Make The Minor Move: Bring Minor To The Majors

After Kris Medlen’s elbow injury last night resulting in him leaving the game, there’s cause for concern that he’s out for the year. We’ll find out more after an MRI today.

Now the question arises: what happens with Medlen’s rotation spot for the start that he’ll miss? Since he just won the fifth rotation spot from Kawakami, do we just let Kenshin back into the rotation? He has only pitched once since being taken out of the rotation – we don’t want to use him – and there are rumors that we might want him to accept a minor league assignment (though it might hurt our chances with signing future Japanese players). Or do we promote Mike Minor, the top pitching prospect at the AAA level.

Minor is having a great first full pro season – in 118 2/3 innings at AA Mississippi and AAA Gwinnett, he’s posted a 3.41 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 144K’s with only 44 BB’s. He’s part of the rotation of the future and has been starting regularly unlike Kawakami.

My plea to the Braves is thus: Please make Minor the fifth starter. Kawakami has had his chance and blew it – send him to AAA for some regular pitching and let Minor fill in on the back half of the rotation in the bigs.

Bring Minor to the Majors.

Countdown To The All-Star Break: 9 Important Games

The Atlanta Braves have 3 series remaining until the All-Star break.  That’s 9 games left to make one last first half statement to the rest of the league.  Why are these games so important?  They’re all against teams in the NL East.  We kick off tonight for 3 games against the Marlins and then head to Philadelphia and New York for 3 games each against the Phillies and the Mets.

In the last 16 series, the Braves are 13-1-2 and currently sit with a 46-33 record on the season.  The Marlins series won’t be an easy one however as we’re catching the dominant portion of the Florida pitching staff.  On the bright side, however, the Braves are sending some top performers to the mound as well in the series.  Tonight Josh Johnson (8-3, 1.83) faces off against Kris Medlen (5-1 (4-0 as a starter), 3.15).  Kris’s first start as an official member of the starting rotation, now that Kenshin Kawakami has taken a role in the bullpen, will have to be a good one.  Hopefully the offense can help him out and get Johnson, who is tied with Ubaldo Jiminez for the best ERA in MLB, out of the game before the 7th.

Saturday’s matchup will be Anibal Sanchez (7-4, 3.18) against Tommy Hanson (7-5, 4.50).  Hanson has struggled as of late, getting knocked around pretty solidly in a few of his recent outings.  Roger McDowell is confident Hanson will spring back, but all eyes will be on him to see if he can get back to dominant form.  If not, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see Kawakami on for him in long relief.  The final game of the series will bring Ricky Nolasco (7-6, 4.84) in to face off against Tim Hudson (8-3, 2.37).  On paper, this game favors the Braves as Hudson has been unstoppable lately and Nolasco likes to give up the long ball (19 in 16 outings this season), but he has won his last two.  Anything can happen.

I’m looking for the Braves to continue their dominance at Turner Field this weekend (their 28-9 home record is the best in MLB) and take care of business with the Marlins.  I’ll be happy with 3 more series victories heading into the All-Star break which would give us a record of at least 52-36 before the break, but why stop there?  I’ll settle for a sweep or two.

State Of The Braves Heading Into July

After the hottest of Mays, the Braves were forced to turn their calendars to June (despite consistent urging from Chip Carey) and have seemingly left their past struggles in the month behind. The Braves have gone 17-11 in the month despite having to deal with significant injuries, including the loss of their All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth who in 2008 batted…never mind. All joking aside, here are the reasons why I believe the Braves more than survived June as well as some concerns looking forward.

1) Martin Prado, Troy Glaus, and Kris Medlen

After a ridiculous April in which he reached base over 42% of his plate appearances, Martin Prado came back down to earth in May. At some point during the month Jerome Jurenovich suggested that he should be starting the All-Star game; I almost fell off the couch laughing. Of course at that point Chase Utley was on fire, and I could never have foreseen the power surge Prado has had. While posting an OPS of .947, Prado led all National League second basemen with 14 extra base hits in the month of June. He now boasts the highest OPS amongst all NL second baggers and almost unquestionably deserves to start the All-Star game. With Utley on the DL and Prado leading the majors in hits, this seems very likely.

