2010 Braves Extreme Values

Having three of the worst players in the National League would seemingly ruin most teams’ chances of making the playoffs, but not the Atlanta Braves’. While three of their opening day starters (four if you include Derek Lowe) have done their best to continue Atlanta’s postseason absence, three others have been amongst the best in the league. Here are six players, three on each end of the spectrum, that have had the greatest impact on the Braves’ season so far.

The Good

1) Brian McCann (4.9 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 6th in NL)

No one seemed too worried after Brian’s OBP dipped to .349 a season ago and with good reason. His eye problems are seemingly a thing of the past as he has produced a triple slash line of .281/.388./.484 so far this season. The plate discipline is back, and most defensive metrics say he has significantly improved his performance behind the plate as well.

2) Martin Prado (4.0 WAR, tied for 16th in NL)

Many Braves fans were happy to see Kelly Johnson go last off-season. While he has bounced back (in a big way) out in Arizona, Prado has all but matched his output in Atlanta. Although his bat looks better at second, he is clearly more comfortable playing third base, the silver lining of Chipper’s injury.

3) Jason Heyward (3.8 WAR, tied for 23rd in NL)

Undoubtedly the single most important upgrade from last year’s team was the promotion of Jason Heyward. The Braves’ right field, despite Matt Diaz’s best efforts, was a disaster last season. Everything totaled, Francoeur, Diaz, and Ryan Church combined for an OPS of .743 at the position. Heyward’s triple slash line of .278/.389/.475, however, has made the Braves forget about all that. Everyone knew he was going to be something special, just not this good this early.

The Bad

1) Troy Glaus (.4 WAR, 9th worst among all qualified NL players)

Troy’s second half has made May a distant memory, and April seem quite vivid. Bad legs seem to have been his undoing, and the Derrek Lee trade spelled the end of any significant playing time. There is a good chance he has started his last game as an Atlanta Brave.

The Ugly

1) Melky Cabrera (-.6 WAR, dead last among all qualified NL players)

Not much to say here. Francoeur plate discipline + softball power + shoddy glove = worse than a replacement level player. If Frank Wren has any sense, and I believe he has lots of it, Melky will be non-tendered this off season.

2) Nate McClouth (-1.3 WAR, dead last among ALL NL players)

He does not even have enough plate appearances to be qualified, yet he still tops the list for the worst offensive player in the National League. Unfortunately, I just wrote about one of his replacements; the other isn’t much better either. Regardless of what level he plays at next season, the Braves are on the hook to pay him $6.5 million. Oh, and they will have to pay another $1.25 million to buy him out for 2012 as well.

Braves Snag Five All-Star Spots

When all was said and done with All-Star voting, the Atlanta Braves walked away with five selections for the 81st All-Star game, held in Anaheim on July 13th.  Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Tim Hudson, Omar Infante and Martin Prado will all represent the Braves in the Midsummer Classic.

Jason Heyward is the second youngest player to ever be selected to start in an All-Star Game.  Though on the disabled list, Heyward will be activated before the game.  He will travel to Anaheim but will likely not play in the game.

Martin Prado received his first All-Star selection after a dominant first half of the season where he lead the NL in batting average and MLB in total hits.  Prado placed second in voting to Chase Utley, who has been disabled with a thumb injury.  As a result, Prado will likely start the game for the National League.

This is also the first All-Star selection for Omar Infante, whose selection came as a surprise.  Charlie Manuel added Infante to the National League roster on account of the versatility he provides in a utility role for the Braves.

Tim Hudson received his third trip to the All-Star Game, but his first with the Braves.  He last represented the A’s in the 2004 game.  After returning from Tommy John surgery last sesason, Hudson has compiled an 8-3 record and posted a 2.37 ERA in 2010.

Brian McCann receives his fifth All-Star selection in his fifth full season in the majors.  Though his production is down from 2009, McCann still leads all NL catchers in batting average.

The Braves have a chance to send a 6th player to the Midsummer Classic in the form of Billy Wagner.  He has been selected as one of the five NL Final Vote competitors, where the fans have the opportunity to select the final player on the team roster.  Wagner is facing off against Joey Votto, Ryan Zimmerman, Carlos Gonzalez and Heath Bell.

There would be no better send-off in Wagner’s final season, where he has served as a dominant closer for the Braves, than an All-Star selection.  Vote now to get Wagner in the All-Star Game!

