Braves Trade Kotchman for Adam LaRoche

Adam LaRoche is coming home. LaRoche, who was just earlier this month traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox, has been swapped straight up for Casey Kotchman, it appears. If you’re wondering how this trade stacks up, it’s about a straight up deal, if that. Casey Kotchman hits for a higher average and has better defense, but LaRoche hits for more power and knocks in more runs. But he strikes out more than twice as much. Yes, seriously.

That said, the Braves want power. They want a little more pop in their lineup and LaRoche gives them that. He has to work on keeping the strikeouts down (he’s whiffed 83 times already this year, compared to Kotchman’s 28). LaRoche does walk a bit more, too.

The bottom line is that the Braves think LaRoche is a better fit and jumped on the opportunity to bring him back home. When he was with us before, he struck out less. He now gets to play with his old buds and hopefully provide some punch to the back of our lineup, which isn’t looking shabby now. Here’s a guestimated lineup, assuming everyone is healthy:

McLouth, Prado/Johnson, Chipper, McCann, Anderson, Escobar, Church/Diaz, LaRoche. Having someone on pace to hit around 20 homeruns is not a bad person to have in the 8 hole – especially if the guys before him are on base enough to give him RBI opportunities. Sure, he’s only hitting .248, but I’m choosing to stay on the positive side of this trade. I’ll leave the negative to someone else.

Kudos to Wren and Cox for going out and making a move that they believe makes this team better. They’ve been right so many times in the past when it looks like a wash – why should now be any different?

Braves Look To Sweep World Champ Phillies

Before today’s game starts at 3PM eastern, the Phillies will recieve their world series rings. But the Phillies haven’t played like defending World Champions in the first two games of the series – which the Braves both won as they outscored the Phils 8-1. Interestingly enough – only one defending world series team has scored fewer runs in their first two games.

Javier Vazquez and the Braves hope that the Phillies’ slumbering lumber (it rhymed, I had to do it) doesn’t awake for today’s game. Vazquez will be facing Joe Blanton, who is considerably younger than the aging Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers the Braves faced in the first two games. Vazquez is typically a fly ball pitcher – so it’ll be interesting to see how Citizens Bank Ballpark handles the Phillies’ bats and Vazquez’s style today.

Join us in this thread for some in-line game commentary and general chattiness. Feel free to jump in and offer your opinion or comment on the goings-on! Jonathan will be game-threading it and Colin will join as he is able while in and out of class this afternoon. Bring out the brooms!

Braves Baseball Is Back!

It’s far too late for me to write a game recap (forgive me, I was in Phoenix last night watching the game from a crappy hotel room) – but I do want to throw together some thoughts I had last night during the game. Please feel free to add your own, argue with mine, or just sit there and read this complacently before moving on to another website.

Derek Lowe Is Solid

He’s not going to wow us every night with heaters – he’s not the typical power pitcher ace most people think of – but he’s a very solid, methodical pitcher who is going to give us quality start after quality start. And when he’s on – like he was last night – he can be very, very good.

Francoeur Will Be Back

You saw Francoeur’s line drive home run last night – he’s going to hit the ball hard night after night this year. Once he gets more used to his stance, we’ll see more power forthcoming – but I’ll take the Francoeur we saw last night. That said, he needs to work on his throw from the right field corner to third. He’s got a reputation to keep.

Jordan Schafer Is Fast

Did you see how fast he cleared the bases after his homerun? What about when he almost ran over Kelly Johnson who was taking a couple steps back to field a fly ball in short right center? The guy has legs. What a night for his first game – a single, an intentional walk and finally a strikeout that made him look silly. I think we’ll see some good stuff from Jordan this year – I’m certainly looking forward to it.

The Braves Looked Good

Lowe pitched well. Schafer showed us a little bit of what he can do. Francoeur looks good. But let’s not forget Chipper – who did what Chipper does – stroking balls comfortably the other way. Yunel almost knocked a homer of his own. Kotchman showed us some defense. McCann crushed a ball that almost landed in another state. Gonzo came out of the bullpen with (a little too much) energy – but once he gets that under control he’ll be the dominant closer he is. When all was said and done, Lowe had an 8 inning, two-hit performance and the Braves beat the Phillies 4-1.

For the first time this season, New York Mets fans cheered for the Braves. And when the Mets played today, Braves fans cheered for the Reds. It’s baseball season, folks. It’s back, and so are the Braves. Now we just have to prove that to the rest of the baseball.

