Evaluating the Braves’ Deadline Move

The Trade

-Braves get Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth, and cash considerations reportedly worth around $2 million .

-Royals get Gregor Blanco, Jesse Chavez, minor league LHP Tim Collins

When evaluating a deadline move such as this there are three main points to analyze.

1) Did the team improve its chances of getting to the postseason/making it further into the playoffs? If so, by how much?

2) What did the team give up in the deal and was it worth it?

3) What are the financial ramifications from this trade in the coming years? Or in other words, does the trade affect Atlanta’s payroll in 2011 and beyond?

Of course the first two questions are subjective and can be answered in any number of ways. The third question attempts to answer if the trade restricts the organization’s ability to go out and sign free agents/draft picks in off-seasons to come.

1) Let’s start with the obvious. Replacing Jesse Chavez with Kyle Farnsworth is clearly an upgrade for the Atlanta pen. Of course we all remember an 18 inning game back in 2005 where Farnsworth gave up a game tying homerun to Brad Ausmus in the ninth, but he is clearly the better pitcher. The main point of debate centers around whether or not Rick Ankiel improves the Atlanta outfield, specifically in centerfield where he will be playing primarily. Simply put, is he better than Melky Cabrera/Gregor Blanco?

In Cabrera’s case it is not even close. He was a pretty awful hitter when Wren traded for him, and he seems to have gotten worse. Coming off of a career best season, in which he posted a pretty average .752 OPS (most likely thanks to Yankee Stadium), Melky has been nothing short of horrific at the plate this season for Atlanta. Neither are anything special defensively. UZR does give Melky the slight edge in centerfield defense but still shows that he is below average at fielding the position. Overall, Fangraphs calculates that Melky has been slightly worse than a replacement level player this season.

An argument could be made for Blanco over Ankiel, but that argument would likely overvalue his mere 66 plate appearances at the major league level this season. While Ankiel gets on base less often, his impressive power numbers make him more valuable to a Braves’ lineup that lacks pop and is currently 10th in NL slugging. Blanco has been much better defensively this season than in years past, but for his career has a UZR of exactly zero in CF, meaning that he is just average. Also, Blanco may have better speed but isn’t much of a base stealer. Ultimately it comes down to needs, and the Braves need power. Ankiel gives them an increase in that category.

The Braves got better but very marginally so. Bullpen depth helps, but Farnsworth may only add about twenty innings over the course of the next two months. Likewise, Ankiel is only a marginal upgrade over Blanco. Neither he nor Cabrera can hit lefties very well either, something the Braves’ lineup has struggled with. Either way the trade helps to counter the Oswalt move, slightly improving the teams’ chance of winning the NL East.

2) No tears will be shed over losing Jesse Chavez. Blanco may be missed by some, but he was already twenty-six years old and never showed the ability to be a valuable everyday starter in the major leagues. LHP Tim Collins is barely pushing 5’ 7’’, but he has been a strikeout machine in his minor league career. Minor league relievers, however, typically do not carry much value and giving Collins up to make the current team better (even barely) makes sense.

3) The $2 million sent to the Braves along with Ankiel and Farnsworth more than covers their 2011 option buyouts for next season. Ankiel’s option is a mutual one worth $6 million and will almost certainly be declined considering the Braves will have to pay Nate McLouth more than that next season as well. Farnsworth comes with a club option worth $5.25 million next season, and it will be interesting to see what Frank Wren decides to do with it. Either way, the trade does not restrict the Braves financially for 2011 and beyond.

This trade in no ways jeopardizes the Braves’ future while making the club at least somewhat better. If Ankiel can play passable defense in CF, the team will clearly be better off. If not, he should at least break even with his offense upgrade, and Farnsworth makes our bullpen stronger. The bottom line is that Wren did a good job helping the club when the market did not present him with a whole lot of options.

Now, let the debate begin.

Final Countdown To The Trade Deadline

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington discusses the possibility of another pre-deadline deal for the Atlanta Braves. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Will The Braves Make A Move At The Trade Deadline?

