2010 Braves Extreme Values

Written by Thomas on August 31, 2010 – 1:53 pm

Having three of the worst players in the National League would seemingly ruin most teams’ chances of making the playoffs, but not the Atlanta Braves’. While three of their opening day starters (four if you include Derek Lowe) have done their best to continue Atlanta’s postseason absence, three others have been amongst the best in the league. Here are six players, three on each end of the spectrum, that have had the greatest impact on the Braves’ season so far.

The Good

1) Brian McCann (4.9 Wins Above Replacement, tied for 6th in NL)

No one seemed too worried after Brian’s OBP dipped to .349 a season ago and with good reason. His eye problems are seemingly a thing of the past as he has produced a triple slash line of .281/.388./.484 so far this season. The plate discipline is back, and most defensive metrics say he has significantly improved his performance behind the plate as well.

2) Martin Prado (4.0 WAR, tied for 16th in NL)

Many Braves fans were happy to see Kelly Johnson go last off-season. While he has bounced back (in a big way) out in Arizona, Prado has all but matched his output in Atlanta. Although his bat looks better at second, he is clearly more comfortable playing third base, the silver lining of Chipper’s injury.

3) Jason Heyward (3.8 WAR, tied for 23rd in NL)

Undoubtedly the single most important upgrade from last year’s team was the promotion of Jason Heyward. The Braves’ right field, despite Matt Diaz’s best efforts, was a disaster last season. Everything totaled, Francoeur, Diaz, and Ryan Church combined for an OPS of .743 at the position. Heyward’s triple slash line of .278/.389/.475, however, has made the Braves forget about all that. Everyone knew he was going to be something special, just not this good this early.

The Bad

1) Troy Glaus (.4 WAR, 9th worst among all qualified NL players)

Troy’s second half has made May a distant memory, and April seem quite vivid. Bad legs seem to have been his undoing, and the Derrek Lee trade spelled the end of any significant playing time. There is a good chance he has started his last game as an Atlanta Brave.

The Ugly

1) Melky Cabrera (-.6 WAR, dead last among all qualified NL players)

Not much to say here. Francoeur plate discipline + softball power + shoddy glove = worse than a replacement level player. If Frank Wren has any sense, and I believe he has lots of it, Melky will be non-tendered this off season.

2) Nate McClouth (-1.3 WAR, dead last among ALL NL players)

He does not even have enough plate appearances to be qualified, yet he still tops the list for the worst offensive player in the National League. Unfortunately, I just wrote about one of his replacements; the other isn’t much better either. Regardless of what level he plays at next season, the Braves are on the hook to pay him $6.5 million. Oh, and they will have to pay another $1.25 million to buy him out for 2012 as well.


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Nate McLouth Optioned To Gwinnett

Written by Jonathan on July 27, 2010 – 4:52 pm

It appears that Nate McLouth’s days in Atlanta are done for the time being.  After going 1-for-15 in his five games back from the disabled list for a concussion sustained in a collision with Jason Heyward, the Braves front office has decided to give Nate more time in Gwinnett to figure things out.  They will likely continue to look for possible trade options for McLouth as the July 31st trade deadline approaches.

McLouth was held out of Sunday’s final game against the Marlins after failing to provide offensive production in the previous five games.  Large points of frustration with McLouth were a soft groundout with the bases loaded in late innings on Saturday and a game-ending double play in extra innings on Sunday.  Additionally, with runners in scoring position, Nate was 0-for-6 during the three game series with the Marlins.

Brent Clevlen has been activated from a rehab assignment and is expected to join the squad mid-game tonight.  Gregor Blanco, who was sent to Gwinnett, is required to spend 10 days in the minors before being eligible to be called up.  He will be eligible on July 31st.  In 58 at-bats in Atlanta this season, Blanco has hit .310, but the Braves front office has not yet decided if Blanco will end up back in Atlanta in the next week.  At this point, the Braves are still in search of the answer to a long-term solution in center field.

I don’t know what’s going to happen next for McLouth or the Braves as a whole in center field, but here’s wishing McLouth the best.  If we don’t see a move for a center fielder at the trade deadline, I’d love to see Gregor back in Atlanta ASAP.


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Time To Land A Center Fielder

Written by Colin on July 25, 2010 – 6:56 pm

If you watched the Atlanta Braves play the Florida Marlins this weekend, you saw Nate McLouth have several big at-bats when put in context of his future with the Braves. The latest – with the bases loaded in the top of the 11th – ended with a double play.

Yes, it was a hard-hit ball. Is he coming around? Maybe.

To me, it’s time to land another center fielder. While McLouth might come around and we may have moderate production out of the position the rest of the season, and I’m not OK with that.

The way this team is playing, I want to see us go out and get a player who can put some pop in the lineup. I want someone who is going to put us from playing pretty well in the NL East to the class of the NL East. I want to put the Phillies on notice that even if they trade for Oswalt they are going to have to play .800 ball to catch us. I want to be damn good. We’re already good. I want to be even better.

