Jair Jurrjens Optioned to AAA Gwinnett

As reported by Atlanta Braves beat writer for the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Braves RHP Jair Jurrjens has been optioned to triple-A after last night’s loss to the Dodgers.  He’s 0-2 and hasn’t looked good at all this year or even during Spring Training.  Updates and reactions to come as the day goes on.

Reaction of the D-Backs Series, 3-1

Hello again faithful Braves Blast readers.

As we begin this week I think it’s important for us to take a look back at the past 4 games our Atlanta Braves have played.  The four game series, which I’ve never been a fan of a four game series – just seems one too long, against the Arizona Diamondbacks was one that Braves Country can be happy about.  Our boys went 3 – 1 against a pretty good team out west.  Yes, they were a little banged up – but a win is a win and it doesn’t matter who you face.

There was so much to cover that just blew my mind.  For starters, no pun intended, our starting rotation was amazing.  A big knock against the Braves at the start of the year was the lack of innings the starters were accruing.  The bullpen’s taxation from 2011 can be attributed to the lack of managerial savvy of Fredi and also the large number of games where starters didn’t go past 5 innings.  That simply causes a great bullpen to get tired and sputter come the end of August and all of September.  That concern was something Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Tommy Hanson decided alleviate.  Going 8, 7.3, and 7, respectively, the ‘pen wasn’t relied on too much.  This was exactly what our staff needed.  Young guys to step up and push each other.  Brandon Beachy said in the post game interview after his start in game two, that he wanted to go out and try to match what Mike Minor did.  I’m sure Tommy Hanson didn’t want to feel left out, so he went out, and after giving up a run in the first and second, managed to sit down 13 Diamondbacks in a row before Venters and Kimbrel struck out each of their sides.

It also helped that the bats continued the streak they’ve been on.  There isn’t much need to bring in your 7^th, 8^th and 9^th inning men when you score an average of 9 runs a game during the 5-game winning streak the Braves were on.  Our second 5-game winning streak in 15 games for those of you keeping score.

Michael Bourn and Freddie Freeman have been on fire this past week.  They were, to simply put it, great.  Bourn was on base all the time it seemed.  His batting average for the last week was .464/.531/.536, 7 runs scored and 5 stolen bases.  That’s just creating havoc for opposing pitchers.   His OPS was 1.067.  For a guy with barely any power, that’s outrageous.

The more impressive part of our offense was our young first baseman, Freddie Freeman.  His slash line against the D-backs was .467/.500/.1.067.  The boy went on a tear out west.  He spoke about it in an interview after game two, that he really loves playing in front of his family and friends.  Freeman is a So Cal native and he had a strong contingent of Freeman faithful make the approx. 3-4 hour drive to see their native son put a wallop on the D-backs pitching staff.  He put a home run in the pool out in right center and went opposite field to push one into the left field seats.  An interesting note was that the damage done was all while Freddie occupied the 3-hole in the line up.  He did this even when Chipper was in the game for the 2^nd and 3^rd of the series.

As long as Freeman is contributing with his bat and continues to play great defense, I have no problem with him hitting in the usual spot reserved for the almost 40 year old Chipper Jones.

Starting tonight, our Braves take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Hopefully the Braves can continue their dominance at the plate and take advantage of the fact that the Dodgers two best starters, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, will not be pitching against us.

As always dear reader, pray for pitching, be proud of the tomahawk chop and if you need a smile, just remember when Sid slid.

Looking into the Crystal Ball: Predictions for the Rest of the Year

The season is 46% completed, so it is well past time to start making predictions on the finishing order of the National League. The previous statement is completely sarcastic (still need to find that sarcasm font), however I do think a significant amount of the season has been played, enough so that we should, by now, have a clearer picture of how teams will continue to play and how the season should finish. Using the Pythagoren W-L formula from Baseball-Reference, I am going to predict how the final season standings will look. As a note, current Pythagorean W-L records are within 2 games of actual wins and losses through the games on June 21, except for the Giants who statistically “should” have four less wins and the Astros who “should” have three more wins. With the calculations this close to the actual records, I feel confident the formula will provide a reasonably accurate prediction. As with all predictions, mine will probably be wrong. If the Braves go on a tear and win the NL East, I will happily eat crow.