With the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline less than a week away, the Atlanta Braves have seemingly reached a stalemate with the market. A recent piece from the AJC’s Dave O’Brien highlighted the bevy of great pitching prospects in the Braves’ farm system, but it hardly made it seem as though Frank Wren is interested in including any of them (possibly with the exception of Mike Minor) in a deadline move. Without a doubt the Braves would love to upgrade in centerfield, but the only name out there right now is the Marlin’s Cody Ross. If the Braves could acquire Ross for virtually nothing (Jo-Jo Reyes-like prospects, cash, etc.) then they should do so. The only problem is that other teams, such as the Red Sox and Yankees, are reportedly inquiring about him as well. Ross is under team control for the 2011 season and would be a nice upgrade in center over anyone in the Braves’ organization, but he is obviously not worth getting into a bidding war over.

Beyond centerfield there are very few areas, if any, where the Braves are likely to upgrade. The team seems content, and justifiably so, with a Diaz/Hinske platoon in left which would be the only other position where the Braves would conceivably add a bat. In an ideal world the Braves would be able to go out and handpick a centerfielder to trade for, but this is simply not the case. Their offense is, for the most part, set in stone unless they acquire Ross from the Marlins.

Wren may explore adding bullpen depth but not much else. It would have been interesting had the Braves entered the Dan Haren sweepstakes using one of Vizcaino, Teheran, or Delgado as the centerpiece. Although their rotation has been strong this year, Haren would have made it significantly better come playoff time despite his struggles this season. As I am writing this, it has been reported that the Angels have acquired him by packaging Joe Saunders with two “eh” prospects and a player to be named later who is supposedly the centerpiece. Atlanta could have matched this package easily; the question is do you think they should have attempted to improve their rotation or keep their stockpile of young pitching talent intact?

Cody Ross to Atlanta? Could Happen. But Would He Help?

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington discusses recent developments that suggest the Braves have serious interest in Cody Ross of the Florida Marlins.  Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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As The Braves Approach The Trade Deadline…

In his latest “Fried Baseball” audio blog, Kent Covington takes an updated look at possible remaining trade targets and breaks down the performance of the red hot Matt Diaz. Throw in your 2 cents in the comments area below… or leave a message with your questions or comments for a future commentary at 888-669-5368 (ext.701.)

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Braves Trade Kotchman for Adam LaRoche

Adam LaRoche is coming home. LaRoche, who was just earlier this month traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox, has been swapped straight up for Casey Kotchman, it appears. If you’re wondering how this trade stacks up, it’s about a straight up deal, if that. Casey Kotchman hits for a higher average and has better defense, but LaRoche hits for more power and knocks in more runs. But he strikes out more than twice as much. Yes, seriously.

That said, the Braves want power. They want a little more pop in their lineup and LaRoche gives them that. He has to work on keeping the strikeouts down (he’s whiffed 83 times already this year, compared to Kotchman’s 28). LaRoche does walk a bit more, too.

The bottom line is that the Braves think LaRoche is a better fit and jumped on the opportunity to bring him back home. When he was with us before, he struck out less. He now gets to play with his old buds and hopefully provide some punch to the back of our lineup, which isn’t looking shabby now. Here’s a guestimated lineup, assuming everyone is healthy:

McLouth, Prado/Johnson, Chipper, McCann, Anderson, Escobar, Church/Diaz, LaRoche. Having someone on pace to hit around 20 homeruns is not a bad person to have in the 8 hole – especially if the guys before him are on base enough to give him RBI opportunities. Sure, he’s only hitting .248, but I’m choosing to stay on the positive side of this trade. I’ll leave the negative to someone else.

Kudos to Wren and Cox for going out and making a move that they believe makes this team better. They’ve been right so many times in the past when it looks like a wash – why should now be any different?

The Deadline Looms

Mark Teixeira may have been the most noteworthy move that the Braves will make before today’s 4pm trade deadline, but Frank Wren and the Braves organization still have some potential moves to make.  With Teixeira gone to the Angels in exchange for Casey Kotchman, it’s time to look more towards starting to rebuild the team for the 2009 season.  The Braves are in definite sell mode, so here are some quick highlights of the thoughts and rumors that are going around:

Will Ohman – The likelihood that Ohman makes it to the deadline as a Brave is pretty low.  There are a few teams interested in the relief he can provide, including the Cardinals who just happen to be in town.  How strange would it be to be traded to the visiting team while they were here?  Trading Ohman seems like one of Wren’s more likely moves today.

Mark Kotsay – I hadn’t really thought much about the Braves trading Kotsay, but Mark Bowman gives a 50% chance that he’ll be traded before the deadline.  Bowman also indicates that he may stick around until August.  I don’t really know what to think about this one either way.

