2010 Braves Extreme Values

Having three of the worst players in the National League would seemingly ruin most teams’ chances of making the playoffs, but not the Atlanta Braves’. While three of their opening day starters (four if you include Derek Lowe) have done their best to continue Atlanta’s postseason absence, three others have been amongst the best in the league. Here are six players, three on each end of the spectrum, that have had the greatest impact on the Braves’ season so far.

The Good

1) Brian McCann (4.9 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 6th in NL)

No one seemed too worried after Brian’s OBP dipped to .349 a season ago and with good reason. His eye problems are seemingly a thing of the past as he has produced a triple slash line of .281/.388./.484 so far this season. The plate discipline is back, and most defensive metrics say he has significantly improved his performance behind the plate as well.

2) Martin Prado (4.0 WAR, tied for 16th in NL)

Many Braves fans were happy to see Kelly Johnson go last off-season. While he has bounced back (in a big way) out in Arizona, Prado has all but matched his output in Atlanta. Although his bat looks better at second, he is clearly more comfortable playing third base, the silver lining of Chipper’s injury.

3) Jason Heyward (3.8 WAR, tied for 23rd in NL)

Undoubtedly the single most important upgrade from last year’s team was the promotion of Jason Heyward. The Braves’ right field, despite Matt Diaz’s best efforts, was a disaster last season. Everything totaled, Francoeur, Diaz, and Ryan Church combined for an OPS of .743 at the position. Heyward’s triple slash line of .278/.389/.475, however, has made the Braves forget about all that. Everyone knew he was going to be something special, just not this good this early.

The Bad

1) Troy Glaus (.4 WAR, 9th worst among all qualified NL players)

Troy’s second half has made May a distant memory, and April seem quite vivid. Bad legs seem to have been his undoing, and the Derrek Lee trade spelled the end of any significant playing time. There is a good chance he has started his last game as an Atlanta Brave.

The Ugly

1) Melky Cabrera (-.6 WAR, dead last among all qualified NL players)

Not much to say here. Francoeur plate discipline + softball power + shoddy glove = worse than a replacement level player. If Frank Wren has any sense, and I believe he has lots of it, Melky will be non-tendered this off season.

2) Nate McClouth (-1.3 WAR, dead last among ALL NL players)

He does not even have enough plate appearances to be qualified, yet he still tops the list for the worst offensive player in the National League. Unfortunately, I just wrote about one of his replacements; the other isn’t much better either. Regardless of what level he plays at next season, the Braves are on the hook to pay him $6.5 million. Oh, and they will have to pay another $1.25 million to buy him out for 2012 as well.

Jason Heyward And Groundballs

Here are the play-by-play accounts of Jason Heyward’s at bats Wednesday night courtesy of ESPN.com:

Bottom of 1st: J Heyward grounded into double play.
Bottom of 3rd: J Heyward grounded out to second.
Bottom of 5th: J Heyward grounded out to shortstop.
Bottom of 6th: J Heyward grounded into fielder’s choice to first.
Bottom of 8th: J Heyward grounded out to first.

While viewing this performance from Section 211 at the Ted, it dawned on me that Jason Heyward does in fact hit a lot of groundballs. Thanks to fangraphs.com’s “batted ball” data, I now know that my amateur scouting report was accurate. Of all the balls Heyward has put into play this season, a whopping 55% have been hit on the ground.

Only nine players have hit a higher percentage of groundballs this season, and the list isn’t pretty: (in order) Derek Jeter, Juan Pierre, Elvis Andrus, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, Denard Span, Skip Schumaker, Hunter Pence, Ryan Theriot.

However, none of these players have an OPS even close to Heyward’s current mark of .823. This is likely because of two reasons; the first of which is because Jason has a higher bat speed than any of the aforementioned players. Because of this, his grounders are hit “harder” and have a better chance of making it through holes in the infield. Likewise, his fly balls are hit deeper, increasing their chances of making it over the fence. Secondly, Jason has more plate discipline than anyone on the list as well, meaning that he draws more walks. Fortunately, groundball percentage is about the only thing Jason has in common with others on the list.

Regardless of the fact that he is clearly a better hitter than any of the aforementioned players, this is not a list that Jason wants to be on. Pitchers want Jason to hit the ball on the ground, and he is obliging them. In his last 207 plate appearances, he has hit only 1 homerun. Compare this to his first 185 plate appearances in which he hit 10. Remember those majestic bombs he hit back in April and May? They show he is capable of being the power hitter Braves fans yearn for, but he will have to develop into such. In over 1000 minor league plate appearances, Heyward only hit 29 long balls. An old scout’s adage tells us that power is the last tool to develop. Well Jason clearly has it; he just needs to use it by hitting the ball into the air more.

At The Break As The Best Team In The National League

If only this Atlanta Braves team could do everything I wished for, we’d be set for years to come.  Ten days ago, with 9 important division games standing between the Braves and the All-Star Break, I asked for 3 series wins to finish out the front half of the season. Sure enough, here we are at the break after doing just that.  The Braves took 2-1 series wins over the Marlins, Phillies and Mets bringing the team record to 52-36 to this point.