Abreu or Dunn? (Or Swisher/Nady?)

Whom should the Braves pursue and sign? Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu?

Both would fit in well and fill the need (a bat providing a little bit of power in the outfield). That said, there are a couple of other options – being Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, both of whom we’d have to trade for (and send people to the Yankees, no less). And you ask, what about Andruw Jones? Is he still an option? Today I attempt to answer all of those questions (and more).

Overall, I think that Abreu fits the bill best. What’s the bill? An outfielder with a powerful bat that can play one season in our outfield before we’re absolutely swamped with the next wave of young Braves prospects to the point where we’d be stupid to pay someone else to play outfield. Abreu is older – he can fill the need without costing too much – and he’s most likely to be cool with a one year contract.

Dunn flat out costs too much. He’s asking $14M, and though some people think he could be grabbed for $10M/year, I think he’s more likely to get a multi-year deal. Sure, he’s more powerful (40 HR his last 5 seasons),  but we flat out don’t have the money for Dunn. Dunn and Done. I just am not going to give him any more consideration – even at $10M we can’t afford him.

Nady just signed a one year, $6.55M deal with the Yankees – so the Braves would have to trade for him AND pay his salary – something I don’t see us doing with an outfielder like Abreu on the free agent market. For a little less money than Nady, we can get someone with very comparable numbers – a couple more homers and doubles, sure, but fewer RBIs. Nady would give us a little bit of flexibility as he plays first base too, but we’re not looking for a first baseman.

Nick Swisher comes with a more long-term commitment than the Braves are looking for right now. He makes $5.3M this year, $6.75M next, and $9M in 2011. Why do that when in three years we could have potentially an outfield of Francoeur, Schafer, and Heyward? I just don’t see us trading for a player that would be around that long – not to mention Swisher is coming off a season where he hit .219 with 25 HRs. Yikes – we don’t need another Andruw Jones.

Similarly, we don’t need Andruw Jones himself. Andruw won’t take a minor league contract, both he and Boras have indicated – and even if we give him a minimum salary contract, there’s no guarantee we’ll see him fight his way onto the roster. I’d point out that bringing him back this year seems like it’d be a lot like bringing back Javy Lopez last year. May bring more people out to Spring Training games, but is that really the point?

I think that we’re most likely to see Abreu in Atlanta, but what do I know? Argue me wrong

Burnett Offered Contract By Braves

The Braves made an offer to free agent pitcher A.J. Burnett today, believed to be for four years and in the ballpark of $16 million a year. The offer is also believed to have a fifth year option if he stays healthy enough to pitch a certain number of innings.

Burnett won 18 games with the Jays last year and led the American League in strikeouts. Frank Wren confirmed the offer had been extended to Burnett – who is probably the best free agent pitcher on the market other than C.C. Sabathia, who the Braves are not making a move for.

The Yankees are expected to make an offer soon – but they were waiting to see how much cash the Braves were willing to throw his way first. He’s receiving plenty of attention, and I’m not sure whether or not the Braves have a chance at landing him. I’d guess that Wren put together an offer he feels will be competitive, as we’re not going to just magically land great pitching without giving something up in return. I’m not holding my breath, though, as we rarely win bidding wars with major free agents.

Come to Atlanta, A.J. We have Bobby Cox, Chipper Jones, and a giant cow standing over left field. Not to mention the Varsity, a big fish tank, and friendly fans that’ll show up for games on weekends.

What do you think will happen? Do we land Burnett or not?

Welcome To Atlanta, Casey

Welcome to Atlanta, Casey Kotchman.  You’re our new first baseman, and I think you’ll like it here in Atlanta, where the sweet tea flows like water and “Coke” applies to any soft drink.

This is the home of Bobby Cox.  Chipper Jones.  John Smoltz.  John Schuerholz.

This is the home of winning.  This is a team that’s used to winning and may seem a little disoriented after selling at the trade deadline for the first time in many players’ careers.  We’re not used to not making the playoffs – and there’s a hunger for it here.

There’s a lot of young talent on this team, and I think you’ll fit right in. McCann is a great catcher, Francoeur shows flashes of brilliance, Escobar is a promising shortstop (add extra padding to your glove – he has a cannon), and there are tons of outfield prospects heading our way from the minors.

Bobby will always have your back.  He’ll get ejected for you once or twice if he has to.  He’ll never badmouth you to the media, and he’ll always be yelling encouraging things at you from the dugout.