Let’s start with the NL West.

The results are not entirely surprising. Arizona has been playing the best baseball of those five teams recently. San Francisco’s loss of Buster Posey will dramatically affect their offensive output and, more than likely, their pitching output. Colorado seems to always hang around and be in contention towards the end of the year and the prediction parallels that statement. With just one run separating the two, it is a toss-up on which team wins the division.

The NL Central is the closest race with three teams separated by three games. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals respond the next six to eight weeks without Albert Pujols. With Pujols having a sub-par year, I believe the Cardinals can stay within striking distance until he returns. This is especially true if Lance Berkman can continue to provide some power.

Cincinnati has played well, and if the Cardinals do struggle without Pujols, I can easily see this team stringing together a few series wins and pulling away from Cardinals and Brewers.

I do not see Milwaukee competing with those two for the rest of the year, but with an injury here or there to Cincinnati and Milwaukee finally healthy, there is a slight possibility for the Brewers to test the Reds to the end of the season.

The NL East appears to be the easiest to predict. A majority of analysts predicted that the Phillies and the Braves would finish first and second. I’m surprised at how easily the Braves will win the wild card race. I was expecting it to come down to the wire (which I’m sure it will), even in the formula. A four-win lead is not something I am even willing to predict now.

The Phillies have played exceedingly well considering the injuries they have had to endure. I have no reason to doubt their ability to play at this high of a level throughout the rest of the season. Their offense should continue to play at a high-level and of course their pitching staff should still be un-hittable.

However, I am dubious of the Braves continuing as they are. The pitching will continue to be excellent, of that I have very little doubt. What about the offense though? Even as awful as the offense has been, the Braves are still predicted to win 91 games. Thank you pitching staff. What happens if Uggla starts hitting .250 and his home run total trends towards thirty for the year? Heyward is predicted to return to last year’s form at some point this year and Prado should be ready to contribute as soon as the infection is knocked out. What does this offense look like in a few weeks with a healthy lineup and an effective Uggla?  Is the team still on pace for 91 wins or is it on pace for 95?

The four playoff teams will consist of NL East winner Philadelphia, NL Central winner Cincinnati,  NL West winner Arizona, and the wild card winner, Atlanta. The Phillies will face off against the Diamondbacks with the Braves will face the Reds. The NLCS will have the Phillies and Braves squaring off. I am too biased to make and actual prediction on that game, so I’ll just leave it at that.

What do you think? Will the offense turn around? Will the Phillies continue to dominate? With nice games remaining with the Phillies, what do you think the Braves’ record will be against them for the remainder of the season?

Jonny Venters and the Cy Young Award

There has been enough talk about the negatives with the Braves to last a while, so let’s take a more positive approach; Jonny Venters and his chances to win the Cy Young award.

There have only been nine relievers to win the award and all nine have been considered closers, so Venters already has a disadvantage. Voters like numbers, and easily defined numbers at that. A save is an easier number for voters to recognize and associate with dominance, ignoring the various issues with it and the other statistics that could better highlight dominance..  With Venters not having the closer role, obviously his saves will be no where near the nine reliever winners. Will voters recognize that he is one hell of a pitcher without racking up saves? I think they might, but he’ll have to be outstanding in other statistics to compensate for the voters’ tendencies.  It is important to note Craig Kimbrel’s struggles of late. If Venters does receive more time closing in the future, this could further bolster his candidancy.

Let’s take a look at how he compares. The first line of the table is the average of each statistic for the nine previous winners. The second line is Venters’s statistics through June 8. The third line is an updated projection by ESPN.

*As usual, data is gleaned from Baseball-Reference and ESPN.