Troy Glaus has been no slouch either. A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I would rather have a former Brave who sometimes forgets that he is playing baseball while in the field over TG. I no longer feel this way. After being named National League POTM in May, Glaus has continued to swing a hot bat in June. Although his OBP dipped, he still belted 8 doubles and 6 homeruns to tie Prado for the team lead in extra base hits for the month. He also came close to stopping a couple of balls hit to his left (wink wink).

While Tim Hudson’s numbers are spectacular, I would argue Kris Medlen has been better. According to Baseball Prospectus’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), which is basically a stat that shows how lucky Ubaldo Jimenez is, Medlen has out performed Huddy and ranks 33rd in the category amongst all Major League pitchers with at least 70 IP. Perhaps more importantly for the Braves, Medlen has been their saving grace in the absence of Jair Jurrjens and will now allow them to move Kenshin Kawakami to the bullpen.

2) J-Hey to the DL and Big Red struggles

On May 30th Jason Heyward’s OPS was 1.017, tops in the National League. Since then Heyward has struggled mightily, posting an OPS of .532 in June while striking out a whopping 32 times. While the Braves and Jason cite his injured left thumb as the reason for his struggles, I doubt this to be the sole reason. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com pointed out in a recent article, Heyward was on fire for the first fifteen games after jamming his thumb which hardly seemed to be bothering him then. While it apparently got worse, it seemingly became an issue only after he started struggling. Hopefully rest will allow Jason to regain his stroke and return to his spectacular form.

While Tommy Hanson has struggled in his past two starts, I see little reason for concern. His K/BB ratio is slightly better than it was a year ago as he is striking out a batter an inning, and his BABIP is a ridiculously high .347. This is simply a product of bad luck and will almost certainly come down. Two bad starts in a row is not a trend, it is merely an aberration. As long as his velocity remains constant (and according to pitch FX it has) there is nothing to worry about.

Despite their success so far this season, the Braves could easily finish third in the NL East. While I think they are still the favorites to win it at this point, anything can happen over the course of the next three months. Hopefully the return of Jurrjens and the recovery of Heyward will be more than enough for the team to distance themselves from the ailing Phillies and overachieving Mets in July.

Kenshin Kawakami’s Last Stand

Kenshin Kawakami has taken his 0-9 record to the mound at Turner Field this afternoon in what I hope is his last start in the Atlanta Braves starting rotation.  With Jair Jurrjens hoping to take the start on Wednesday, someone has to head to the bullpen.  It’s been tossed back and forth around here about whether that should be Kawakami or Kris Medlen, but decision time is finally coming near.

Medlen’s coming off of another strong start last night, pitching 6 2/3 innings on one-run baseball.  This brings his record as a starter to 4-0 and brought his ERA on the season to a 3.15.  In the 9 starts Medlen has made for the Braves this season, 6 of them have been quality starts and the team record is 8-1.

Kawakami, on the other hand, has made 14 starts and also has 6 quality starts on the season.  The team record in those starts is 4-10.  The argument has long been that Kawakami isn’t getting run support from the Braves offense (which is somewhat true as he has received 28 runs of support this season; an average of 2 runs per game), but the big picture is that he’s just not winning games.

All things considered, I hope the game today goes well for Kawakami and that he can get a win or at least a no-decision so that he doesn’t have to leave the rotation at 0-10.  Hopefully the Braves can find value for him in a long relief role in the pen to help the team out down the stretch.  I just don’t feel there’s any choice to be made between Medlen and Kawakami based on performance.  Medlen has earned the job.