The fans will like you if you’re friendly.  Hitting well helps that process, but frankly, they want another magnetic personality like Francoeur, McCann, Chipper, Smoltzie, or even Escobar.  Play your cards right and you’ll soon have your own special fan section named something like “Kotchman’s Yachtmen” or something.  We promise it’ll rhyme. We like good young players.

Take some time to look at the people who have played for this organization.  Sit down with Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper, and Terry Pendleton, hear about the old times.  Watch the video of the most remembered play by a firstbaseman in Atlanta’s history – and try to always remember to run faster than Sid.

The future is bright here.  Spirits will be a little dampened when you show up today because this group is used to winning – and that Teixeira guy was a fan and clubhouse favorite.  This group is used to seeing wins on that scoreboard and used to being at the top of the division.  We have some young pitching prospects that are dynamite, and we have a core to build around.  Chipper will always lend help if you ask him – he’s a good guy and fun to be around.  And watch out for Tim Hudson – when he gets back from Alabama he’ll probably organize some sort of prank with you in mind.  Oh, and let Jeff Francoeur take you to the Varsity.  Just don’t get any of the season long slump on you.

Settle in.  Walk around Turner Field and take a look at the retired numbers high above left field.  By the time the end of the season is here, optimism for next year will spring eternal.

We’re glad to have you – and we’re looking forward to the next few years.  Casey Kotchman, welcome to Atlanta – where the players play.

Casey Kotchman was acquired for Mark Teixeira last night from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  In 100 games this year, he’s batting .287 with 12 HRs and 54 RBIs.  He has an OBP of .327 and hits a few doubles, but not many triples.  He’s excellent defensively – only two errors this year for a .998 fielding percentage.  Fans, we think you’ll like him.  If you’re at the stadium soon, give him a hearty Atlanta welcome.

Bullpen Holding Up Well

Back in February, I wrote a post called “5 Keys to 2008 Bullpen Success” and identified five points I thought would be crucial to have a successful bullpen.  Let’s see how the bullpen has done compared to those five points.

#1 – Rafael Soriano is lights out as closer.
#2 – Peter Moylan eats up innings – and stays effective.
#3 – Will Ohman fills the left-handed setup role.
#4 – The emergence of an effective long-reliever.
#5 – The healthy return of Blaine Boyer and Mike Gonzalez.

Well, I got three out of five right.  Ohman has been great, and Boyer and Gonzalez have been healthy, but Soriano hasn’t seen much time and Moylan is out recovering from Tommy John surgery.

And yet the Braves’ bullpen is one of the best in the NL – we have the third best ERA (3.22) and the best Batting Average Against (or BAA at .224).  We’ve also give up the third fewest runs in the NL.  Our BAA is second only to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

This is thanks in no small part to Will Ohman, Blaine Boyer, and Manny Acosta.  For the crap we give Bobby for over-using Acosta, Manny is a really good pitcher when he’s not overused.  The return of Mike Gonzalez has been crucial to a stable back end of the ‘pen, and we should see that get even stronger as Rafael Soriano nears his return.

As we head into the second half of the season, our bullpen has to continue to impress to give us a chance for our hitting to win us some games.  Based on what we’ve seen so far, I’d say we’re in a good spot and on a good track.

Who’s the most indispensable arm in the bullpen so far?

- Colin

Edit: You just can’t make this stuff up…It seems Mike Hampton tweaked his hamstring after 2 IP in his latest rehab start, you just have to feel for the guy. He gave up one home run, no word on the severity of his injury yet. More details later.

Edit2: He tweaked his groin in the first inning and pitched a second, still no word on the severity, but said his super-surgically repaired arm felt great.

NL East Review: Braves

I figured this would be a good time to get the review in, what with it being an off-day and all. Let me start off by saying I made a mistake earlier, I should not have said the Muts would be fourth in the division. After watching this team play the past couple of weeks, and with the state they are in right, I would be pleasantly surprised if we finished above where we are right now. To be honest, I feel like this team has regressed instead of progressed.

Who would have thought that Andruw’s absence would have been such a downgrade in power numbers over the past year. It was no surprise we weren’t getting much out of left field, we didn’t last year in terms of slugging and homers. Yeah, Andruw still hit 26 homers and surprisingly had 94 RBI, but about HALF of his at-bats were with runners on and 170 of his 570 at-bats had them in scoring position. Ridiculous, this season, we can’t get guys on, guys aren’t getting over and no one’s driving anyone in.

