Oswalt To Phillies….Will The Braves Counter?

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington wonders how creative the Braves are willing to get in their efforts landing another big bat. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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What Roy Oswalt To The Phillies Could Mean For The Braves

Pending his approval, Roy Oswalt will be making 12 plus starts for the Phillies over the course of the next two months. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs.com points out, this trade is an admission of guilt by GM Ruben Amaro for inexplicably trading Cliff Lee last off-season. The Lee trade left the team with a top heavy rotation that was hurt even further when it lost J.A. Happ to the disabled list after only two starts.

Following the Happ injury in April, the Phillies rotation looked like this: 1) Roy Halladay 2) Cole Hamels 3-5) Kyle Kendrick, Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton. To translate this into Braves lingo, they had a Maddux, a Glavine and then three Kenshin Kawakamis. Another comparable would be the Braves’ 2007 rotation which consisted of Hudson, Smoltz and then three or four Kenshin Kawakamis. That season there was an incredible amount of pressure on the games Huddy and Smoltz started, because losing them meant there could easily be a four or five game losing streak. Both of them stayed healthy all season and pitched very well, but the team could only win 84 games, good for third in the NL East.

The Phillies’ top two of Halladay and Hamels have been in a similar situation all year but have managed to lead the team to an impressive 55-46 record prior to the Oswalt trade. Unfortunately, adding the Astros’ ace to their staff significantly improves the Phillies’ chances at catching the Braves down the stretch. Oswalt, who will essentially be replacing the mediocre Jamie Moyer, has been very good this year, with his 8.37 K/9 ratio being the highest it has been since his rookie season.

The Phillies could potentially switch to a four man rotation at some point before the season is over. Doing so would eliminate yet another horrible starter from their rotation. This combined with the return of Utley and Victorino will make them a very dangerous team. The Braves still have a 3.5 game head start, but their chances at winning the division looked a whole lot better one week ago. At that point the lead was seven games and Oswalt was still in an Astros’ uniform. Six games remain between Atlanta and Philly including the three game set at Turner Field to end the season. As Billy Wagner predicted long ago, these three games just might determine who wins the NL East.

NL East on par with AL East

In the last two weeks, the Atlanta Braves have played the Tampa Bay Rays, the Philadelphia Phillies have played the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Now the Florida Marlins are playing the Rays and the New York Mets are taking on the Yankees now that they’ve demolished the pitiful Baltimore Orioles. The record so far? The NL East has won 12 games, the AL East had won 5.

The NL East is good this year. Yes, our Bravos are good (and we’re damn good). We’re 29-0 when we score 5 runs or more, and we have the best home record in baseball. But it’s not a one-team division. The Phillies are starting to bat again and have started winning a few games. And though the Mets have been beating up on last place teams like the Orioles and Indians, they’ve won 8 straight. The Marlins and Nationals have shown flashes of brilliance but are riding some younger teams that aren’t developed to the point they need to be at to compete in the NL East.

The AL East is good too. Obviously you have the defending World Champ Yankees. I will point out their pitching staff has been improved by an NL East castoff (Vazquez). The Rays are just playing great baseball in almost every aspect of the game, and then you’ve got the Red Sox hanging just one game back. Even the Blue Jays have surprised and are playing six games above .500. The Orioles don’t deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence as the word “good,” but I just screwed that up, didn’t I?

Bottom line is the NL East is comparable to the AL East. Even if you throw out the Orioles series (as might be fair), we’ve won 9 of 14. But we won’t throw series out. After all, the Yankees and Rays have played the O’s and those wins count towards their .612 win percentage. We’ve won 12 out of 17 games.

I’m going to go out on a limb (a very strong limb) and predict an NL East vs. AL East World Series. With a National League Champion.

Tribute To Phillies Fans

During a recent conversation (via Twitter) with Phillies fans about the apparent fact – according to them – that Roy Halladay is indeed the second coming of Christ, I was reminded of just how wonderfully spirited Phillies fans can be. While I realize that trading one ace for another (Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay) makes the Phillies completely bulletproof and utterly unbeatable, I’m still clinging to faint hopes that perhaps somehow the Braves can prevent the Phils from going 162-0 this season. As Andy Dufresne once said… “Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”

Let’s see, where were we? Oh, yes, Phillies fans.

