Cox Out, Morton On The Mound

Coming off a strong win last night against the Marlins, the Braves send Charlie Morton (2-2, 5.93 ERA) to the mound against Rick VandenHurk (0-1, 11.81 ERA).  Morton won’t have Bobby Cox in the dugout to turn to - Bobby is serving a one game suspension for his actions a couple nights ago that led to his 141st career ejection.

Game starts at 7:10 PM.  This is a must-win series, and VandenHurk doesn’t seem like a very intimidating pitcher with his sky-high ERA.

NL East Review: Marlins

Man…those Devil Rays really are making a name for themselves. Evan Longoria, Rookie of the Year? Guy’s an absolute beast this year, average isn’t perfect, but his other numbers are easily better than any other rookie out there. Among qualifying rookies in both leagues, Longoria is fourth in the majors in average (.275, tops in the AL) and tops in the majors in homers (15), he is also tied for second with Geovany Soto for RBIs (50, David Murphy - 52). Among other stat categories, Longoria leads the majors in slugging (.528) and is second to Soto in OPS (.876). Yes I know I haven’t really looked at pitchers, but the best qualifying AL Rookie is 5-6 with a 3.44 ERA, not exactly sparkling even for a rookie (remember Brandon Webb and Dontrelle Willis‘ rookie years?). No that definitely got me thinking back to 1995, when a young hotshot rookie third baseman was coming off a severe ACL injury, but immediately made an impact offensively on a team that would go on to win the world series. Chipper Jones that year hit .265 with 23 home runs and 86 RBIs, he also had 23 doubles and a .450 slugging percentage…this was in 524 at-bats, Longoria’s doing his damage in half that many. At the rate he’s going, Longoria might become THE offensive threat in their line up for years to come (he also signed a long term contract that would keep him out of the first year of free agency).

Anyway, back to the real article: The Marlins, boy they were a surprise coming out of the gates and still are. But to be honest, anyone truly surprised by this just hasn’t taken a look at the recent past. The Marlins have a unique formula for winning games, getting to the playoffs and winning championships. Their owner and general manager don’t go for it every year as much as their fans would like to believe. After their first championship in 1997, they got rid of guys like Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Luis Castillo among hitters and Techie Kevin Brown, Rob Nen and Al Leiter among pitchers to bring in younger talent. Later in 1998 they would resume their firesale to bring in guys like…well, just take a look at this, their 2003 Championship roster:

• C - Ivan Rodriguez
• 1B - Derek Lee
• 2B - Luis Castillo
• 3B - Mike Lowell
• SS - Alex Gonzalez
• LF - Todd Hollandsworth
• CF - Juan Pierre
• RF - Juan Encarnacion
• BN - Miguel Cabrera
• BN - Mike Redmond
• SP - Carl Pavano (Healthy)
• SP - Brad Penny
• SP - Mark Redman (when he was good)
• SP - Dontrelle Willis
• SP - Josh Becket (worst starter on that staff…seriously)
• CL - Braden Looper, not the best but still good at that time.

Imagine what their team would be and how many games they would have won in the last five years had they kept those guys together. At that time only Pudge was over 30, but he’s still playing pretty decently. He’s only seen a decline this year. All of the rest of those guys are name guys, there aren’t any players on that team that would make you think, huh? who? Maybe back then, and obviously hindsight is 20/20, but still, there’s something special about a group of no-name players winning a world series.

In that regard, I initially predicted them to win one in 2009 (every six years), but the way this team’s going right now I would not be surprised to see them do it a year early. They have the talent, their offense is clicking and they are expecting some of their best pitchers back (just like the Braves, except the Marlins are actually hitting).

These are some of the highlights of their current roster and how they got the players:

• Dan Uggla - .289, 23 homer, 58 RBIs and .620 slugging (!!). Rule 5 draft pick from Arizona when they could not find room for him on the roster
• Jorge Cantu - .273, 14 homers,  struck out just 66 times in 330 at-bats. This guy was released by the Reds in December and signed to a minor league contract by the Marlins and is now an everyday player.
• Hanley Ramirez - .298, 20 home runs, 41 RBI and 72 runs scored. Came over in the Josh Beckett trade from the Red Sox and just signed the largest contract in Marlins history.
• Their outfield is pretty decent too with guys like Luis Gonzalez (who was supposed to be washed up and done), Cody Ross and Jeremy Hermida (who went to my high school - Wheeler, Go Wildcats!). Not only that, they have solid backups in Alfredo Amezaga, Wes Helms and Josh Willingham
• With the exception of Mark Hendrickson, all of their starters are 25 and under. Scott Olsen got serious this year and and has a 3.47 ERA in 106.1 innings, Ricky Nolasco is 9-4 with a 3.94 ERA and they are still expecting Josh Johnson back later this season.
• In the Bullpen both Kevin Gregg and Renyel Pinto have sub-3.00 ERAs in 40+ innings for both (Gregg has pitched 39.2, close enough).