Kawakami or Medlen? The Answer May Suprise You

After posting yesterday that it was time for Kenshin Kawakami to leave the starting rotation for the Atlanta Braves, we kicked off the battle between those who say KK should go to the bullpen when Jair Jurrjens returns and those who think Kris Medlen should move back.  Browsing around the web, it seems that there are a number of supporters of each option, although, here on BravesBlast, 73% of poll takers think that KK should lose his starting job as opposed to 22% for Medlen.

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington addresses the flaming arrows aimed at Braves’ starter, Kenshin Kawakami, and solves the dilemma of who to send to the ‘pen upon Jair jurrjens’ return. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Kenshin Kawakami: Time to Pull the Plug

Kenshin Kawakami started last night. He went 5 innings and allowed 5 runs (only 2 of them earned, thanks to a plethora of errors), and landed his ninth loss of the season. Yes, that’s right, we have an 0-9 pitcher still in our starting rotation. Which I’m OK with, because Jair Jurrjens is still going through rehab. But let’s be honest, it’s time to pull the plug on Kawakami’s time in the rotation.

Once Jurrjens returns, he gets his starting rotation slot back. That’s not negotiable. But then who goes to the ‘pen and who stays in the rotation? Chris Resop helped matters by going 2 innings last night and giving up 5 earned runs. There’s no doubt HE isn’t our fifth starter. So does Medlen go back from whence he came or does Kawakami get the boot? Let’s look at some stats stripped of their owner.

Pitcher 2 has gotten a little bit unlucky with run support, yes. But overall, Pitcher 1 is better across the board. Any of us would pick Pitcher 1 (who I’m sure you’ve figured out is Kris Medlen) over Pitcher 2. And Medlen is in his stride – he was absolutely dominant against the Twins in his last start. Medlen’s K/BB ratio (not included above) is 4.40, and Kawakami’s is 2.00. The bottom line is that Medlen is a better pitcher, more solid, and even though Kawakami has been unlucky, just a better pitcher. Medlen deserves the fifth starter slot. Period.

I’ve made the argument that we should be patient with Kawakami because we want to be able to sign other Japanese players, but I think we’ve been patient enough. It’s time to go with the best option we’ve got, and that’s not Kenshin, for all his effort.

Braves Should Trade For Nick Johnson

Here’s the deal. Jeff Schultz of the AJC wrote earliera bout how the Braves haven’t made a move and yet all the contenders are making deals. Right now the Marlins – one of the only other contending teams that has yet to make a move – is reported to have offered a minor league pitcher for first baseman Nick Johnson.

The Braves need to move. They need a bat. Standing pat will, mark my words, leave us at home and out of the playoffs. Pitching alone wins – but not enough for the Braves – as far back as we are and as upgraded as the contenders look to be – we need a bat to augment our pitching staff.

Here’s the deal: Braves trade for Nick Johnson. Offer Jo-Jo Reyes. Kris Medlen. Hell, give ‘em Casey Kotchman. Johnson plays for a few months, propels the Braves to the postseason, and splits in free agency (bound to happen). Braves play Barbaro Canizares and Martin Prado at 1B next season, give youth their chance to shine, and bring up Freddie Freeman either late next year or the 2011 season. That’s the plan to get to Freeman, who is one of the Braves’ top prospects.

But we want to win. We’re so close. We just need to win a LOT really FAST. And we need a bat to do it.

Nick Johnson is the man. Let’s rent a first base slugger for a few months. Let’s do it. I want to play postseason ball in Atlanta again. With a staff like this, we’re hard to beat in the postseason, but we have to get there first.

Braves’ Pitching Abounds

The Braves starting pitching continues to excel this season – and while Frank Wren searches for some more offense to back up the staff, the Braves are not lacking in starting pitching depth.

Derek Lowe is 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA (8 quality starts), Jair Jurrjens is 5-2 with a beautiful 2.59 ERA (7 quality starts), and Javier Vazquez is doing ok – he has an even 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA (7 quality starts). Behind that, Kenshin Kawakami appears to be struggling at 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA, but you’d be having trouble too if you only got an average of 1.7 runs scored per game when you were pitching. With such lousy run support, it’s a wonder Kawakami has three wins.

