is not a match. With Prado and Heyward locked in at the corners, the Braves would only be able to upgrade in the outfield with a centerfielder. Bowman’s mention of Sox outfielder Juan Pierre as a possible target warrants projectile vomiting from anyone that cares about the Braves. Not only is Pierre a horrible hitter (.287 wOBA in 385 PA this season), but he cannot and has not played centerfield since 2009. God willing, the front office has no interest in either of these players, and these rumors are simply the result of unintelligent/lazy journalism.

Michael Bourn

Bourn should be the Braves’ primary trade target, and he appears to be obtainable. Not only do the Astros have the worst record in baseball this season, but their next taste of playoff contention appears to be many years down the road. Therefore, they should look to trade Bourn, who has one year left of arbitration, for someone that can help them win beyond 2012. From the Braves’ standpoint, Bourn would certainly provide them a significant upgrade in centerfield over Schafer or McLouth. Over the last two and a half seasons the Astros leadoff man has combined to produce 12.9 WAR by getting on base at a .348 clip, playing excellent defense, and being one of the best base runners in the game. If these two teams discuss a deal, it will likely center around Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy heading to Houston. In all likelihood the 2012 Braves’s rotation will not have room for both of these pitchers, so it makes sense to trade one in order to make this and next year’s team better.

J.J. Hardy

Hardy has reportedly been in contract extension talks with the Orioles, but if the two sides cannot reach a deal then Baltimore will look to trade their shortstop in the middle of his career year. He currently boasts a line of .289/.348/.520 this season and has always been a solid if not plus defender. Hardy would unquestionably provide an upgrade over the free swinging Alex Gonzalez by adding a little pop and patience to our lineup without sacrificing anything defensively. If extension talks fall through, the Braves should be first in line to kick the tires on Hardy and at least see what the Orioles are asking for him.

As I mentioned, the offense is finally starting to click. The pitchers, both starters and the bullpen, continue to bolster their status as the best in the league. The second half of the season is going to be wild, to say the least. As I write this, the Braves are up on the Rockies in the final game of the series. I am going to assume they win this game. WIth the Phillies off tonight, the Braves will be heading into a three-game series with the Phillies only two and a half games back. In all likeliehood, the Braves are not going to sweep the Phillies in the final series before the All-Star break. But how awesome is it that they are close enough to take over the lead in just one series?

The next three series after the break are with the Nationals (at home), the Rockies, and the Reds. The Braves should have a fully healthy team against the Nationals with Martin Prado returning and it will be interesting to see how the offense performs with him.  Those three series should not be that difficult, but Coors Field is always a question mark and the Reds are a top team in the central.

I am also interested in seeing the decision on whether Nate McLouth or Jordan Schafer will be in center field.  This might not even matter if Chipper Jones has surgery and Prado is moved to third. Chipper having surgery might be my preference. I like McLouth in left field and a healthy, rested Chipper at the end of the year would certainly help with the playoffs. My distaste for Schafer batting lead off has not dissipated, but I must admit, his defense has been great in center.

Ideally, once Prado returns, I would like to see a lineup of McLouth, Prado, McCann, Chipper, Heyward, Uggla, Freeman, and Gonzalez, in that order. The lineup decision was a bit tougher than expected. If McLouth returns to his hitting abilities before he was dropped to eighth, I do not know who to put in the lead-off spot. Prado would do in a pinch, but there is just no one for the Braves that can be used in the position.

Now on to some tidbits about the opening day rotation. The chart below shows the average runs per start the Braves produce while the starting pitcher is in the game. The other four categories are self-explanatory. Zero-run starts, are starts that the offense did not provide a single run while the starting pitcher remained in the game.

I am surprised how low the runs per start for Lowe are. It always seems the offense does not score when he is pitching, but 1.83 runs per game is significantly lower than anyone else. Beachy has not had the run support, but he is receiving over half a run of offense more than Lowe. It should not be surprising that Jurrjens has pitched the second most innings. It is impressive that he is only two innings behind Hudson with two fewer appearances. With Tim Hudson having six zero run starts, there is no mystery to why his record is not as good as it should be with his peripherals.

