Looking into the Crystal Ball: Predictions for the Rest of the Year

Written by Caleb on June 23, 2011 – 12:06 pm

The season is 46% completed, so it is well past time to start making predictions on the finishing order of the National League. The previous statement is completely sarcastic (still need to find that sarcasm font), however I do think a significant amount of the season has been played, enough so that we should, by now, have a clearer picture of how teams will continue to play and how the season should finish. Using the Pythagoren W-L formula from Baseball-Reference, I am going to predict how the final season standings will look. As a note, current Pythagorean W-L records are within 2 games of actual wins and losses through the games on June 21, except for the Giants who statistically “should” have four less wins and the Astros who “should” have three more wins. With the calculations this close to the actual records, I feel confident the formula will provide a reasonably accurate prediction. As with all predictions, mine will probably be wrong. If the Braves go on a tear and win the NL East, I will happily eat crow.

Let’s start with the NL West.

	Wins	Losses
ARI	85	77
COL	84	78
SFG	77	85
LAD	73	89
SDP	71	91

The results are not entirely surprising. Arizona has been playing the best baseball of those five teams recently. San Francisco’s loss of Buster Posey will dramatically affect their offensive output and, more than likely, their pitching output. Colorado seems to always hang around and be in contention towards the end of the year and the prediction parallels that statement. With just one run separating the two, it is a toss-up on which team wins the division.

	Wins	Losses
CIN	87	75
STL	85	77
MIL	84	78
PIT	77	85
CHC	66	96
HOU	65	97

The NL Central is the closest race with three teams separated by three games. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals respond the next six to eight weeks without Albert Pujols. With Pujols having a sub-par year, I believe the Cardinals can stay within striking distance until he returns. This is especially true if Lance Berkman can continue to provide some power.

Cincinnati has played well, and if the Cardinals do struggle without Pujols, I can easily see this team stringing together a few series wins and pulling away from Cardinals and Brewers.

I do not see Milwaukee competing with those two for the rest of the year, but with an injury here or there to Cincinnati and Milwaukee finally healthy, there is a slight possibility for the Brewers to test the Reds to the end of the season.

	Wins	Losses
PHI	100	62
ATL	91	71
WSN	83	79
NYM	78	84
FLA	71	91

The NL East appears to be the easiest to predict. A majority of analysts predicted that the Phillies and the Braves would finish first and second. I’m surprised at how easily the Braves will win the wild card race. I was expecting it to come down to the wire (which I’m sure it will), even in the formula. A four-win lead is not something I am even willing to predict now.

The Phillies have played exceedingly well considering the injuries they have had to endure. I have no reason to doubt their ability to play at this high of a level throughout the rest of the season. Their offense should continue to play at a high-level and of course their pitching staff should still be un-hittable.

However, I am dubious of the Braves continuing as they are. The pitching will continue to be excellent, of that I have very little doubt. What about the offense though? Even as awful as the offense has been, the Braves are still predicted to win 91 games. Thank you pitching staff. What happens if Uggla starts hitting .250 and his home run total trends towards thirty for the year? Heyward is predicted to return to last year’s form at some point this year and Prado should be ready to contribute as soon as the infection is knocked out. What does this offense look like in a few weeks with a healthy lineup and an effective Uggla?  Is the team still on pace for 91 wins or is it on pace for 95?

The four playoff teams will consist of NL East winner Philadelphia, NL Central winner Cincinnati,  NL West winner Arizona, and the wild card winner, Atlanta. The Phillies will face off against the Diamondbacks with the Braves will face the Reds. The NLCS will have the Phillies and Braves squaring off. I am too biased to make and actual prediction on that game, so I’ll just leave it at that.

What do you think? Will the offense turn around? Will the Phillies continue to dominate? With nice games remaining with the Phillies, what do you think the Braves’ record will be against them for the remainder of the season?

Tags: Atlanta Braves, Divisions, playoffs, Predictions, Wild Card
Posted in General | 2191No Comments »http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F2011%2F06%2F23%2Flooking-into-the-crystal-ball-predictions-for-the-rest-of-the-year%2FLooking+into+the+Crystal+Ball%3A+Predictions+for+the+Rest+of+the+Year2011-06-23+16%3A06%3A52Calebhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F%3Fp%3D2191

What I’m Watching For…

Written by Rue on March 29, 2011 – 3:43 pm

The season hasn’t officially started yet, and while catching my occasional pre-season game on tv and perusing my twitter feed, I have a few key observations that I think are going to be tell-tale signs about the remainder of our season.

Firstly, I refuse to look at the first 4 weeks of the season and making any conclusions about what will happen mid-to-late-season. My reasoning is this: new manager, reorganized staff, new players in key positions, and some youth.

I think that it is imperative to remember that this team just came off of a phenomenal 2010 season under entirely different management and a different squad. Fredi Gonzalez will certainly have a different approach to the game; therefore strategically speaking, expect to see a different ball club.

Secondly, I am not on the Chipper Jones bandwagon. Don’t get me wrong, I get excited to see great performance from Chipper in preseason, but I refuse to bank on it. I see a healthy number 10 through the end of May, after that, we’ll be pulling in someone new. I think Chipper’s leadership is invaluable to the team as a whole, but I will stick to my guns and say that he is not the tie that binds. Whereas important, he is not going to be the deciding factor for our 2011 season.

Thirdly, keep your eyes open for Alex Gonzalez. I don’t think many people are as excitedly watching him as they are Dan Uggla, but I am willing to wager that Gonzalez will be a huge contributor to the team both offensively and defensively. Comments are constantly being made about his transition from AL to NL, but with the .292 average coming out of the spring (ABOVE Prado), I expect that he will improve and become one of our most consistent at-bats.