So, how do they stack up against other teams…pretty well. They are fifth in the NL in runs scored (407) and first in home runs (121). Their team batting average is pretty low (11, .253), but they step it up when there are runners on (.266). They are also fifth in OPS at .758.

Their pitching stats are surprisingly poor with a 4.54 team ERA (12), and 10 in batting average against at .262. Their bullpen, though, has been solid with a 3.71 ERA and a .241 BAA.

So after these numbers, where would the Marlins possibly need help? Well, the same place everyone else is looking, starting pitching. They may need one or two guys to get them down the stretch. Hendrickson has been slowing down after a great start and they may need someone to spell him. They also need some help in the bullpen to stabilize that end and maybe get a set up guy for the stretch. That said, they are a very young team and have tasted losing seasons in the past, the taste of those seasons has obviously left them with a great will to win and win soon. I think the Marlins’ best baseball is ahead of them and they should be able to pull out the division as long as they keep believing in themselves.

Current Record: 44-40

Predicted Final Record: 90-72, Tied-1st NL East

- Akshay

Of Course…We’re At Home

It’s a great feeling to be back at Turner Field.  Two games. Two come-from-behind wins.  That’s something that I’m 100% confident in saying that we are just incapable of doing on the road right now.  The Braves are only a game behind the Marlins in the division and can tie them with a win today while trying to hang with the surging Phillies who have won 7 of their last 8 games.  Hopefully we can cool them down when they come to Turner on Friday.

Unfortunately we won’t be seeing John Smoltz back out on the field today as the closer.  The announcement in his press conference today was that he would most likely have season-ending surgery next Tuesday, but that he’s not yet ready to retire and will pitch again should his rehabilitated shoulder allow him to do so.  Personally, I don’t think any of us are ready for him to retire, but it’s going to have to happen sooner or later.

Tom Glavine’ll be taking the hill for the Braves today against Mark Hendrickson, who despite having a 5.27 ERA so far this season, is coming into the game with a 7-3 record.  If we can keep the offense cool, we have a great shot today.  Go Braves!

Braves and Fish, Take 2

Campillo is in the middle of another solid outing against the Marlins.  It’s 3-2 Atlanta right now in the top of the third.  He’s nailing the catcher’s mitt with consistency with his offspeed stuff (it’s all he’s got).

Looks like none of the BravesBlast crew made it out to the park tonight.  Jonathan’s stuck at work and I start a new job tomorrow so I’m busy prepping for that and cleaning around the house.  If you’re watching the game, join in the discussion.

On the mound for the Marlins is Burke Badenhop.  He let the Braves score 3 in the first on Chipper Jones’ three run home run - his 399th career blast.

Join in!  Braves just got out of a jam with a nice 5-4-3 double play.  On to the bottom of the third.

Escobar, Braves Walk Off

Yunel Escobar picked the right time to swing at a 3-0 pitch. With 13 career plate appearances and 13 career walks on a 3-0 count, Yunel Escobar stood at the plate in the bottom of the 10th in a tie game tonight with a 3-0 count and jacked the ball deep to center. As the Marlins center fielder slammed into the wall, Escobar’s ball bounced off the top of the wall before clearing it. The Braves won 7-5.

In the bottom of the ninth, Jeff Francoeur scooted home on a wild pitch to tie the game 5-5, saving John Smoltz from getting the loss in his first appearance since coming back from the disabled list. A couple of misplayed balls by Omar Infante (including a crucial ball that just bounced off his glove) not just cost the Braves the lead but put the Marlins ahead 5-4. Smoltz gave up a couple hits but was hitting 95 with his fastball and around 85 with his change. His arm slot is interesting to watch.

Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur both added solo shots and Jo-Jo Reyes pitched into the 7th inning for his second straight start.  The game saw several lead changes early, with the Marlins holding close early.  Escobar had played hero earlier in the night too with a clutch single in the eighth to give the Braves a 4-3 lead with two outs.

Great to see the Braves back at home and winning close games.  We need these if we’re going to be horrible on the road.  More baseball tomorrow night from the Ted.

Tidbits for conversation:

• Why is Greg Norton starting in left field?
• Do you think Smoltzie’s issues tonight were a sign of more to come, or an abnormality?

Let’s Catch Some Fish

The Braves are back from their latest stunningly awful road trip of epic proportions and are playing the Marlins tonight at Turner Field.  Now, if we were on the road we’d just go ahead and write the thread saying we lost, but since we’re at home a completely different team is going to show up, continuing to frustrate and bewilder Braves fans.