The graphs below are just a visual representation of the runs scored during each starter’s duration each game alone with the average runs scored during his appearance. I thought it might be nice to add some color to the place.

*All data used is from Fangraphs.com and through the game on July 4, 2011.

]]> http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/08/the-braves-roll-into-philly/feed/ 0 http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/01/heywards-struggles-and-did-you-know/ http://www.bravesblast.com/2011/07/01/heywards-struggles-and-did-you-know/#comments Fri, 01 Jul 2011 13:43:35 +0000 Caleb http://www.bravesblast.com/?p=2200 I had hoped to write this article about the resurgence of Jason Heyward and how his return to the lineup has improved a languid Braves offense. Unfortunately, Heyward has only shown glimpses of his offensive prowess, with no consistency whatsoever.

Is a lingering injury still causing the lack of production? Does he just need time to readjust? I have no idea what is causing his lack of production, though I will show the statistics that point out how his approach has differed from last year and how that affects his offensive ability greatly. In addition, I will provide a “did you know” type fact on eleven players. Please note that all statistics are through June 28.

Let’s starts with Jason Heyward. Heyward has apparently forgotten how to hit baseballs into the air. If you see just a few of his games, you know it seems that a majority of the balls he makes contact with end up rolling to the second baseman for an easy 4-3. Take a look at his spray chart for the year.

There are two pressing issues demonstrated by the spray chart, in addition to the glaring number of balls hit for outs to the right side. The first issue is the significant number of balls that do not leave the infield. This is evidenced by one unbelievable statistic. Heyward’s infield fly ball percentage (IFFB%) is an astounding 20.5% compared to last year’s 8.4%. One-fifth of the balls Heyward puts into play are fly balls in the infield. Think about how ridiculous that statistic is? It is no wonder he has played so poorly thus far.

The second issue is Heyward’s inability to hit towards left field. A majority of his hits have been to center or right fields, which indicates he is pulling the ball (hello 4-3). I am not entirely sure if his injuries have caused him to change his swing or his approach at the plate or what exactly. I am dubious of Larry Parrish’s ability to correct the issue.

The chart does not fully identify a few other disturbing trends. Heyward’s line drive percentage (LD%) has dropped form 17.8% last year to 13.3% this year. A line drive has a greater probability of turning into a hit than either a ground ball or fly ball. In regards to ground balls, which he has hit so frequently, his BABIP is .265 compared to .335 last year. Some people will contribute this to “luck.” I contribute it to teams adjusting to Heyward’s tendency to pull the ball with defensive shifts.

Heyward’s discipline at the plate has been up and down. He is more aggressive, which I doubt is a positive for him right now. Heyward is swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone 28.7% of the time compared to 24.2% last year, while swinging at 67% inside the strike zone compared to 58% last year. Overall, he is swinging at 44.5% of all pitches up from 39.4% last year. This increases likelihood of contact on bad pitches, though his contact rate has dropped from 79.1% to 75.5%, which means more swinging strikes.This aggressiveness could stem from adjustments (Parrish’s doings?), pressing, if he is still injured or who knows what.

There is one positive. Heyward’s strikeout perctange (K%) has remained similar, while his walk percentage (BB%) declines slightly, but is not significant enough to elevate itself to a reason for his struggles in 2011.

I am hopeful that Heyward is just adjusting back to his swing from last year after dealing with the nagging injuries from this year. It will be interesting to see over the next few weeks how he performs. I believe the All-Star break will give him so time to rest, adjust and come back swinging a more consistent bat. He has shown glimpses of it lately, so I assume with a break, he will be able to further focus on adjustments.

Did You Know?

Below is an interesting (I think) tidbit about each of the regular eight hitters, minus Heyward, plus Brooks Conrad, Jordan Schafer, Eric Hinkse and David Ross. The rankings I use are based only on those eleven, plus Heyward.