Obviously, the nine relievers who won the Cy Young award are damn good at their jobs. As mentioned previously, Venters cannot compete on saves. Unless he and Kimbrel split time in the closer role, he’ll have a fraction of the average. In comparison to the other averages, he seems to meet or exceed them. However, before going any further, we must recognize that there is a significant possibility that Venters does not continue on his torrid pace.
With almost 40% of the season completed, for the sake of brevity, let’s assume ESPN is spot-on with their projection (it won’t happen, but it’s nice to dream). With an ERA and WHIP so minuscule and a high number of innings pitched, I do not see how he could not be considered for the award. If his ERA is below 1.00 and especially below 0.50, he should be a definite front-runner for the award. One has to take into account his bWAR should be higher than average, the number of games he pitched in will be higher than average, and his record will be better than average by quite a margin. The only below average statistic besides number of saves is his SO/BB ratio, which is not significantly below. The issue then comes into play of his competition in 2011, not just the prior relievers.

For the majority of the years when the reliever won the Cy Young, there was not a dominate starting pitcher to compete against. This year could be similar, though I doubt it. To begin with, Venters has competition from two of his own, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.  Jurrjens has been stellar since his return from the disabled list and Hanson continues to improve with each outing.  This is ignoring Josh Johnson, who had the lowest ERA (Jurrjens was second) before being placed on the disabled list and perennial contender Roy Halladay. Or any other starting pitcher that continues to pitch well, accumulate innings, and a low ERA.

In summary, Venters has to continue to operate at an extremely high level just to be considered for the award. To win it, there cannot be a dominant starting pitcher and/or his ERA must remain below 1.00 for voters to recognize the incredible season he will have.

As a side note, while doing research I looked at Dennis Eckersley’s career, specifically his 1992 Cy Young award season. I was seven during that season, so I’ve never spent any time looking at his statistics or his career. At seven, I was more interested in being a Ghostbuster one day (sadly, that is not what I’m doing right now).  What’s even more impressive is his 1990 campaign. His ERA was 0.61 in 73.1 innings with a .614 WHIP and 18.25 K/BB ratio. I wish I had been paying closer attention to baseball then. It would be interesting to hear from anyone who watched those seasons of dominance by Eckersley and compare it to the dominance of Venters’s season so far. I assume watching Eckersley is similar to what we are watching with Venters. Let’s just hope it ends for Venters as well as it did for Eckersley in 1992.

Martin Prado: A Look at First Pitches and Overall Offense

 

Obviously, he doesn’t swing at most of the first pitches in an at-bat.  Of the 17 he has swung at, only 7 have been in play. Of those 7, 6 have been outs. That’s not exactly a high percentage, so maybe it is best that Prado not swing at the first pitch. I know, it’s small sample size, but maybe the first pitch is a mental act for him.  Maybe it settles him into the pitch sequence by taking the first pitch.

Since Prado, for the majority of his plate appearances, is pretty much satisfied on having a 1-0 or 0-1 count, what happens with the next pitch if he is 0-1?  If he does swing, he is highly selective. Evidenced by the graphic below, Prado will rarely swing at anything outside of the strike zone.

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How about 1-0? He is, more than likely, taking the pitch again with a take to swing ratio of approximately 2:1. And if he actually swings, he is even more selective.  Of the 28 or so pitches he swings at on a 1-0 count, only 7 are outside of the strike zone, and all 7 are within a foot or so of the strike zone.

Does it matter if he takes the first pitch, no matter if it is a strike? On 1-0 counts, Prado is batting .315 with a wOBA of .396 and on 0-1 counts Prado is batting .296 with a wOBA .321. Obviously he will be a better hitter with a 1-0 count, but the difference is not a great chasm.

With the first pitch already past Prado and into the mitt, let’s look at his overall offense this year. All rankings are NL only.  In addition, please note that Prado also leads the NL in games played, at bats, and plate appearances so he has had more opportunities than his competitors.

As of 5/19 he is tied for second with hits at 57, 2 behind Jose Reyes. He is tied for 10th with 11 doubles, but only 3 back of the lead (none other than Chipper Jones), tied for fourth in total bases with 86 only 8 behind Ryan Braun, and surprisingly enough for a lead-off hitter, he is tied for 7th with 28 RBIs, 7 behind Howard and Berkman.