The Braves sit 4 games atop the National League East with a 4 game lead over the Mets and a 4.5 game lead over the Phillies.  The  Marlins and Nationals round out the division 10 and 13.5 games back respectively.

The first half of the season was far from perfect however.  We’ve tried our best to forget about the abysmal baseball the Braves were playing in April, culminating with a 9-game losing streak.  Injuries have hampered the team at times.  Heyward and Diaz have missed time along with Jair Jurrjens.  Diaz and Jurrjens have recently returned to the squad and things are looking up on that front.  Jason Heyward has decided to sit out in his first All-Star selection to rest his injured thumb.  He should be back in the lineup for the Braves shortly after the break and hopefully picking up where he left off before the injury.

It’s a much needed break for the team, with the exception of the Braves’s 5 All-Stars (6 counting Billy Wagner who will not take part in All-Star festivities).  Here’s hoping the team will come out firing on all cylinders after the break, much like they did in the 2009 season.   It’s great to see winning baseball back in Atlanta and like I said, if the Braves just keep winning series, there will be a little extra baseball around the Ted come October.

Braves Snag Five All-Star Spots

When all was said and done with All-Star voting, the Atlanta Braves walked away with five selections for the 81st All-Star game, held in Anaheim on July 13th.  Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Tim Hudson, Omar Infante and Martin Prado will all represent the Braves in the Midsummer Classic.

Jason Heyward is the second youngest player to ever be selected to start in an All-Star Game.  Though on the disabled list, Heyward will be activated before the game.  He will travel to Anaheim but will likely not play in the game.

Martin Prado received his first All-Star selection after a dominant first half of the season where he lead the NL in batting average and MLB in total hits.  Prado placed second in voting to Chase Utley, who has been disabled with a thumb injury.  As a result, Prado will likely start the game for the National League.

This is also the first All-Star selection for Omar Infante, whose selection came as a surprise.  Charlie Manuel added Infante to the National League roster on account of the versatility he provides in a utility role for the Braves.

Tim Hudson received his third trip to the All-Star Game, but his first with the Braves.  He last represented the A’s in the 2004 game.  After returning from Tommy John surgery last sesason, Hudson has compiled an 8-3 record and posted a 2.37 ERA in 2010.

Brian McCann receives his fifth All-Star selection in his fifth full season in the majors.  Though his production is down from 2009, McCann still leads all NL catchers in batting average.

The Braves have a chance to send a 6th player to the Midsummer Classic in the form of Billy Wagner.  He has been selected as one of the five NL Final Vote competitors, where the fans have the opportunity to select the final player on the team roster.  Wagner is facing off against Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez and Heath Bell.

There would be no better send-off in Wagner’s final season, where he has served as a dominant closer for the Braves, than an All-Star selection.  Vote now to get Wagner in the All-Star Game!

All Eyes On Jair Jurrjens… Hudson’s Dominance and Heyward’s Thumb

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington talks about the return of Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson’s dominance, and Jason Heyward’s thumb. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

Heyward Will Sit Out All-Star Game

I know I was hard on him earlier, but Jason Heyward just made me glad his head is screwed on straight – he said that, if chosen, he’ll sit out the All-Star game.

And this is why he’s more mature than most kids his age.

Most kids his age would want to go take the fame and glamour that comes with being selected as an All-Star in your first season. Heyward will be eligible to come off the DL before the All-Star game and could likely play with no risk to the remainder of the season. Despite this, Heyward is showing his maturity and his devotion to the team and electing not to play in the All-Star game.

Good on you, Jason. I’ll be the first to say that we appreciate not just you prioritizing the rest of the season with the Braves, but knowing you’re not after personal glory. You fit here in Atlanta, and we appreciate that.

Listen Here, Jason Heyward

I think it’s time to bitch at Jason Heyward just a bit.

Jason is an incredibly important part of the offense this season – batting second behind Prado and before Chipper means he’s a crucial part of setting the table. That’s not to mention the number of clutch hits he’s had and the power and run production he’s shown off this year.

The fact is simply that now he’s out for two more weeks (not to mention his .172 average for the 24 games prior). Now, I’m the first one to admit that Jason Heyward is even more valuable because he’s a threat on the base paths, but we need to change this sliding headfirst thing. That’s what led to this injury – sliding head first into third base.

I know it’s probably something he’s done his entire baseball career, but it’s time to change that. He’s too valuable now. We can afford to miss him for two weeks when Chipper and McCann are starting to pick up some of the slack. But once he’s anchoring the offensive production of the team and protecting people in the lineup, not to mention making millions of dollars, he can’t be batting .172 for three weeks and then sitting out two just because he’s too stubborn to learn to slide feet first. I don’t know why in the hell none of his minor league coaches made him switch, but it’s time now.

