Kenshin Kawakami’s Last Stand

Kenshin Kawakami has taken his 0-9 record to the mound at Turner Field this afternoon in what I hope is his last start in the Atlanta Braves starting rotation.  With Jair Jurrjens hoping to take the start on Wednesday, someone has to head to the bullpen.  It’s been tossed back and forth around here about whether that should be Kawakami or Kris Medlen, but decision time is finally coming near.

Medlen’s coming off of another strong start last night, pitching 6 2/3 innings on one-run baseball.  This brings his record as a starter to 4-0 and brought his ERA on the season to a 3.15.  In the 9 starts Medlen has made for the Braves this season, 6 of them have been quality starts and the team record is 8-1.

Kawakami, on the other hand, has made 14 starts and also has 6 quality starts on the season.  The team record in those starts is 4-10.  The argument has long been that Kawakami isn’t getting run support from the Braves offense (which is somewhat true as he has received 28 runs of support this season; an average of 2 runs per game), but the big picture is that he’s just not winning games.

All things considered, I hope the game today goes well for Kawakami and that he can get a win or at least a no-decision so that he doesn’t have to leave the rotation at 0-10.  Hopefully the Braves can find value for him in a long relief role in the pen to help the team out down the stretch.  I just don’t feel there’s any choice to be made between Medlen and Kawakami based on performance.  Medlen has earned the job.

Kawakami or Medlen? The Answer May Suprise You

After posting yesterday that it was time for Kenshin Kawakami to leave the starting rotation for the Atlanta Braves, we kicked off the battle between those who say KK should go to the bullpen when Jair Jurrjens returns and those who think Kris Medlen should move back.  Browsing around the web, it seems that there are a number of supporters of each option, although, here on BravesBlast, 73% of poll takers think that KK should lose his starting job as opposed to 22% for Medlen.

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington addresses the flaming arrows aimed at Braves’ starter, Kenshin Kawakami, and solves the dilemma of who to send to the ‘pen upon Jair jurrjens’ return. Throw in your 2 cents and leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Hudson Inching Towards Comeback

If all goes as planned, we could see Tim Hudson back in an Atlanta Braves jersey by mid-August.  Hudson has been sidelined for about a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery.  Last night, he took the start in Gwinnett, throwing 4 scoreless innings of 4-hit baseball.  27 of his 41 pitches were thrown for strikes, while he struck out 4 batters and didn’t walk anyone.

If all goes well with his next starts in Triple-A, we should fully expect to see Hudson heading back to Turner Field.  This leaves the question, however, who is the odd-man-out in the rotation?  Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Hanson, Kawakami and then Hudson would all be looking at starting pitcher spots.  Lowe, Jurrjens and Vazquez all are undeniably safe in their starting jobs.  As far as I see it, Kawakami would be the 6th man when the situation arises, barring a complete breakdown by Tommy Hanson.

It’s not a bad situation to have, with 6 capable starters on a squad.  Any injuries to a starter will be a much less scary prospect if we are carrying an extra starter as a long reliever.  It’s not an easy situation for a lot of starters when it comes to switching to the bullpen, but the front office is going to have to make a choice.  What do you think should happen?  My vote is for Kawakami to head to the bullpen if all stays as it is right now.

Glavine Says He’s Ready

With five scoreless innings for AAA-Gwinnett last night, Tom Glavine notched his first minor league win since 1987.  Afterwards, he expressed his opinion that he was ready to start again in the Majors as soon as next Tuesday against the Cubs.  Bobby Cox, however, has said that Glavine will make one more minor league start for Class-A Rome on Tuesday before being considered to come back to Atlanta.

Glavine will likely fill the fifth spot in the rotation that has been a struggling point for the Braves since being filled by the combination of Jo-Jo Reyes and Kris Medlen.  Between the two, they have compilied an 0-4 record across 7 starts with a 7.64 ERA.

Though Glavine is still working a little rust out of his control since returning from elbow and shoulder surgery that ended his 2008 season, he is still likely a better candidate for the spot in the rotation.  Honestly, it can’t get much worse.  I think we’ll be seeing him back in Atlanta by mid-June definitely.  What’re everyone’s thoughts on Glavine?

Braves’ 2009 Starting Rotation Preview

Coming off of a forgetable 2008 season, the starting rotation for the Braves has been completely retooled and is ready for action in 2009.  While injuries and lack of depth prevented the rotation from doing much of anything last year, the new signings of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Kenshin Kawakami give a new look and new hopes for 2009.  

Derek Lowe: The sinker-ball specialist has averaged 15 wins over his last 7 seasons, and boasts a 3.58 ERA over the past 4 years since moving to the National League. He steps up in big games and has a track record of post-season success. He is also quite durable and can be counted on for 200 innings as the ace of this rotation.