Clutch Hits Aplenty

The Braves once again pulled out an exciting (if not sloppy) win in eleven innings.  There were so many story-lines coming from this game, but none greater than the clutch play of Prado, Blanco, Infante, and Glaus.

Prado had three singles last night, bumping up his average to .337 and furthering his already distended hit count to 114 — SEVEN more than the next closest bat in the entire league (Robinson Cano of NYY).  Clutch aspect: Prado had the first two RBIs of the game.

Blanco continued right where he left off in June, going two for three tonight with a walk.  He was the only Brave to cross the plate through the first 10 innings of play tonight for the Braves.  This play is not out of place for Blanco who has been playing great as of late.  He’s making a strong statement to be part of the lineup, but with Hinske also playing some great baseball, I think we will see these two sharing time out in left.

Glaus came up big in the bottom of the 11th, redeeming the error from the top of the inning in a big way with a huge double.  After being on an 0-20 drought, this hit couldn’t have been any more timely.  Despite going one-for-five in last night’s game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have some great games to close out the first half of the season.  That smack can inspire confidence in even the lowliest of slumping sluggers (to which fraternity Glaus does not yet belong).

And finally, the hero of the night: Omar Infante.  You can’t say enough about this guy.  Very much in the same vein of Gregor Blanco, Infante has been a quintessential utility player — showing up to play and getting huge clutch hits like we saw last night.  Incredible situational hitting has been the calling card of the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

With all of this in mind, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see an Infante, Blanco, or Hinske move up to the 2-slot behind Prado until Heyward gets back in shape.  I think it would create some fantastic scoring opportunities that we’re going to need to get win these final three series before the break.

State Of The Braves Heading Into July

After the hottest of Mays, the Braves were forced to turn their calendars to June (despite consistent urging from Chip Carey) and have seemingly left their past struggles in the month behind. The Braves have gone 17-11 in the month despite having to deal with significant injuries, including the loss of their All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth who in 2008 batted…never mind. All joking aside, here are the reasons why I believe the Braves more than survived June as well as some concerns looking forward.

1) Martin Prado, Troy Glaus, and Kris Medlen

After a ridiculous April in which he reached base over 42% of his plate appearances, Martin Prado came back down to earth in May. At some point during the month Jerome Jurenovich suggested that he should be starting the All-Star game; I almost fell off the couch laughing. Of course at that point Chase Utley was on fire, and I could never have foreseen the power surge Prado has had. While posting an OPS of .947, Prado led all National League second basemen with 14 extra base hits in the month of June. He now boasts the highest OPS amongst all NL second baggers and almost unquestionably deserves to start the All-Star game. With Utley on the DL and Prado leading the majors in hits, this seems very likely.

Troy Glaus has been no slouch either. A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I would rather have a former Brave who sometimes forgets that he is playing baseball while in the field over TG. I no longer feel this way. After being named National League POTM in May, Glaus has continued to swing a hot bat in June. Although his OBP dipped, he still belted 8 doubles and 6 homeruns to tie Prado for the team lead in extra base hits for the month. He also came close to stopping a couple of balls hit to his left (wink wink).

While Tim Hudson’s numbers are spectacular, I would argue Kris Medlen has been better. According to Baseball Prospectus’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), which is basically a stat that shows how lucky Ubaldo Jimenez is, Medlen has out performed Huddy and ranks 33rd in the category amongst all Major League pitchers with at least 70 IP. Perhaps more importantly for the Braves, Medlen has been their saving grace in the absence of Jair Jurrjens and will now allow them to move Kenshin Kawakami to the bullpen.

2) J-Hey to the DL and Big Red struggles

On May 30th Jason Heyward’s OPS was 1.017, tops in the National League. Since then Heyward has struggled mightily, posting an OPS of .532 in June while striking out a whopping 32 times. While the Braves and Jason cite his injured left thumb as the reason for his struggles, I doubt this to be the sole reason. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com pointed out in a recent article, Heyward was on fire for the first fifteen games after jamming his thumb which hardly seemed to be bothering him then. While it apparently got worse, it seemingly became an issue only after he started struggling. Hopefully rest will allow Jason to regain his stroke and return to his spectacular form.

