It Wasn’t A Lack Of Power…..

….it was the “Axis Of Feeble”

If you’re one of the many fans or national sports media types who still aren’t taking the Braves seriously, there is something you need to know… You are mistaken.

You observe that the Braves have little more thunder in their lineup than they had through the first 3 months of the season, and you see no reason why they’re offensive woes won’t extend into the figurative “second half”. The trouble is… your premise is flawed.

You think the Braves have failed to score runs consistently for most of the year because they have lacked “impact power”. But the truth is that a lack of power was not the primary source of their offensive impotency in the first half. The REAL problem was having not one, not two, but THREE near-automatic outs in the lineup.

You can score plenty of runs without a single 30-homerun hitter. Just ask the ’98 Yankees. If you don’t have 2 or 3 huge bats in the middle of the order, that’s just fine, but you need to have a well balanced lineup full of quality hitters. The problem was… the Braves didn’t have either. There were three “Shaq”-sized holes in their lineup.

For the first 2-3 months of the season Jordan Schafer, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur formed an axis-of-feeble. Like a black hole, they sucked the life out of this Atlanta offense. This underachieving trio killed rally after rally, and prevented many others from ever being sparked in the first place. It even managed to turn two of the league’s best starters, Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez, into losing pitchers for a time.

While Atlanta now has more homerun power than many think, and will likely top their first half homerun total by a wide margin, the Braves don’t have multiple mashers in the middle of their lineup. That means that, to some extent, walks, singles, and doubles have to come together in combination in order to score sufficiently and reliably. But when you have THREE members of your lineup who are virtually guaranteed to pull the plug on any potentially productive inning… how can you ever score runs consistently?

You can’t. And they didn’t.

But the Braves plugged one of those holes when they replaced Schafer with all-star Center Fielder, Nate McLouth, in June. And now, in July, they have plugged the other two holes as well. Martin Prado ripped the starting second-base job out of Kelly Johnson’s hands with his recent all-star caliber play. Then, Frank Wren and Co. replaced the floundering Francoeur with the capable right-field platoon of Matt Diaz and Ryan Church (for whom the Braves dealt “Frenchy” to the Mets).

Atlanta’s offense isn’t likely to be among the game’s very best from now until the end of the season. However, I believe this Braves lineup will surprise the naysayers in the second half. Their detractors have failed to recognize the TRUE problem. Therefore, they have yet to notice that it has been fixed. But they will be forced to take note if the Braves continue to climb the ladder in key offensive categories. Atlanta recently jumped from 11th to 8th (out of 16 teams) in the National League in runs scored, and now has the 4th best team batting average in the NL. In my view, smart money says they’ll finish higher than 8th in runs scored by season’s end.

Every single position in the Braves batting order is likely to hit for a solid average, and is capable of delivering 15 homeruns or better. Three positions can deliver 25 or more homeruns. And six of the eight positions are manned by players capable of thumping 40 doubles in a season.

Frank Wren and Bobby Cox now have the lineup they envisioned at the start of spring. There are no 30 homerun bombers… but solid hitters with pop throughout the lineup, 1-8. And more often than not, that will be enough to win behind this Atlanta pitching.

The axis-of-feeble is gone, and better days are ahead.

On Glavine and PR

OK, so the Braves have a damn good rotation. We don’t have room for Tom Glavine, a Hall of Fame lock 43 year old coming off shoulder surgery. We paid him $1M without seeing him pitch and then rehabbed him, only to tell him we didn’t think he had the stuff to make it in our rotation. Now he’s upset, along with a lot of other people.

And one side of me says they’ve got a little room to complain. No, Glavine shouldn’t be on the roster. But maybe we could have told him Hanson gave us a better rotation and we’d prefer to give the young buck a chance.  Maybe Wren didn’t have to comment on his “stuff” and how it wasn’t as good as it used to be. Now, the problem with not commenting on his “stuff” is that the move then looks like a money issue. There was no real easy way out of it for the Braves. And it’s really hard to win with PR when you have a griping Hall of Famer who thinks he still has said “stuff” whining on talk radio. It’s really hard to pick a good position here.

Mark Bradley of the AJC has a good point. We paid him $1M to rehab his shoulder when nobody else would go near him. We gave him a serious look. And now he’s whining.

The bottom line is that Wren shouldn’t have given Glavine a contract without seeing him pitch. That’s a lot of risk to put on the shoulder and elbow of Glavine. And it didn’t pay off – not financially, not in the game of baseball, and certainly not as far as public relations goes.

There’s another side of me that says we owe Glavine no loyalty because he ditched us for the effing Mets. It was about money for you then, Glavine, so shut up and stop whining. You’re coming off as a bitter has-been who can’t admit when his best days are behind him.

