State Of The Braves Heading Into July

After the hottest of Mays, the Braves were forced to turn their calendars to June (despite consistent urging from Chip Carey) and have seemingly left their past struggles in the month behind. The Braves have gone 17-11 in the month despite having to deal with significant injuries, including the loss of their All-Star center fielder Nate McLouth who in 2008 batted…never mind. All joking aside, here are the reasons why I believe the Braves more than survived June as well as some concerns looking forward.

1) Martin Prado, Troy Glaus, and Kris Medlen

After a ridiculous April in which he reached base over 42% of his plate appearances, Martin Prado came back down to earth in May. At some point during the month Jerome Jurenovich suggested that he should be starting the All-Star game; I almost fell off the couch laughing. Of course at that point Chase Utley was on fire, and I could never have foreseen the power surge Prado has had. While posting an OPS of .947, Prado led all National League second basemen with 14 extra base hits in the month of June. He now boasts the highest OPS amongst all NL second baggers and almost unquestionably deserves to start the All-Star game. With Utley on the DL and Prado leading the majors in hits, this seems very likely.

Troy Glaus has been no slouch either. A couple of weeks ago I wrote that I would rather have a former Brave who sometimes forgets that he is playing baseball while in the field over TG. I no longer feel this way. After being named National League POTM in May, Glaus has continued to swing a hot bat in June. Although his OBP dipped, he still belted 8 doubles and 6 homeruns to tie Prado for the team lead in extra base hits for the month. He also came close to stopping a couple of balls hit to his left (wink wink).

While Tim Hudson’s numbers are spectacular, I would argue Kris Medlen has been better. According to Baseball Prospectus’s SIERA (Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average), which is basically a stat that shows how lucky Ubaldo Jimenez is, Medlen has out performed Huddy and ranks 33rd in the category amongst all Major League pitchers with at least 70 IP. Perhaps more importantly for the Braves, Medlen has been their saving grace in the absence of Jair Jurrjens and will now allow them to move Kenshin Kawakami to the bullpen.

2) J-Hey to the DL and Big Red struggles

On May 30th Jason Heyward’s OPS was 1.017, tops in the National League. Since then Heyward has struggled mightily, posting an OPS of .532 in June while striking out a whopping 32 times. While the Braves and Jason cite his injured left thumb as the reason for his struggles, I doubt this to be the sole reason. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com pointed out in a recent article, Heyward was on fire for the first fifteen games after jamming his thumb which hardly seemed to be bothering him then. While it apparently got worse, it seemingly became an issue only after he started struggling. Hopefully rest will allow Jason to regain his stroke and return to his spectacular form.

While Tommy Hanson has struggled in his past two starts, I see little reason for concern. His K/BB ratio is slightly better than it was a year ago as he is striking out a batter an inning, and his BABIP is a ridiculously high .347. This is simply a product of bad luck and will almost certainly come down. Two bad starts in a row is not a trend, it is merely an aberration. As long as his velocity remains constant (and according to pitch FX it has) there is nothing to worry about.

Despite their success so far this season, the Braves could easily finish third in the NL East. While I think they are still the favorites to win it at this point, anything can happen over the course of the next three months. Hopefully the return of Jurrjens and the recovery of Heyward will be more than enough for the team to distance themselves from the ailing Phillies and overachieving Mets in July.

Who’s Ready For Baseball?

It seems hardly fitting that today is the first Spring Training game for the Braves.  I’m sitting here staring out the window in Atlanta to a very gray day outside and watching my car slowly get covered in snow.  I’ve lived in Atlanta for 9 years and it has snowed maybe 3 times since I’ve been here, but I’m pretty sure this is the 5th significant snow this winter.  That’s all irrelevant for the most part however.

In a couple of hours, the Braves are scheduled to take the field for their opening Grapefruit League game against the Mets.  It’s mid-60s there, slight chance of rain, but nevertheless, it’s time for baseball.

So here’s where we are and what we’ve learned thus far in Spring Training:

Jason Heyward hits bombs. We’ve heard it plenty from every news source covering the Braves (and a number that really aren’t).  Parking lots.  New nets to protect cars.  We get it.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m pumped to see this kid play, but I’m just ready to see how he handles live pitching.  Batting practice is one thing, but I have no doubts that he can bring it at a big league level.

