2010 Braves Predictions

Written by Kent on April 3, 2010 – 1:11 pm

It won’t be long now. The Ted is officially open for business and opening day is just hours away. This is the EXACT same feeling I used to get a day or two before Christmas as a kid. Just doesn’t get any better than opening day for a true baseball fan. With spring training coming to a close, I thought I’d pass along my official Atlanta Braves predictions for 2010.

NOTE: The following predictions assume relatively good health for each and every player. I fully realize that health isn’t something that can be assumed at all, but I won’t attempt to predict who will or will not be healthy.

STARTING LINEUP:

AVG HR RBI 2B OBP SB
1 - McLouth (CF) .266 21 63 38 .353 24
2 - Prado (2B) .302 16 68 42 .357 4
3 - Jones (3B) .306 22 83 26 .404 4
4 - Glaus (1B) .263 28 102 30 .361 0
5 - McCann (C) .306 26 94 41 .376 3
6 - Escobar (SS) .296 17 75 28 .375 6
7 - Heyward (RF) .287 24 90 34 .367 15
8 - *Diaz (LF) .304 16 77 27 .382 12
AVERAGES: .291 21 81 33 .372 8
TOTALS: .290 170 650 288 .372 68

*This is provided that M.Diaz receives at least 450 AB’s. He may not reach that total if he is forced to share significant time with M.Cabrera (or potentially even Jordan Schafer later in the year).

STARTING ROTATION:

W-L ERA INN K’s QS
Jurrjens 18-9 2.72 209 161 25
Hudson 16-9 3.27 204 163 23
Hanson 17-7 2.83 214 204 23
Lowe 14-11 3.67 207 130 21
Kawakami 12-10 3.76 170 122 17

BULLPEN:

ERA INN K’s Saves
Wagner 2.83 69 84 31
Saito 2.72 65 67 8
Moylan 2.21 71 62 2
O’Flaherty 3.26 55 40 0
Medlen 4.27 53 62 0

NOTE: I’m only projecting only the 5 relievers who are relatively certain to man the bullpen though the entire season.

TEAM ERA: 3.40

Runs Scored: 787

Record: 94-68

While the individual player predictions above assume a healthy season from that particular player, the projected record and other team predictions take into account a typical degree of wear and tear.  Feel free to chime in with your 2 cents and predictions of your own. And let’s get some hardball goin’ y’all!


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Posted in Speculation | 14 Comments »

Braves Answer Spring Training Lineup Questions

Written by Kent on March 28, 2010 – 7:08 am

Every Major League Baseball team enters spring training with the goal of finding answers to a variety of questions. Some of the questions surrounding the 2010 Atlanta Braves were never considered points of concern at all by Braves officials, but these doubts and queries made their way around the blogosphere nonetheless. So with only a week or so remaining in the ’10 Grapefruit League season, let’s take a look at the questions raised in regard to these Braves and what answers pre-season play has provided. We’ll start with the Braves lineup today and will address the pitching Q&A’s later this week.

Q. Is Troy Glaus’ shoulder healthy and strong enough to allow him to return to ’08 form?

A. Glaus’ shoulder IS healthy and strong. The Braves were confident in his health long before now, or they never would have signed him to be their everyday First-Baseman in the first place. And the 33 year-old slugger’s spring has provided further confirmation of his health. He has hit close to .400 through in 37 spring at-bats, in addition to drawing 10 walks. Though he has hit the ball hard, he has yet to homer this spring, but Braves fans need not be alarmed. We’re talking about a guy who has never hit fewer than 27 homers in a full season of play… a HR total he reached as recently as 2008, before spending most of ’09 on the shelf. Now that he’s healthy and strong, there is no reason to doubt the power threat that he represents in the middle of the Braves’ order.

Bear in mind also that numerous sluggers, including perennial 40-homer threats like Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder and Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn, have yet to hit a pre-season homerun. So long as Glaus remains healthy, you can likely pencil him in for something close to 30 HR’s.