It is out of my fondest care and affection for these most lovable of all fans that I bring you the following tribute to Phillies fanatics everywhere. Enjoy.

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Looks Like The Braves Won’t Have Home Field Advantage In The World Series This Year

That’s right folks, you heard it here first: looks like the Braves won’t have home field advantage in the World Series this year.

The main flaw from last night’s All-Star game is that Brian McCann only got one at-bat. Let’s be honest: He’s way better than this Yadier Molina character. It’s just that, well, St. Louis fans apparently voted a lot this year because the All-Star game was in their city. So Yadier started, McCann only got one at-bat, and didn’t really get a chance to win the game for the NL. Obviously, it’s Charlie Manuel’s fault.

Our worst fears are confirmed: When the Braves make a run and outright win the NL East this year (and it will happen, mark my words), and when we sweep the Division Championship against the Cubs, and after we win the NL Championship 4-2 against the Phillies, we won’t have home field advantage in the World Series.

What are the ramifications of this, you ask? I’ll tell you:

• If you want to go to all the games, you’ll have to buy 1 (one) additional round trip plane ticket per person, as well as additional away game tickets.
• Charlie Manuel will laugh at us because he’ll think it serves us right for beating them.
• Brian McCann has a brooding hate for all things Phillies. Which is the way it should be.
• The Mets don’t care, because they’re so old they can’t contend.

In an attempt to soften the blow of the Braves not having home field advantage in the World Series and in a futile attempt to change that to “The Phillies won’t have home field advantage in the World Series,” the Phillies have signed the old and decrepid Pedro Martinez. They immediately put him on the DL. And I’m not making that up – that’s just funny.

Oh, and Yunel Escobar is apparently being shopped around. Maybe we can land a big bat after all. Maybe? Please, baseball gods, please?

The Good News and the Bad News From Philly

Well, that sucked, didn’t it?! Sure, the Braves achieved their goal of winning the series in Philly. Still… that Wednesday loss stings. Badly. It was punch to the gut. No… that’s not strong enough. It was a kick to the groin. With a size-15 steel-toed boot.

This was a disgusting loss. Sickening. It was all I could do not to throw the remote through the living room window. Part of me feels that Blaine Boyer and Jorge Campillo should take turns beating the #$@%^ out of each other just to make peace with the universe after that pathetic display. (Moylan must be forgiven, under the circumstances. It was, after all, his very first appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery).

That’s the bad news.

But despite the physical illness all Braves fans no doubt share after Wednesday’s bullpen meltdown, there is good news to report after this opening series. A LOT of good news, actually.

Here are some things Braves fans can take away from this opening series in Phili:

• Derek Lowe looks like he’s up for the challenge of being the new Atlanta “Ace”.
• Jair Jurrjens was very good in his start, and Javier Vazquez was solid against a tough lineup in a hitter’s park. 
• Though he got off to shaky start, Mike Gonzalez settled in and closed the door in game one. He then breezed his way through hitters in game two. And Rafeal Soriano was excellent in his first appearance of the season on Tuesday. Back end of the pen looks solid. 
• Brian McCann appears to be locked in, and could be headed toward a big season. 
• Chipper Jones looks like he’s ready to make good on his promise to hit a few more into the seats this year (that is, when he’s in the lineup). 
• How about that KID?!! There’s a long way to go, but Jordan Schafer has given us reason to think he might turn out to be a legitimate Rookie of the Year Award candidate. 
• Yunel Escobar (who may have been robbed of a homerun on Tuesday) is showing some nice pop in his bat early. 
• Jeff Francoeur’s game-one homer, and solid RBI single up the middle on Wednesday provide further evidence that he’s back on track. 

The Braves’ offensive depth and balance was on display, proving that there are no coffee breaks in this lineup for opposing pitchers. Every single member of this lineup is a quality, professional hitter – with at least moderate power – who can hurt you. I’m not sure there’s another lineup in the league that can say the same.

And oh yeah… I suppose it is good news that the Braves did, after all, win the series on the road, even if they did throw away a sweep that was all but in their pocket.

And there’s more good news for the Braves… in the form of bad news for the Phillies. It is quite clear that the defending champs have starting pitching problems. There is a lack of depth in the Philadelphia rotation that will go from apparent to neon-lights if Cole Hamels misses any more time this season.