Jair Jurrjens is okay. It’ll be a few days before his pitch counts start to increase again, but all indications are that Jurrjens will be okay in the long run.  I’d much rather the training staff takes their time with him and keeps him healthy down the stretch this season.

Derek Lowe is the opening day starter.  I’m not terribly sure I agree with this, but it’s a showing of confidence from Bobby Cox so I can accept it.  Any situation where Tim Hudson is your number four starter…..I’m okay with it.  I’ve heard a little distaste about that fact, but seriously, step back and look at it.  If this rotation is healthy, it’s stacked.

The games don’t matter. So maybe we haven’t really learned this one in Spring Training, but it’s just a reminder to everyone that the outcome of Spring Training games isn’t the real thing we should be looking at during this time of year.  Keep your eye on individual performances, watch the young guys get the chance to show off a little, and get pumped up for baseball to get started back up at the Ted.

So that’s that, Braves vs. Mets at 1pm today.  Tommy Hanson will throw a couple of innings and I’m looking for another big season out of him.  What are you looking at in Spring Training?  Young guys?  Old guys trying to regain form?  Either way, it’s time for baseball.

Braves Down Yanks In Game 1

Tommy Hanson improved his record to 3-0 since being called up to the bigs and the Braves recorded their second shutout in a row tonight against the visiting New York Yankees.

Braves vs. Yankees - 06/23/2009

Sparked by a 3-run third inning with a 2-RBI double from Garret Anderson and a solo home run from Brian McCann in the 8th, the Braves shut down the Yankees 4-0, issuing only 4 hits.

The game wasn’t without tense moments however, with Tommy Hanson and Peter Moylan both working out of some jams with runners in scoring position.  Let’s hope this is a good sign for the Braves when the Yankees series continues tomorrow and we can put together a much-needed win streak.

Hanson To Make Debut

When the Braves take the field today at 1:30, Tommy Hanson will take the mound for his first major league start. That’s right, we’ve heard legendary tales of the 6’6″ pitcher’s fastball and curveball, but today we get to see it in person (or on TV).

Hanson is 3-3 at AAA Gwinnett, with a 1.49 ERA, 90 strikeouts, all while holding opponents to an incredible .169 average. His last four starts have just been dazzling – he’s gone 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA, with 33 strikeouts in just over 25 innings.

Opposite Hanson is the Brewers’ Manny Parra, 3-7 with a 6.75 ERA. Hopefully we can provide some offense. Any offense. At all. Let’s give Hanson the run support he deserves.

McLouth To Hit Third

Chipper Jones hits third for the Braves. He’s always hit third, and he prefers third. But even Chipper is willing to admit he may get more RBI opportunities with Nate McLouth in front of him. “Bobby wants to do what’s best for the club,” said Chipper, “and if he thinks Nate might get a couple of hits hitting in the third hole because I’m behind him, then so be it.”

Nate’s excited about it too – calling Chipper “one of the greatest switch-hitters of all time.” McLouth has been hitting third for the Pirates this year and will be hopefully more productive than he was in Pittsburgh as he’s surrounded by better players – some decent leadoff talent in Escobar and Johnson (who’s been tearing it up lately), and with Chipper and McCann behind him. We’ll see what happens.

In other news, notice the Braves orchestrated the rain to allow yesterday’s game to be rained out. After making tons of money off ticket sales for Tommy Hanson’s Saturday debut, they hope to cash in on Sunday’s game now as well. Ok, maybe I’m going a little far, but a conspiracy theory never hurt anybody.

Why The Braves Didn’t Need Glavine

Tom Glavine was released yesterday by the Braves because Frank Wren and company determined that he wasn’t going to be effective at the big league level. They’re right. It was my opinion when Glavine was signed that once he finished rehabbing, he’d only be a mediocre pitcher. It’s just not needed on a club with all the pitching talent we currently have.