Brian McCann: He is leading the Braves with a fWAR of 3.2. Prado is second with a 1.7. Speaking of…

Martin Prado: Prado’s strikeout percentage is 11.7% (K%), which is the lowest of the twelve. Making contact does contribute to his team-leading GIDPs.

Alex Gonzalez: He has the most plate appearances by anyone with 312, which makes his BB% of 4.2 (the lowest on the team) even more frustrating.

David Ross: He has a wOBA of .399 and an ISO of .212. Yes, the Braves should be using him to pinch hit more.

Eric Hinske: In only 167 plate appearances, Hinske has eight homeruns.

Jordan Schafer: The Braves lead-off hitter has an OBP of .299 which is the third lowest.

Brooks Conrad: A team-high 40.4 K%, but a healthy ISO of .255. It is either a homerun or a strikeout for the “Raw Dog”.

Nate McLouth: He has an OBP of .339 which is second (for a starter) to McCann’s. And somehow he is still batting eighth or ninth.

Freddie Freeman: He has a BABIP of .327, second only to McCann’s .330. Neither of which do I believe are sustainable.

Dan Uggla: On the reverse end of the BABIP spectrum, Uggla has a BABIP of .188. Grounding balls into the dirt at every at-bat is not helping him break out of his half-of-a-season slump.

I will leave everyone with this question. There has been plenty of talk around about trading Jair Jurrjens. What do you think? Would a Jurrjens for Curtis Granderson trade be alright with you or is there some attachement to Jurrjens that the Braves should continue to pursue?

Let’s start with the NL West.

The results are not entirely surprising. Arizona has been playing the best baseball of those five teams recently. San Francisco’s loss of Buster Posey will dramatically affect their offensive output and, more than likely, their pitching output. Colorado seems to always hang around and be in contention towards the end of the year and the prediction parallels that statement. With just one run separating the two, it is a toss-up on which team wins the division.

The NL Central is the closest race with three teams separated by three games. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals respond the next six to eight weeks without Albert Pujols. With Pujols having a sub-par year, I believe the Cardinals can stay within striking distance until he returns. This is especially true if Lance Berkman can continue to provide some power.

Cincinnati has played well, and if the Cardinals do struggle without Pujols, I can easily see this team stringing together a few series wins and pulling away from Cardinals and Brewers.

I do not see Milwaukee competing with those two for the rest of the year, but with an injury here or there to Cincinnati and Milwaukee finally healthy, there is a slight possibility for the Brewers to test the Reds to the end of the season.

The NL East appears to be the easiest to predict. A majority of analysts predicted that the Phillies and the Braves would finish first and second. I’m surprised at how easily the Braves will win the wild card race. I was expecting it to come down to the wire (which I’m sure it will), even in the formula. A four-win lead is not something I am even willing to predict now.

The Phillies have played exceedingly well considering the injuries they have had to endure. I have no reason to doubt their ability to play at this high of a level throughout the rest of the season. Their offense should continue to play at a high-level and of course their pitching staff should still be un-hittable.

However, I am dubious of the Braves continuing as they are. The pitching will continue to be excellent, of that I have very little doubt. What about the offense though? Even as awful as the offense has been, the Braves are still predicted to win 91 games. Thank you pitching staff. What happens if Uggla starts hitting .250 and his home run total trends towards thirty for the year? Heyward is predicted to return to last year’s form at some point this year and Prado should be ready to contribute as soon as the infection is knocked out. What does this offense look like in a few weeks with a healthy lineup and an effective Uggla?  Is the team still on pace for 91 wins or is it on pace for 95?

The four playoff teams will consist of NL East winner Philadelphia, NL Central winner Cincinnati,  NL West winner Arizona, and the wild card winner, Atlanta. The Phillies will face off against the Diamondbacks with the Braves will face the Reds. The NLCS will have the Phillies and Braves squaring off. I am too biased to make and actual prediction on that game, so I’ll just leave it at that.