But the Phils aren’t alone. There is also some doubt surrounding the depth and quality of the New York Mets’ rotation, after Johan Santana. Doubts that Mets’ #2 starter, Mike Pelfrey, did nothing to alleviate Wednesday night with a lackluster performance in Cincinnati.

There are no perfect teams in the NL East. Each team has potential problems areas. Many expected offense to be a weak link in Atlanta’s game. But after getting a live look at this Braves lineup; after seeing the kinds of swings Jeff Francoeur is putting on the ball; after seeing the kind of talent (offensive and defensive) they now have roaming Center Field; and after seeing the depth and balance of this lineup… I’m not buying the notion that Atlanta is offensively challenged. I think this lineup is going to be a strength for the Braves. And decidedly so.

The offense looks good. The back end of the bullpen looks good. And unlike their two most talked about division rivals, the Braves appear rich – or at least reasonably well off – when it comes to starting pitching. That leaves middle-relief as the only apparent pothole on the post-season highway.

My point is this: If the Braves do indeed have a middle-relief problem… then they have a better problem than the one potentially facing the Mets and/or Phillies.

A middle-relief sized crack in the hull is a helluva lot easier to repair than a starting pitching sized gorge. And the Braves certainly have the trading chips, should they find it necessary to bolster the middle of their ‘pen. Also, it should be noted that, in addition to the Mets’ starting pitching challenges, they too have unanswered questions where their middle-relief is concerned. 

In short, despite a game-three finish that drove me into a frenzied fit of profanity reminiscent of the furnace-fighting scene in A Christmas Story, I’ve seen enough to earnestly say… “I like the Braves chances this year.”

How about you? Good news? Bad news? Whaddya think of this team after watching them play the champs up in Philly?

Braves Look To Sweep World Champ Phillies

Before today’s game starts at 3PM eastern, the Phillies will recieve their world series rings. But the Phillies haven’t played like defending World Champions in the first two games of the series – which the Braves both won as they outscored the Phils 8-1. Interestingly enough – only one defending world series team has scored fewer runs in their first two games.

Javier Vazquez and the Braves hope that the Phillies’ slumbering lumber (it rhymed, I had to do it) doesn’t awake for today’s game. Vazquez will be facing Joe Blanton, who is considerably younger than the aging Jamie Moyer and Brett Myers the Braves faced in the first two games. Vazquez is typically a fly ball pitcher – so it’ll be interesting to see how Citizens Bank Ballpark handles the Phillies’ bats and Vazquez’s style today.

Join us in this thread for some in-line game commentary and general chattiness. Feel free to jump in and offer your opinion or comment on the goings-on! Jonathan will be game-threading it and Colin will join as he is able while in and out of class this afternoon. Bring out the brooms!

Braves Baseball Is Back!

It’s far too late for me to write a game recap (forgive me, I was in Phoenix last night watching the game from a crappy hotel room) – but I do want to throw together some thoughts I had last night during the game. Please feel free to add your own, argue with mine, or just sit there and read this complacently before moving on to another website.

Derek Lowe Is Solid

He’s not going to wow us every night with heaters – he’s not the typical power pitcher ace most people think of – but he’s a very solid, methodical pitcher who is going to give us quality start after quality start. And when he’s on – like he was last night – he can be very, very good.

Francoeur Will Be Back

You saw Francoeur’s line drive home run last night – he’s going to hit the ball hard night after night this year. Once he gets more used to his stance, we’ll see more power forthcoming – but I’ll take the Francoeur we saw last night. That said, he needs to work on his throw from the right field corner to third. He’s got a reputation to keep.

Jordan Schafer Is Fast

Did you see how fast he cleared the bases after his homerun? What about when he almost ran over Kelly Johnson who was taking a couple steps back to field a fly ball in short right center? The guy has legs. What a night for his first game – a single, an intentional walk and finally a strikeout that made him look silly. I think we’ll see some good stuff from Jordan this year – I’m certainly looking forward to it.

The Braves Looked Good

Lowe pitched well. Schafer showed us a little bit of what he can do. Francoeur looks good. But let’s not forget Chipper – who did what Chipper does – stroking balls comfortably the other way. Yunel almost knocked a homer of his own. Kotchman showed us some defense. McCann crushed a ball that almost landed in another state. Gonzo came out of the bullpen with (a little too much) energy – but once he gets that under control he’ll be the dominant closer he is. When all was said and done, Lowe had an 8 inning, two-hit performance and the Braves beat the Phillies 4-1.

