Time To Take The Series Loss But Avoid The Sweep

The Atlanta Braves have only been fallen victim to a series sweep twice so far this season and those were back-to-back in that dreaded, forgettable 9-game losing streak in April.  Going back to the May 7th-10th series against the Phillies, the Braves are 10-0-3 in series results.  This series against the Chicago White Sox marks the first losing series for the Braves since a 1-2 loss the Nationals from May 4th-6th (who just so happen to be coming to town on Monday so be ready for some retribution).

Despite already being down for the series loss, the Braves can still avoid falling back into the sweep column with a win this afternoon.  Derek Lowe (9-5, 4.77) faces off against Gavin Floyd (2-7, 5.20) and the hot-hitting ChiSox (they’re 11-1 in their last 12 games).  Don’t let Floyd’s record fool you however; he’s been hot as of late.  The key to the game for Lowe today is to keep the ball down in the zone and not give the ChiSox hitters a chance to hit the ball out of US Cellular Field.

All things considered, if we can go 10-1-3 every 14 series, I like our chances.  Let’s get out of Chicago and play some games at the Ted.

Waking Up In First Place

The Atlanta Braves have not been in first place this late in the season since 2005, which is coincidentally — or maybe not — the last year the Braves won the division.

When this team was reeling in April with that unforgettable nine game losing streak, you would have been hard-pressed to find many who would believe that the Braves would be in first place by the start of June.

The Braves being in first place is a combination of superb play from the team themselves and a huge slump coming from the preseason favorite Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies closed out May with a 3-7 record over their past ten games whereas the Braves went 8-2, including the major’s longest winning streak with six straight victories.

Until San Diego’s blowout of the Mets, the Braves had the best run differential in the National League. Unfortunately, the Padres passed the Braves, but personally, I am not too upset that they pounded the Mets out as they surpassed us in terms of Pythagorean Record.

As they enter June, the Braves have a tough schedule in the coming weeks.

Atlanta plays Philadelphia for the remaining two games in this series tonight and tomorrow, then they fly out to Los Angeles for a four game set, then to Arizona for four, and close out the road trip in Minnesota for three. There are no off days from now until the end of that stretch. The Braves have struggled outside of Turner (12-16 in away games), so having a solid road trip will be a tough task that hopefully the Braves are up for.

Before they start the road trip, the Braves have a great opportunity to extend their NL East lead and put the Phillies in a bigger hole with Tim Hudson on the mound tonight and Derek Lowe facing off against Kyle Kendrick tomorrow.

Hudson has had solid numbers so far, but has been less effective than many believe. His 4.39 FIP compared to his 2.24 ERA says that he has gotten rather lucky, and if he wants to continue the success he has had this year, he will have to strike-out more and walk less.

Derek Lowe, on the other hand has had more success as of late (4.11 ERA in May), and has actually been a bit unlucky this year as his FIP stands at 4.47 while his ERA sits at 4.86. If Lowe pitches as he has, he should be in line for a lower ERA and more success in the general fan’s eyes in the near future.

Both of their performances will be key in extending the division league in the next two days, but regardless, this is not a must-win situation for either game. The Braves are in a great position and are playing very solid baseball as of late. Regardless of whether they win or lose both games, the Braves are playing well. And at the start of June, that means more than their current place in the standings.

This is a great time to be a Braves follower, and waking up in first place for the first time in June since 2005 at least shows that this is a better product than we have seen in the past few seasons. Hopefully, the Braves will be able start consecutive months in first place and bring the winning ways back to Atlanta. Those same winning ways we all grew accustom to for 14 straight seasons.

Resurgent Rotation & A Look Ahead At The Phils

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio commentary, Kent Covington talks about the Braves resurgent rotation, fueled by the recent strides of Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami… and looks ahead at the upcoming series with the first place Phillies. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Derek Lowe v.2010

Today’s post is from an old friend, Ryan Pye, who we’ll hopefully be able to convince to put something together for the site now and then in the upcoming season.  Pye may not be a Braves fan, but maybe that’ll help cut down on our homering a little bit.  Thanks, Pye.

