2009 Season Preview

Written by Kent on April 5, 2009 – 4:09 pm

Well, here we are on the most magical moment of the calendar year… opening day for the Atlanta Braves. (In case you’re wondering, Christmas morning came in a close second.)

This is a time of year when optimism is almost a cliché. However, for Braves fans, I believe the prevailing optimism surrounding this team is well founded.

The off-season additions to the Braves starting rotation, the return of key relievers, and what promises to be a substantially upgraded outfield offense… It all adds up to a Braves team that I believe will surprise many prognosticators who have already penciled them in for a 3^rd – or even a 4^th – place finish in the NL East.

THE ROTATION

Over the winter, the Braves pulled off an impressive feat by add three quality starters, including an ace, Derek Lowe. And yes, Lowe IS an ace. He’s a second-tier ace (not quite on the level with a Johan Santana), but an ace nonetheless.

Over the last 7 years, he’s average 15 wins, and since moving to the NL 4 years ago, he’s posted a 3.58 ERA. One more thing – and this is HUGE – he steps up in big games. His post-season numbers are solid, and Boston fans will always know him as the guy who pitched all 3 post-season series’ clinching games for the Red Sox, on their way to a World Series victory in ’04.

After Lowe, the Braves have one of the league’s top young starters in Jair Jurrjens. Don’t be surprised if steps up and establishes himself has a legitimate #1 starter this season. Javier Vazquez was another nice addition. Numerous MLB scouts believe he is poised to have a very nice season in Atlanta. I agree. I look for something more in line with his 2007 and Montreal-years numbers than his ’08 stats.

Kenshin Kawakami, the Japanese ace has impressed this spring with a kitchen sink arsenal of pitches, one of the best curveballs in baseball (anywhere), and good control. No one expects him to be the ace here that he was in Japan, but it’s reasonable to look for good things from Kawakami. And Tom Glavine hasn’t looked like the washed up retread many fans took him for over the winter. Let’s not forget that it was just the season before last in which Glavine won 13 games and posted 23 quality starts.

CONCLUSION: This Braves rotation should be the best in the NL East, and has the potential to be the top rotation in the league if everything rolls their way.

And now if you’ll humor me, I will take part in the time honored tradition of pretending to know what’s going to happen in the season ahead.

NOTE: All statistical predictions assume health. I’m not going to try and guess who will or will not be healthy. There is one exception, I’m projecting that Chipper Jones will miss 22 games this season.

MY STARTING ROTATION PREDICTION:

THE BULLPEN

 

Mike Gonzalez has quietly converted 40 of his last 42 save opportunities. He had a rocky Spring, but the Spring Training performance of ‘Big League’ closers rarely means much of anything. The most important thing is that he is now “100%” health-wise and feels good heading into the season. Look for “Gonzo” to be among the league’s best stoppers.

The key to the bullpen will be the healthy return of ’07 bullpen standouts Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano. Moylan, the submarine-throwing Aussie, recorded the third-lowest ERA in baseball (1.80) in 2007, before missing most of last season due to injury. He’s enjoyed a terrific spring, and will be ready to go in Phili. Rafael Soriano, when healthy, is one of best setup men in the game. There was some recent concern about his health; however, it appears that he too will be ready on opening day.

Blaine Boyer was one of the Braves’ most reliable relievers last year through the first half of last season. Fatigue seemed to set in around the 50 appearance mark, after carrying an undue workload in an understaffed, overworked ‘pen. But increased pitching depth should help him this season. Boyer is often said to possess “closer’s stuff”, and has been dominant this spring.

Buddy Carlyle will once again be the Braves’ long-reliever, a role he performed quite capably last year. While Eric O’Flaherty, a hard-throwing fastball/slider lefty and former Mariners’ top prospect, will take over as the situational lefty. He has the stuff to be effective if he can become more consistent. Jeff Bennett will likely serve as Bobby Cox’s ground-ball specialist. And Jorge Campillo may be asked to serve a wide variety of roles, if he can stick around in the bullpen after Tom Glavine is activated from the disabled list later this month (which will shrink the bullpen from 8 to 7 members).

CONCLUSION: Much will depend on the sustained health and effectiveness of Soriano and Moylan. At best, this could be the most dominant ‘pen in baseball. But if the Braves aren’t as fortunate in the health dept., the bullpen might suffer from a lack of depth, and could wind up looking rather ordinary.