Last year, when Glavine was healthy and started 13 games before he was injured, he was only a shadow of his former self. He only had 5 quality starts – 38% of his starts were considered Quality Starts (> 6 IP, </= 3 RA). His career average is 64%, including last year. We saw him break 100 pitches thrown once out of those 13 appearances. The Braves scored an average of 4.9 runs per game while he was on the mound, and yet he still ended up with a 2-4 record and a 5.54 ERA. The bottom line is he just isn’t as sharp as he used to be. Sure, he’ll pitch alright for someone, but that’s not us. We’ve got Tommy Hanson coming to start Saturday – and if the hype is right, he’s ridiculously sharp.

Yes, it’s definitely surprising and somewhat sad to see the Braves release someone who has such history with the team and with baseball, but this is a baseball move and frankly I don’t feel much connection to Glavine the way I did to Smoltz. It’s just not there, ever since he decided to play traitor and move to the NY Mets for a while. Sure, he’s a great ballplayer and a nice guy, but he had no loyalty for his team and I don’t feel a need to stand up and be emotional about his release when he wasn’t going to provide a boost to the pitching staff.

The bottom line is that with a good starting four, Tommy Hanson ready to come up, and Tim Hudson coming back from surgery later this year, we just had no room for a mediocre, shell-of-his-former-self Tom Glavine. That’s a little sad, but not that sad. Farewell Tommy – thanks for all the good memories and best of luck looking for another job. I hear the Mets could use an arm or two.

Braves Call Up Hanson

Tommy Hanson is coming to Atlanta. He’ll make his first start for the Atlanta Braves this Saturday against the Milwaukee Brewers. Hanson has been tearing it up in Gwinnett for the AAA ballclub with a 1.50 ERA and 90 strikeouts.

Hanson will take the rotation slot previously held by Kris Medlen – who has been moved to the bullpen. It’s about time for us to see what Hanson can do – he’s the most hyped prospect the Braves have had in years. Frank Wren said it was time to call up Hanson when they determined they’d rather have him starting than Tom Glavine, who was released earlier today.

Looking forward to seeing Hanson? Will he flop or be the real deal?

Braves’ Pitching Abounds

The Braves starting pitching continues to excel this season – and while Frank Wren searches for some more offense to back up the staff, the Braves are not lacking in starting pitching depth.

Derek Lowe is 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA (8 quality starts), Jair Jurrjens is 5-2 with a beautiful 2.59 ERA (7 quality starts), and Javier Vazquez is doing ok – he has an even 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA (7 quality starts). Behind that, Kenshin Kawakami appears to be struggling at 3-6 with a 4.73 ERA, but you’d be having trouble too if you only got an average of 1.7 runs scored per game when you were pitching. With such lousy run support, it’s a wonder Kawakami has three wins.

Glavine is ready to come to Atlanta and start. Whether or not he’ll be good, we’ll see. He’s ready though. Kris Medlen had two rough starts but was great in his last start as he struck out nine in six innings of work. He may just have a chance to stick around and prove he has the stuff he needs to excel in the majors. And of course we have Tommy Hanson honing his skills in Gwinnett, waiting to make the 45 minute drive south and show us his stuff. Oh, and Tim Hudson is on track for a return in August or September.

So what happens now? We’ve got Tommy ready to pitch, Medlen to give some playing time to, Hanson to fit in, and 2 pitchers that are doing alright.

I think the odd man out, interestingly enough, is Javier Vazquez. He has a high strikeout rate, but the Braves give him the most run support while he’s on the mound (5.5 runs per game) and yet he’s only 4-4 – and the Braves are only .455 when he gets the ball. To give you an idea of how bad that is, the Braves are .400 with Jo-Jo Reyes starting. Kawakami needs more run support, but with that run support he’ll likely be much better. He could end up being the odd man out too.

Who’s the odd man out? What does our rotation/bullpen look like at the end of the year?

Hanson’s Great Outing Goes Unrewarded

Tommy Hanson took to the hill for his second start for the Gwinnett Braves last night to try to follow up his 4-1/3 inning, 10 strikeout performance in the season opener.  Once again, the 6-foot-6 future phenom looked sharp.  Through 5-2/3 innings last night against the Durham Bulls, Hanson produced a three hit, seven strikeout performance while only allowing one earned run, his first of the season.