While Tommy Hanson has struggled in his past two starts, I see little reason for concern. His K/BB ratio is slightly better than it was a year ago as he is striking out a batter an inning, and his BABIP is a ridiculously high .347. This is simply a product of bad luck and will almost certainly come down. Two bad starts in a row is not a trend, it is merely an aberration. As long as his velocity remains constant (and according to pitch FX it has) there is nothing to worry about.

Despite their success so far this season, the Braves could easily finish third in the NL East. While I think they are still the favorites to win it at this point, anything can happen over the course of the next three months. Hopefully the return of Jurrjens and the recovery of Heyward will be more than enough for the team to distance themselves from the ailing Phillies and overachieving Mets in July.

Utley Out Six Weeks, Braves Need To Extend Lead Now

The news from the Phillies camp is that Chase Utley is expected to be out for six weeks at least as his injured thumb will require surgery. What does that mean for the Braves other than Martin Prado likely landing the starting job for the NL All-Star team?

It means it’s time to turn on the afterburners and create some separation in the standings from our friends the New York Mets as well as the Phillies. We’re 1.5 and 3.5 games, respectively, in front of the Mets and Phils, and it’s time to make that distance a bit larger.

We just got Jurrjens back from the DL last night (the equivalent of landing another ace) and now our rotation is full of five guys nobody wants to face. Heyward is out for two weeks but will join after the All-Star Break hopefully at full-strength; the equivalent of landing a young clutch power bat. It’s unlikely the Braves will part with their top pitching prospects to land a power bat in left or center field from what I’m seeing, but Chipper and Yunel are turning crucial corners at the right time for the Braves.

It’s our division to run away with. The Mets have pitching depth issues. The Phillies are battling injuries. We need to finish out the first half strong and then run away with the division after the break. Time to put some distance in between us and the rest of the NL East.

Utley to DL, Prado May Land All-Star Start

Apparently few outside of Atlanta know who Martin Prado is, but that may change after Chase Utley landed on the DL yesterday with a (this sounds familiar) sprained thumb, clearing the way for Prado to start the All-Star game.

Yesterday, Prado was featured in SI.com’s “All-Overlooked All-Star Team,” amidst the likes of Corey Hart, Joey Votto, and Ricky Romero (all names you should go familiarize yourself with if you haven’t yet). The praise from SI’s Tom Verducci was simply “The Braves began to turn around their season when manager Bobby Cox put Prado into the leadoff position. Prado has hit .356 out of the top spot. The guy can flat out rake.” And can he! One of my favorite parts of Martin is how hard he works and how team-focused he is. There’s no attitude or personal glory moments with Prado, he’s always getting dirty and hustling to make things happen and then pushing credit to others.

As of the last vote tally, Prado was firmly in second to Utley in votes for the second base position in the NL. Unless something has changed, Prado will likely be the National League’s starting second baseman for the midsummer classic – and that’s a good thing. There’s not a better top-of-the-order hitter right now than Prado (hitting .331 on the season), and the NL needs someone to set the table to win this one.

The Braves may actually have a vested interest in home field advantage during the World Series this year. One thing’s for sure: If the Braves make it, Prado will be at the front of the lineup setting the table.

Braves’ Best Decisions of Past Year

Jon Heyman of SI.com wrote an article hailing the top 20 baseball decisions made this year. Three of ‘em are the decisions of your very own Atlanta Braves. Let’s take a look and see if these are truly the top 3 decisions made by Frank Wren and team.

• #10 – The decision to start Jason Heyward in Atlanta in 2010
• #15 – The decision to get rid of Kelly Johnson and start Martin Prado
• #17 – Resigning Tim Hudson

Now while I’ll agree that all three of these have been absolutely crucial to the Braves’s success in 2010, I’d add a couple more to the list.

• Signing Troy Glaus. Without Glaus in the middle of the lineup to provide some additional protection for the top of the lineup, where would the Braves be? Would Heyward be doing as well if the lineup weren’t as potent behind him? Glaus has been the offensive key the Braves have been missing in past years, and his .400 batting average (and .600 slugging percentage) with 2 outs and runners in scoring position has him a near lock for the comeback player of the year.
• Signing Billy Wagner. Wags (or The Sandman, if you prefer) has been absolutely dominant this year. If you haven’t seen him pitch in person this season, you’re missing out on how dominant he is. Having Wagner at the back of the Braves’ bullpen has certainly been one of the keys to success this season.