For the first time this season, New York Mets fans cheered for the Braves. And when the Mets played today, Braves fans cheered for the Reds. It’s baseball season, folks. It’s back, and so are the Braves. Now we just have to prove that to the rest of the baseball.

NL East Review: Philadelphia

Well…I’ve been out of town for a couple of days and am writing this at about 3:30 in the morning while watching a movie with my cousins, so excuse me if this one sucks. The Phils deserve a good review because frankly, they’ve been the least bad team in the division this whole season. The Nats flat out stink, the Mets are severely underachieving, the Marlins are playing above and beyond their capabilities for what is supposed to about a second or third year team…but the Phils, I still can’t understand how they keep winning.

Unlike their usual selves, they got off to a decent start and did not dig the same huge hole they have over several of the past fifteen years (2003 was their last World Series appearance and their last playoff appearance before 2007). They’ve done it for the most part with what has been one guys in their rotation and a bunch of pitchers just flat out do well against the rest of the NL East. The Phillies are 8-1 against the Braves to this point, 3-3 against Washington, 3-3 against Florida and 3-5 against the Mets (as of  7.06.08, morning). How they continue to dominate the Braves and destroy the Braves, I won’t know. It just seems like the matchups that look to go in our favor go in theirs and the matchups that go in their favor are blowouts.

That said, the Phillies are a team that know how good they are but also know their shortcomings. They have one of the best offenses in the league with Jimmy Rollis, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard at the top and guys like Cole Hamels, J.C. Romero and a new Brad Lidge on the pitching staff. They have been making their noise by getting a lead to their bullpen and hoping they can keep it. Which, the bullpen has done a spectacular job of.

After 86 games played, Philly has led the National League in relievers’ ERA (2.74), had 22 saves, pitched the least amount of bullpen innings (250.0, which is understandable for a team that does not have an overworked bullpen) and been second to the Braves in batting average against at .235.

Offensively, they are second in the league in runs scored, but ranked 10 in average (.257)…hmm…how does one figure that?  With runners on at all, they Phils step it up to .279, tied with Pittsburgh for the league lead. With runners in scoring position, the Phillies are hitting .272, third best in the league.

The Phillies pitching staff overall is ranked 3 in ERA (3.89), but their starters feature a 4.44 ERA, obviously not the best.

But with Philly, when they get their hits, they make them count. They are second in the league in slugging percent, meaning they get a lot of extra base hits, and obviously home runs in their park. But that’s not all, their OPS is second in the league and their On-base percentage is fourth.

Now the Phillies need what most other teams need, another solid starting pitcher. They dont know how long Adam Eaton will hold up, and the same with Jamie Moyer. Cole Hamels is a stud, but what about Kyle Kendrick and Brett Myers? Will Myers become the dominant start they think he’ll be, or will he regress into a double AA quality pitcher. That said, they are in the market for C. C. Sabathia and look to make some noise in that way.

Anyway, There’s not much more to say about the Phillies other than they have owned us the last two seasons and hopefully will slow down a little against us in the second half. They are easily a 90 win team and I think they will be the team tied with Florida for the lead at the end of the season.

Prediction: 90-72, Tied 1st

- Akshay

Morton’s Chipper, Taking On Phillies

Charlie Morton takes the mound tonight against the Phillies – hoping the Braves offense can back him this time out.  And, unexpectedly, Chipper Jones may be in the lineup doing his part. That’ll help Morton feel happier – or even Chipper – if you will, about this game.

Chipper ran some sprints today and noticed significant improvement in his right quad.  He told Bobby Cox about an hour ago he was ready to be in the lineup for the game tonight.  The final decision will be made after batting practice, but Chipper, who was expected to go on the DL today, normally knows his body pretty well.  I’d expect to see him doing his part.  Hopefully he’s kept up his hot swing while he’s been unable to run, because I can’t wait to see him in front of Mark Teixeira, who has been absolutely on fire recently.  Oh, and we get Mark Kotsay back from the DL tonight.  And if that’s not good enough, we’ll get Yunel Escobar back in the lineup tomorrow.  We’ll see an improvement in offense with those three.