Glaringly, he also leads the league in outs made at 153, nine more than Chris Young and ten more than Dan Uggla.  Why such a high number of outs? Mainly because of Prado’s second-place number of 10 GIDPs, three behind Albert Pujols (and the opporutnities provided by leading the NL in games played, at bats, and plate appearances).  Most lead-off hitters do not have the opportunity for a GIDP because the lower lineup hitters are usually not on base. With the Braves this year, the 7th and 8th-place hitters are doing well, hence Prado’s high RBI and GIDP situation because of the number of opportunities he as for either to occur. He is making contact 89.5% of the time overall when he swings, and if he swings at a pitch in the strike zone, the number increases to 96.1%.  This amounts to a lot of batted balls in play, increasing the likelihood for an RBI and conversely a GIDP.

What about his plate discipline overall? He is swinging at 39.8% of pitches thrown, which is about his career average, but he is swinging at 29.3% of the pitches outside of the strike zone and 51.3% inside the strike zones, significantly above and below his career averages. Though with a higher percentage of swings at pitches outside of the zone, his strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career numbers, so he must be making contact with these pitches. With higher contact, there’s a greater chance of grounding into the dreaded double play.

As the calendar turned to May, Prado has picked up his offensive numbers significantly. The table below lists a few of his impressive May stats compared to  March/April. I would be perfectly fine if his May numbers continue throughout the year.  Unlikely, but one can hope.

A Closer Look at Defense

Despite Standings, Braves & Phillies’ Performance Nearly Identical

The Braves lead the NL in ERA (2.94). Not far behind are the Phillies with a 3.03 ERA.

The Braves have scored 4.2 runs per game thus far. The Phillies… 4.6 per game.

The Braves run differential is +38 (third-best in baseball).  The Phillies differential… +41 (second-best)

But the similarities don’t stop there. In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington points out the similarities in the way these two teams have played vs quality teams, the way each team has beaten up on cellar dwellers… and the role schedule strength has played in the early season standings. Give us your thoughts in the comments section below.

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Download the audio.

Is Dan Uggla a Slow Starter?

Chipper Out For Season

In 1995 a rookie third baseman with an infectious grin and a hot bat helped the Braves win the World Series. Since then, Chipper has slowed up a bit but still loves the game, still kills the Mets every time he can, and is the lifeblood of the Atlanta Braves. Tuesday night we saw a brilliant defensive play at third base – and sadly that might be the last play we see from Chipper.

Various sources are reporting that Chipper is out for the season with a torn ACL. He was already thinking about retiring after this season, and he could very well decide not to come back. Who knows? I know I don’t, but I find myself reflecting on his career and realizing how rare of a player Chipper was.

How many other sluggers of his caliber have stayed in one city their entire life? How many stars have restructured their contracts to provide more flexibility to their team? How many great third basemen have moved to left field so the team could add offense where it was most easily found? How many stars have thought about retiring when their career starts to decline instead of denying it and trying to eek it out for a few more years?

Yes, he was a bit of an arrogant ass when he was younger. But that’s tempered with age and experience now, and his love for the game remains.

Chipper is a rare player – not just because he’s perhaps the best switch hitter that’s ever played or hits homers against the Mets even when he’s slumping against everyone else, but because he bent over backwards for a team that he made his. Chipper’s poured his heart out for us Atlanta Braves fans, and that’s something I’ll never forget.

Now get the surgery out of the way and go rehab that knee, Chipper. Hopefully we haven’t seen the last of Mr. Larry Wayne Jones, Jr.

Time To Land A Center Fielder

If you watched the Atlanta Braves play the Florida Marlins this weekend, you saw Nate McLouth have several big at-bats when put in context of his future with the Braves. The latest – with the bases loaded in the top of the 11th – ended with a double play.

Yes, it was a hard-hit ball. Is he coming around? Maybe.

To me, it’s time to land another center fielder. While McLouth might come around and we may have moderate production out of the position the rest of the season, and I’m not OK with that.

The way this team is playing, I want to see us go out and get a player who can put some pop in the lineup. I want someone who is going to put us from playing pretty well in the NL East to the class of the NL East. I want to put the Phillies on notice that even if they trade for Oswalt they are going to have to play .800 ball to catch us. I want to be damn good. We’re already good. I want to be even better.

Here’s the thing – I’m against trading prospects for a star to “put us over the top” when we’re only hoping to make the playoffs. However, I am completely behind trading prospects for a star to make us the class of the National League.