Fourthly, I’m hopeful for a great Freddie Freeman season, but I’m not holding my breath. This reminds me so much of a Jordan Schafer debut with lots of hype. I think Freeman certainly has the talent to be an outstanding player, but this isn’t the minors. I think we will see hot and cold performances this season, but I’m not confident he will be the next Rookie of the Year.

Finally, I’m excited for Derek Lowe and ready to see consistently strong performances. Keep your eyes on him…same goes for Huddy. I think we will be able to pull out big wins with those two on the mound. As for Tommy Hanson, don’t count on him. If my predictions are correct, we will never see a truly consistent pitcher. In fact, I believe that it will be nearly impossible to say “Tommy Hanson pitched his game today” because we’ll never really know what that is due to incredible inconsistency.

Those are my predictions and things to watch for, and although there is lots to be seen, I hope that I am proven wrong in some aspects, and completely correct in others. See you at Turner Field!

Tags: 2011, Dan Uggla, Derek Lowe, Freddie Freeman, Predictions, Roster
Posted in General | 1986No Comments »http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F2011%2F03%2F29%2Fwhat-im-watching-for%2FWhat+I%27m+Watching+For...2011-03-29+19%3A43%3A39Ruehttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F%3Fp%3D1986

Official 2011 Atlanta Braves Predictions

Written by Kent on March 28, 2011 – 11:17 pm

Well folks, with your Atlanta Braves departing Florida, opening day is just hours away.  With spring training coming to a close, I thought I’d pass along my official Braves predictions for 2011.

STARTING LINEUP:

		AVG	HR	RBI	2B	OBP	SB
1 -	Prado (R) LF	.304	17	61	41	.355	5
2 -	McLouth (L) CF	.272	21	78	42	.354	23
3 -	Jones (B) 3B	.293	20	81	22	.380	4	(440 AB’s)
4 -	McCann (L) C	.290	25	95	37	.372	3
5 -	Uggla (R) 2B	.275	32	107	30	.365	0
6 -	Heyward (L) RF	.291	27	102	36	.375	16
7 -	Gonzalez (R) SS	.259	17	74	29	.318	2
8 -	Freeman (L) 1B	.276	18	72	33	.359	4
	AVERAGES:	.283	22	84	34	.360	8

NOTE: These predictions assume relatively good health for each and every player, with the exception of Chipper Jones.

Tags: Atlanta, baseball, Braves, MLB, NL East Blogs, Predictions
Posted in General | 19724 Comments »http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F2011%2F03%2F28%2Fofficial-2011-atlanta-braves-predictions%2FOfficial+2011+Atlanta+Braves+Predictions2011-03-29+03%3A17%3A51Kenthttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F%3Fp%3D1972

2010 Braves Predictions

Written by Kent on April 3, 2010 – 1:11 pm

It won’t be long now. The Ted is officially open for business and opening day is just hours away. This is the EXACT same feeling I used to get a day or two before Christmas as a kid. Just doesn’t get any better than opening day for a true baseball fan. With spring training coming to a close, I thought I’d pass along my official Atlanta Braves predictions for 2010.

NOTE: The following predictions assume relatively good health for each and every player. I fully realize that health isn’t something that can be assumed at all, but I won’t attempt to predict who will or will not be healthy.

STARTING LINEUP:

		AVG	HR	RBI	2B	OBP	SB
1 -	McLouth (CF)	.266	21	63	38	.353	24
2 -	Prado (2B)	.302	16	68	42	.357	4
3 -	Jones (3B)	.306	22	83	26	.404	4
4 -	Glaus (1B)	.263	28	102	30	.361	0
5 -	McCann (C)	.306	26	94	41	.376	3
6 -	Escobar (SS)	.296	17	75	28	.375	6
7 -	Heyward (RF)	.287	24	90	34	.367	15
8 -	*Diaz (LF)	.304	16	77	27	.382	12
	AVERAGES:	.291	21	81	33	.372	8
	TOTALS:	.290	170	650	288	.372	68

*This is provided that M.Diaz receives at least 450 AB’s. He may not reach that total if he is forced to share significant time with M.Cabrera (or potentially even Jordan Schafer later in the year).

STARTING ROTATION:

	W-L	ERA	INN	K’s	QS
Jurrjens	18-9	2.72	209	161	25
Hudson	16-9	3.27	204	163	23
Hanson	17-7	2.83	214	204	23
Lowe	14-11	3.67	207	130	21
Kawakami	12-10	3.76	170	122	17

BULLPEN:

	ERA	INN	K’s	Saves
Wagner	2.83	69	84	31
Saito	2.72	65	67	8
Moylan	2.21	71	62	2
O’Flaherty	3.26	55	40	0
Medlen	4.27	53	62	0

NOTE: I’m only projecting only the 5 relievers who are relatively certain to man the bullpen though the entire season.

TEAM ERA: 3.40

Runs Scored: 787

Record: 94-68

While the individual player predictions above assume a healthy season from that particular player, the projected record and other team predictions take into account a typical degree of wear and tear.  Feel free to chime in with your 2 cents and predictions of your own. And let’s get some hardball goin’ y’all!

Tags: 2010 Braves, Bullpen, Lineup, Predictions, Starting Rotaton
Posted in Speculation | 139314 Comments »http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F2010%2F04%2F03%2F1393%2F2010+Braves+Predictions2010-04-03+18%3A11%3A20Kenthttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bravesblast.com%2F%3Fp%3D1393