Yeah, we have the second highest run differential in the East, but about 90% of that is thanks to the ridiculous consistency we are getting from our pitching. How much better would we have been last year with a guy like Campillo (Campillo, btw, is hitting .222, same as Andruw last year, he may have had 90 RBIs batting in the position Andruw did in our line up) or if Reyes didn’t walk every second batter he faced?

2007: Keep in mind,  before you read these stats, these numbers are with Craig Wilson’s 58 at-bats (.172), Scott Thorman’s 287 at-bats (.216), Chris Woodward’s 136 at-bats (.199) and Ryan Langerhans’ 44 at-bats (just three hits in those at-bats, THREE! Julio Franco had that many in ONE game last year). All of those numbers right there are about an entire person’s average for a season, that’s 525 at-bats and 102 hits…seriously those are real numbers, that’s a .194 batting average between three guys. Lots of what-ifs surrounding last year’s team.

In 2007, the Braves finished third in the NL in batting average (.275), and scored the third most number of runs with 810. One of the reasons they were able to do so well was clutch hitting. Guys like Frenchy had ridiculous numbers in the clutch, but we’ll get to those later. With runners on at all, Atlanta hit .284…that went up with runners in scoring position to .291. They hit just .265 with runners and scoring position and two outs, but that was second in the league behind Pittsburgh (.267).

However, last season, just as they do this season, the Braves did hit poorly in close and late situations. Those situations, as described by The Language of Baseball are “situations in a baseball game in the seventh or later inning with the any of the following conditions: score tied. one team leading by a run, or with the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck.”

In those instances, the Braves came in eighth at .257 with only 112 runs. Compare that to St. Louis who led the league with a .313 batting average and Houston and Philly who both scored 141 runs in those situations.

Fast forward to this 2008, Braves are down two guys that were stalwarts on the field in at least the past two seasons: Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones since 1997. The Braves, after 92 games, are ninth in the league in runs scored (405, Chicago is tops at 487), yet third in batting average(.263, Chicago is tops at .282)…kind of makes you wonder. Read more »

10 Reasons To Throw In The Towel

Yesterday we looked at 10 Reasons To Pull Out The Stops and go for broke in a quest to make the playoffs.  Today is time to look at the opposite side of the coin – with nearly an even split in our “Should we trade Mark Teixeira” poll, it’s clear fan opinion is split. Without further ado – 10 Reasons To Throw In The Towel.

1. A Mark Teixeira trade would bring in young talent to build into the next few years.
2. The entire outfield has been a bit of an offensive disappointment with Kotsay being the hot spot.
3. The Phillies are rumored to be looking for ace-quality pitching talent.
4. We’ve had 9 different starting pitchers, and Charlie Morton has as many starts as John Smoltz.
5. The Braves going on a winning streak seems synonymous with Mike Hampton and his trip back to starting big league games.
6. There is practically no winning record on the road.
7. We’ve been starting Greg Norton in left field.
8. John Smoltz will be back next year if he has anything to say about it.
9. We’re too bogged down with big contracts on the DL ($37M) to make any legitimate moves for talent that would put us in serious contention (Hampton – 15M, Smoltz – 14M, Glavine – 8M).
10. All of our starting position players except Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann have missed time due to injuries.  To boot, three of our starting pitchers are on the DL and at least two of those are done for the year.

There ya go – 10 Reasons To Throw In The Towel.  Should we be done with the year?  Speak up – I know 43% of you (at time of writing) think we should trade Tex.

Please jump in and comment and critique my thoughts – I’m sure I left some out and made up others in a poor attempt to be witty.  Speak up especially if you want to throw in the towel this season.

NL East: The Big Picture

Here’s the big picture in the NL East right now:

Florida Marlins: Can they hold it together? Nobody expected to see these guys in first this far into the season.  I think even the Marlins are surprised.  That hasn’t kept them from acting like they belong in first.  Anchored offensively by Uggla, Hermida, and Ramirez, the Marlins have come out to score this year – currently ranked 10th in the league with runs scored.  The rotation has been solid as well – only six different pitchers have started games this year.  The Marlins recently picked up Jacque Jones to shore up their outfield after he was released by the Tigers.  But if the Tigers can afford to release him, will he help?  The biggest question remains: can the Marlins keep it up?