Here’s the thing – I’m against trading prospects for a star to “put us over the top” when we’re only hoping to make the playoffs. However, I am completely behind trading prospects for a star to make us the class of the National League.

Mark Bowman is reporting that the Braves may not be that interested in the Marlins’ Cody Ross. Others are reporting that the Fish are unlikely to move Ross. If you ask me, it sounds like Ross won’t be the next member of the Braves. I would like to see us make a *smart* move and land a center fielder who can give us the production we need from center field to have a potent lineup throughout the batting order.

Let’s go get Marlon Byrd ($5.5M in ’11 and $6.5M in ’12). Or hell, how about we sign Jermaine Dye? His power numbers would be nice and he’d definitely hit for more average than McLouth will. I’ll think on that more and maybe expound on it in another blog post soon.


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Braves Answer Spring Training Lineup Questions

Written by Kent on March 28, 2010 – 7:08 am

Every Major League Baseball team enters spring training with the goal of finding answers to a variety of questions. Some of the questions surrounding the 2010 Atlanta Braves were never considered points of concern at all by Braves officials, but these doubts and queries made their way around the blogosphere nonetheless. So with only a week or so remaining in the ’10 Grapefruit League season, let’s take a look at the questions raised in regard to these Braves and what answers pre-season play has provided. We’ll start with the Braves lineup today and will address the pitching Q&A’s later this week.

Q. Is Troy Glaus’ shoulder healthy and strong enough to allow him to return to ’08 form?

A. Glaus’ shoulder IS healthy and strong. The Braves were confident in his health long before now, or they never would have signed him to be their everyday First-Baseman in the first place. And the 33 year-old slugger’s spring has provided further confirmation of his health. He has hit close to .400 through in 37 spring at-bats, in addition to drawing 10 walks. Though he has hit the ball hard, he has yet to homer this spring, but Braves fans need not be alarmed. We’re talking about a guy who has never hit fewer than 27 homers in a full season of play… a HR total he reached as recently as 2008, before spending most of ’09 on the shelf. Now that he’s healthy and strong, there is no reason to doubt the power threat that he represents in the middle of the Braves’ order.

Bear in mind also that numerous sluggers, including perennial 40-homer threats like Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder and Cincinnati’s Adam Dunn, have yet to hit a pre-season homerun. So long as Glaus remains healthy, you can likely pencil him in for something close to 30 HR’s.

Q. What does Chipper have left in the tank?

A. This question cannot be fully answered in the pre-season; however, he has looked very good to this point with a spring average of over .300 and a mammoth homerun to his credit. Chipper spent a good bit of time in the weight room over the winter and reported to camp noticeably bigger and stronger, and it appears his hard work has already begun to pay off. Braves officials remain convinced that his poor second-half ’09 numbers were simply the result of a prolonged slump (it can happen to the best of them) and in no way an indication of deteriorating skills. That would be my guess as well. Only time will tell, but so far, so good.

Q. Is Jason Heyward ready for the Show?

A. Yes. Heyward’s raw talent and physical maturity put him on the big league radar sooner than most, but it was his personal maturity and advanced approach to the game that ultimately sold Braves’ officials on his readiness.

Many have argued that it would have been more prudent to hold Heyward at AAA for the early part of the season in order to avoid negative financial/contractual implications down the road. However, I would respond to that assertion with a question: “Could having Heyward in the lineup on April 5th – as opposed to weeks or months into the season – make the difference in even just 1 or 2 wins?” I believe the answer is YES. And in a division that could easily be decided by 1 or 2 games (as is always the case with the Wild Card), can the Braves really afford NOT to have their very best team on the field from day-1?

Working from the assumption that he’s ready to make a difference at the big league level, to hold Heyward out of the Atlanta lineup for any period of time is to risk missing the playoffs again THIS year… in order to have a better chance in 2016 or 2017. The Braves made the correct call.

Q. What’s wrong with Nate McLouth, and will he bounce back?

A. This is the one question that was born during this spring, after the Braves’ Center-Fielder was found buried in a rather ugly 1-for-35 slump. McLouth endured a lingering hamstring injury after his mid-season trade to Atlanta last season, but reported to camp healthy this year and with improved focus, thanks to a visit to the eye doc and new set of contact lenses. With healthy legs and enhanced vision, expectations were high for McLouth before his spring struggles began to deeply concern many observers, including me. Fortunately, he appears to returning to form. Over his last three Grapefruit League games, he is 4 for his last 9 with a homerun.


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It Wasn’t A Lack Of Power…..

Written by Kent on July 22, 2009 – 7:32 am

….it was the “Axis Of Feeble”

If you’re one of the many fans or national sports media types who still aren’t taking the Braves seriously, there is something you need to know… You are mistaken.

You observe that the Braves have little more thunder in their lineup than they had through the first 3 months of the season, and you see no reason why they’re offensive woes won’t extend into the figurative “second half”. The trouble is… your premise is flawed.

You think the Braves have failed to score runs consistently for most of the year because they have lacked “impact power”. But the truth is that a lack of power was not the primary source of their offensive impotency in the first half. The REAL problem was having not one, not two, but THREE near-automatic outs in the lineup.