We Support Frank Wren; You Should Too

The majority of Atlanta fans were likely on their last nerve the day the news hit that John Smoltz, the face of the Atlanta Braves, was headed to Boston.  It was the seeming icing on the (worst you’ve ever had) cake after being excited and then disappointed about Burnett, Furcal, and Peavy.  Tons of questions were asked about the competency of the front office – it was seemingly obvious that the Braves did not have the front office leadership necessary to turn around the devastating outcome of the 2008 season.

After a rollercoaster ride, extra money in the budget, and nothing to write home about by early January, Braves fans pointed their fingers at the only obvious culprit: Frank Wren.

However, Frank Wren did nothing wrong and likely made some of the best possible decisions for the organization regardless of a very slow start. For every armchair GM out there, take a deep breath, and attempt to figure out how your decisons and trades would have led to a more successful lineup than the one that Wren is about to put in front of us.  Baseball is a business, not a fantasy team roster; and as it has been so bluntly stated before, “If you think there is team loyalty anymore, you’re wrong.”

One Ace (the likes of Peavy or Burnett) was not going to make or break the Braves.  If you would like to argue the necessity for a big name or two on your list of the starting 5, please resort to the optimism and “sure things” of starters from this time last year. Atlanta fans were looking for a safety factor, and saw that in the big names of Burnett and Peavy. Frank Wren was smart enough to look elsewhere – to the consistent arms and proven track records of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and the mystery man, Kenshin Kawakami. Bypassing an Ace for a lesser-known is not a mistake. If you want to talk about investment mistakes, let’s talk about the Yankees and C. C. Sabathia…

John Smoltz is gone. Was this Frank Wren’s fault? The only thing that I blame Frank Wren for in this situation is forgetting Smoltz’s importance to the Braves organization.  As mentioned before, baseball is business.  All names, nostalgia, and emotion aside, in a real business, no one keeps an employee who demands more money but is not sure to have a positive impact or performance. It isn’t logical. If John Smoltz performs beyond expectations, then a bad business decision was made, but hindsight is 20/20.  Shelling out cash for an aging, injury-prone player who may not even come close to expectations is a gamble, especially for a starting pitcher.  Any good businessman does not gamble  – they take logical risks and invest for profit.  That’s exactly what Wren did.

Frank Wren took his time during the off season, neglecting to make big moves quickly. Wren didn’t sit around in Vegas at the Winter Meetings without a plan and certainly didn’t sit by the wayside while many high dollar players went to teams with the cash to pick them up.  Many fans never even took the time to research the options, they just hopped on the big-name bandwagon. When those “picks” didn’t come to fruition, the finger-pointing began.

Can you honestly say that our 4 definite starters upsets you? Can you honestly say that the buzz about Ken Griffey, Jr. joining the outfield is a negative thing for the Braves? Is your idealization of “loyalty” fogging your clear view of the best business decisions for our organization for the short-term and long-term?

Frank Wren looked at the big picture – not at the big name. Atlanta was devastated when Mark Teixeira walked away for more money and a better team. The same scenario likely would have played out with the Aces we hoped would grace Turner Field.  There is no loyalty – not for these guys.  Wren grabbed the players that we could keep, count on, and succeed with.  So, Armchair GM, tell me how your decisions would have been good for both the short-term and long-term team outlook; and how the consistency and hope that we have for the 2009 season would surpass that implemented by Frank Wren.

Schuerholz and Wren Blast Furcal’s Agents

Here are John Schuerholz’s comments to the AJC regarding Furcal’s Agents:

“Having been in this business for 40-some years, I’ve never seen anybody treated like that,” Schuerholz said. “The Atlanta Braves will no longer do business with that company — ever. I told [agent] Arn Tellem that we can’t trust them to be honest and forthright. I told him that in all my years, I’ve never seen any [agency] act in such a despicable manner.

“It was disgusting and unprofessional. We’re a proud organization and we won’t allow ourselves to be treated that way. I advised Arn Tellem that whatever players he represents, just scratch us off the list. Take the name of the Atlanta Braves off their speed dial. They can deal with the other 29 clubs and we’ll deal with the other hundred agents.”

And here is Arn Tellem’s response (We can only assume he’s related to Soulja Boy?) as found on SI.com:

“With regard to the negotiations between the Atlanta Braves and Rafael Furcal, the essential facts are clear and cannot be disputed.

1. “There was never an agreement reached between Rafael Furcal and the Atlanta Braves.

2. “In fact, the Braves were fully aware that Furcal was not prepared to make a decision but had requested an opportunity to sleep on it, before deciding.