Mark Bowman is reporting that the Braves may not be that interested in the Marlins’ Cody Ross. Others are reporting that the Fish are unlikely to move Ross. If you ask me, it sounds like Ross won’t be the next member of the Braves. I would like to see us make a *smart* move and land a center fielder who can give us the production we need from center field to have a potent lineup throughout the batting order.

Let’s go get Marlon Byrd ($5.5M in ’11 and $6.5M in ’12). Or hell, how about we sign Jermaine Dye? His power numbers would be nice and he’d definitely hit for more average than McLouth will. I’ll think on that more and maybe expound on it in another blog post soon.

Jurrjens’ Resurgent In Braves’ Win

Jair Jurrjens returned to the Atlanta Braves’ rotation yesterday rested and ready to do battle against the Washington Nationals. In five-plus innings, Jurrjens struck out six and allowed one run (thanks to the relief work of Peter Moylan) and knocked in the go-ahead run as the Braves took the rubber game of the series and won 4-1.

Jurrjens’ admitted to being nervous before the start after two months on the Disabled List because of a hamstring injury, but showed none of it on the mound. His fake bunt and slash RBI single to left field almost took out Ryan Zimmerman on its way to left field.

As our own Kent Covington has pointed out, Jurrjens’ hamstring injury was a blessing in disguise. In Spring Training, Jurrjens battled an inflamed shoulder and elbow. The two months on the bench gave his shoulder and elbow time to recover that simply wasn’t happening before the injury, when his fastballs were routinely in the high 80s. Last night, Jurrjens’ fastball was what Kent calls “resting” in the low 90s – indicating Jurrjens is likely not experiencing the arm issues he was before his DL stint. The other hidden blessing of Jurrjens’ injury was of course the rise of Kris Medlen as the best 5th starter candidate on the team.

If Jurrjens can stay healthy the rest of the season and be as effective as he was last night, his return from the DL will become the equivalent of pulling off a blockbuster trade for another ace. Jurrjens is probably our number two or three pitcher in this rotation, and with his return, our rotation is stronger than it was with Kawakami in Jurrjens’ spot.

Atlanta Braves, Tim Hudson Tackle Stephen Strasburg 5-0

The hype surrounding the Washington Nationals phenom pitcher Stephen Strasburg is absolutely insane – and most of it is earned. But he’s hittable, and beatable.

The bottom line yesterday was Tim Hudson. Through seven innings of ball, Hudson struck out six, picked off one, walked three, and gave up a total of five hits. His extremely effective sinking two-seamer led to twelve groundouts – and only one fly out. Hudson showed that he’s back in ace form last night – as the nation watched expecting such a performance from the opposing pitcher.

Strasburg was almost as good. Through six innings he held the Braves’ offense scoreless. Nats manager Jim Riggleman almost pinch-hit for Strasburg when his spot in the order came up in the bottom of the sixth (someone came out on deck for Strasburg but was pulled back) and Strasburg came back out to pitch the seventh inning. Right now I’ll bet he wishes he hadn’t. Following a leadoff walk to Chipper (his 46th of the season), the Braves loaded the bases with no outs (thanks to an error) and tattooed WonderBoy for four runs (three earned). They then tacked on another unearned run.

Hustler of the night: Gregor Blanco, who surprised everybody with a bunt down the first base line that the pitcher couldn’t field cleanly for an RBI comes in second to Tim Hudson, who was absolutely ace-like last night.

Slacker of the evening: In the first inning, Melky Cabrera roped a double to left. Chipper then knocked a fly ball to deep left and Melky got caught somewhere between second and third. Had he tagged up, he could have scored when McCann singled to left. Instead, Melky’s slow self got caught trying to score from second to end the inning.

Strasburg Effect: 9601 walkup tickets were sold yesterday and a total of 21,608 tickets were sold since Strasburg’s previous start. The Braves’ franchise thanks Strasburg for coming to Atlanta, selling tickets, and then giving up the loss to improve the Bravos’ home record to 27-8.

Tags: Atlanta Braves, Gregor Blanco, Melky Cabrera, Stephen Strasburg, Tim Hudson, Washington Nationals
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