Morton needs a win.  He’s had three starts and is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA, but he’s pitched very well in all of those starts – not giving up more than 3 earned runs.  He’s due tonight and if the guys can deliver offensively, we should see another W for the Bravos.

Time to make a run to the top of the division, gentlemen.  Go get ‘em!

- Colin

NL East: The Big Picture

Here’s the big picture in the NL East right now:

Florida Marlins: Can they hold it together? Nobody expected to see these guys in first this far into the season.  I think even the Marlins are surprised.  That hasn’t kept them from acting like they belong in first.  Anchored offensively by Uggla, Hermida, and Ramirez, the Marlins have come out to score this year – currently ranked 10th in the league with runs scored.  The rotation has been solid as well – only six different pitchers have started games this year.  The Marlins recently picked up Jacque Jones to shore up their outfield after he was released by the Tigers.  But if the Tigers can afford to release him, will he help?  The biggest question remains: can the Marlins keep it up?

Atlanta Braves: Sure, the Braves can win at home, but they have to be able to win on the road or nothing will come of it. The Braves have a rock solid offense led by the mighty Chipper Jones, but they’ve had some injury issues on their pitching staff – Smoltz is moving to the bullpen, Rafael Soriano has spent significant time on the DL, but they’ll get those two plus Mike Gonzalez back from the DL here soon. The question – will they trade for another starter? Not if Jorge Campillo can keep up his Greg Maddux impression (and get rid of some pesky blisters).

Philadelphia Phillies:  The Phillies are shadowing the Braves as they both stalk the Marlins.  Their offense has been good but hasn’t been firing on all cylinders for more than a game or two at a time, and past Cole Hamels their other starters have ERAs at or above 4.37.  Brett Myers has dropped his last four starts, and Adam Eaton is still winless.  If the Phillies’ starters can get their acts together, this is a much more dangerous team – already they’re fourth in the NL with 26 quality starts – but they have potential for much more.  On the other hand, their bullpen has been great – lowing the team ERA to a 5th best 3.98.  The Phillies could come together to be a very dangerous team.

New York Mets: The Mets’ manager Willie Randolph is under fire for his team’s poor play. And the Mets have had poor play as of late. They’re now in fourth place struggling to beat decent teams. The team is oft-injured. Ryan Church likes concussions, Moises Alou caught Mike Hampton syndrome, and Marlon Anderson pulled up lame. And that’s just the last series in Atlanta. Pedro comes back soon, but will he really help? Johan Santana hasn’t been the savior he was billed as, either. This team has got to start playing ball if they want to hang it at the top of the division.

Washington Nationals:  The Nationals are just chilling out in the NL East basement, 7.5 games out of first with a .420 winning percentage.  Their offense is one of the worst in the NL, ranking third to last in runs scored, second to last in OBP and OPS, and last in batting average, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.  Their pitching staff is better, but not by much, ranked 12/16 in ERA and 13/16 in Batting Average Against.  This is likely something we see continued for most of the season.

What do you see happening?  Can the Marlins hold it together?  Will the Braves start winning on the road?  Can the Phillies fire on all cylinders?  Are the Mets and Willie Randolph doomed to oblivion?

Hamels Handles Braves 5-0

When the hottest hitter in baseball is sitting out of the lineup, you’d expect that there’d be a couple offensive hitches.  Chipper sat with a mild groin strain last night, and the Braves were unable to get anything going against Cole Hamels and the Philadelphia Phillies.  Kelly Johnson also got a break and Ruben Gotay got the start at second.  Omar Infante got the start at third for Chipper.  The offense was benign without Chipper and nothing got going all night long.

Starting on the mound for the Braves was Chuck James, who had given up four home runs in 19 innings to date this year.  He gave up three homers and five runs in just four innings last night.  To quote him “I’ve just got to learn how to pitch again.”  I know that the Citizens Bank Ballpark is famous for being a hitters park, but the Braves have to get more out of their starters to compete in games like this.

Cole Hamels, on the other hand, was excellent.  He baffled Braves hitters all night long and ended with a four-hit shutout.  That makes the Braves’ road record 6-16 – and yes, that’s the worst in the majors.

James is likely out of the starting rotation for a bit here.  Who do you want to see replace him?  Jeff Bennett?  The AJC suggested Charlie Morton, a pitching prospect we saw in spring training but has been spending some time at Richmond before he comes to the majors.  Do you think it’s time to give Morton a go?