Jason Bay – There has been some talk in the interest of acquiring Jason Bay from the Pirates, but with the talks going on between the Bucs and the Marlins/Red Sox, I don’t see much chance of this happening this season.  I could see an offseason move to help acquire a power-hitting outfielder. Update: The Pirates are still shopping Bay around to other teams but the Braves have not come up in talks. Update 2: Looks like Bay is going to the Red Sox in a trade that is sending Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers.

Starting Pitching - Don’t look for any moves on the starting pitching front today as Wren is more in sell mode to see what he can make out of our roster for the rest of the season.  Some names that have been tossed around for next year are possibly trying to obtain Sabathia, Sheets, or Lackey to help bolster the starting rotation.  With Hudson likely gone for part of next year.  This will be a big one to look out for for next year.

Completed NL East Trades:
Mark Teixiera to the Angels, Casey Kotchman and Stephen Marek to the Braves.
Gaby Hernandez to the Mariners, Arthur Rhodes to the Marlins.

There’s what I have time to throw out there right now, I will keep updating as the day goes on.  In the meantime, let us know the rumors you hear and the thoughts you have about the Braves at the trade deadline.

The Final Countdown: 10 Days to Trade

Coming off an ugly 15-6 (and series) defeat to the worst team in the NL East, the Braves are playing very ugly baseball while still on life support sitting six and a half games behind the first-place Mets and Phillies. Coming out of the break, this was the series to make a statement and unfortunately it was the wrong one. The Braves will now play thirteen consecutive games against teams with winning records (@FLA, @PHI, STL and MIL). They will now be challenged and if their play over the past month and a half is any indication, this is going to be a difficult stretch where 6-7 may be a winning scenario.

Monday means that ten days remain until the non-waiver trade deadline and it is certain that the Braves will receive national coverage for their position in trading slugger Mark Teixeira. While I feel that this team is still within reach of coming back, I think that the Braves may be forced into looking at moving Teixeira. There already was talk of a trade with Boston that would effectively swap first-basemen with Kevin Youkilis coming to Atlanta, but I do not see that trade coming back to life. The Braves would be smart to search for suitors on Teixeira now because he will be a free agent at the end of the season. While they will receive two supplemental picks for the loss of Teixeira, the lack of available bats at the deadline could mean that the Braves can pick up a lot more than the equivalent of two early round draft picks. They should be able to pick up a player that is major league ready and a couple of other mid-level prospects. For example, I can conceive a package of SP Justin Masterson or SP Clay Buchholz, 1B Chris Carter and another mid-level prospect from Boston and that would make a lot of sense for each team. Deals can come together in a matter of hours, so it may be Boston or a team that has not even been discussed yet with an attractive package to sell to the Braves for Teixeira.

I fear that the blame for the mess that the 2008 season has become has been placed mostly on injuries. While it certainly plays a part to the failure of the first-half, I am going to argue that some heat needs to be passed to the management of the team. This team was picked my many, including by myself, Peter Gammons and ESPN.com, to be World Series winners. The reason for that was the depth that the pitching and offense had. Generally speaking, the Braves offense and pitching continues to be successful of the 16 National league teams they are presently ranked 2nd in team ERA, 3rd in Team batting average and lead the league in hits allowed. It has just not come together for one reason or another. I criticize Frank Wren & co. for not making a single addition to effect the major league team since acquiring Greg Norton back in May for next to nothing (Brian Lawrence and Jorge Julio have been signed to minor league contracts). With a bench that lacks depth and punch, the front office needed to make a low cost move when things started to go south over a month ago and nothing was done. An example of a low cost pickup could have been Richie Sexson, now a Yankee, who could have been signed for the pro-rated major league minimum at around 200K for the remainder of the season. Immediately his power hitting ability would have been useful on a bench without power and at least his .218 batting average would have already been better than that of current Braves bench dwellers in Norton, Ruben Gotay and Corky Miller. The injuries have been devastating, but the lack of any move at all really has hurt this team and the depth on the bench.

Fortunately, baseball fans are familiar with “the comeback.” Braves fans can fondly remember the 2005 team that stormed its way to the NL East crown. Of course the 2007 season provided unforgettable comebacks by the Rockies and Phillies in the last week of the season. The Braves have the parts to contend and hopefully will be able to depending as to what happens in the next ten days. Now is the time to make or break the 2008 Braves season, we will have to wait and see if Frank Wren’s first move is big impact or silence.