3. “Moreover, the baseball rules which all agents and teams operate under are clear that no deal exists between a player and a team unless and until: (i) there is a signed and executed player agreement or; (ii) the Player’s Union and the Commissioner’s office have otherwise confirmed the deal. Neither occurred here.

4. “Furcal ultimately decided to accept the Dodgers’ offer, taking into consideration a number of factors, the most important of which was his desire to continue playing shortstop and not make the position change to second base that the Braves were requiring.

5. “Losing out on an All-Star player like Furcal is always disappointing, and we understand the Braves’ frustration with the outcome of this negotiation, but it does not change in any way the fact that we conducted ourselves with integrity and complied with all rules of major league baseball throughout this process.

6. “Our primary obligation is to serve our clients best interests, and we will continue to do so in accordance with all relevant rules governing MLB negotiations and the utmost integrity.

7. “If it serves our clients, we will continue to present opportunities to the Braves, which in accordance with the rules governing Major League Baseball, the Braves must entertain. We hope that once emotions have subsided, the Braves will act in a manner consistent with not only their obligations under the Collective Bargaining Agreement and The National Labor Relations Act, but also the best interests of the franchise. In short, we would not want this incident to color their better judgment.”

Here’s my two cents (if you care):

Arn Tellem and Paul Kinzer need to realize that business is about trust and relationships. You don’t build a relationship with someone by negotiating a deal, asking for a signed term sheet, and then slapping that same team in the face with the fact you haven’t been upfront about other deals in the making. You don’t make that team want to deal with you. And you pissed off the wrong people – John Schuerholz and Frank Wren are very respected people in baseball. It’s not like we’re the Kansas City Royals.

Remember that all relationships are about trust – from the people you date to you and your boss’ interactions in the office. Build trust by being up front with those people. Don’t blast that trust – because in real life, a 7 point email refuting why they’re pissed off won’t do jack for you. You’ll end up single, without a job, or become someone nobody will rely on. 7 point emails do not make steps towards rebuilding that trust when they don’t apologize for betraying trust.

Arn Tellem and Paul Kinzer, go sell your mediocre players to other teams. I don’t see ANYONE on your player list that we need on the Braves. Also, good luck negotiating with people that have reason to doubt your word now. The whole baseball world will watch their backs around you now. You may not go out of business, but you will see fewer players select your company to represent them because teams will now be wary of your agency now.

Furcal Shuns Braves, Expected to Sign With Dodgers

At this point, we’ll be lucky to have anyone on the roster come Spring. The offseason continues much the way it has begun, with Rafael Furcal shunning the Braves’ contract offer and likely signing with the Dodgers.

Frank Wren said that he and Fucal’s agent Paul Kinzer negotiated all contract details Monday night and sent a term sheet over for Furcal to sign and return Tuesday morning. The term sheet was never returned, and Furcal appears to have reached an agreement with the Dodgers today.

Kinzer, who now reportedly won’t return voice messages left for him by major news outlets, but he said recently that there was no agreement reached Monday night and Furcal was going to sleep on it. By the way, Kinzer’s based in Atlanta, if you want to send him some holiday cheer.

Wren does not expect Furcal to end up in Atlanta. He’s quoted in the AJC as saying “I have not heard anything back yet. I don’t expect anything. What I’m hearing is that he’s going to L.A.”

Nothing is for sure – he could still end up in Atlanta, but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

And so the offseason continues.

Winter Meetings Wishlist

Winter Meetings get under way today in Las Vegas and here’s hoping that the Braves can pull together a few more deals to get the club heading in the right direction for 2009.  It looks like Wren will be using the week to try and fill the two main needs that he has for the Braves in the offseason:

An Ace:
The Braves have had a primary objective this offseason of solidifying the rotation and I don’t think that has been any secret.  Earlier in the offseason, the hype completely surrounded Wren’s offer to acquire Jake Peavy. But after being drawn out for weeks and finally seeing the offer rescinded, the Braves were back at square one trying to fill the front end of the rotation.  Who knows?  Maybe there’s still some veiled hope out there that we manage to acquire him, but I’m not counting on that at all.

Since then, the focus has shifted to AJ Burnett, with Wren laying out a 4-year offer to him late last week.  Burnett’s agent, Darek Braunecker, is in the position to be one of the most popular people at Winter Meetings this week.  As one of the top pitchers on the free-agent market this offseason (aside from CC Sabathia), Burnett has potential interest from the incumbent Blue Jays, Yankees, Orioles and Phillies.  I think the biggest sticking point with the Braves’ offer right now is still the fifth-year option.  Braunecker has repeatedly said that Burnett will “definitely have the opportunity to accept a guaranteed five-year contract”.  He however has also indicated that Atlanta has become an even more attractive option after last week’s signing of Javier Vazquez.