MY PREDICTION:

THE LINEUP

Much has been made of the fact that this Braves lineup lacks a 30-40 homerun threat. While that is true, there is more power here than many realize. The Braves are likely to get double-digit homerun totals from every position on the field, and will have an excellent chance to lead the league in doubles.

Beyond Chipper Jones and perhaps Brian McCann, there are no hitters in this Braves order that will strike fear in the hearts of pitchers. However, unlike most lineups, there are no coffee breaks for opposing hurlers. Every last hitter in the Braves batting order can hurt you. What the Braves lack in the way of a Ryan Howard or an Albert Pujols, they largely make up for in depth. Assuming Jeff Francoeur rebounds for a disappointing ’08 season, the Braves will have quality, professional hitters, who will hit for a high average, all the way up and down the order.

CONCLUSION: No, this lineup is not likely to keep pace with Philadelphia in the run scoring department, but they’ll hold their own. This isn’t the best offensive team the Braves have ever assembled, but if everyone remains reasonably healthy and performs as they should, this will be a well above average lineup.

MY PREDICTION:

IN SHORT:

If Jeff Francoeur bounces back with a solid ’09 showing, and the Braves enjoy reasonably good health, particularly in the bullpen, they will have as strong a chance as anyone to take the NL East.

Tags: 2009, 2009 Preview, Preview
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2009 Bullpen Preview – Part 1

Written by Kent on February 17, 2009 – 2:02 am

We apparently didn’t scare Kent off last time around so he’s back with more content for us.  Once again, you can follow Kent on Twitter @FriedBasballATL.

After the addition of three quality starters, the new look Atlanta starting rotation has been the hot topic of conversation among Braves fans. But with as much depth as they now have in their rotation, the bullpen appears to be even deeper. With a number of Braves hurlers already in Orlando, we take a look at the relief corps the Braves are likely to carry to Atlanta roughly 6 weeks from today.  We start this two-part series by looking at the definites and the probables for this year’s bullpen.

THE CAST:

DEFINITE (barring injuries/setbacks): Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan

PROBABLE: Blaine Boyer, Manny Acosta

POSSIBLE: Jorge Campillo, Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle, Phil Stockman, Eric O’Flaherty, Boone Logan, Jeff Ridgway

Mike Gonzalez has quietly become one of the game’s elite closers, carrying a (then major league best) 39 consecutive saves streak into last season after returning from “Tommy John” surgery. The lefty fire-baller featured a mid-to-upper 90′s heater while closing for the Pirates. Since his arrival in Atlanta two years ago, however, his arm that was never entirely healthy or rested, and his fastball topped out at about 93 mph. Despite diminished velocity, “Gonzo” has been effective, with a 3.38 ERA as a Brave, converting 16 of 18 save opportunities.

After his first full off-season since beginning his rehabilitation in 2007, his arm is now 100%, and Gonzalez says he’s “fired up” about the opportunity to finally show Atlanta his very best. With health no longer a concern, look for a big season from the Braves’ closer.

Rafael Soriano, when healthy, is among the best late-inning relievers in baseball. Since his move to the bullpen at that start of his sophomore season in 2003, Soriano has a career ERA of 2.53, with more strikeouts than innings pitched. In a word: Dominant.

Soriano began experiencing pain in his pitching elbow last spring which eventually cost him most of the 2008 season. Fortunately, the cause of the pain was not a structural issue within his elbow. Soriano underwent surgery last fall to reposition a nerve that was apparently the cause of the discomfort. MLB’s Mark Bowman recently reported that, “all indications are that Soriano is healthy”. That’s excellent news for Braves fans.

Peter Moylan was the only pleasant surprise of the 2007 season. Over 80 appearances, Molyan limited opposing hitters to a .208 average, and allowed only 16 earned runs for a 1.80 ERA. It was the third best ERA in all of baseball, and it was the first sub-2.00 ERA to come out of the Atlanta bullpen over a full season since John Smoltz did it in 2003.

Moylan’s stuff is outstanding, but what makes him truly remarkable is that he fires his mid 90′s fastball, baffling changeup, and hard-biting slider with a submarine delivery. Many submarine/sidearm pitchers develop a deceptive pitching motion to compensate for a lack of overwhelming natural ability. Not so in Moylan’s case. His stuff, coupled with a submarine delivery, seems almost unfair.