Many people expect the Braves to be in the thick of the playoff hunt this year, and I am on the bandwagon as well. The main reason I think the Braves will earn a spot in the playoffs is the depth of their starting pitching (though I would have been much more bullish on their chances had they not made the Melky for Vazquez trade). Even with the loss of Vazquez, who received some Cy Young attention as well as leading the team in FIP with a 2.77 (which was 3rd best in all of baseball) and WAR with 6.6, the rotation should be solid. Having a full year of Tommy Hanson will help immensely but an area that could also be a way to recover some of Vazquez’s value would be a rebound year from Derek Lowe.

If you watched Lowe last year, you probably wanted the Braves to get a refund on the $15,000,00 that Frank Wren gave him. Unfortunately you will not see me saying Lowe will be worth his salary this year, but I do think he will be more valuable than he was last year.

Lowe’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) last year was a fairly sizable .330 while the MLB average was .299 (and MLB average BABIP tends to hover around .300 each year). Without getting into the semantics of why (other than to say we expect Lowe’s BABIP to regress to the mean), we are fairly confident that Lowe’s BABIP will come down, which will lead to less hits and less runs. For this reason alone, I am fairly confident we will see a more productive Lowe this season.

In addition to that, Lowe’s K/9 dwindled to 5.13 and his BB/9 increased to 2.91. Both of those numbers are significantly less useful than his stats from 2008 (K/9-6.27 and BB/9-1.92). While I do not think Lowe will ever reach those levels again, both his K/9 and BB/9 stats were worse than his career averages, with the K/9 being about .8 less per game. Perhaps both of those are just forecasting the gradual decline of Lowe’s skill set, I think both of those numbers will be better than his 2009 numbers.

Lastly, even if Lowe pitched exactly as he did last year (no change in K/9 or BB/9), he still would most likely have a better year this year. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) from 2009 was 4.06. This statistic is saying that, factoring out the defense Lowe received, he should have had an ERA closer to 4 than it was to 4.7. Add in the fact that Melky Cabrera and Jason Hayward will be taking away some of the fielding opportunities from Matt Diaz, Lowe’s stats are due for a regression. And in this case, a regression is a good thing.

Braves Spring Training Yields Pitching Answers

Earlier this week, we addressed the questions facing the Braves lineup heading into the spring. But what about the pitching? Numerous questions/doubts were raised by fans and observers over the winter regarding the Atlanta rotation and bullpen. So what have we learned over the course of the Spring?

Q. Will Billy Wagner be healthy, and will he resemble the “Wags” of old?

A. I never fully understood this question, since I thought it was largely answered last year, when he struck out 26 batters in 15.2 innings, and posted a 1.72 ERA after his late-season return from the disabled list.

Yes, he had UCL reconstruction (“Tommy John”) surgery, but that was back in 2008, and he was ahead of schedule at every stage in his recovery. More than a year and a half have passed since that surgery, from which there is now a better than 90% FULL recovery rate. All things considered, I cannot explain why his recovery wasn’t obvious to so many after the way he pitched late last year.

But those fans who were nervously observing him this spring should now rest easier. He has thrown the ball quite will, routinely firing fastballs in the mid-90’s. One radar gun reading drew gasps from the spring training crowd when a Wagner heater was clocked at 101 mph.

Q. Is Hudson healthy and ready to regain top-of-rotation form?

A. As with the Billy Wagner question, it has been difficult for me to comprehend the doubts so many have had in Hudson’s ability to perform at a high level in 2010.

Hudson is also more than a year and half removed from TJ surgery, and he looked fantastic after returning for 7 starts at the end of last season, posting a 3.61 ERA in 42 innings. One Major League scout commented at the time that it looked as though Hudson “had never left” (never been injured). The Braves had certainly seen enough to convince them of Hudson’s health and ability when they resigned him to a 3-year deal over the winter. But for those who needed further proof this spring… here ya go:

In 5 spring starts, Hudson is 3-1 with 1.35 ERA. He has also KO’d 17 batters in his 20 innings of pre-season work. His arm feels as good as it ever has, and opposing hitters will tell you his pitches have never been more difficult to square up.