Glavine is ready to come to Atlanta and start. Whether or not he’ll be good, we’ll see. He’s ready though. Kris Medlen had two rough starts but was great in his last start as he struck out nine in six innings of work. He may just have a chance to stick around and prove he has the stuff he needs to excel in the majors. And of course we have Tommy Hanson honing his skills in Gwinnett, waiting to make the 45 minute drive south and show us his stuff. Oh, and Tim Hudson is on track for a return in August or September.

So what happens now? We’ve got Tommy ready to pitch, Medlen to give some playing time to, Hanson to fit in, and 2 pitchers that are doing alright.

I think the odd man out, interestingly enough, is Javier Vazquez. He has a high strikeout rate, but the Braves give him the most run support while he’s on the mound (5.5 runs per game) and yet he’s only 4-4 – and the Braves are only .455 when he gets the ball. To give you an idea of how bad that is, the Braves are .400 with Jo-Jo Reyes starting. Kawakami needs more run support, but with that run support he’ll likely be much better. He could end up being the odd man out too.

Who’s the odd man out? What does our rotation/bullpen look like at the end of the year?

Medlen Called Up

Kris Medlen, a right handed starting pitcher from AAA Gwinnett, is being called up to the big leagues. Medlen will make his major league debut Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies. He’ll replace Jo-Jo Reyes in the rotation – Reyes will be moved to the bullpen and a reliever will be moved from the roster. The Braves have not yet announced who that will be as of the time of writing.

Medlen, 23 years old, is 5-0 with a 0.96 ERA for AAA Gwinnett. He received the call over Tommy Hanson, whom I’m sure we’ll see in time. Hanson is 1-3 with a 1.99 ERA. Medlen will do quite alright, hopefully. He’s currently in the middle of a 21 inning scoreless streak. Bobby Cox assessed Medlen as a player with “three plus pitches” and “quick as a cat.” Medlen has apparently picked off a handful of runners already this year.

Medlen reacted with “I’m completely and utterly shocked.” Apparently he thought Hanson was first in line for the bigs too. We’ll see Hanson with time – but no need to rush him when we’ve got stock like Medlen waiting for prime time.

Heyward, Prospects Invited to Camp

We got this mailbag question from Brandon today – figured it meshed well with the Braves inviting the top prospects to camp. We’re slapping it into one article and calling it… well… an article on Jason Heyward and other prospects.

I was just recently looking around and came across some top prospects and saw a RF named Jason Heyward. Who is this and how far is he away from the majors?

We need to become familiar with Jason Heyward. MLB.com ranked him as the third best prospect in all of baseball after just one season with the Braves last year.  The 18 year old 6’4″, 230 lb Georgia native played at Class A Rome last year. He batted .323 with 52 RBIs, an .871 OPS and 11 HRs before moving on to Myrtle Beach, where he only played 7 games. He’s pinned as an All-Star and has drawn comparisons to Dave Parker and Willie McCovey. He runs the bases well, covers ground well in the outfield and has a great arm. He’s probably 2-3 years away, but he’s going to be a star in the outfield, if all goes according to plan.

Heyward was invited to Spring Training as a non-roster invitee. Also invited were our friend Jordan Schafer, promising Class A first baseman Freddie Freeman and top pitching prospects Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen.  These are the top 5 prospects for the Braves this spring.  There’s a possibility that we see Schafer and Hanson on the roster coming out of spring training, but Schafer may start the year at AAA with Hanson. I think we’ll see Hanson on the roster before the year’s end – don’t know about Schafer with the crowded outfield picture still not completely clear, but we could easily see him as well.

Hope that gives ya some more information on Heyward, Brandon. We’ll see them in spring training and look forward to watching them grow.  We’ll hopefully be pulling in some interviews sooner rather than later with at least one of the guys that got invited to camp. We’ve got a few surprises up our sleeves.