Jair Jurrjens: The rookie right-hander was the lone ray of light in the Braves rotation last year, recording 13 wins and a 3.68 ERA in 188 innings. And it wasn’t fool’s gold. Jurrjens is armed with 4 quality pitches, including a fastball he can run up into the mid-90′s, and an outstanding changeup. Teammates rave about his maturity and “pitch to contact”, ground-ball approach to pitching. Jurrjens also has excellent command. Baseball America named him the best control pitcher in the Detroit Tigers’ organization a couple of years ago. Many in baseball believe that Jurrjens is a young ace in the making, and it appears he may have the tools to prove them right.

Javier Vazquez: In 2007, Vazquez went 15-8 for the White Sox, with a 3.74 ERA and 213 strikeouts over 216 innings. These numbers were reminiscent of the success he enjoyed in Montreal before his move to the AL in 2004. Last year, though he again logged 200 innings and struck out 200 batters, his ERA spiked to 4.68. Vazquez should benefit from escaping the hitter’s paradise of U.S. Cellular Field (and the DH) in favor of a more pitcher-friendly, Turner Field. It has also been suggested that Vazquez may find a greater level of comfort in the NL, under the leadership of Bobby Cox. For these reasons, multiple scouts have stated a belief that Vazquez is poised for a big year in Atlanta.

Kenshin Kawakami: Winner of the Cy Young equivalent, Sawamura Award, Kawakami is a well established star in Japan. He has a career record of 112-72 through 11 seasons, with a 3.32 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a ratio of 1328 Ks to 351 BBs in 1642.3 IP. His best pitches are a cut fast ball with low 90′s velocity and a knee-buckling slow curve.  The Braves are confident that Kawakami will make a successful transition to Major League Baseball to help anchor the middle of their rotation.

Tom Glavine: Coming off of an injury-riddled season, at age (soon to be) 43, there are more questions surrounding Glavine than any other Braves starter. But if he is in fact healthy, there is plenty of reason to believe that he could still be effective. Before the arm trouble began very early last season, Glavine looked sharp. And despite an unimpressive ERA in 2007, he was actually quite good. Glavine finished the ‘07 season with 23 quality starts, which is territory usually reserved for aces in that category. It was no accident that he won 13 games that year. If his arm is sound, he could provide the Braves with another quality veteran starter. After all, Jamie Moyer (a soft-tossing lefty cut from the same mold as Glavine) is several years older, and still getting outs.

OUTLOOK: Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this Atlanta rotation is its depth. While it features noone of the stature of a Johan Santana or a Jake Peavy, the Braves rotation is 5-deep; loaded with quality arms. This rotation figures to be durable, and should eat a lot of innings, taking a great deal of pressure off of the bullpen. And if by chance a Braves starter should visit the disabled list this season, Tommy Hanson (perhaps the top pitching prospect in all of baseball) is waiting in the wings. The Braves also have other quality alternatives for the rotation, including Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton and Jo-Jo Reyes.

With plenty of talent and depth, this rotation is a safe bet to be among the league’s best.  What are you expecting out of the staff this season?  Who will surprise and who won’t live up to expectations?

State of the Rotation

With just a few weeks left until the beginning of the 2009 spring training season, the Braves still have a few questions that need to be answered. The rotation is pretty much set (unless something crazy and unexpected happens in the next couple of weeks) and seven out of the eight fielding spots are set. We signed a back-up catcher in David Ross, who, with a .222 career batting average, is a huge upgrade over the backup catchers we’ve had the past few seasons.

Other signings obviously include Derek Lowe (Starting Pitcher), Kenshin Kawakami (SP), Omar Infante (2-year deal, IF util) and Greg Norton (PH). Omar Infante’s signing is very important because it gives us a legit utility guy that can play all eight positions and could probably pitch if you asked him to (….maybe not). Greg Norton gives us a great late game hitting threat and a guy that can play the outfield and first base in a spot start situation…he could probably pitch too…

Finally the signing of Derek Lowe, while ridiculous and criticized by many, gives us a light in one of the darkest off-seasons we have had. Lowe may not be the savior we were looking for in Jake Peavy, but there’s one major difference between the two: Lowe wants to be here. Yes, he is making 60 million over the next four years, but with the same money Peavy would not have been willing to be “the guy” and really did not want to be here even with the same money. Plus, I am of the mind that Peavy would have been more of a Mike Hampton than Lowe is with his elbow troubles. Lowe has pitched at least 30 times every year since his first year as a starter in 2002.

So with the rotation looking like it is, the Braves may have one of the better rotations in the league, far better than last year’s potential rotation of John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton and Jair Jurrjens. This year’s looks like: Lowe, Kawakami, Javier Vazquez, Jurrjens and a slew of young talent headed by Morton, Reyes, Campillo and Hanson at the five spot.