Atlanta Braves: Sure, the Braves can win at home, but they have to be able to win on the road or nothing will come of it. The Braves have a rock solid offense led by the mighty Chipper Jones, but they’ve had some injury issues on their pitching staff – Smoltz is moving to the bullpen, Rafael Soriano has spent significant time on the DL, but they’ll get those two plus Mike Gonzalez back from the DL here soon. The question – will they trade for another starter? Not if Jorge Campillo can keep up his Greg Maddux impression (and get rid of some pesky blisters).

Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies are shadowing the Braves as they both stalk the Marlins.  Their offense has been good but hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for more than a game or two at a time, and past Cole Hamels their other starters have ERAs at or above 4.37.  Brett Myers has dropped his last four starts, and Adam Eaton is still winless.  If the Phillies’ starters can get their acts together, this is a much more dangerous team – already they’re fourth in the NL with 26 quality starts – but they have potential for much more.  On the other hand, their bullpen has been great – lowing the team ERA to a 5th best 3.98.  The Phillies could come together to be a very dangerous team.

New York Mets: The Mets’ manager Willie Randolph is under fire for his team’s poor play. And the Mets have had poor play as of late. They’re now in fourth place struggling to beat decent teams. The team is oft-injured. Ryan Church likes concussions, Moises Alou caught Mike Hampton syndrome, and Marlon Anderson pulled up lame. And that’s just the last series in Atlanta. Pedro comes back soon, but will he really help? Johan Santana hasn’t been the savior he was billed as, either. This team has got to start playing ball if they want to hang it at the top of the division.

Washington Nationals:  The Nationals are just chilling out in the NL East basement, 7.5 games out of first with a .420 winning percentage.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NL, ranking third to last in runs scored, second to last in OBP and OPS, and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Their pitching staff is better, but not by much, ranked 12/16 in ERA and 13/16 in Batting Average Against.  This is likely something we see continued for most of the season.

What do you see happening?  Can the Marlins hold it together?  Will the Braves start winning on the road?  Can the Phillies fire on all cylinders?  Are the Mets and Willie Randolph doomed to oblivion?

Mother’s Day Game Postponed

Due to the continuing rain in Pittsburgh, the Braves/Pirates game today has been postponed and rescheduled as part of a doubleheader tomorrow.  Hopefully the rain will be out of the area by then and the Braves can use the day off to regroup and get things going in the right direction tomorrow.

NL East Power Rankings

It’s time for our first series of NL East Power Rankings. Power Rankings indicate who has the power and momentum in the division and with three contenders this year, they’ll change weekly. So who is at the top? Who is at the bottom? And why do the Marlins have the same record as the Braves?

#1 – The Atlanta Braves
The Braves (3-3) have come out of the gate with their offense firing on most cylinders. The scary part of that is they’re still 2nd in the NL in average (.292), runs (40), slugging percentage (.470) and OPS (.822). They’ve already shown their ability to battle back and put games into extra innings, as well as outscore the Mets 14-6 in the last two games. Their pitching staff is not working as it should yet – the bullpen is recovering from early jitters and Mike Hampton is back on the DL (Surprise? Hardly). But solid starts from both John Smoltz and Jair Jurrjens have put the Braves in a good spot to be – at the top of the division early.

#2 – Florida Marlins
How are these guys able to be 3-3? They’ve taken it to the Pirates. I don’t think they’ll be in the #2 position long, so don’t get used to it. They’ll begin climbing the ranks downward.

#3 – New York Mets
These guys would be in the two position were it not for the Marlins’ strong start. Santana is looking good, Pedro is hurt and their offense wasn’t clicking during their last series against the Braves. The Mets’ bullpen hasn’t been stellar so far either. But they’re the Mets, and they’ll surely rebound strong. Can’t discount them.

#4 – Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies may be in the cellar right now as far as standings go, but they’re not completely dead yet. However, they’ve had issues with the starting pitching and relief corps. And their highly touted offense has had a slow start – scoring only 27 runs so far – that’s fourth in the NL East.

#5 – Washington Nationals
The Nationals have issues. They just lost a series – the entire series – to Cardinals. The Nationals did eek out a win against the Braves to start the season (lucky break on that Moylan pitch), but they’re going to need to start winning the easy games against the teams that are worse than them. Thus, they’re in the basement, at least for the first week of the power rankings.

Did I mis-rank the teams? Any of the 12 Marlins fans that are young enough to own computers want to whine about them not being at the top? Leave us a comment and we’ll hash it out.