What do you think? Will the offense turn around? Will the Phillies continue to dominate? With nice games remaining with the Phillies, what do you think the Braves’ record will be against them for the remainder of the season?

The chart below will be used throughout the rest of the article. The following definitions are a quick refresh:

PA – Plate appearances
wOBA – Weighted on-base average
wRC+ – Weighted runs created
Bsr – Baserunning; Ultimate Base Running statistic used by Fangraphs
Spd – “…Stolen Base Percentage, Frequency of Stolen Base Attempts, Percentage of Triples, and Runs Scored Percentage.” (Source)
fWAR – Fangraphs wins above replacement

*Data used from Fangraphs and is through the game on June 15, 2011.

Let’s start with a positive. The left fielders in the Braves organization have done well this far into the season. The majority of the time in left field has been split between Prado and Hinske, with fWAR of 2.4, which ranks fourth in the MLB. However, right fielders and center fielders have a fWAR of 0.8 which ranks twenty-first and twenty-second, respectively in the MLB. The total of 3.3 fWAR for the entire outfield ranks seventeenth.

It is no surprise that the outfield has performed poorly. It was never going to be a strength of this Braves team. But what lineup would be the best of the current crop of players?

Left field is Prado’s once he returns from the disabled list (assuming he is not playing third base). He has played well and there is no reason to think that he would not when he returns. Eric Hinske has been the main reserve to replace Prado. Hinske has played adequately in left, but still quite a ways from Prado.

Right field has been barren ground for the Braves this year. Heyward has struggled through injuries, but one assumes he’ll return to form after a few games of being reacquainted with the diamond. Right field reserves have consisted mainly of Hinske and Mather. Hinske has played as a replacement-level player in right. He does not have the range or arm strength to be a significant contributor. Where does one being with Joe Mather, who is playing below a replacement-level player? I am still not entirely sure why he is still on the roster. If Heyward spends more significant time on the disabled list, someone else must be brought in to play right field.

Now onto the most perplexing situation. Who should play center field? Neither McLouth nor Schafer have played particularly well. Assuming Frank Wren does not make an acquisition of another outfielder, which one should Atlanta utilize?

I, falsely, hypothesized that the answer would be simple and straight-forward. The Braves have made their intentions public that they would like Schafer to spend an entire year in AAA, primarily to see how he develops through an (hopefully) injury-free year. With McLouth’s disabled-list stint, Schafer was brought in to fill the void. If you ask most casual Braves observers, they will, more than likely, praise Schafer on his speed, his defense and his new approach at the plate. Without a doubt, they will say he should still be roaming center field after McLouth’s rehab games are completed.

I do not believe this should be the case. Yes, Schafer has a higher fWAR (mainly because of his defensive prowess), but he is lower than McClouth in wRC+ and wOBA. The Braves’ defense is quite alright if we are deciding on whether we need more offensive output or defense output at the moment. Runs need to be scored.  Furthermore, I am wary of Schafer’s new approach at the plate. His low strikeout ratio and high walk ratio are not sustainable for the course of the season.

By default, I end up with the conclusion that Nate McLouth should continue to play center field. This allows for Schafer to continue to develop in AAA, which would hopefully aid in fielding a team for next season. McLouth’s positive will be creating more runs than Schafer for the Braves. I do not think the defensive differences are significant enough to voice support in having Schafer start over McLouth. Are the Braves going to send down another high-profile, highly-paid player to AAA?

Having McLouth in center field is not desirable or ideal, but it is the best option at the moment until Frank Wren decides he would like to add another person to the mix.

As a side note, I’d like to recommend a book this week, and maybe more books in weeks to come. I just finished re-reading Moneyball by Michael Lewis and it is a better book with every read. It’s a great look at the Oakland A’s and Billy Beane. Coincidentally enough, the trailer for the movie coming out in September hit the internet on Thursday. Check it out if you have not seen it already.