It’s time to slide feet first, Jason. Learn to do it. You’ve got too much potential power and run producing capability to be effectively useless for five weeks. Your hands are too important to throw them in the way of danger like that. Figure it out.

Heyward To DL; Kawakami To Bullpen

The good news first.  Jason Heyward won’t require surgery on the thumb that has been bothering him since injuring it sliding into third on May 14th.  The bad news? Heyward has been placed on the 15-day disabled list and will have the thumb put in a cast tomorrow for a week.

An MRI this morning revealed a deep bone bruise and a strain at the base of a ligament in the thumb where it attached to the bone.  I’m not considering this to actually be bad news.  Heyward has needed the extended rest for the thumb for quite awhile and hopefully this will get him through down the stretch.  It won’t be until the extended rest of the offseason that the injury fully heals.  Matt Diaz will be activated off of the disabled list to take Heyward’s spot on the roster.

The Braves also indicated that Kenshin Kawakami would be heading to the bullpen when Jair Jurrjens is activated from the disabled list to make his first start since April on Wednesday.

Heyward Admits Thumb A Problem

When Stephen Strasburg starts for the Washington Nationals on Monday, Jason Heyward might not be in the lineup. No, he’s not afraid of Strasburg. Rather, Heyward today admitted finally that his thumb was bothering him more than he’s let on. He first tweaked it on May 14  sliding headfirst into third base.

In the last 24 games, Heyward has hit only .172 and has struck out 33% of his at-bats, which leads to the question “Why did the Braves not see that this was an issue and sit him before now?”

Good question. Our very own Kent Covington brought up the thumb injury in an audio blog a week ago.

One thought is that Terry Pendleton and Bobby Cox are letting the Heyward learn a lesson about when to let nagging injuries heal and when to play through them. To me, it appears as though the youngster has been trying to do too much lately – he so badly wants the team on his shoulders that his home run cuts and nagging thumb have led to his current slump.

Fortunately for the Braves, others have carried the team. Hopefully Heyward has learned his lesson when it comes to playing through nagging injuries.

Braves’ Best Decisions of Past Year

Jon Heyman of SI.com wrote an article hailing the top 20 baseball decisions made this year. Three of ‘em are the decisions of your very own Atlanta Braves. Let’s take a look and see if these are truly the top 3 decisions made by Frank Wren and team.

• #10 – The decision to start Jason Heyward in Atlanta in 2010
• #15 – The decision to get rid of Kelly Johnson and start Martin Prado
• #17 – Resigning Tim Hudson

Now while I’ll agree that all three of these have been absolutely crucial to the Braves’s success in 2010, I’d add a couple more to the list.

• Signing Troy Glaus. Without Glaus in the middle of the lineup to provide some additional protection for the top of the lineup, where would the Braves be? Would Heyward be doing as well if the lineup weren’t as potent behind him? Glaus has been the offensive key the Braves have been missing in past years, and his .400 batting average (and .600 slugging percentage) with 2 outs and runners in scoring position has him a near lock for the comeback player of the year.
• Signing Billy Wagner. Wags (or The Sandman, if you prefer) has been absolutely dominant this year. If you haven’t seen him pitch in person this season, you’re missing out on how dominant he is. Having Wagner at the back of the Braves’ bullpen has certainly been one of the keys to success this season.

Those are the other decisions I’d put with Heyman’s three to round out the top five decisions of 2010. Ranking which decisions are most important to the Braves’ current success is difficult though. How would you rank ‘em?

Jason Heyward: Should The Braves Be Concerned?

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington talks about the recent struggles of Jason Heyward and whether or not we should be worried about his health. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

Audio clip: Adobe Flash Player (version 9 or above) is required to play this audio clip. Download the latest version here. You also need to have JavaScript enabled in your browser.

Jason Heyward Wins Second Consecutive Rookie Of the Month Award

Jason Heyward was voted Rookie of the Month once again for the month of May, as reported by Dave O’Brien of the AJC on his twitter:

@ajcbraves Glaus NL player of month. Heyward NL rookie of month. Sweeps all around

Yep, Troy Glaus also won NL Player of the Month. I will be talking about Glaus’ May and his importance to the team’s surge on my podcast tomorrow night.

Here is his Jason Heyward’s May line:

.337 avg, .453 obp, .628 slg, 1.081 ops, 4 homers, 7 doubles, 3 triples, 19 rbi, 19 runs, 16 walks, and 3 stolen bases.

Heyward is off to one of the best starts for any 20 year old ever. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs points out, the only players who have done this well at such a young age are Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, and Mickey Mantle. All of these players are Hall-of-Famers aside from Alex Rodriguez, who is well on his way to a Hall-of-Fame career despite performance enhancement usage.

Heyward has had a great first two months and at this point it would be a shock if he did not run away with the Rookie of the Year award. As I noted last week, not only is Jason in contention for the Rookie of the Year award, he is right there in the MVP award as well.

Jason’s dominance is certainly only a thing to come and as a player with such a combination of power, patience, and bat control, the sky is the limit for this youngster.