Q. Will Derek Lowe bounce back from a disappointing 2009 season?

A. If his spring performance is any indication, he can and most likely will bounce back with a strong 2010 season. In an effort to correct mechanical flaws that led to an underwhelming ’09 season, Lowe worked with Braves’ Pitching Coach, Roger McDowell, on returning to a windup and delivery he had used to great effect earlier in his career.

The results have been very encouraging. This spring, for the most part, Lowe has been successful in getting opposing hitters to either beat the ball into the ground or swing through it all together. If you remove one start that was severely hampered (and shortened) by a blister, he wrapped up the Grapefruit League season with a 3.42 ERA and fewer hits than innings pitched.

Q. Is Jair Jurrjens shoulder healthy?

A. In a word: Yes. A February MRI revealed no damage in his shoulder, and the prescribed rest seemed to do the trick. Jurrjens has been gaining strength in his shoulder throughout the month of March, and now reportedly no longer feels any pain or discomfort in the shoulder whatsoever. His last outing was his best yet (5 innings, 1 hit, 3 K’s, no runs allowed). He is on track to start game 2 of the regular season on April 7, at home against the Chicago Cubs.

Q. After the bullpen “locks” (Wagner, Saito, Moylan, O’Flaherty), how will the ‘pen shape up?

A. Kris Medlen is quite highly thought of within the Braves organization and is another virtual lock to retain his seat in the Atlanta bullpen.

JoJo Reyes has frustrated Braves officials, who recognize his potential, with his inability to make the most of multiple chances to crack the big league starting rotation. This spring, the powers that be decided to test him in a relief role. It’s a test he’s passed with flying colors, and it appears he’ll open the season as the third lefty in the Atlanta ‘pen.

After landing with the Braves via Tampa Bay in the Rafael Soriano trade, Jesse Chavez has had a rough spring. A VERY rough spring. Having said that, he was quite effective in his two most recent appearances. But more importantly, he has something on his resume that those competing against him for the final bullpen spot do not… big league success. Chavez was quite solid for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 73 relief appearance last year, and that will likely more than atone for his rocky spring.

But don’t forget about Scott Proctor, who the Braves signed to a minor league deal back in November. The former Yankees bullpen workhorse (and former Braves trade target) is wrapping up what has thus far been a very successful rehabilitation from the “Tommy John” surgery he underwent last May. The hard throwing righty will likely supplant one member of the Atlanta ‘pen by the end of April.

PROJECTED BRAVES BULLPEN:
Wagner (LHP – Closer)
Saito (RHP – Setup Man)
Moylan (RHP)
Medlen (RHP)
Chavez (RHP)
O’Flaherty (LHP)
Reyes (LHP)

Who’s Ready For Baseball?

It seems hardly fitting that today is the first Spring Training game for the Braves.  I’m sitting here staring out the window in Atlanta to a very gray day outside and watching my car slowly get covered in snow.  I’ve lived in Atlanta for 9 years and it has snowed maybe 3 times since I’ve been here, but I’m pretty sure this is the 5th significant snow this winter.  That’s all irrelevant for the most part however.

In a couple of hours, the Braves are scheduled to take the field for their opening Grapefruit League game against the Mets.  It’s mid-60s there, slight chance of rain, but nevertheless, it’s time for baseball.

So here’s where we are and what we’ve learned thus far in Spring Training:

Jason Heyward hits bombs. We’ve heard it plenty from every news source covering the Braves (and a number that really aren’t).  Parking lots.  New nets to protect cars.  We get it.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m pumped to see this kid play, but I’m just ready to see how he handles live pitching.  Batting practice is one thing, but I have no doubts that he can bring it at a big league level.

Jair Jurrjens is okay. It’ll be a few days before his pitch counts start to increase again, but all indications are that Jurrjens will be okay in the long run.  I’d much rather the training staff takes their time with him and keeps him healthy down the stretch this season.