Unfortunately, that earned run was the difference-maker in the game as the G-Braves offense fell flat and, for the second night in a row, failed to produce a run.  Looks like offense struggles run a little deeper than just the big league squad at times.  Hanson’s sporting an 0-1 record now, after two solid outings, but Braves fans shouldn’t be concerned.  In 10 innings of work this season, the right-hander has struck out 17 and only given up 6 hits with an ERA of 0.90.  He’ll be just fine.

Look for Hanson to take the mound for the Gwinnett Braves in their home opener at the new stadium this Friday night against the Norfolk Tides.

Glavine to See Dr. Andrews On Shoulder

Tom Glavine was scratched from his AA Mississippi start yesterday with shoulder discomfort after just two innings. He was pulled throwing warmup pitches before the third as a precaution. Obviously this sets him back a little bit – but maybe more than originally thought. He’s scheduled to see Dr. James Andrews Tuesday morning in Birmingham, Alabama. Andrews performed the surgery on Glavine’s shoulder in August of last year and is famous for his proficency with sports surgeries.

Glavine was supposed to start for Atlanta on Saturday – but he won’t make it now. So, with their veteran pitcher down with an injury, the Braves have called up young pitching phenom… wait – Jo-Jo Reyes? Really? Yeah, Jo-Jo will come make the start on Saturday. The obvious thing here is that Jo-Jo is a left-hander and the Braves need a left-handed pitcher in their starting rotation. That said, there are a lot of people clamoring for the young and ridiculously talented Tommy Hanson, who struck out 10 of 13 in his first start at AAA Gwinnett.

There are arguments against using Hanson this early in the season – they want to keep him on a regular pitching schedule and get him his innings and a nice routine – they don’t want to start his arbitration clock yet – they want a lefty right now and Jo-Jo has more major league experience (is bad experience really better than no experience?)

What are your thoughts? Debate it. Is Jo-Jo Reyes (referred to affectionately as Blow-Blow by at least one of our staff) really the answer at this time? Should Tommy Hanson be brought up? Or is Jo-Jo the right call and Hanson needs a little more time to season before he’s ready to pitch?

Hanson, Heyward To Minors

Tommy Hanson won’t be starting the season in the major league rotation. He is headed to AAA Gwinnett along with Jo-Jo Reyes. First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfield prospect Jason Heyward were also sent to the minors, as was backup catcher Clint Sammons. There are three more names that will be announced today when the moves are made official.

Hanson has performed to his billing this spring – posting a 2.45 ERA and a 1-0 record in 4 appearances. He gave up 14 hits and 6 walks, along with 14 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings. Jo-Jo Reyes went 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA with nine hits and three walks allowed in 13 innings. We’ll see who comes up first, should injury come to the rotation – Hanson is the future of the organization but Reyes is left handed (and the Braves only have one lefty – Glavine – in the rotation). The downside to Reyes is that he’s been far less than impressive in the regular season in the bigs leagues. Maybe this is the year he breaks that trend, but I won’t be holding my breath.

Hanson will continue to impress for years to come. His visit to big league camp this year brought praise from the mouths of Chipper Jones and Bobby Cox – mouths that normally stay shut on the potential upside of prospects. We’ll see Hanson in Atlanta before the end of the season. He needs the innings he can get at AAA to finish developing before he comes a few miles south to help out at Turner Field.

Hanson and Heyward will head to their minor league homes after today’s game vs. the Blue Jays.

Braves Have Added More Than You Think

There has been plenty of buzz this spring about the new faces the Braves have added by way of trade and free agency. And rightly so. Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami, Javier Vazquez, and Garrett Anderson, among others, signify a major upgrade to last year’s injury depleted squad. But if you think these four players represent the only substantial improvements to the Atlanta roster… think again.

Unable to help the Braves much, if at all, in 2007 (because of injury, underperformance, or having not yet arrived in the big leagues), there are several bats and arms in the Braves’ camp that could have a substantial impact on the ’09 season.

EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PLAYERS COULD PROVE TO BE THE EQUIVALENT OF A SIGNIFICANT FREE AGENT SIGNING:

Rafael Soriano: Having spent the majority of last season on the disabled list with discomfort in his pitching elbow, Soriano now appears healthy and ready to help anchor the back end of the bullpen. Since moving to the ‘pen in his sophomore season with the Mariners, Soriano has a career ERA of about 2.50. When healthy, the hard-throwing righty is one of the top setup men in the game.

Peter Moylan: The submarine-tossing ‘Ausie’ posted the third best ERA (1.80) in baseball in 2007, over 90 innings pitched. After missing most of last season recovering from “Tommy John” surgery, Moylan’s rehabilitation is ahead of schedule, and he is expected to be ready on opening day. The return of Peter Moylan could give the Braves another dominant late-inning reliever to go with Soriano and closer, Mike Gonzalez.

Tom Glavine: The legendary lefty’s rehabilitation from off-season surgery (to repair his pitching arm) is on track, and Glavine is expected to make his first start, on schedule, in late April. In 2007, Glavine was fifth in the NL in quality starts with 23, and not coincidentally, he finished the season with 13 wins. If healthy enough to regain his ’07 form, baseball’s only active 300-game winner could once again notch double-digit wins for the Braves.

Tommy Hanson: Considered by many to be the top overall pitching prospect in baseball, Hanson this spring has given the Braves all the more reason to believe he’s ready to record outs in the big leagues. With an already fully staffed starting rotation, it appears that an injury to a Braves starter would be the only immediate path to the Atlanta’s 25-man roster. However, while not particularly likely, it is conceivable that the Braves might consider trading one of their starting pitchers at some point during the season, creating a Major League job opening for Hanson in ’09.

Tim Hudson: The Braves ace is currently ‘rehabbing’ from “Tommy John” surgery, and is believe to be on track for a late August or early September return. While the Braves certainly are not counting on Hudson in any way for the upcoming season, he could give this Braves team one more considerable weapon down the stretch.

Jeff Francoeur: After experiencing a season-long slump in ‘08 that saw him hit just .239 with only 11 homeruns, “Frenchy” is on a mission to (at least) regain his pre-2008 form. So far, so good. As of this writing, he is hitting .350 for the spring. He has just 1 strikeout in 40 at-bats, to go with 6 walks and 9 RBI. He is driving the ball to all fields and has shown nothing of his prior tendency (even in his better seasons) to swing at pitches well out of the strikezone. Replacing the ’08 model of Jeff Francoeur with the ’07 version – or better- would be tantamount to having inked a big free agent slugger over the winter.

Matt Diaz: Diaz lost much of his ‘08 season to a knee injury after getting off to a slow start as the Braves everyday left-fielder. But it should not be forgotten that he hit .333 in 655 combined at-bats in ’06 and ’07. While the addition of Garrett Anderson undoubtedly represents an upgrade to the Atlanta outfield, the return of a healthy and sharp Matt Diaz may prove every bit as valuable. Diaz is currently batting around .400 with 5 extra-base hits and 11 RBI in just over 40 at-bats this spring.

Jordan Schafer: One of the most heralded prospects in the Braves organization, Schafer appears ready to contribute at the Major League level. Despite frequent strikeouts, Schafer has hit nearly .400 so far this spring, and has demonstrated why he is considered a “5-tool” top-quality prospect. For a variety of reasons (NOT related to his spring performance), he may start the season at AAA, but don’t be surprised if Schafer makes a big league splash in 2009.

If the afore mentioned players are healthy and performing well (and so far this spring, all systems are “go”) the Braves will have essentially added the following for the 2009 season:

4 quality starting pitchers, including a #1 starter… 2 dominant late-inning relievers… 1 big middle-of-the-order bat, and at least 2 other quality hitters.

It’s also worth mentioning that the Braves expect better things from Mike Gonzalez (who is now entirely healthy/rested and back at “100%”), and Blaine Boyer, who won’t be overworked or prematurely thrust into late-inning duties, as he was last year. What’s more, Braves officials feel we haven’t seen the best of Yunnel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, or Casey Kotchman.

When you put it all together, we are looking at a Braves team that could surprise a great many people in 2009.  How do you feel about this team? What do you think about the pieces the Braves have added, both from without and within the organization?