The inconsistent Jo-Jo Reyes (2-3, 4.83) takes the mound for the Braves against the Marlins’ southpaw Scott Olsen (4-2, 3.65).  Let’s look for offensive firepower from Chipper (as always), Tex (who’s been on fire as of late), and hopefully Francoeur can continue to notch it up a bit.

Smoltz may or may not make an appearance tonight.  I’d guess not, but if he does, expect the crowd to respond with some noise.  If you’re not doing anything tonight, come on out to the ballpark and enjoy some Monday night baseball with us.  Support the Braves and help them come off that rough road trip with some hometown lovin’.

NL East: The Big Picture

Here’s the big picture in the NL East right now:

Florida Marlins: Can they hold it together? Nobody expected to see these guys in first this far into the season.  I think even the Marlins are surprised.  That hasn’t kept them from acting like they belong in first.  Anchored offensively by Uggla, Hermida, and Ramirez, the Marlins have come out to score this year - currently ranked 10th in the league with runs scored.  The rotation has been solid as well - only six different pitchers have started games this year.  The Marlins recently picked up Jacque Jones to shore up their outfield after he was released by the Tigers.  But if the Tigers can afford to release him, will he help?  The biggest question remains: can the Marlins keep it up?

Atlanta Braves: Sure, the Braves can win at home, but they have to be able to win on the road or nothing will come of it. The Braves have a rock solid offense led by the mighty Chipper Jones, but they’ve had some injury issues on their pitching staff - Smoltz is moving to the bullpen, Rafael Soriano has spent significant time on the DL, but they’ll get those two plus Mike Gonzalez back from the DL here soon. The question - will they trade for another starter? Not if Jorge Campillo can keep up his Greg Maddux impression (and get rid of some pesky blisters).

Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies are shadowing the Braves as they both stalk the Marlins.  Their offense has been good but hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for more than a game or two at a time, and past Cole Hamels their other starters have ERAs at or above 4.37.  Brett Myers has dropped his last four starts, and Adam Eaton is still winless.  If the Phillies’ starters can get their acts together, this is a much more dangerous team - already they’re fourth in the NL with 26 quality starts - but they have potential for much more.  On the other hand, their bullpen has been great - lowing the team ERA to a 5th best 3.98.  The Phillies could come together to be a very dangerous team.

New York Mets: The Mets’ manager Willie Randolph is under fire for his team’s poor play. And the Mets have had poor play as of late. They’re now in fourth place struggling to beat decent teams. The team is oft-injured. Ryan Church likes concussions, Moises Alou caught Mike Hampton syndrome, and Marlon Anderson pulled up lame. And that’s just the last series in Atlanta. Pedro comes back soon, but will he really help? Johan Santana hasn’t been the savior he was billed as, either. This team has got to start playing ball if they want to hang it at the top of the division.

Washington Nationals:  The Nationals are just chilling out in the NL East basement, 7.5 games out of first with a .420 winning percentage.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NL, ranking third to last in runs scored, second to last in OBP and OPS, and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Their pitching staff is better, but not by much, ranked 12/16 in ERA and 13/16 in Batting Average Against.  This is likely something we see continued for most of the season.

What do you see happening?  Can the Marlins hold it together?  Will the Braves start winning on the road?  Can the Phillies fire on all cylinders?  Are the Mets and Willie Randolph doomed to oblivion?

Braves Knock Out Fish 7-4

The offense has two positions - on and off.  They tore out of the gate yesterday - scoring five runs in the first inning while batting through the order.  That included a 2 RBI double from Francoeur and a massive fly ball from Chuck James - had he not gotten under it, we would have seen the first hit from a Braves pitcher be a home run.  Chipper added his own touch on his birthday, hitting his seventh bomb of the year in the second.  Francoeur knocked in McCann in the eighth with a sacrifice fly.  McCann had just tripled (with the most awkward slide in history into third) - had everyone laughing.  That’s right, McCann tripled - may be the only time in his career.

James pitched a good five innings of ball - he was solid, but not lights out.  Gave up four runs, struck out three, but walked five.  Campillo and Acosta each pitched two scoreless innings to finish the game out.  Great to see some solid relief out of the bullpen.  James got sent down to Richmond after the game in exchange for a fresh bullpen arm - we’ll find out who today.  Good to see the 7-4 win over the Marlins, who are at the top of the division.

Some great defense in center field yesterday for Gregor Blanco, who started in place of Mark Kotsay.  He had a great catch against the wall and made a second interesting catch going back towards the wall.  He’s fast - there were a couple he got to simply because of his speed.  He ran out a groundball at first base - and beat it out too.  Great to have him in the lineup.