Derek Lowe is the opening day starter.  I’m not terribly sure I agree with this, but it’s a showing of confidence from Bobby Cox so I can accept it.  Any situation where Tim Hudson is your number four starter…..I’m okay with it.  I’ve heard a little distaste about that fact, but seriously, step back and look at it.  If this rotation is healthy, it’s stacked.

The games don’t matter. So maybe we haven’t really learned this one in Spring Training, but it’s just a reminder to everyone that the outcome of Spring Training games isn’t the real thing we should be looking at during this time of year.  Keep your eye on individual performances, watch the young guys get the chance to show off a little, and get pumped up for baseball to get started back up at the Ted.

So that’s that, Braves vs. Mets at 1pm today.  Tommy Hanson will throw a couple of innings and I’m looking for another big season out of him.  What are you looking at in Spring Training?  Young guys?  Old guys trying to regain form?  Either way, it’s time for baseball.

Braves Beat Mets In Opener

I hate to be the guy who says it, but we’re all thinking it: Finally, the Braves benefitted from every at-bat Jeff Francoeur had.

Don’t get me wrong – I like the guy – but I am glad he’s not hacking away for our team as we’re trying to take a crucial series from the Mets. This first few series after the All-Star Break are important. This one, particularly so. After a polite and well-deserved ovation, Francoeur hit into a double play on the first pitch – vintage Francoeur. There’s a microcosm of his career with the Braves – we love him, but he hacks and gets out. He went 0-4 on the night.

The real story is Chipper’s continued dominance of the Mets – he poked a go-ahead RBI single through the infield to give the Braves a lead they wouldn’t give back. Lowe pitched an excellent game, the bullpen was great, and the Braves took home the first game of the series.

Now it’s time to do it again – we need to take this series!

Braves’ Pitching Abounds

The Braves starting pitching continues to excel this season – and while Frank Wren searches for some more offense to back up the staff, the Braves are not lacking in starting pitching depth.

Derek Lowe is 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA (8 quality starts), Jair Jurrjens is 5-2 with a beautiful 2.59 ERA (7 quality starts), and Javier Vazquez is doing ok – he has an even 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA (7 quality starts). Behind that, Kenshin Kawakami appears to be struggling at 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA, but you’d be having trouble too if you only got an average of 1.7 runs scored per game when you were pitching. With such lousy run support, it’s a wonder Kawakami has three wins.

Glavine is ready to come to Atlanta and start. Whether or not he’ll be good, we’ll see. He’s ready though. Kris Medlen had two rough starts but was great in his last start as he struck out nine in six innings of work. He may just have a chance to stick around and prove he has the stuff he needs to excel in the majors. And of course we have Tommy Hanson honing his skills in Gwinnett, waiting to make the 45 minute drive south and show us his stuff. Oh, and Tim Hudson is on track for a return in August or September.

So what happens now? We’ve got Tommy ready to pitch, Medlen to give some playing time to, Hanson to fit in, and 2 pitchers that are doing alright.

I think the odd man out, interestingly enough, is Javier Vazquez. He has a high strikeout rate, but the Braves give him the most run support while he’s on the mound (5.5 runs per game) and yet he’s only 4-4 – and the Braves are only .455 when he gets the ball. To give you an idea of how bad that is, the Braves are .400 with Jo-Jo Reyes starting. Kawakami needs more run support, but with that run support he’ll likely be much better. He could end up being the odd man out too.

Who’s the odd man out? What does our rotation/bullpen look like at the end of the year?

Lowe Outduels Santana, Braves Win

This is why we signed Derek Lowe.

While the Braves’ offense faced Johan Santana, Lowe went to the mound in the brand new Citi Field to ensure the Mets continued the trend of offering Santana little or no run support. Santana, for his part, was very good – he held the Braves to seven hits and two unearned runs in 6 1/3 innings. But the Braves’ offense backed Lowe’s great start with enough productivity to take advantage of the Mets’ errors. What was a tie game turned into an 8-3 win for the Braves – and Lowe improved to 5-1 on the year.