Those are the other decisions I’d put with Heyman’s three to round out the top five decisions of 2010. Ranking which decisions are most important to the Braves’ current success is difficult though. How would you rank ‘em?

Extra Boost Could Help Braves

Here we are in late July, and with the Phillies considering trading their future for Roy Halladay, it’s time for Sports Illustrated to bring back the same slideshow they’ve used for the last few seasons hailing the “best midseason trades ever.” Of course, Fred “Crime Dog” McGriff, David Cone, and some of the newer guys – Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Beltran, etc, are on the list. The Phillies figure to pick up Roy Halladay in exchange for some change, where some change equals some of their top prospects. Right now, they’re at an impasse, and let’s hope they stay there.

The Braves figure to stay where they’re at – maybe trade for a reliever to solidify the bullpen. And while that’s fine, and leaves them with a chance to win the Wild Card (they can pitch, and they do get Hudson back – who at the very least is a very bad-ass long reliever – which is why recent stories have the Braves backing away from trading for a reliever), but I really want to see us pull a 1993 – we need another bat. Where do we add someone? First base. Casey Kotchman is average. He’s good enough to play in the big leagues, but not good enough to wow anybody every night. Maybe, if Kelly Johnson is not going to suck, the answer is to play Martin Prado at first instead of Kotchman – Prado has been on fire – but what about some true pop? Why not go for it and make a trade designed to take on the Phillies? It doesn’t have to mortgage our whole future – we don’t need a modern day McGriff – we just need to upgrade. We don’t need a long-term fix – trade Kotchman away in exchange for another first baseman – with Freddie Freeman waiting in the wings in a year or two, we just need someone through the end of 2010. Maybe Prado’s that guy?

Note: I don’t mean to pick on Kotchman – I like the guy – but where else do we upgrade our offense? It’s been pretty awesome recently.

Hell, don’t trade anybody and give Barbaro Canizares a chance to bring the big bat to the majors. Let Kotchman sub defensively and give Canizares a chance to bring some of his pop to the lineup.

I want to see October baseball this year. Maybe this team does that. Maybe. But seriously, do something to take it over the top.

It’s been too long since we’ve seen October baseball in Atlanta.

Alright, Kent, your turn to write an article on how the Braves don’t need to make a move…

Martin Prado 2009 Outlook

One look at the Braves’ depth chart and you’ll see that they believe Martin Prado can play many positions. Prado is second in line at first, second, and third base – and third at shortstop. Prado is coming off a 2008 season where he hit .320 in 228 at-bats over 78 games. He doesn’t hit for power but he’s patient at the plate and has shown a proficiency in the field at multiple infield positions.

What can we expect to see from Prado in 2009? More of the same. Chipper Jones won’t play all 162 games and Prado will get some starts at third base. I’ve also talked to some people who feel he’s going to start getting some playing time at second base if Johnson has any sort of a down spell. I don’t think we’ll see Prado at first much – if I had to guess, Greg Norton gets most of the backup time there if Kotchman needs any rest (and for some reason Norton wasn’t mentioned on the Braves’ depth chart as of today). Who knows where his batting average will end (hard to even estimate how much he’ll play), but we’ll continue to see solid numbers out of Prado.

Back when the Braves were still looking for outfield power, some people argued that Kelly Johnson could have been trade bait with Prado being the starting option at second. First off, I think Bobby and the crew believe Kelly has too much potential upside to trade, but I still think Prado isn’t a bad option to have start in the infield if Chipper goes down or needs a week off. It’s also good to see him getting some serious playing time with Chipper at the WBC – he’s played in 8 games with 19 at-bats.

Martin Prado is the utility man heading the ranks of the solid infield backup we have this year. We’ve already covered Dave Ross but we’ll also hit Omar Infante and Greg “I’m really not graceful in the outfield” Norton before the season starts. What are your thoughts on Prado? Journeyman utility player or future starting infielder somewhere?

Prado To Disabled List

Martin Prado was placed on the 15-day disabled list earlier today with a sprained thumb suffered diving into first to obtain an infield single during yesterday’s game against the Reds.  Prado’s thumb is in a cast and the Braves are expecting him to be out a full 6 weeks as a result of this injury.

In other news, the Braves have moved Peter Moylan over to the 60-day disabled list.  Moylan will have season-ending Tommy John surgery later this week.  The surgery requires at least a year of recovery time and I’d like to see Moylan back as soon as possible.  Just more injuries to hamper the Braves.