It’s a good thing the offense was firing yesterday - we have to score runs as long as James and Bennett are starting - but can’t we get Smoltzie just a couple runs next time, fellas?

James Hoping to Make Waves

Tonight, Chuck James (1-1, 7.88 ERA) faces Burke Badenhop (0-1, 7.00 ERA) as the Braves take on the Marlins.  Last night’s game against the Marlins left some Braves fans with a sour taste in their mouth. After successfully hitting better than the fish last night, the Braves fell hard at the end of the game, leaving runners on base in every inning but the fifth. This seems to be a trend that the Braves hope to crack tonight.

 Chuck James pitched well against the Dodgers; let’s hope that he can keep that up tonight. James had a 1.19 ERA against the Marlins in the past, a clutch statistic we’d like to hold onto.

We’ll have to keep our eyes on Hermida, a Marietta native who gives strength to the Marlins. Also, keep your eyes on Jeff Francoeur who has been less than himself the past two games. After running back to first base after a fly-out by McCann, Jeff pulled up in seeming pain. The remainder of the game, Francoeur didn’t have the drive he usually exhibits letting multiple obtainable balls fall in front of him.

Tonight we’ll have to hope to break our 2 game losing streak and get back up in the NL East rankings.

And also: happy birthday, Mr. Jones.

What’s With The Two Game Series?

The Marlins (12-8) are back in town for a two-game series against the Braves (10-10) today and tomorrow before we head off to New York for a weekender against the Mets.  Surprising to pretty much Everyone, 20 games into the season and the Marlins still find themselves perched atop the NL East standings, but I doubt we’ll see them there too terribly much longer.  The Mets, Phillies and Braves are all within a half-game of each other and sitting close behind.

Jeff Bennett (0-0) takes the mound again tonight looking for a little more run support than John Smoltz got in his terrific outing last night.   He’ll face off against Andrew Miller (0-2) who has struggled thus far this season, landing an ERA over 9 to this point.  It would be nice if the offense could get on him early tonight and keep that trend continuing.  It would be nice if we could stick to just one loss and get another win streak going tonight.

Smoltz K’s 10, Braves Shut Out Fish

Here are a couple numbers to consider:

Firstly: 4 plate appearances, translating into two homeruns, a double, and a walk. Bringing the average for the season up to .440
Secondly: 5 scoreless innings pitched, 10 strikeouts, bringing the total career K-count to 2996.

Yes, Chipper Jones and John Smoltz, the elder statesmen of the team, combined for a masterpiece of teamwork tonight. And it felt so good to get back in that “W” column.

But there’s more:
- Brayan Pena pinch hit and scored on Kelly Johnson’s home run.
- Kotsay triples, Kotsay doubles.
- Immediately following Chipper’s second homer, Teixeira and MCann do the same.
- THE BULLPEN DOES IT RIGHT!
- Ohman, Resop, Acosta and Buddy Carlyle perform superbly.

Obviously demoralized from a slew of recent bad news, prior to the game the team had a brief meeting with normally reticent Bobby Cox. I don’t know what he said, but it worked.

Yes, Moylan may be out for the season.
Yes, Soriano is on the DL.
Yes, Glavine and Hudson both underwhelmed recently.
Yes, going into this game, our starters had the next-to-last worst league average for innings pitched.

But something tonight was in the water. Like all the planets lined up and the Braves found everything they needed in order to get it done.  Here’s hoping they are on to something.

And I can’t wait to see Mr. Smoltz get his 3000th strike-out.

Marlins Beat Braves 6-5

At this point, one has to ask - will the Braves ever win a one-run game?  After the loss to the Marlins, the Braves are 0-7 in one-run games.  That’s right, 7 out of our 9 losses were lost by one run.

Tim Hudson, normally the stopper when we’re on a losing streak, did not look good after giving up four runs in just three innings of work.  His fastball was topping out just over 85 mph, and his control was not there.  Cox pulled him after just three innings because, “His arm was kind of dead.”

The Braves plated a run in the first, and then Yunel Escobar hit a two run home run in the fifth inning to bring the game to 4-3, but even a two-run rally in the eighth couldn’t help the Braves get out of the hole they dug early.  On the bright side, Jorge Campillo pitched three hitless innings and he’s looking good.  Not a bad guy to have in the ‘pen - and if he can keep it up, he’ll be one of the go-to long relievers.

Of course the worst part of all this is the loss.  The Braves are now 5-9 and in fourth place in the NL East.  They’re 0-7 in one-run games.  And something has to turn around soon.

It’ll happen, but one has to wonder how long we wait before the Braves look the way they should in our minds.