After experiencing elbow pain last spring, he made it only 2 weeks into the season before joining the expansive disabled list. He underwent “Tommy John” surgery shortly thereafter. Moylan is reportedly ahead of schedule with his rehabilitation, and could be ready for action on opening day. Like Soriano, if healthy, Moylan is one of the best late-inning relievers in the game.

Blaine Boyer has been described by scouts, coaches, and teammates as a talented young pitcher with “closer’s stuff”. Boyer features a heater that pops the mitt in the mid-to-upper 90′s, and a (at times) knee-buckling 12-6 curveball. Boyer was thrust into a key late-inning role after Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano were lost to injuries, and he responded well to the challenge. Through the end of June, Boyer posted a very solid 3.63 ERA. However, after notching nearly 45 innings by the half-way point of the season, he appeared to “hit a wall”, and struggled throughout the second half.

John Smoltz is a big Blaine Boyer believer. He has raved about Boyer’s potential, and spent most of the winter training with him. And “Smoltzy” isn’t the only one ready to buy stock in the 6′ 3″ right-hander. Everyone within the Braves organization seems to think highly of Boyer. And he was rumored to be one of the pieces the Padres wanted in a potential Jake Peavy trade. With the depth of Atlanta’s bullpen this year, Boyer should benefit from less pressure and a reduced work load.

Manny Acosta is another hard-throwing young righty believed to have closer potential. Through 67 Major League games (2007, 2008), Acosta is owner of an outstanding 3.17 early career ERA. Like Boyer, Acosta features a fastball that rests in the mid 90′s. He struggles at times with his control, but if Manny can continue to develop his command of the strike zone, he could play a play a much larger role for the Braves in the near future. Either way, Acosta has already established himself as a valuable member of the Atlanta ‘pen’.

So there’s a quick look at what you can most likely expect to see as a large part of the Braves’ bullpen on opening day.  Barring any unforseen circumstances and injuries, the bullpen has depth and is ready to get to work in the 2009 season.  Are you happy with who we have?  Wish things looked a little different?  Look for the second half of the bullpen preview where we look into the people fighting for the last couple of spots in the bullpen to come tomorrow.

Tags: Blaine Boyer, Bullpen, Manny Acosta, Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan, Preview, Rafael Soriano
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2008 NL West Preview, Part I

Written by Colin on March 3, 2008 – 2:25 pm

The time comes as spring training continues to develop that we dig into the other divisions in the National League, and today we’re looking at the NL West. 2007 saw the Colorado Rockies win not only the wild card but the NL Championship. Though the Diamondbacks took the division title, both the Rockies and the San Diego Padres were within striking distance down to the last couple of games. The West was definitely the strongest division last year, but what is in store for this year?

Arizona Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks won the division by the skin of their teeth last year (though they held the best record in the NL), and we can expect them to make a run for it once again this year. They have some great talent on the team in Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew. They also have enthusiasm (Eric Byrnes), veteran leadership (Randy Johnson), and the ace of the rotation (Brandon Webb). Oh, and they added Oakland’s Dan Haren. They’ll be a very dangerous team, once again expected to finish first in the division.

Colorado Rockies - The Rockies came out last year with a confidence in themselves and took it all the way through the playoffs. They possess one of the strongest offenses in all of the National League – if not the strongest. They play a mile high, which helps a bit, but they’re just good. Their pitching staff was top 10 across the league in ERA, Batting Average Against, OPS, Saves, WHIP, and Quality Starts, so they’re not shabby and have outdone the Coors’ pitching staffs of yesteryear. This year expect to see more of their potent offense playing really good baseball. Holliday, Tulowitzki, and Helton will be sure of that. Their pitching staff led by Jeff Francis, and filled out by Aaron Cook, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Hirsch/Morales will probably produce about the same results as last year, barring any unfortunate injuries. I think the Rockies will compete for second with the Padres in this division in 2008.

San Diego Padres – The Padres barely missed out on the playoffs last year, but we’ll see where they land this year. Once again led by a very strong pitching staff consisting of ace Jake Peavy and Chris Young, veteran magician Greg Maddux, and filled out by Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. Their offense features Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, and Adrian Gonzalez – and there’s nothing super special about it. But that’s OK – their pitching staff is easily arguably the best in the NL. These guys are the opposite of the Rockies – if they struggle, it’ll be their offense.

Part II will come soon, so check back for the Dodgers (who have made all kinds of changes) and the Bonds-less Giants. Til then, enjoy the spring training ball.

Tags: 2008, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, NL West, Preview, San Diego Padres
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