Jurrjens Impresses, Braves Win 10-2

It’s not often you hear Bobby Cox call someone “sensational” – especially a young pitcher after their first start.  But Bobby didn’t hesitate to pull it out when talking about the 22 year old starter Jair Jurrjens, who made his first big league start for the Braves tonight.  Jurrjens went 5.1 innings, struck out five, and gave up two earned runs on seven scattered hits and one walk.  He notched not only his, but the Braves’ first win this season.

I was really impressed by Jurrjens.  In the post-game interview, he kept beating himself up for the one walk.  He didn’t seem happy or self-absorbed with the win or the five strikeouts.  He didn’t mention the nasty changeup he throws without hesitation.  He was upset with himself for the one walk and kept saying how he needs to limit the walks this season.  Jurrjens didn’t even get in trouble until the sixth inning.  And his fastball was around 93-94 all night long.

The bats weren’t silent either.  Martin Prado started the evening at second in place of the injured Kelly Johnson (knee, day-to-day), and kicked the game off with a triple.  Chipper knocked him in.  Prado would go on to reach base 3 out of 5 times to the plate, scoring each of those times.  Matt Diaz added a homer in the fourth.

Going into the 8th, the Braves led 3-2, before the floodgates opened.  Both Yunel Escobar and Mark Teixeira broke out the long ball – Tex launching a two-run homer and Yunel going yard to put a three spot on the board.  Add a few singles here and there, and the Braves ended up putting seven runs on the board in the eighth.  Will Ohman came in and closed out the game in the ninth.

Great to see the Braves get their first win on the board – especially with the offense really clicking in the eighth.  Jurrjens is going to be something special.  He’s soft-spoken and modest, and has nasty stuff to back it up.  He is willing to learn from the older guys and will really benefit from that throughout the season.  Hopefully we’ll continue to have Teixeira break out the bat, as he had a slow spring.  Also good to see our bullpen pitch 3.2 innings of scoreless relief.  We’ll take that.

Braves are 1-2 and showing signs of life.  Hampton on the mound tomorrow for Atlanta.  Here’s praying he can stay alive through it.

’08 Roster Nearing Completion

After last night’s loss to Cleveland, the Braves further thinned out their roster, getting ready for Sunday’s game against the Washington Nationals.  Of course the most notable moves involved the ongoing battles for the limited number of backup spots on the roster.

Brent Lillibridge, impressive as he was in the first half of the spring, got sent back to AAA Richmond, where he’ll get more playing time.  I think this is crucial, since either he or Escobar will likely be trade bait before too long.  He needs to be playing all the time.  Martin Prado gets to stay in Atlanta – his first time starting the season in the majors.  Joining Prado (who played a few innings last night at first, by the way) is new acquisition Ruben Gotay, a switch-hitting contact hitter who can play second, third, and short.

In the outfield, Gregor Blanco beat out Josh Anderson for the backup job.  Anderson got out-hit by Blanco this spring (.260 to .341) and despite his speed, Bobby couldn’t find a roster spot for him.  I like Anderson though – if we have an issue mid-season with Diaz or Kotsay I’m sure we’ll see him (maybe even before Schafer, whom they might want to groom all season long).

Behind the plate, Corky Miller seems to have the backup job.  Brayan Pena is still on the roster too, but he’s out of options and conventional wisdom says he’s traded by the end of the day.  If Pena sticks around, he can pitch in at first as well.

So that leaves the five bench spots going to Blanco (OF), Gotay (IF), Prado (IF), Pena (C/1B) and Miller (C).  I’m not sure what we’ll see happen if Pena is traded – maybe Anderson comes back up?

The Bullpen is finally solid, with slots going to Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano, Manny Acosta, Will Ohman, Chris Resop, Royce Ring, and Blaine Boyer.  I like this year’s ‘pen.  Lots of arms who have the capacity to be good pitchers throughout the season.

Jeff Bennett and Buddy Carlyle are still fighting for the pitching slot left vacant by Smoltzie, who will start the season on the DL (it’ll be backdated and he’ll only miss one start).  I’d give the edge to Bennett in this one – he’s been impressive, but Carlyle hasn’t put together a bad spring himself.

More as we hear it – our ears are to the ground today as we wait for the final moves to be made.