Here’s the thing though, last season the Braves went into the season unsure about a lot on their pitching staff: Will Smoltz’s shoulder hold up throughout the season? Will Hampton actually throw an official pitch? Will Glavine have anything left after the meltdown in New York the prior season? Obviously the answer to the first question was no. Mike Hampton did throw a pitch, but too little too late. And Glavine barely made it into the summer before he landed on the DL for the first time for a pitching-related injury when he tore the flexor tendon in his left elbow. Tim Hudson, the most durable of the bunch, was not willing to disappoint the Braves by breaking the string of injuries to starting pitchers (seriously guys, I’m pretty sure ALL of the starters we used last year got hurt in some capacity, Smoltz, Glavine and Hampton are obvious, Jeff Bennett was out, Chuck James was shut down early as well and Jurrjens had that freak injury falling down the dugout steps in Chicago).

Should the Braves have the benefit of making the postseason this year, they will have one of the most dominant three or four man rotations with Lowe, Hudson, Jurrjens and Kawakami/Vazquez.

Here’s a numbers breakdown of the starters with respect to last season and their careers:

• Derek Lowe – 2008 – 34 starts, 14-11, 211 IP, 3.24 ERA, 147 Ks, Career – 255 starts, 533 appearances, 126-107, 85 saves, 1275 Ks, 3.75 ERA

• Kenshin Kawakami – spent 10 seasons in Japan, seven of which he pitched over 160 innings – 2008 – 16 starts, 20 appearances, 9-5, 117 IP, 2.30 ERA, 112 Ks, Career – 231 games, 106-62, 1201 Ks, 3.17 ERA

• Javier Vazquez – 2008 – 33 starts, 12-16, 208 IP, 4.67 ERA, 200 Ks, Career – 353 starts, 127-129, 2015 Ks, 4.32 ERA

• Jair Jurrjens – 2008 – 31 starts, 13-10, 188 IP, 3.68 ERA, 152 Ks.

Smoltz To The DL

John Smoltz was placed on the 15-day DL today after his shoulder was examined and biceps tendinitis was discovered.  Smoltz, who had issues with control and speed in his last start in New York, visited Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, who found a very inflamed biceps tendon and also inflammation in his rotator cuff.

This is Smoltzie’s second trip to the DL this season – and leaves Tim Hudson to ace the staff while Smoltz is recovering.  The Braves hope that a few weeks now will let Smoltz finish out the season strong, assuming the inflammation doesn’t come back.  The problem with that is I’m not 100% confident it’ll go away – it’s been an issue on and off now since the end of last season.

Can the Braves win without Smoltz?  It’s a good question. We need him and Hudson at the top of the pitching staff in order to allow Jurrjens and whatever other starters are healthy to anchor the back end of the rotation.  The good news is that Glavine is ready to pitch tonight and was activated from the DL as Smoltz went down.  Hampton is scheduled to make a start at AAA Richmond tomorrow and may be activated immediately after that if he can stay in one piece.

Not good for the Braves’ starting rotation, which has seen much more turbulence this season that previously expected.  We’ll keep you posted as we hear more.

2008 Rotation Thoughts

Braves.com eluded towards the Braves starting rotation for the beginning of the season in an article yesterday, saying that Tim Hudson was in line to lead the Braves against the Nationals in the season opener on March 30th.  This would leave John Smoltz to make the start in the home opener against the Pirates on the following day.

As of now, there have been no official announcements from Bobby Cox or the Braves organization, but signs are pointing towards the starting rotation being Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton and the currently undecided fifth spot.  This would be the second time in the past three years that Hudson would get the honors of leading off the season for the Braves.

Personally, I’d like to see the rotation pan out this way for a couple of reasons:  First of all, it would allow John Smoltz to pitch the home opener, which I’m sure fans at the game would love to see.  Secondly, this would leave Smoltz to finish out the series against the Mets in the first weekend of the season.  Either way, we should expect to see Smoltz and Hudson in the final two games of that series.

More to come on the starting rotation as we hear it and when we finally have an official announcement from the Braves as to who the starting five will be.

Who’s Number One? Smoltz or Hudson?

As the pitching rotation continues to shake out, Bobby Cox has to decide whether John Smoltz or Tim Hudson is going to be the rotation ace and start opening day.  Now, I wrote the last article on this and I thought that Smoltz was going to be the ace – simply because it’s tradition at this point.  However, Smoltz said over the weekend that he thought Hudson should take the #1 spot.  Hudson claims Smoltz just doesn’t want to pitch against the Nationals in the first game of the season.

Who should be the ace?  Not that it really matters who is #1 and who pitches #2, but let’s argue both sides. Read more »