Q. What does Chipper have left in the tank?

A. This question cannot be fully answered in the pre-season; however, he has looked very good to this point with a spring average of over .300 and a mammoth homerun to his credit. Chipper spent a good bit of time in the weight room over the winter and reported to camp noticeably bigger and stronger, and it appears his hard work has already begun to pay off. Braves officials remain convinced that his poor second-half ’09 numbers were simply the result of a prolonged slump (it can happen to the best of them) and in no way an indication of deteriorating skills. That would be my guess as well. Only time will tell, but so far, so good.

Q. Is Jason Heyward ready for the Show?

A. Yes. Heyward’s raw talent and physical maturity put him on the big league radar sooner than most, but it was his personal maturity and advanced approach to the game that ultimately sold Braves’ officials on his readiness.

Many have argued that it would have been more prudent to hold Heyward at AAA for the early part of the season in order to avoid negative financial/contractual implications down the road. However, I would respond to that assertion with a question: “Could having Heyward in the lineup on April 5th – as opposed to weeks or months into the season – make the difference in even just 1 or 2 wins?” I believe the answer is YES. And in a division that could easily be decided by 1 or 2 games (as is always the case with the Wild Card), can the Braves really afford NOT to have their very best team on the field from day-1?

Working from the assumption that he’s ready to make a difference at the big league level, to hold Heyward out of the Atlanta lineup for any period of time is to risk missing the playoffs again THIS year… in order to have a better chance in 2016 or 2017. The Braves made the correct call.

Q. What’s wrong with Nate McLouth, and will he bounce back?

A. This is the one question that was born during this spring, after the Braves’ Center-Fielder was found buried in a rather ugly 1-for-35 slump. McLouth endured a lingering hamstring injury after his mid-season trade to Atlanta last season, but reported to camp healthy this year and with improved focus, thanks to a visit to the eye doc and new set of contact lenses. With healthy legs and enhanced vision, expectations were high for McLouth before his spring struggles began to deeply concern many observers, including me. Fortunately, he appears to returning to form. Over his last three Grapefruit League games, he is 4 for his last 9 with a homerun.


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Posted in General | 10 Comments »

The Issues From The Nats Series

Written by Rue on April 12, 2009 – 7:53 pm

Fans at Turner Field definitely got their money’s worth this weekend during the Braves 2009 opening series versus the Washington Nationals. From torrential downpours, hail and extra innings to watching our favorites hit in run after run, the Braves definitely left many of us feeling a little better after a topsy-turvy off-season. However, I don’t want to talk about Frenchie’s two triples, or Kelly Johnson’s home run, or a standard Chipper Jones RBI or two. These are things that should be expected from the names that front the Braves organization. After all, constructive criticism is what facilitates positive change – so let’s look at where we fell short.

First point of discussion: should the Braves have expected to sweep the Nationals? Or is it more a taste of what is to come for the remainder of the season? Are we just getting warmed up, or are we the type of team that just squeaks on by? Or did we more than squeak by?

Second point: should we keep our lineup the way that it is? During games, I do regular score-keeping. I scored the Friday and Saturday games and noticed that at a certain point in the batting order, we tend to leave runners on base. Francoeur did a wonderful job today showing us what we used to love about him – two triples, but let’s look at the big picture. Yes, he hit that homer in Philadelphia, but Frenchy’s OBP is only 0.269, and on Saturday, he was 0-4 with a walk.

Matt Diaz is more impressive than we’re giving him credit for. He’s not turning out incredible stats, but keep your eyes on him. He has a higher on base percentage than Francoeur, and has dropped some of those extra pounds so is showing a lot more speed. Jordan Schafer is living up to his hype and was beyond impressive on Saturday night in my book. Anyone complaining about his strikeouts better not claim that makes him inferior to his predecessor, Andruw Jones, or less of a young attribute than Jeff Francoeur. So far, the Braves’ weak spots are not what anyone would have expected. Statistically speaking, Francoeur, McCann, and Kotchman are where we see those LOB stats add up, with the lowest on-base percentages. Do we break that up, move it around, keep it, change it? Or is it too early to tell?

As an armchair GM, what changes would you propose? Would you change the lineup? Where are we falling short? What should we be noticing but aren’t praising?


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Posted in Game Analysis | 7 Comments »

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