You can score plenty of runs without a single 30-homerun hitter. Just ask the ’98 Yankees. If you don’t have 2 or 3 huge bats in the middle of the order, that’s just fine, but you need to have a well balanced lineup full of quality hitters. The problem was… the Braves didn’t have either. There were three “Shaq”-sized holes in their lineup.

For the first 2-3 months of the season Jordan Schafer, Kelly Johnson, and Jeff Francoeur formed an axis-of-feeble. Like a black hole, they sucked the life out of this Atlanta offense. This underachieving trio killed rally after rally, and prevented many others from ever being sparked in the first place. It even managed to turn two of the league’s best starters, Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez, into losing pitchers for a time.

While Atlanta now has more homerun power than many think, and will likely top their first half homerun total by a wide margin, the Braves don’t have multiple mashers in the middle of their lineup. That means that, to some extent, walks, singles, and doubles have to come together in combination in order to score sufficiently and reliably. But when you have THREE members of your lineup who are virtually guaranteed to pull the plug on any potentially productive inning… how can you ever score runs consistently?

You can’t. And they didn’t.

But the Braves plugged one of those holes when they replaced Schafer with all-star Center Fielder, Nate McLouth, in June. And now, in July, they have plugged the other two holes as well. Martin Prado ripped the starting second-base job out of Kelly Johnson’s hands with his recent all-star caliber play. Then, Frank Wren and Co. replaced the floundering Francoeur with the capable right-field platoon of Matt Diaz and Ryan Church (for whom the Braves dealt “Frenchy” to the Mets).

Atlanta’s offense isn’t likely to be among the game’s very best from now until the end of the season. However, I believe this Braves lineup will surprise the naysayers in the second half. Their detractors have failed to recognize the TRUE problem. Therefore, they have yet to notice that it has been fixed. But they will be forced to take note if the Braves continue to climb the ladder in key offensive categories. Atlanta recently jumped from 11th to 8th (out of 16 teams) in the National League in runs scored, and now has the 4th best team batting average in the NL. In my view, smart money says they’ll finish higher than 8th in runs scored by season’s end.

Every single position in the Braves batting order is likely to hit for a solid average, and is capable of delivering 15 homeruns or better. Three positions can deliver 25 or more homeruns. And six of the eight positions are manned by players capable of thumping 40 doubles in a season.

Frank Wren and Bobby Cox now have the lineup they envisioned at the start of spring. There are no 30 homerun bombers… but solid hitters with pop throughout the lineup, 1-8. And more often than not, that will be enough to win behind this Atlanta pitching.

The axis-of-feeble is gone, and better days are ahead.


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McLouth To Hit Third

Written by Colin on June 5, 2009 – 8:05 am

Chipper Jones hits third for the Braves. He’s always hit third, and he prefers third. But even Chipper is willing to admit he may get more RBI opportunities with Nate McLouth in front of him. “Bobby wants to do what’s best for the club,” said Chipper, “and if he thinks Nate might get a couple of hits hitting in the third hole because I’m behind him, then so be it.”

Nate’s excited about it too – calling Chipper “one of the greatest switch-hitters of all time.” McLouth has been hitting third for the Pirates this year and will be hopefully more productive than he was in Pittsburgh as he’s surrounded by better players – some decent leadoff talent in Escobar and Johnson (who’s been tearing it up lately), and with Chipper and McCann behind him. We’ll see what happens.

In other news, notice the Braves orchestrated the rain to allow yesterday’s game to be rained out. After making tons of money off ticket sales for Tommy Hanson’s Saturday debut, they hope to cash in on Sunday’s game now as well. Ok, maybe I’m going a little far, but a conspiracy theory never hurt anybody.


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Braves Trade For All-Star McLouth

Written by Colin on June 3, 2009 – 7:42 pm

The Braves traded for All-Star centerfielder Nate McLouth today, sending three prospects to the Pirates. McLouth will provide a much needed solid power bat in the middle of the lineup, adding punch to the outfield as well as speed. The Braves part with Gorkys Hernandez (came from the Tigers with Jurrjens), Charlie Morton, and pitcher Jeff Locke.

McLouth is hitting .256 this year. Last year he finished with a .276 average, 26 home runs, 94 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases. He’ll provide some protection for Chipper and McCann – which is something they need to remain productive.

With this activity today, the Braves appear to be making a move to make a run this season – and they’re not afraid of committing early. We’re only 4 games back in the NL East and have the pitching to take us a long way – even without Hudson coming back later this year. It’s good to see the Braves make the moves necessary to get some more offense ready to go. I’m impressed – this isn’t something we’re used to seeing the Braves do. What are your thoughts? Is McLouth the answer or do we need to make additional moves?

One thing is certain in my mind – Jeff Francoeur’s on the hotseat. We’ve got a LOT of outfield talent coming up and if he doesn’t produce, he’s not around forever.


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Posted in Roster Moves | 6 Comments »

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