Santana has had some bad luck against the Braves. Despite being arguably the best pitcher in baseball, he’s 0-4 against the Braves in six starts (Braves have won 5 out of 6). The Mets are paying Santana a LOT of money and though he’s been effective, he’s not walking off with the win against the Bravos. After yesterday’s outing, Santana’s ERA is a ridiculous 0.78, by the way. Interesting tidbit: The Braves are the only team in baseball Santana has faced without winning.

This is why Derek Lowe is the ace of the staff – he’s a big game pitcher. “I love facing guys like that – especially Santana,” Lowe said, “He’s going to beat you more than you beat him. But it’s fun to pitch in those games, when every pitch could be the game.”

Interestingly enough, Lowe offered some high praise after the game for Jair Jurrjens. “We have our best pitcher going tomorrow,” Lowe said – referring to the young Curacao native. I’ll also point out that New York’s beloved “Larrrry” was sitting out of last night’s game.

Star of the road trip: The Braves are 5-1 on this 8 game road trip so far, and you have to pin a lot of it on Casey Kotchman, who has 10 RBI in the past 5 games. Kotchman is hitting the ball well and showing us why the Braves thought he’d be a good fit at first base.

Braves at Nationals, Game 1

Derek Lowe takes on the Nationals tonight as their #1 prospect Jordan Zimmermann takes the mound in his major league debut. The Braves have lost six in a row in Washington and need a series win after losing five of their last six this season. The Nationals have done some roster shuffling recently after a dismal 1-10 start to the season – so Braves fans, remember it could always be worse.

Brian McCann is out of the lineup tonight as he’s still experiencing some eye dryness. He may need lasik surgery before he can return – hopefully that’s not the case. Either way, good thing Dave Ross got healthy just in time for this. Fortunately Chipper should play tonight – the Braves are a much better team when opposing pitchers have to think about pitching around him.

The Braves need to step it up and take at least 2 out of 3 from the Nationals. They’re an easy team to take it from – and we need to be back on track soon so we don’t fall behind early in the season. Hopefully our bullpen is less sucky without Blaine Boyer.

DLowe, Braves Fall To Marlins

Derek Lowe didn’t start the night off in a good way. Two walks, two pitches in the dirt (one wild pitch), and one run given up before the Braves came up to bat. Fortunately, Kelly Johnson led off with a triple and scored in the bottom of the first. Similarly, when Lowe gave up 3 runs in the top of the 5th, the Braves answered with three.

But let’s be honest, if your bullpen gives up six runs (5 in the 9th inning), chances are you’re sunk, no matter what happened in the first five innings. Rafael Soriano and Eric O’Flaherty were the only good spots for the Braves – Soriano pitched a perfect 8th inning and O’Flaherty struck out his only charge. Peter Moylan struggled (needed to get that ERA back above 20.00), Blaine Boyer couldn’t find the plate (seriously – he had no clue where it was) and Jorge Campillo had to come in and close the game out in the bottom of the 9th. If we were the Yankees, we’d have sent in Nick Swisher to pitch at that point.

In the end, we lost 10-4. Not even close. The bullpen’s gotta work these jitters out – last year I got so sick of one run games – this year I am going to get mad even faster if we continue to give up six runs every time our bullpen shows up. An ERA of 7.00 from our bullpen is hardly anywhere near acceptable.

Oh, and by the way – if you’re heading out to the game – grab a few layers. It gets downright COLD at night with the wind blowing.

Lowe v. Miller, Chipper Sits

Derek Lowe takes the mound tonight for the Braves as they take on the Florida Marlins and Andrew Miller. They look to bounce back from last night’s 5-1 loss, but they’ll have to do it without Chipper Jones, who is sitting with a thumb injury. We’ll update this live from the game, so check back frequently for updates!

Even though Jonathan and I are going to be at the game tonight, feel free to use the chat room and comment thread to offer your opinions and insight on the game.