Aside from chasing Burnett, there has been little word of Wren’s other interests in trying to track down an ace of the staff.  Let’s just hope we’re not putting too much hope on one target and that something good comes out of it this week.

A Power-Hitting Outfielder:
Wren has indicated that he is not too interested in the hard-hitting outfielders that are available on the free agent market this offseason.  It just doesn’t seem that the talent or fit needed for the Braves is available, but he’s always keeping an eye out for someone that can bolster the power numbers at the plate next season.  Wren’s focus this week will revolve around finding pitching and he has placed no real deadline for adding power to the outfield.

With such little interest in the free agent market, I’d look for Wren to make a move with a trade to try and fill this role, but I wouldn’t expect that happening until later this offseason, into the first few months of 2009.  Who would you like to see come to Atlanta to fill this role?

So there’s the general update on what we’re looking for Wren to try to track down during Winter Meetings this year.  Look for the big focus to be on pitching, but we’ve been surprised in the past by some moves that we had previously heard little about.  We’ll keep updating as we hear more out of Las Vegas. What’s on your Winter Meetings wishlist for this year?

Give Us A Break: Jurrjens Sprains Ankle

Jair Jurrjens is doing his best Mike Hampton imitation.

Not only is Jurrjens left handed, but he fell walking down the dugout stairs last night after the Braves’ loss to the Cubs and sprained his ankle.  His ankle did not get better overnight and he’ll miss today’s start.  The Braves and Jurrjens hope he doesn’t have to head to the DL to join the rest of the Braves’ pitching staff.

Jurrjens has been perhaps the Braves’ most solid starter this season – not missing a start – until tonight.  Jurrjens’ right ankle will hopefully heal up before his next start, but with the way things have been going, we may just want to go ahead and promote the entire AAA pitching staff.

The Braves also confirmed that Charlie Morton is likely to start Sunday against the Angels in a game televised by ESPN.  Jeff Bennett is stepping in for the Braves tonight.

Frank Wren was quoted as saying “I feel like I’m in the twilight zone.”

Don’t we all, Frank.  What’s next?  Does anyone have Hudson in the “next Brave to miss a start” pool?

Summer Hot Stove Heating Up – Trade Rumors

The Braves are playing amazing baseball at home, but not performing so great on the road. They’re also 2-14 in one-run games, a number that should improve once Smoltz, Soriano, and Gonzalez are all active in the bullpen (I shamelessly stole that line from Jayson Stark). But with the Braves moving John Smoltz from the rotation to the ‘pen, they’re short a starting pitcher. And even though Jo-Jo Reyes and Jorge Campillo are standing in admirably (Campillo more so than Reyes), the Braves are reportedly looking for a starting pitcher.

There are a couple rumors here – one mentioned by the announcers during today’s game involved the highest profile free agent on the team. Reportedly the Braves would send Mark Teixeira to the Cleveland Indians for starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia. Sabathia would provide the depth to the rotation the Braves need (he’s won an average of 15.3 games each of the last three seasons), but the Braves would lose Teixeira and much of the needed protection behind Chipper, who is powering the offense. Sabathia is only 28 and would possibly be harder to resign at season’s end than Teixeira will be – and we can’t count that out. Plus, who would play first? Other rumors include either a top pitching prospect or Jordan Schafer for Sabathia – neither of which make sense for a pitcher with under a year left on his contract.  Don’t forget that if we trade Tex, we have nearly no chance of re-signing him.

The most popular rumor has Greg Maddux coming to Atlanta – something that I don’t think will happen. Frank Wren was very adamant pre-season that he wasn’t looking for a reunion tour of the big three. Now Maddux would be a very popular choice, but he’s older and may not be available for re-signing at the end of the year (no telling when he hangs up the cleats).

Jayson Stark offered his opinion on this earlier today:

“Clubs that have spoken with the Braves say they’re more focused on trying to find a younger starting pitcher they can hang onto for [more than] just the last few months of this season. So think more along the lines of the non-free agents who could pop onto the market…”

Stark goes on to mention Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Bronson Arroyo, and Jeremy Bonderman – but stresses the Braves could be after any pitcher in this category.

I think that the Maddux thing is a bit of a pipe dream as opposed to reality. He’d offer us a good fifth arm in the rotation if Reyes isn’t working out, but I think we’d have to give up too much to get him. I’d much rather see us trade a younger prospect for a pitcher with plenty left in the tank and a few years on his contract. It’s time we start stacking our rotation for tomorrow.

Who would you like to see come to the Braves? Chime in with your opinion and comment below.

Other tidbits: East Coast Bias had a great article today on the Braves one-third of the way through the season. Take a look – very good read.